Sign in

Eric Maugendre

@data.yt
290 followers 397 following 569 posts

Data scientist; researching future climate policy. I calculate how to avoid much carbon emissions: data.yt Banner is a directed acyclic graph. Avatar shows a white man in a heatwave.

PostsRepliesMedia
Eric Maugendre @data.yt · 23h
In Indonesia, palm oil plantations replace forests. Google Maps has not completely updated its display:
A patch of dark green show current woodland.
Image tiles of light green show past woodland.
The majority of the satellite image is barren land (palm plantations after harvest).

https://www.google.com/maps/@-7.9231154,140.7381203,3682m/data=!3m1!1e3?entry=ttu&g_ep=EgoyMDI2MDkyNy4xIKXMDSoASAFQAw%3D%3D
001
Eric Maugendre @data.yt · 27/09/2026
Passive rewilding refers to *actively unmanaged* environments that are allowed to regain natural dominance, typically after their abandonment. 🧵 Sometimes referred to as "natural regeneration", it differs from other forms of rewilding in that direct human management or intervention is absent.
Abandoned railroad platforms of the Central Railroad of New Jersey Terminal, United States.
It lies just west of Battery Park, Manhattan, NYC.

Abandoned railroad platforms of the Central Railroad of New Jersey Terminal, United States.
It lies just west of Battery Park, Manhattan, NYC.

Post and picture from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Passive_rewilding CC BY-SA 4.0
002
Eric Maugendre @data.yt · 26/09/2026
"Directed Acyclic Graphs (DAGs) and Regression for Causal Inference" An easy walk-through by Susan Alber (2022): health.ucdavis.edu/media-resour...
[DAG] skin cancer is caused by age and sunburn (via moving to Florida)
110
Eric Maugendre @data.yt · 26/09/2026
"Mediators, confounders, colliders – a crash course in causal inference", by @florianhartig.bsky.social (2019): theoreticalecology.wordpress.com/2019/04/14/m... 🧵 #policy #intervention #graphs #causality #causalInference #stats #statistics #counterFactuals #probabilities #ecology #confounding
Confounding: Smoking is upstream of Exercise and Lung cancer
Mediation: Immune function sits in between Exercise and Lung cancer

from Florian Hartig at https://theoreticalecology.wordpress.com/2019/04/14/mediators-confounders-colliders-a-crash-course-in-causal-inference/
100
Eric Maugendre @data.yt · 21/09/2026
"Concurrent heatwaves in major wheat producers significantly reduce production and exports, particularly in predominantly rainfed countries." @elisabethclimate.bsky.social, @zscheischlerjak.bsky.social et al. (2026). doi.org/10.1088/1748... #hunger #compounding #droughts #heatwaves #shortage
Top wheat producers and exporters
(a), (b) Top wheat producers (a) and exporters (b) that accounted for more than 80% of the world’s wheat production and exports, respectively, over 1992–2022.
The size of each circle segment is proportional to a country’s production (a) or export (b) share over 1992–2022 (in %).
000
Eric Maugendre @data.yt · 20/09/2026
… In most of Spain & France, "the soil moisture index reaches 0% in the first 9 cm. Surface horizons are completely dried out, making germination and emergence conditions particularly unfavourable." — @sergezaka.bsky.social Soil is bone dry. So the few baby plants that may raise will remain puny. …
Water availability in the soil from -3 to -9 cm as forecast for 22nd September 2026
The soil is bone dry from Tanger to Devon and Frankfurt.
(c) Agroclimat2050
120
Eric Maugendre @data.yt · 20/09/2026
… Now is the time to seed the "winter" crops. No rain is expected. So seedlings are not often going to sprout. …
Expect no rain from Morocco to Southern England, nor in the Middle East in September 2026.
Total accumulated precipitation forecast in 20–26 September 2026
https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/medium-rain-acc?base_time=202609200600&projection=opencharts_europe&valid_time=202609260600
110
Eric Maugendre @data.yt · 20/09/2026
Agricultural production this summer was very difficult. The next crops may not be expected in Europe. Why is that? 🧵
The seas around Europe are abnormally hot except from Galicia to Western Sahara.
Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly on 2026-09-19 12:00 UTC
https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/ocean/surface/currents/overlay=sea_surface_temp_anomaly/orthographic=7.17,52.77,657
101
Eric Maugendre @data.yt · 20/09/2026
We must understand your projections because they come from solid inference. Conveniently your projections also come with guidance for a transition policy: mas.to/@maugendre/1...
[by] Eric Maugendre about carbon
@maugendre@mas.to

We could have strategic, coordinated, transformative "state-led electrification for energy sovereignty", and a life-improving "green social bargain".

