Eric Maugendre @data.yt · 23hIn Indonesia, palm oil plantations replace forests. Google Maps has not completely updated its display: 001
Eric Maugendre @data.yt · 27/09/2026Passive rewilding refers to *actively unmanaged* environments that are allowed to regain natural dominance, typically after their abandonment. 🧵 Sometimes referred to as "natural regeneration", it differs from other forms of rewilding in that direct human management or intervention is absent. 002
Eric Maugendre @data.yt · 26/09/2026"Directed Acyclic Graphs (DAGs) and Regression for Causal Inference" An easy walk-through by Susan Alber (2022): health.ucdavis.edu/media-resour... 110
Eric Maugendre @data.yt · 26/09/2026"Mediators, confounders, colliders – a crash course in causal inference", by @florianhartig.bsky.social (2019): theoreticalecology.wordpress.com/2019/04/14/m... 🧵 #policy #intervention #graphs #causality #causalInference #stats #statistics #counterFactuals #probabilities #ecology #confounding 100
Eric Maugendre @data.yt · 21/09/2026"Concurrent heatwaves in major wheat producers significantly reduce production and exports, particularly in predominantly rainfed countries." @elisabethclimate.bsky.social, @zscheischlerjak.bsky.social et al. (2026). doi.org/10.1088/1748... #hunger #compounding #droughts #heatwaves #shortage 000
Eric Maugendre @data.yt · 20/09/2026… In most of Spain & France, "the soil moisture index reaches 0% in the first 9 cm. Surface horizons are completely dried out, making germination and emergence conditions particularly unfavourable." — @sergezaka.bsky.social Soil is bone dry. So the few baby plants that may raise will remain puny. … 120
Eric Maugendre @data.yt · 20/09/2026… Now is the time to seed the "winter" crops. No rain is expected. So seedlings are not often going to sprout. … 110
Eric Maugendre @data.yt · 20/09/2026Agricultural production this summer was very difficult. The next crops may not be expected in Europe. Why is that? 🧵 101
Eric Maugendre @data.yt · 20/09/2026We must understand your projections because they come from solid inference. Conveniently your projections also come with guidance for a transition policy: mas.to/@maugendre/1... 000
Eric Maugendre @data.yt · 20/09/2026… I discovered all the points of the two previous posts only thanks to Rishika Pardikar @rishpardikar.bsky.social. 120
Eric Maugendre @data.yt · 19/09/2026"A new attribution technique [suggests] the ongoing multidecadal drought in the western United States can be largely attributed to human activity through externally forced changes." Klavans et al "Human emissions drive recent trends in North Pacific climate variations" (2025) doi.org/10.1038/s415... 000
Eric Maugendre @data.yt · 19/09/2026"Explainer: How the ‘super El Niño’ will reshape the world’s weather": interactive.carbonbrief.org/el-nino-expl... #ENSO #ElNiño #typhoons #hurricanes #California #Arizona #Mexico #Japan #weather 101
Eric Maugendre @data.yt · 19/09/2026Breathing pollution from #wildfires is worse in Indonesia than it was in Northern America around the 26th August 2026. There are more aerosols on a daily basis. The big amount of aerosols is being emitted for months. 110
Eric Maugendre @data.yt · 14/09/2026"Is it possible to ease human suffering, protect nature, and address climate change with existing resources? Yes": drawdown.org/news/interna... by @maryhoff.bsky.social "A people-first approach to achieving global climate and nature goals" Paper by @paul-west.bsky.social, et al. (2025): 121
Eric Maugendre @data.yt · 01/09/2026Most striking is the steep and steady rise of solar and wind energies. It disappoints twice: 1. Solar and wind had made no impact on the stability of the consumption of coal, oil or gas. 2. Solar and wind make no impact on the stability of emissions of greenhouse gases. 110
Eric Maugendre @data.yt · 01/09/2026We agree that renewables are growing faster than energy demand but what follows is fallacy: "As long as this goes on for a decade or two more, then fossil fuels will, by simple arithmetic, be forced into retreat". Graph is in %s, which hides that energy keeps growing, energy sources keep being added 100
Eric Maugendre @data.yt · 31/08/2026"As heat engines grew more efficient, humanity consumed more fossil fuels." @blairfix.bsky.social wrote about efficiency as a catalyst for technological sprawl: economicsfromthetopdown.com/2024/05/18/a... 143
