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Dan Woynillowicz

@danwoy.bsky.social
1.4K followers 2.3K following 58 posts

Principal Polaris Strategy + Insight | Navigating the energy transition | Climate policy & politics | coffee & bicycles | “charter member of the climate-energy wonk club”

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Dan Woynillowicz @danwoy.bsky.social · 11/09/2026
Oil prices are up again, and it doesn't look like that's going to change any time soon. A gas-tax holiday offers relief, but affordable EV leasing could offer an escape. France has pioneered this policy, we should adapt and adopt something similar in Canada. polarisstrategy.ca/2026/09/11/a...
polarisstrategy.ca
A gas-tax holiday offers relief. Affordable EV leasing could offer an escape.
One of the most persistent criticisms of electric-vehicle policy is that EVs are a solution for people who can already afford them: middle- and higher-income households able to absorb a higher upfr…
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Dan Woynillowicz @danwoy.bsky.social · 23/06/2026
Weird? That’s perfectly normal. Weird would be drinking hotel coffee.
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Dan Woynillowicz @danwoy.bsky.social · 16/05/2026
I've got a new brief in Policy Magazine that explores "Mark Carney’s Strategy for the Age of Electricity." It makes the case for doubling not only electricity supply, but also electrification and energy productivity. It also flags a sleeper opportunity. www.policymagazine.ca/mark-carneys...
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Lauri Myllyvirta @laurimyllyvirta.bsky.social · 30/04/2026
What will the global fossil fuel market look like once the closure of the Hormuz ends? In short, volatile and risky but oversupplied - terrible for fossil fuel investors, less so for clean energy investors. The UAE's decision to leave OPEC reinforced this.
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David Ho @davidho.bsky.social · 30/07/2025
Motherfucking wind farms…
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Katharine Hayhoe @katharinehayhoe.com · 14/07/2025
Wildfire health impacts continue -- but research shows that if we do not directly connect extremes with how they're being driven by a warming climate, being affected by disasters won't make us more willing to support + advocate for climate action. That's why it's SO impt that we talk about it!
cbc.ca
Air quality in Toronto among worst in the world Monday, as Environment Canada issues heat warning | CBC News
Parts of the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) are under an air quality warning on Monday alongside an ongoing heat warning in the region, Environment Canada says.
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Geoff Salomons @groof.bsky.social · 25/06/2025
For the BC #climate crowd. If you’re in Victoria, come check out this great event with @danwoy.bsky.social and others! www.eventbrite.com/e/beyond-the...
eventbrite.com
Beyond the Carbon Tax: Charting a New Course for Climate Action in BC
Join IPAC Victoria for a panel on the future of climate policy in BC, featuring expert voices from across sectors.
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David Zipper @davidzipper.bsky.social · 23/03/2025
New paper compares non-exhaust pollution (brake and tire particulates) from ICE and EV cars. Conclusion: EV's create more tire pollution b/c they're heavier, but less brake pollution due to regenerative braking. EVs come out ahead overall if >15% of driving is in a city. doi.org/10.1016/j.tr...
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Dan Woynillowicz @danwoy.bsky.social · 20/03/2025
When all you’ve got is a hammer…
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Bentley Allan @bentleyallan.bsky.social · 15/03/2025
The Greens in Germany got this concession for supporting Metz’ 500bn package.