"The experience of successful developmental states—from the East Asian tigers to contemporary China—teaches us that transformative industrial policy delivers where it is accompanied by coercive credit policy, where the state steers transformative investment through credit and equity flows."

Reference: https://www.phenomenalworld.org/analysis/against-carbon-shock-therapy/
000
Eric Maugendre @data.yt · 20/09/2026
… I discovered all the points of the two previous posts only thanks to Rishika Pardikar @rishpardikar.bsky.social.
[by] Eric Maugendre about carbon
@maugendre@mas.to

In an interview with state-owned magazine #China Newsweek, climate envoy Liu Zhenmin said in response to a question about China’s #climate #leadership that the calls are just “the west giving us a ‘tall hat’” – an expression meaning trying to flatter China.
https://www.163.com/d-y/article/JI8ADU9A0514BE2Q.html reported by Anika Patel for CarbonBrief.

“When many people pass one way, a road is made.” – Lu Xun

China has specific commitments: https://www.break-down.org/an-accidental-climate-revolution/ by Iza Ding, Deborah Seligsohn

I discovered all the points above only thanks to Rishika Pardikar @rishpardikar.bsky.social
120
Eric Maugendre @data.yt · 19/09/2026
"A new attribution technique [suggests] the ongoing multidecadal drought in the western United States can be largely attributed to human activity through externally forced changes." Klavans et al "Human emissions drive recent trends in North Pacific climate variations" (2025) doi.org/10.1038/s415...
Since 1999, the Pacific jet stream (blue arrow) moves north, diverting wet weather patterns out of the US Southwest and making drought more likely there.
Chart from https://www.sciencenews.org/article/united-states-megadrought-climate
000
Eric Maugendre @data.yt · 19/09/2026
"Explainer: How the ‘super El Niño’ will reshape the world’s weather": interactive.carbonbrief.org/el-nino-expl... #ENSO #ElNiño #typhoons #hurricanes #California #Arizona #Mexico #Japan #weather
El Niño: Tropical storms

