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Dave Petley @davepetley.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

Heavy rainfall in Nepal since Thursday has triggered 285 landslides, leading to 15 fatalities with a further three people missing and three people injured. eos.org/thelandslide...

Recorded landslide incidents in Nepal in the period 24 to 28 September 2026, via the Bipad portal.

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Dave Petley @davepetley.bsky.social · 24/09/2026

A new paper (He et al. 2026) in the journal Landslides describes the breach of the massive Matai'an Rover landslide dam in Taiwan in September 2025, which killed 24 people. eos.org/thelandslide...

The aftermath of the Matai'an landslide dam breach. Image using images from Planet Labs, from He et al. (2025).

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Dave Petley @davepetley.bsky.social · 22/09/2026

In Japan, record breaking rainfall associated with Typhoon Dujuan has triggered at least six fatal landslides in the Kanto region:- eos.org/thelandslide... Image by James Reynolds / EarthUncutTV - www.youtube.com/earthuncuttv

A debris flow on Highway 34 near Kyonan Hota IC in Chiba triggered by Typhoon Dujuan. Image tweeted by James Reynolds.

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Dave Petley @davepetley.bsky.social · 21/09/2026

On Wednesday 7 October 2026 at 6 pm I will deliver my NTU inaugural lecture entitled “Landslides in a changing climate”. This is a public lecture, so please do come along. www.ntu.ac.uk/about-us/eve...

ntu.ac.uk

Professor Dave Petley's Inaugural Lecture

In this Inaugural Lecture, Professor Dave Petley, Vice-Chancellor and President of NTU, will examine the links between climate and landslides, drawing on examples from New Zealand, the Himalayas and t...

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Dave Petley @davepetley.bsky.social · 17/09/2026

It is so frustrating that the Guardian describes this as "the collapse of a glacier". The report itself is very specific on this issue: "While initially thought to be a glacier collapse, analysis of satellite imagery indicates that the event actually involved a large rock avalanche".

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Reposted by Dave Petley

Eos @eos.org · 16/09/2026

Have you been keeping up with @davepetley.bsky.social's coverage of the debris flow in Nepal and Tibet over in our Landslide Blog? Here's a roundup. ⬇️

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Dave Petley @davepetley.bsky.social · 16/09/2026

This is a gift link to the original paper (Wang et al. 2026) in the journal (Landslides):- rdcu.be/YfUaNyAVzQja

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Dave Petley @davepetley.bsky.social · 16/09/2026

A new paper in the journal Landslides (Wang et al. 2026) suggests that the bedrock failure that initiated the Nepal landslide disaster may have displayed measurable precursory deformation. eos.org/thelandslide...

Google Earth image from 2017 showing the site of the 26 August 2026 landslide in Nepal.

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Dave Petley @davepetley.bsky.social · 15/09/2026

"Snake Pass slips may top £100m, council says" www.bbc.co.uk/news/article... I suspect that a permanent solution to them all would be very considerably more than £100 million.

bbc.co.uk

Snake Pass landslips may top £100m, Derbyshire Councty Council says

Derbyshire County Council says the amount of money needed for repairs is "beyond our means".

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Reposted by Dave Petley

Ilan Kelman @ilankelman.bsky.social · 15/09/2026

Hazards Conference for geography students/teachers, England: -London, 11 Nov, www.kcmconferences.co.uk/events-detai... -Manchester, 16 Nov, www.kcmconferences.co.uk/events-detai... -Nottingham, 2 Dec, www.kcmconferences.co.uk/events-detai... @davepetley.bsky.social @proffionatweed.bsky.social #DRR

kcmconferences.co.uk

Hazards Conference (London) — KCM Events and Conferences

Plate Tectonics, Volcanoes, Earthquakes and more: this year's Hazards conferences are set to be the best yet!

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Reposted by Dave Petley

Heinrich Heinz @hkh621.bsky.social · 15/09/2026

Leafed through the book earlier today at GeoQuebec 2026. It looks fantastic.

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Dave Petley @davepetley.bsky.social · 15/09/2026

These are the links to the original pieces of work: 3-4 October 2023 GLOF in the Teesta Valley in India: savethehills.blogspot.com/2026/09/docu... 26 August 2026 landslide in Nepal and Tibet (via Facebook):- www.facebook.com/YILabNepal/p...

savethehills.blogspot.com

Documenting history: Google Earth Images of the Teesta Valley before and after the Oct 2023 GLOF disaster.

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Dave Petley @davepetley.bsky.social · 15/09/2026

Incredibly helpful updates have been posted online on both the 2026 Nepal-Tibet landslide and the 2023 Teesta Valley GLOF:- eos.org/thelandslide... These are two invaluable pieces of work by Praful Rao of Save The Hills in Darjeeling-Sikkim, India and the Youth Innovation Lab in Nepal.

Before and after image of the 2023 Teesta Valley GLOF, posted to the Save The Hills blog by Praful Rao.

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Dave Petley @davepetley.bsky.social · 14/09/2026

I was really surprised by our obvious lack of a plan after the red card. For the first few minutes they appeared to be in a daze. After the substitution, we seemed to have no real strategy. We have to be able to adapt in real time in the PL. At the moment, we show no sign of that.