Eric Maugendre @data.yt · 24/08/2026… "Super El Niño to hit major cities across Asia and Africa, disrupting livelihoods, economies and global supply chains, new WaterAid research warns" www.wateraid.org/ca/super-el-... 101
Eric Maugendre @data.yt · 21/08/2026”When our rewilding program started, many big corporations offered us huge amounts of money if we certified carbon credits. We consulted with communities. But our answer was that we don’t sell nature.” 100
Eric Maugendre @data.yt · 21/08/2026“By reconnecting rivers with the surrounding area and creating natural sponges in the landscape, we’ve created a system that stores water during drought, keeping wetlands and the surrounding habitats healthy, & slows water during storms and extreme rainfall, helping to protect villages from” floods. 111
Eric Maugendre @data.yt · 21/08/2026#Deforestation (continued) "Changes in forest areas are highly uncertain. Regional change in forest areas since 1850" Excerpt from Michael O'Sullivan et al. (2025). "An improved approach to estimate the natural land carbon sink" doi.org/10.21203/rs.... 100
Eric Maugendre @data.yt · 18/08/2026… The World Bank wishes for more investment in methane gas infrastructure. 🔥 The World Bank cites the USA as progress. The language is deliberate: 012
Eric Maugendre @data.yt · 18/08/2026"Flaring is a way to get rid of gases such as methane that arise when pumping oil out of the ground." 🔥 About the July 2025 World Bank's GFMR report: www.theguardian.com/environment/... To show the problem, the World Bank pictures black persons: www.worldbank.org/en/programs/... 100
Eric Maugendre @data.yt · 10/08/2026"Uncertainties in future food security will remain large." "10 models show climate outcomes at a 2 °C warming that are well beyond the multimodel mean at 4 °C." @bevacquae.bsky.social, @erichfischer.bsky.social, @janasillmann.bsky.social, @zscheischlerjak.bsky.social doi.org/10.1038/s415... 100
Eric Maugendre @data.yt · 09/08/2026From #Ireland Land Use Review latest report: “sustainable land use requires very significant change”. Journalist: "Agriculture is the main polluter of waterways, half of which fail to meet minimum environmental standards. "It is responsible for 38 per cent of national emissions." archive.ph/Al4qw 102
Eric Maugendre @data.yt · 05/08/2026We may tackle a problem from at least two ends: • Zero soil artificialisation and concrete makers to learn transformation of offices into housing; • Sale of petrol vehicles and fossil exploration can be prohibited; • No more ads for animal products and cattle farmers redeploy to legume production; … 110
Eric Maugendre @data.yt · 04/08/2026Climate forcing: some activities force the climate to drift. Forcing activities include fossil energies, mining, bovine husbandry, tree plantations, etc. 🧵 113
Eric Maugendre @data.yt · 01/08/2026Very extreme risks of fire in England, Belgium and across France and the Alpine arc extending into northern Italy #wildfires #risks #forecast #England #France #Belgium #Belgique 123
Eric Maugendre @data.yt · 26/07/2026Consequence paths of CO₂ #emissions from land use change and fires: (Mining [not shown in chart],) climate change and forest management contribute to forest degradation and wildfires; which in turn force the greenhouse effect. #feedbacks #GreenhouseForcing #carbon #CDR #DAG 101
Eric Maugendre @data.yt · 23/07/2026Please forgive my ignorance on administrative matters. Would it be interesting to push for having some NPs converted to another status such as SSSIs or National Nature Reserves? 100
Eric Maugendre @data.yt · 22/07/2026Temperate #forests store more carbon in the ground than above ground. Mean #carbon storage in China's forest ecosystems was 25.8% for aboveground biomass, 5.9% for belowground biomass, 2.1% for dead mass, and 66.2% for soil organic C in the 0–100 cm soil layer. Peng et al. doi.org/10.1002/ece3... 101
Eric Maugendre @data.yt · 19/07/2026Cold blobs significantly increase #heatwave duration and magnitude in Europe. The subpolar North Atlantic region is very relevant for European summer conditions, but is marked by large biases in current coupled climate model simulations. @sabinebischof.bsky.social et al. doi.org/10.1029/2023... 100
Eric Maugendre @data.yt · 18/07/2026El Niño and climate change may be locked into a vicious climate cycle. Global heating amplifies the impacts associated with super El Niños & “makes the climate system more prone to persistent shifts once those impacts are triggered.” Read @bberwyn.bsky.social: insideclimatenews.org/news/2504202... 111