During El Niño, the weakening of trade winds causes warm water from the western Pacific to shift eastwards. This also shifts the area of tropical storm formation to the east.
In Asia, the eastward shift means that tropical storms – known as typhoons in this region – are less likely to move towards the Philippines and are instead more likely to affect China, Japan and South Korea.
Because of the eastward shift, typhoons typically have longer to travel before making landfall. This gives them more time to gather heat and moisture, increasing their chances of becoming major, destructive storms.
101
Eric Maugendre @data.yt · 19/09/2026
Breathing pollution from #wildfires is worse in Indonesia than it was in Northern America around the 26th August 2026. There are more aerosols on a daily basis. The big amount of aerosols is being emitted for months.
Breathing pollution from wildfires is worse in Indonesia than in Africa.
The period is 21st August to 17th September 2026.
You can play at https://apps.atmosphere.copernicus.eu/fire-emissions-watch/?d1=2026-08-21&d2=2026-09-17&tilt=0&t=2026-09-18T00
110
Eric Maugendre @data.yt · 14/09/2026
"Is it possible to ease human suffering, protect nature, and address climate change with existing resources? Yes": drawdown.org/news/interna... by @maryhoff.bsky.social "A people-first approach to achieving global climate and nature goals" Paper by @paul-west.bsky.social, et al. (2025):
Improving the quality of life for everyone, biodiversity loss, and climate change are interwoven problems with numerous complementary solutions. Unfortunately, a tendency to frame sustainable development as a “co-benefit” of efforts to solve the other two has been alienating and ineffective in advancing mutually beneficial solutions. We propose an alternative—identify and prioritize place-based solutions that meet people’s needs while benefiting nature and climate—and explore why this approach is key to garnering support, producing lasting results, and maximizing overall benefit.
121
Eric Maugendre @data.yt · 01/09/2026
Most striking is the steep and steady rise of solar and wind energies. It disappoints twice: 1. Solar and wind had made no impact on the stability of the consumption of coal, oil or gas. 2. Solar and wind make no impact on the stability of emissions of greenhouse gases.
Renewables show no impact on GHG emissions
Two curves of Solar and Wind energy shoot to the sky while five curves of CO2-equivalent emissions grow steadily.
110
Eric Maugendre @data.yt · 01/09/2026
We agree that renewables are growing faster than energy demand but what follows is fallacy: "As long as this goes on for a decade or two more, then fossil fuels will, by simple arithmetic, be forced into retreat". Graph is in %s, which hides that energy keeps growing, energy sources keep being added
Global share of power generation by source 1985 - 2025. An obvious logistic curve has emerged. Sources Liebreich Associates, IEA, BP, World Bank
100
Eric Maugendre @data.yt · 31/08/2026
"As heat engines grew more efficient, humanity consumed more fossil fuels." @blairfix.bsky.social wrote about efficiency as a catalyst for technological sprawl: economicsfromthetopdown.com/2024/05/18/a...
As heat engines grew more efficient, humanity consumed more fossil fuels - by Blair Fix.png
As heat engines grew more efficient, humanity consumed more fossil fuels.
Statistics show a fairly stable correlation from 1700 to 2000.
A chart by Blair Fix: "The horizontal axis has the trend in heat-engine efficiency. The vertical axis shows the world’s fossil fuel use per capita. Note that both axes use a log scale."
143
Eric Maugendre @data.yt · 24/08/2026
… "Super El Niño to hit major cities across Asia and Africa, disrupting livelihoods, economies and global supply chains, new WaterAid research warns" www.wateraid.org/ca/super-el-...
Map of South and Southeast Asian cities by population overlain with the expected El Niño impacts for each location
101
Eric Maugendre @data.yt · 21/08/2026
”When our rewilding program started, many big corporations offered us huge amounts of money if we certified carbon credits. We consulted with communities. But our answer was that we don’t sell nature.”
A tree plantation being restored to peatland-swamp in Finland, Kauhaneva

Ref: https://e360.yale.edu/features/tero-mustonen-interview
100
Eric Maugendre @data.yt · 21/08/2026
“By reconnecting rivers with the surrounding area and creating natural sponges in the landscape, we’ve created a system that stores water during drought, keeping wetlands and the surrounding habitats healthy, & slows water during storms and extreme rainfall, helping to protect villages from” floods.
A stream winds through fields on the Holnicote estate. The rewilding projects help ‘store water during drought… and slow water during extreme rainfall’. Photograph Steve Sayers, National Trust Images

“Nature is providing solutions to some of the biggest challenges facing society today,” said Ben Eardley, the project manager at the Holnicote estate. “For generations as a nation we’ve drained wetlands, straightened rivers and moved water off the land as quickly as possible. Here, we’ve reversed that approach and the results are remarkable.

“By reconnecting river systems with the surrounding area and creating natural sponges in the landscape, we’ve created a system that stores water during drought, keeping wetlands and the surrounding habitats healthy, and slows water during storms and periods of extreme rainfall, helping to protect villages from the risk of flooding downstream.”

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2026/aug/21/somerset-rewilding-holnicote-estate-wetlands-rivers-resilience
111
Eric Maugendre @data.yt · 21/08/2026
#Deforestation (continued) "Changes in forest areas are highly uncertain. Regional change in forest areas since 1850" Excerpt from Michael O'Sullivan et al. (2025). "An improved approach to estimate the natural land carbon sink" doi.org/10.21203/rs....
Changes in forest areas are highly uncertain. Regional change in forest areas since 1850 from reconstructions (Houghton, LUH2) and simulated by seven Dynamic Global Vegetation Models