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Chris Bataille @chrisbataille.bsky.social · 12/03/2025
@danwoy.bsky.social ‘s usual great deep dives. My take on analyzing the O&G cap was if they reduced fugitive GHG at best practise, little combustion limitation was necessary. With a bit of efficiency & heat electrification (heat pumps & heat batteries for low heat need), the cap was not binding
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Dan Woynillowicz @danwoy.bsky.social · 12/03/2025
analysis of federal climate policy it's a pretty big tell that you simply dislike the federal government having climate policy. 10/10
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Dan Woynillowicz @danwoy.bsky.social · 12/03/2025
In other words, even the government’s cost-benefit analysis falls short of capturing the full extent of potential benefits, making the $428 million of benefits a lowball estimate. Regrettable as it is, if you’re still relying on (and widely disseminating) PBO 9/
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Dan Woynillowicz @danwoy.bsky.social · 12/03/2025
Nor does it consider the “stimulation of new low-carbon industries, such as hydrogen, or for the longer-term competitiveness benefits of a decarbonized Canadian oil and gas sector in a world that complies with existing commitments under the Paris Agreement.” 8/
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Dan Woynillowicz @danwoy.bsky.social · 12/03/2025
which found the “net benefits of the proposed Regulations are estimated to be $428 million over the time frame of the analysis (2025 to 2032)” – & this doesn’t consider the possible use of offsets, which would be expected to reduce compliance costs, nor the benefits from reduced air pollution. 7/
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Dan Woynillowicz @danwoy.bsky.social · 12/03/2025
Noting it's beyond their mandate, the PBO suggests “they could be considered in a cost-benefit analysis of the proposed oil and gas emissions cap regulations.” Good news, this has already been done in the government's Regulatory Impact Analysis Statement canadagazette.gc.ca/rp-pr/p1/202... 6/
canadagazette.gc.ca
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Dan Woynillowicz @danwoy.bsky.social · 12/03/2025
(16% growth from today) & natural gas prod'n would increase by a trillion cubic feet (14% growth). The PBO is clear that their assessment “does not account for the benefits of reducing Canada’s GHG emissions.” So we shouldn’t be surprised if an analysis that only looks at costs only finds costs. 5/
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Dan Woynillowicz @danwoy.bsky.social · 12/03/2025
Of course, the sector's cheerleaders/policy's opponents aren't acknowledging that the impact documented by PBO isn't a production cut relative to today, but rather slower growth. Dig into the numbers and you'll see that oil sands production would still increase by over a half million bpd 4/
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Dan Woynillowicz @danwoy.bsky.social · 12/03/2025
For starters, the assumption that oil and gas producers will simply reduce production to achieve compliance rather than harnessing their much-touted capacity for innovation and commitment to net zero (+ significant federal $ for the required tech, such as CCS) to achieve the required reductions. 3/
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Dan Woynillowicz @danwoy.bsky.social · 12/03/2025
As Andrew Leach (no fan of the policy) said on Twitter, "Find someone that hates your enemies as much as the PBO hates GHG emissions policies, and find someone who loves you as much as the PBO loves being the centre of attacks on the gov't." What makes it shoddy? 2/
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Dan Woynillowicz @danwoy.bsky.social · 12/03/2025
The PBO's analysis of the federal government’s proposed oil and gas emissions cap is out (www.pbo-dpb.ca/en/publicati...), and unfortunately for Canadians it continues their pattern of shoddy analysis (www.cbc.ca/news/politic...) of federal climate policy. 1/
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Dan Woynillowicz @danwoy.bsky.social · 04/03/2025
Elbows up. Stick together. 🇨🇦
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Simon Evans @drsimevans.carbonbrief.org · 12/02/2025
NEW: Global EV sales grew 18% year-on-year in Jan 2025 Was this due to the "devastating collapse" of 21% growth in Europe? The "stalling" 12% growth in China? Maybe the "plunging" 22% rise in US/Canada? Or "faltering" 50% rest-of-world growth…? Data: Rho Motion 🤷‍♂️
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Sara Hastings-Simon 🇨🇦 @shastingssimon.bsky.social · 13/02/2025
Dear @pbsnews.bsky.social when a fascist is threatening an invasion and annexation of a sovereign nation you in fact do not have to respond by explaining how it would work WTF is “Here’s what it would take to transform Canada from a nation to a state”?