Eric Maugendre @data.yt · 18/07/2026The weathers, they are a-changing. We can make sense of pattern evolution. I am starting a thread about Europe's new #climate conditions. 🧵 (You may read stories in the "ALT" descriptions.) 233
Eric Maugendre @data.yt · 17/07/2026Temperate "forests with a mix of mycorrhizal fungal types are more efficient in taking up nitrogen, investing less carbon overall to their fungal partners." @siyashao.bsky.social, Zachary Shortt, @bsulman.bsky.social, Caitlin Hicks Pries (2025). doi.org/10.1029/2025... #forests #soil #CCS #carbon 110
Eric Maugendre @data.yt · 16/07/2026@avnimalh0tra.bsky.social, @sophievf.bsky.social, Your work is so important! I am still venerating the pair of caption #2 and multidimensional graph. It has beauty and clarity on a matter in which i would had deemed them impossible! 000
Eric Maugendre @data.yt · 15/07/2026It is very nicely encapsulated @alevermann.bsky.social. Complete with the mandatory mention of fossil phase-out 🙂 Below is the causal premise of my next study on land-use change. You may note that estimates of emissions increase with time: 000
Eric Maugendre @data.yt · 14/07/2026(I grew nearby.) In Brittany, drivers are known to be often more careful and civil than in the rest of the Hexagone. The landscapes and road designs are similar all over Brittany down to Nantes. It took about forty years to cover the whole region. What prevents Ireland from starting? 141
Eric Maugendre @data.yt · 07/07/2026Surface water south of Greenland is about 2°C lower than normal. The North Atlantic jet stream routes around the #ColdBlob and conveys southern air to Western Europe. We have a pattern of #heatwaves for this summer. You may learn how #weather works by playing: earth.nullschool.net#2026/06/18/1... 123
Eric Maugendre @data.yt · 04/07/2026excerpt from @chandrakants.bsky.social & U. Martin Persson (2026). doi.org/10.1038/s430... Spatial patterns of major deforestation-risk commodities: 111
Eric Maugendre @data.yt · 29/06/2026Climate change impacts ecosystems and makes some of them emit more carbon gas. 🧵 Below is incremental heating that would come on top of activity-induced warming. Beware that the ridge is entirely plausible: σ is a measure of the uncertainty; σ is way smaller that the extent of uncertainty: 101
Eric Maugendre @data.yt · 26/06/2026This message was witty enough 🙂 I have accepted to delay attempts at being ingenious until after the current heatwave 🙂 010
Eric Maugendre @data.yt · 21/06/2026Study: methane gas emissions would be reduced by about 20 % in ten years if stopping bovine livestock. A climate policy could be to generalize the current practice of turning male calves into steers. doi.org/10.5281/zeno... 074
Eric Maugendre @data.yt · 19/06/2026'Capital' is not money. It is the expectation of obtaining later money from an 'asset'. An 'asset' is a labeled balance-sheet entry – backed against a factory, a flat, a patent, a software (or a combination). Household #wealth mostly accrues from 'asset' creation and 'asset' revaluation: 100
Eric Maugendre @data.yt · 19/06/2026Saving (ie. revenues minus spending) does not even come close to explaining the accumulation of household wealth (ie. "assets" and net worth). 🧵 100
Eric Maugendre @data.yt · 16/06/2026Indeed responsabilities are clear but the NYT is busy hiding them 🙁 Example: www.nytimes.com/2026/04/09/u... 000
Eric Maugendre @data.yt · 13/06/2026What policy for the Federal Emergency Management Agency? Dr. Samantha Montano @samlmontano.bsky.social has analyzed the President's Council report: www.disaster-ology.com/blog/femarev... 065
Eric Maugendre @data.yt · 12/06/2026If you communicate that climate change is due to humans, you antagonise people and democracy. On the contrary, a struggle for habitability would highlight harmful activities. For example, you may replace "Each year we release greenhouse gases" by "Each year activities release greenhouse gases". 010
Eric Maugendre @data.yt · 11/06/2026#ElNiño study: "Each El Niño phase actively reduces low-level [clouds between the tropics]. When the next El Niño develops before full cloud recovery during intervening La Niña or neutral conditions, the albedo loss becomes progressively more persistent." www.academia.edu/167011795/Th... 100