Excerpt from Michael O'Sullivan et al. (2025). "An improved approach to estimate the natural land carbon sink" https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-7207206/v2
100
Eric Maugendre @data.yt · 18/08/2026
… The World Bank wishes for more investment in methane gas infrastructure. 🔥 The World Bank cites the USA as progress. The language is deliberate:
World Bank HIGHLIGHTS
• A missed opportunity of historic scale. The 167 bcm of gas flared in 2025 exceeds the volume of LNG (liquified natural gas) that transited the Persian Gulf last year; a resource large enough to equal the gas consumption of Africa, yet burned without benefit.
• The economics demand action. The gas wasted in 2025 was worth an estimated US$54 billion. Eliminating routine flaring globally would require US$70–100 billion in upfront investment, roughly twice what is currently being lost each year. Yet despite the tools needed to end routine flaring being well established, it persists; what holds back progress is not technical but structural — inadequate regulation, insufficient capital, limited market infrastructure, and a failure by operators and governments to treat reduction as a priority.
• Progress is possible. Kazakhstan has cut flaring by 87 percent since 2012, and the United States made the largest absolute reduction of any country in 2025. Proven solutions exist. What is needed is the commitment to deploy them.

Excerpt from https://www.worldbank.org/en/programs/gasflaringreduction/publication/2026-global-gas-flaring-tracker-report
012
Eric Maugendre @data.yt · 18/08/2026
"Flaring is a way to get rid of gases such as methane that arise when pumping oil out of the ground." 🔥 About the July 2025 World Bank's GFMR report: www.theguardian.com/environment/... To show the problem, the World Bank pictures black persons: www.worldbank.org/en/programs/...
World Bank GFMR 2026 report shows black people actively preparing methane gas flaring.
100
Eric Maugendre @data.yt · 10/08/2026
"Uncertainties in future food security will remain large." "10 models show climate outcomes at a 2 °C warming that are well beyond the multimodel mean at 4 °C." @bevacquae.bsky.social, @erichfischer.bsky.social, @janasillmann.bsky.social, @zscheischlerjak.bsky.social doi.org/10.1038/s415...
Extreme climate outcomes for droughts across breadbaskets worldwide

"The considered breadbaskets cover most of the global maize, wheat, soybean and rice productions."

a, Multimodel mean of the projected frequency of annual soil moisture droughts in a 2 °C warmer world relative to preindustrial conditions (1851–1900), that is, ΔDrought frequency.

b, Left orange bar: the global climatic impact-driver f used to identify climate outcomes, that is, ΔDrought frequency averaged over global breadbasket regions (areas shown in c), computed for individual climate models in a 2 °C world (the black thick line shows the multimodel mean).
100
Eric Maugendre @data.yt · 09/08/2026
From #Ireland Land Use Review latest report: “sustainable land use requires very significant change”. Journalist: "Agriculture is the main polluter of waterways, half of which fail to meet minimum environmental standards. "It is responsible for 38 per cent of national emissions." archive.ph/Al4qw
Extra land demands / hectares by 2030
Biggest are:
biomethane (130,000)
tillage (70,000)
forestry (60,000)
102
Eric Maugendre @data.yt · 05/08/2026
We may tackle a problem from at least two ends: • Zero soil artificialisation and concrete makers to learn transformation of offices into housing; • Sale of petrol vehicles and fossil exploration can be prohibited; • No more ads for animal products and cattle farmers redeploy to legume production; …
A train compartment with a bag sat on the centre table. Through the window, you can see a local sign; it reads "Overton".

Photo by https://bsky.app/profile/rayburnmaarup.bsky.social
110
Eric Maugendre @data.yt · 04/08/2026
Climate forcing: some activities force the climate to drift. Forcing activities include fossil energies, mining, bovine husbandry, tree plantations, etc. 🧵
A methane gas burner heats a pan.
113
Eric Maugendre @data.yt · 01/08/2026
Very extreme risks of fire in England, Belgium and across France and the Alpine arc extending into northern Italy #wildfires #risks #forecast #England #France #Belgium #Belgique
Median Fire Weather Index (FWI) anomaly map. Anomalies are computed as a standard deviation from the 30-year historical mean. (© EU, 2026. Licensed under CC BY 4.0. Source: EU Forest Fires Information System (EFFIS), Copernicus Emergency Management Service).