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Dan Woynillowicz @danwoy.bsky.social · 08/02/2025
"Canada First" may be an enticing slogan and sentiment, but it risks making things harder for Canada. www.linkedin.com/posts/activi...
linkedin.com
Dan Woynillowicz on LinkedIn: Friday reflections... "Canada First" may be an enticing slogan and…
Friday reflections... "Canada First" may be an enticing slogan and sentiment, but it risks making things harder for Canada. As a middle power and a trading…
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Dan Woynillowicz @danwoy.bsky.social · 08/02/2025
"When you tally up that savings over someone’s typical four-year lease or seven-year car loan, suddenly, even without the incentives, the EV saves you an absolute fortune." vancouversun.com/news/local-n...
vancouversun.com
B.C. faces bumpy road as 10-year countdown begins on zero-emission vehicle target
B.C. is now on a 10-year countdown to hit the province's mandate for all new, light-duty vehicle sales to be zero-emission by 2035.
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Dan Woynillowicz @danwoy.bsky.social · 08/02/2025
"When you tally up that savings over someone’s typical four-year lease or seven-year car loan, suddenly, even without the incentives, the EV saves you an absolute fortune." vancouversun.com/news/local-n...
vancouversun.com
B.C. faces bumpy road as 10-year countdown begins on zero-emission vehicle target
B.C. is now on a 10-year countdown to hit the province's mandate for all new, light-duty vehicle sales to be zero-emission by 2035.
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Dan Woynillowicz @danwoy.bsky.social · 08/02/2025
Can confirm.
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Dan Woynillowicz @danwoy.bsky.social · 05/02/2025
Worthy of attention in the Canadian conversation about "what next?" -- the giant climate and energy policy pendulum swing happening in the US could make Canada a MORE attractive destination for low-carbon investment IF we don't follow suit. Keep Canada Boring. polarisstrategy.ca/2024/05/13/k...
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Blake Shaffer 🇨🇦 @blakeshaffer.bsky.social · 04/02/2025
The tariffs may be paused but the relationship is broken. Trump and the next Trump can’t be trusted. Canadians need to look inward and elsewhere, diversifying away from the US, and getting stronger in the process. Let’s make that the legacy we build from this. Bye America, Buy Canadian 🇨🇦
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Brenda Bailey, MLA @brendavancouver.bsky.social · 03/02/2025
Premier David Eby has instructed all 29 Crown Agencies (BC Hydro, ICBC, LCB, etc) and all Ministires to buy Canadian Goods and Services First. President Trump has essentially ripped up our Trade Agreement. This means we don’t need to abide by it either. So what does this mean for BC? (1/4)
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Dan Woynillowicz @danwoy.bsky.social · 03/02/2025
“even Enbridge doesn’t really know how to disconnect from Enbridge.”
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Dan Woynillowicz @danwoy.bsky.social · 31/01/2025
Very encouraging to see Canada achieve an 8th place ranking (now cracking the Top 10!), with 19% growth to just over US$35 billion invested in the energy transition in 2024. about.bnef.com/energy-trans...
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Jesse D. Jenkins @jessedjenkins.com · 30/01/2025
Global sales of fully electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles will rise by at least 17% this year to over 20 million cars, helped by an extension of China's auto trade-in subsidies, research firm Rho Motion forecast on Tuesday. www.reuters.com/business/aut... #Upshift 🔌🚗 🔌💡
reuters.com
EV car sales to top 20 million in 2025, research firm says
Global sales of fully electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles will rise by at least 17% this year to over 20 million cars, helped by an extension of China's auto trade-in subsidies, research firm Rho Motion forecast on Tuesday.
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Arvind Ravikumar @arvindpawan1.bsky.social · 27/01/2025
Beyond tech industry implications of DeepSeek, I am wondering what this does to the ridiculous projections of electricity demand growth in the next 5 years. This is a good time to take stock of unrealized efficiency gains in AI compute before we end up building a bunch of 30-year gas plants.
wsj.com
Silicon Valley Is Raving About a Made-in-China AI Model
DeepSeek is called ‘amazing and impressive’ despite working with less-advanced chips.
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Dan Woynillowicz @danwoy.bsky.social · 10/01/2025
So many of the big challenges BC faces require solutions that cut across multiple ministries, so it's great to see Meghan Sali providing this policy development leadership in the Premier's office. @davidebybc.bsky.social will surely benefit from her wise counsel & focus on delivering solutions.