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Dave Petley @davepetley.bsky.social · 14/09/2026

A new book, Understanding Landslides Through Case Studies by Serge Leroueil and Luciano Picarelli seeks to report and summarise contemporary knowledge on slope movements and mechanisms. eos.org/thelandslide...

eos.org

Understanding Landslides Through Case Studies

A new book, Understanding Landslides Through Case Studies by Serge Leroueil and Luciano Picarelli, has just been published

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Dave Petley @davepetley.bsky.social · 10/09/2026

Baroness Jacqui Smith (Minister of State) addressing the Universities UK annual conference here at NTU.

Jacqueline Smith addressing the UUK conference

Dave Petley @davepetley.bsky.social · 10/09/2026

How many people died? Why counting disaster fatalities is harder than it looks. An article first published on PreventionWeb by Lakshman Srikanth and myself. eos.org/thelandslide...

The aftermath of the Kashmir earthquake at Balakot.

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Dave Petley @davepetley.bsky.social · 07/09/2026

Sufficient satellite & drone imagery is now available to allow initial analysis of the landslide that started the 26 August 2026 debris flow in Nepal & Tibet. eos.org/thelandslide... This was a large failure with catastrophic impacts. But larger, more devastating, events have occurred in Nepal.

Planet Labs image from 28 August 2026 showing the aftermath of the 26 August 2026 landslide in Nepal. Image via Watanave Lab.

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Imagine it though - it would integrate satellite radar and pixel tracking; seismic data; in situ monitoring; optical data, etc. It would examine mechanisms, failure signatures, data synthesis, analysis, communication, protocols, warnings and responses. It could be game changing.

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The payback could be massive. But the sort of warnings that have been discussed in the aftermath of the Nepal-Tibet landslide are only going to be possible with investment on that scale.

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I am hugely in favour of this. I would love to see it - a ten year effort involving hundreds of researchers backed by a US$billion international funding stream. The aim would be a monitoring and warning system covering all the world's high mountains. It could save many lives and huge sums of money.

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It is a huge jump from identifying that the slope was moving to providing a useful forecast or warning. The latter might be possible, but it needs a massive multinational research effort - the earth sciences equivalent of the large hadron collider, if you like.

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To be useful, movement ahead of a major failure needs a distinct signature that can be easily detected, can be interpreted quickly and that is reliable. It must exclude non-dangerous movements (which is the vast majority) and it has to be trusted.

Dave Petley @davepetley.bsky.social · 03/09/2026

This sort of thing worries me. Yes, it may have been moving, but: a. How do you know it was precursory movement rather than (say) episodic creep? b. InSAR tells us that many slopes move a lot. Only a few fail in a given year. How do you tell which are dangerous? c. How do you avoid false positives?

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And an Argentinian government official has claimed that it was caused by construction failure in a Chinese hydroelectric power project. Given that satelite imagery is freely available of the site, how does this nonsense gain traction?

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Dave Petley @davepetley.bsky.social · 03/09/2026

Rumours are now circulating online that the #Nepal #landslide disaster was triggered by a missile fired by China at a dam. This sort of nonsense is so very unhelpful.

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Dave Petley @davepetley.bsky.social · 02/09/2026

"The Best Donuts" on the waterfront in San Diego.

Dave Petley @davepetley.bsky.social · 02/09/2026

Nothing better emphasises the quality of authentic donuts than signs made with #AI (in San Diego). #AIslop

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Reposted by Dave Petley

Bethan Davies @iceybethan.bsky.social · 29/08/2026

One other factor to consider is the role of debuttressing - the glacier was formerly much larger but has receded substantially in recent decades, which could be a contributing factor

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I don't think that people like to be told things by scientists that are factually incorrect, even if that has been the norm. I use buoyancy as a way into concepts of reducing friction through water pressure. In my experience, non-specialist audiences have no problem with following that as a concept

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I don't disagree that thaw and/or high pore water pressures may have played a role. What is not correct is to infer that the shape of this rear scarp means that it did. There are other potential explanations, such as toe erosion, loading or progressive failure. A proper study is needed.

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It is, but lubrication is simply incorrect. This is not the way to explain science to the public.

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I don't know. The drone footage does seem to show vegetation (see image). Does the video match the image below, which shows the lake? I'm really unsure as to who would have been on site to be able to capture this video though.

Drone image of the aftermath of the Nepal-Tibet landslide.

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Exactly. The role of water is not to change shear stress or to lubricate - it's role is to change normal effective stress. I'll be interested to understand the causes and trigger mechanisms for this one. I suspect that it's complex. The InSAR will be interesting and may be revealing.

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The 17 September 2022 rock avalanche at Lamplugh Glacier

Large rockslope failures in the high mountains are really not unusual. See for example:- blogs.agu.org/landslideblo... Or this one that happened in Alaska in December 2016 (and was surely fully frozen?): blogs.agu.org/landslideblo... Many may be linked to thawing, but certainly not all.

blogs.agu.org

On 17 September 2022a large rock avalanche developed from the collapse of a rock slope at Lamplugh Glacier in Alaska

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And water is not a lubricant in this system, it changes the effective normal stress (think buoyancy not lubrication).

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