Fire danger forecast between 29 July and 5 August:
Very extreme conditions dominate a large area of western and central Europe, with the heaviest concentration in England and across France and the Alpine arc extending into northern Italy.
Extreme conditions surround these areas, covering the wider Iberian Peninsula, the Balkans, and parts of North Africa.

https://joint-research-centre.ec.europa.eu/projects-and-activities/natural-and-man-made-hazards/forest-fires/current-wildfire-situation-europe_en
123
Eric Maugendre @data.yt · 26/07/2026
Consequence paths of CO₂ #emissions from land use change and fires: (Mining [not shown in chart],) climate change and forest management contribute to forest degradation and wildfires; which in turn force the greenhouse effect. #feedbacks #GreenhouseForcing #carbon #CDR #DAG
Consequence paths of CO₂ emissions from land use change and fires:
(Mining [not shown in chart],) climate change and forest management contribute to forest degradation and wildfires; which in turn force the greenhouse effect.
101
Eric Maugendre @data.yt · 23/07/2026
Please forgive my ignorance on administrative matters. Would it be interesting to push for having some NPs converted to another status such as SSSIs or National Nature Reserves?
a map of SSIs in Wales
100
Eric Maugendre @data.yt · 22/07/2026
Temperate #forests store more carbon in the ground than above ground. Mean #carbon storage in China's forest ecosystems was 25.8% for aboveground biomass, 5.9% for belowground biomass, 2.1% for dead mass, and 66.2% for soil organic C in the 0–100 cm soil layer. Peng et al. doi.org/10.1002/ece3...
a river across the Desert Poplar Forest, Luntai County, Xinjiang Province

The poplar trees live for three thousand years and don’t fall down for three thousand years after they die. When they fall, they still don’t decompose for another three thousand years. Poplars grow steadily in this region due to their unique hardy nature. Luntai County in the Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region is located along the southern side of Tianshan and along the north of the Tarim Basin. This area is home to the world’s largest, most densely distributed, and best surviving “Tertiary Period Living Fossils.” Luxuriant trees stand shoulder to shoulder with branches interlocked to form the unique scenery.
101
Eric Maugendre @data.yt · 19/07/2026
Cold blobs significantly increase #heatwave duration and magnitude in Europe. The subpolar North Atlantic region is very relevant for European summer conditions, but is marked by large biases in current coupled climate model simulations. @sabinebischof.bsky.social et al. doi.org/10.1029/2023...
Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly during the second European heatwave this year. A green circle points at an ocean location 7°C below normal.
100
Eric Maugendre @data.yt · 18/07/2026
El Niño and climate change may be locked into a vicious climate cycle. Global heating amplifies the impacts associated with super El Niños & “makes the climate system more prone to persistent shifts once those impacts are triggered.” Read @bberwyn.bsky.social: insideclimatenews.org/news/2504202...
The chart shows the 'Temperature Ratchet' effect that El Niño has on global temperatures. Each significant event leaves a residual impact of up to +0.2°C...

THE 12-MONTH OUTLOOK
The NOAA CPC probabilities indicate a dramatic shift towards El Niño conditions. While June sees an 84% chance of neutral ENSO, July has an 82% chance of El Niño, rising to 98% by August, September, October, November, and December. The CNN/SNU forecast reinforces this, predicting Niño 3.4 anomalies reaching +3.02°C by December 2026. The most dramatic shift is expected in the 3rd quarter of 2026, with strong El Niño conditions becoming highly probable, significantly influencing global weather patterns.

from https://4billionyearson.org/climate/symphony
111
Eric Maugendre @data.yt · 18/07/2026
The weathers, they are a-changing. We can make sense of pattern evolution. I am starting a thread about Europe's new #climate conditions. 🧵 (You may read stories in the "ALT" descriptions.)
The chart is temperatures plotted against years (from 1940 to 2026).
It graphs temperatures averaged over four weeks in European France since 1940 [the month Pétain made his first broadcast to the French people].
A curve in red is made from statistical regression (loess method: smoothness determined with cross-validation) to build a statistical central trend.