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Dan Woynillowicz @danwoy.bsky.social · 08/01/2025
It's wild that this isn't getting more attention: Beijing’s official target, set in 2020, for EVs to account for 50 per cent of car sales by 2035, will be achieved 10 years ahead of schedule: China is set to sell more EVs than ICE vehicles in 2025 www.ft.com/content/0ebd... #energysky
ft.com
China’s EV sales set to overtake traditional cars years ahead of west
Volumes forecast to rise 20% next year, smashing international projections and Beijing’s official targets
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Dan Woynillowicz @danwoy.bsky.social · 19/12/2024
This is 🎯- “Americans on both political sides have essentially agreed to frame emerging electrical technologies as being fundamentally about climate change, instead of about national power and prosperity. This is a dangerous misconception.” www.noahpinion.blog/p/america-is...
noahpinion.blog
America is losing the physical technologies of the future
Electrical technology isn't just a climate thing. It's about national power and prosperity.
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Dan Woynillowicz @danwoy.bsky.social · 18/12/2024
re: "US LNG exports do not really affect global emissions trajectory" -- presumably the assumption that leads to this conclusion is "if not American LNG, then LNG from elsewhere"?
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Claude Boucher @bouchecl.bsky.social · 17/12/2024
Hydro-Québec's Sabia on the Churchill Falls deal: “These projects are clear statements that Canada has the ability to do big things,” (gift article)🔌💡 www.theglobeandmail.com/gift/4558b9d...
theglobeandmail.com
Hydro-Québec CEO hails Labrador projects as examples of Canada getting stuff done
Michael Sabia said the country will build its credibility with U.S. politicians by increasing its ability to be a reliable partner in areas such as energy, critical minerals and emerging industries
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Dan Woynillowicz @danwoy.bsky.social · 17/12/2024
Leadership musings... A good leader knows when to step up. A great leader knows when to step in. An excellent leader knows when to step back. And an exceptional leader knows when to step down.
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Dan Woynillowicz @danwoy.bsky.social · 10/12/2024
Yes, Hydro-Quebec’s call, earlier this tear, for example.
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Dan Woynillowicz @danwoy.bsky.social · 09/12/2024
Full details: news.gov.bc.ca/releases/202... 3/3
news.gov.bc.ca
New wind projects will boost B.C.’s affordable clean-energy supply
BC Hydro has selected nine energy projects through its 2024 call for power that will supply clean, affordable electricity to serve B.C.’s growing communities and housing needs, as people and businesse...
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Dan Woynillowicz @danwoy.bsky.social · 09/12/2024
- this is enough to power 500,000 homes; equivalent to Site C - this boosts supply by 8% - $5-6 billion of private capital investment and 2,000 annual construction jobs - Avg price is 40% less than price in last call for power in 2010 - 8 of 9 projects have 51% First Nations equity ownership 2/
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Dan Woynillowicz @danwoy.bsky.social · 09/12/2024
Details to come, but listening to BC gov't/BC Hydro press conference re: call-for-power results and they are encouraging! - 9 wind projects will secure 30 year contracts - 5,000 GWh (more than original plan of 3,000GWh, which is great news) 1/
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Dan Woynillowicz @danwoy.bsky.social · 03/12/2024
New? Dated 2021!
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Dan Woynillowicz @danwoy.bsky.social · 03/12/2024
A big part of their strategy is ringing the alarm about whether B.C has sufficient electricity, most recently: globalnews.ca/news/1089280... As previously noted, B.C’s energy debate needs less heat and more fact www.biv.com/news/comment...
globalnews.ca
BC Hydro imported a quarter of the province’s power in the last 12 months | Globalnews.ca
According to documents filed with the B.C. Utilities Commission, BC Hydro imported 13,600 gigawatt hours of electricity in fiscal year 2024, at a cost of nearly $1.4 billion.
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