We may look at the difference between monthly index and trend:
The red point represents the average of mid-June to mid-July 2026. Its high position is not absurd: it shows within the distribution of variability around the trend.
June 1976 and 2003 were outliers, "black swan" like, events: June and mid-June to mid-July 2003 were 3.7 °C away from the trend, when 2026 June is only 1.7°C.
The same kind of extreme period this year would have shown an average at 2°C more.

The calculations and graph were made by Denis Mongin‬ ‪@denismongin.bsky.social‬
The above comments were built from his. Below comments come from me.

Incidently you may note that 2022 was the year the French President said "Mais qui aurait pu prédire ?" and the monthly index exactly is at the trend curve.

Data was mangled by averaging over the month. This has the benefit of showcasing a general enhancement: across the country, day and night.
Data was uploaded from weather stations located in Europe. The method was chosen by the national weather service.
The method purposely excludes weather stations located in France but not in Europe – such as Guyane, a territory neighbour to the Amazon basin.

Florent Malouda was born in Guyane. He is one of the greatest wingers in the history of the Chelsea football club. Malouda represented the France national football team on 80 occasions from 2004 to 2012.

Among the players selected for the 2026 FIFA World Cup is Mike Maignan. He plays as the goalkeeper for and captains Serie A club AC Milan. Mike Maignan was born in French Guiana, to a Haitian mother and a Guadeloupean father.
233
Eric Maugendre @data.yt · 17/07/2026
Temperate "forests with a mix of mycorrhizal fungal types are more efficient in taking up nitrogen, investing less carbon overall to their fungal partners." @siyashao.bsky.social, Zachary Shortt, @bsulman.bsky.social, Caitlin Hicks Pries (2025). doi.org/10.1029/2025... #forests #soil #CCS #carbon
"The model echoed previous work in suggesting that increasing the abundance of soil nitrogen, for example, through fertilizer runoff, decreases the dependence of plants on mycorrhizal fungi and therefore reduces the amount of carbon plants allocate to their microbial counterparts. But in contrast to previous studies, these researchers found that rising soil temperatures had the same effect of reducing the amount of nitrogen and carbon exchanged by fungi and plants. That’s because warmth accelerates the breakdown of organic material, which releases nitrogen. Increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide levels, on the other hand, will likely increase the reliance of plants on mycorrhizal fungi by increasing the growth rate of plants and therefore increasing their need for nutrients."

From Saima May Sidik (2025), How plant-fungi friendships are changing, Eos, 106, https://doi.org/10.1029/2025EO250397
110
Eric Maugendre @data.yt · 16/07/2026
#Soil organic matter is discontinuous.
"Significance
Soils contain the largest pool of organic carbon near the surface of the Earth and represent a natural carbon sink that helps to buffer against anthropogenic carbon emissions and land-use changes. Despite this, little is known regarding the molecular-level mechanisms of soil organic carbon recalcitrance. In the present study, we explore one of the key phenomena hypothesized to explain the stability of organic carbon in soils, namely mineral-associated organic matter. Using enhanced-sampling molecular dynamics simulations, we show that soil organic matter can be stabilized through a variety of mineral–organic interactions and through the intercession of organic–organic interactions."

Thomas R. Underwood, Ian C. Bourg, Kevin M. Rosso (2024). https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2413216121
220
Eric Maugendre @data.yt · 16/07/2026
‪@avnimalh0tra.bsky.social‬, @sophievf.bsky.social, Your work is so important! I am still venerating the pair of caption #2 and multidimensional graph. It has beauty and clarity on a matter in which i would had deemed them impossible!
"Representativeness of soil databases (colored dots) superimposed on the global soil bioclimatic multivariate space (gray dots). The multivariate space consists of mean annual temperature (MAT), mean annual precipitation (MAP), gross primary productivity (GPP) and potential evapotranspiration (PET) from soil pixels globally. Databases are organized into the three process-relevant categories listed in Fig. 1, namely current stocks and fluxes (green), mechanistic drivers (purple) and future gain/loss potential (pink)."

Malhotra, A., von Fromm, S.F., Bond-Lamberty, B. et al. (2026). "Do we have globally representative data to understand soil processes?". Biogeochemistry 169, 23 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10533-025-01301-z
000
Eric Maugendre @data.yt · 15/07/2026
It is very nicely encapsulated @alevermann.bsky.social. Complete with the mandatory mention of fossil phase-out 🙂 Below is the causal premise of my next study on land-use change. You may note that estimates of emissions increase with time:
Causal paths of emissions from land use change and fires.

There is a feedback loop: emissions make concentrations increase, which forces climate, which makes emissions increase.
000
Eric Maugendre @data.yt · 14/07/2026
(I grew nearby.) In Brittany, drivers are known to be often more careful and civil than in the rest of the Hexagone. The landscapes and road designs are similar all over Brittany down to Nantes. It took about forty years to cover the whole region. What prevents Ireland from starting?
Metropolitan France Hexagone
141
Eric Maugendre @data.yt · 07/07/2026
Surface water south of Greenland is about 2°C lower than normal. The North Atlantic jet stream routes around the #ColdBlob and conveys southern air to Western Europe. We have a pattern of #heatwaves for this summer. You may learn how #weather works by playing: earth.nullschool.net#2026/06/18/1...
Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly during the second European heatwave this year; pointing at an ocean location 7°C below normal
123
Eric Maugendre @data.yt · 04/07/2026
excerpt from @chandrakants.bsky.social & U. Martin Persson (2026). doi.org/10.1038/s430... Spatial patterns of major deforestation-risk commodities:
Spatial patterns of major deforestation-risk commodities (aggregated for 2018–2022)
In decreasing order: Brazil, DRC, China.

excerpt from Chandrakant Singh & U. Martin Persson (2026). https://doi.org/10.1038/s43016-026-01305-4
111
Eric Maugendre @data.yt · 29/06/2026
Climate change impacts ecosystems and makes some of them emit more carbon gas. 🧵 Below is incremental heating that would come on top of activity-induced warming. Beware that the ridge is entirely plausible: σ is a measure of the uncertainty; σ is way smaller that the extent of uncertainty:
"Stacked WIE-induced warming for
(a), SSP1-2.6,
(b), SSP2-4.5, and
(c), SSP4-6.0, split by permafrost (gray), wildfire (brown), freshwater (pink), and wetlands (green).
CH4 contributions are shown with cross-hatching, while CO2 contributions are shown with circular hatching. (d), Total WIE-induced warming for SSP1-2.6 (blue), SSP2-4.5 (orange), and SSP4-6.0 (red), with shading showing ±1 standard deviation, propagated from emission sensitivity uncertainty and climate response uncertainty added in quadrature. All WIE-induced warming is relative to a 2020 baseline."

excerpt from Sam Abernethy et al. (2026). https://doi.org/10.22541/essoar.15002332/v1
101
Eric Maugendre @data.yt · 26/06/2026
This message was witty enough 🙂 I have accepted to delay attempts at being ingenious until after the current heatwave 🙂
Exhausted people at a public fountain.
A white lady in sunglasses and bermudas presents a newspaper frontpage that states "The Climate Issue"
A hunched man in bermudas and sandals answers: "It's too hot for realization".
010
Eric Maugendre @data.yt · 21/06/2026
Study: methane gas emissions would be reduced by about 20 % in ten years if stopping bovine livestock. A climate policy could be to generalize the current practice of turning male calves into steers. doi.org/10.5281/zeno...
Lines of moderate ascend plus a spillway curve from above 170,000 to above 120,000 Gg CH₄/year. In ten years, methane emissions from agriculture activities are cut in two if bovine stop.

Figure shows methane emissions at a slight trough in 2027. The dent in methane emissions is due to a disruption in the delivery of fossil fuels from March 2026 (itself due to the Persian Gulf production being put offline by war).

Figure also shows curves of moderate ascend, drifted from current emissions, current activities, technical promises. Each year, the CH₄ production is similar in cases "CH₄ drift", "as usual", "tech potential", "factory cap". You could say that mitigation only goes so far.

Bovine stop would be a dramatic policy. It has its contribution fall from full to null over time. The figure shows a spillway curve falling by 60 Tg CH₄/year: emissions would diverge if bovine husbandry was curtailed.

After ten years of intervention, methane emissions from all activities if bovine stop would be 80 % of methane emissions from all activities if no intervention. We can see that bovine cessation would bring a throughput abatement of almost 80 Tg/year in ten years. This amount can be represented at 20 % of all methane emissions from activities if they are forecast at 400 Tg.
074
Eric Maugendre @data.yt · 19/06/2026
'Capital' is not money. It is the expectation of obtaining later money from an 'asset'. An 'asset' is a labeled balance-sheet entry – backed against a factory, a flat, a patent, a software (or a combination). Household #wealth mostly accrues from 'asset' creation and 'asset' revaluation:
The four drivers sump up to wealth creation cumulated.
They are:
• investment,
• bank lending,
• (in majority) "holding gains", also known as “capital revaluation”
• "government deficit spending": putting money into private-sector bank accounts.

More explanations at https://wealtheconomics.substack.com/p/where-assets-and-money-come-from
100
Eric Maugendre @data.yt · 19/06/2026
Saving (ie. revenues minus spending) does not even come close to explaining the accumulation of household wealth (ie. "assets" and net worth). 🧵
The graph shows that net worth grows much more than savings.
Data is of households and nonprofits in the USA from 1965 to 2025.
Conclusion: Saving does not explain wealth accumulation.

A Federal Reserve graph shows Households and Nonprofit Organizations; Net Saving barely increasing in comparison to Households and Nonprofit Organizations; Net Worth.

built from https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/HHNOSIA027N#
100
Eric Maugendre @data.yt · 16/06/2026
Indeed responsabilities are clear but the NYT is busy hiding them 🙁 Example: www.nytimes.com/2026/04/09/u...
"Student Hit by Projectile During ‘No Kings’ Protest Lost an Eye, Lawyer Says"

a headmast with the typical font used by the NYT
000
Eric Maugendre @data.yt · 13/06/2026
What policy for the Federal Emergency Management Agency? Dr. Samantha Montano @samlmontano.bsky.social has analyzed the President's Council report: www.disaster-ology.com/blog/femarev...
"as any good student of disaster history knows, ideas that are sitting around have a way of becoming law when focusing events open a policy window. There should be an independent analysis available to the public to help people understand where these ideas came from and what they could mean for all of us if implemented.

"The FEMA Review Council was not brave enough to recommend abolishing FEMA but there is still a cruelty that runs through their report. This is not a vision for an emergency management system that is more effective, efficient,"
065
Eric Maugendre @data.yt · 12/06/2026
If you communicate that climate change is due to humans, you antagonise people and democracy. On the contrary, a struggle for habitability would highlight harmful activities. For example, you may replace "Each year we release greenhouse gases" by "Each year activities release greenhouse gases".
On the top right is a drawing of a fingerprint.
"Tracking the human fingerprint.
"A living dashboard of the climate system, tracking key indicators to quantify the human impact on climate change. Scroll the narrative, open the full flow chart or"

excerpt from https://indicators.climate.copernicus.eu/
010
Eric Maugendre @data.yt · 11/06/2026
#ElNiño study: "Each El Niño phase actively reduces low-level [clouds between the tropics]. When the next El Niño develops before full cloud recovery during intervening La Niña or neutral conditions, the albedo loss becomes progressively more persistent." www.academia.edu/167011795/Th...
The chart shows the 'Temperature Ratchet' effect that El Niño has on global temperatures. Each significant event leaves a residual impact of up to +0.2°C...

THE 12-MONTH OUTLOOK
The NOAA CPC probabilities indicate a dramatic shift towards El Niño conditions. While June sees an 84% chance of neutral ENSO, July has an 82% chance of El Niño, rising to 98% by August, September, October, November, and December. The CNN/SNU forecast reinforces this, predicting Niño 3.4 anomalies reaching +3.02°C by December 2026. The most dramatic shift is expected in the 3rd quarter of 2026, with strong El Niño conditions becoming highly probable, significantly influencing global weather patterns.

from https://4billionyearson.org/climate/symphony
100