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Daniel Zhao

@danielzhao.bsky.social
3.8K followers 486 following 1.1K posts

Glassdoor Chief Economist glassdoor.com/research I post charts about the job market and workplace trends Formerly known as @DanielBZhao on Twitter Maryland born & raised, now in NYC

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Daniel Zhao @danielzhao.bsky.social · 06/10/2026
thanks, didnt realize that, that really limits the number of available slots then
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Daniel Zhao @danielzhao.bsky.social · 06/10/2026
6. Okuayinonu: Maybe, longer recovery so wait until the +2 spots in the playoffs? 7. Pleasants: No, hope Lowe & Cruz can hold up 8. Martin: No, hope LB depth holds up 9/10. Tonges/Collins: Out for yr If it's just the 1st 5, then there're 3 spots left for rest of season? Daniel Z
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Daniel Zhao @danielzhao.bsky.social · 06/10/2026
With only 8 return-from-IR spots, how would you rank the players on IR by likelihood to return (assuming recovery is as projected)? My attempt: 1. Stribling: Obvious yes 2. Robinson: Same 3. Kirk: Yes, need WR depth 4. West: Yes, need DT depth 5. Hobbs: Likely? CB is an injury-prone position ...
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National Hurricane Center @nhc-atlantic.extwitter.link · 05/10/2026
8 am EDT Oct 5 - A trough in the southwestern Gulf of America is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Gradual development is becoming more likely, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the middle or latter portion of the week. This system is expected to... 🔗 hurricanes.gov
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Isaiah Bishop @isaiahbishop.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
Carney showing up with a coffee
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Ben Casselman @bencasselman.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
One of the dominant narratives about the labor market over the past couple years has been that it's a "good time to have a job but a bad time to be looking for one." I think that's only half true. A quick 📈🧵: #EconSky #NumbersDay
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Daniel Zhao @danielzhao.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
sort of, the multiple jobholders rate *has* been increasing since Covid, but it's not very cyclical so it's hard to take as a sign that the job market is improving/declining fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNU02...
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Daniel Zhao @danielzhao.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
The share of workers unemployed 27+ weeks (over half a year) rose to 27.1% in September. The rise in long-term unemployment we've seen in the last few years is unusual outside of a recession/recent recession recovery. And that may help explain the anxiety workers have about today's job market.
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Daniel Zhao @danielzhao.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
The Black unemployment rate jumped to 7% in September, highest since April. Though this did come with a rebound in labor force participation and the employment-population ratio for Black workers. These serieses w/ small sample sizes are often volatile month-to-month.
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Daniel Zhao @danielzhao.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
The unemployment rate ticked up to 4.2% in September, from 4.1%. Though this came with a rebound in labor force participation, up to 61.8% & highest since May. Similarly, prime age (25–54) labor force participation rebounded to its highest level since May.
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Daniel Zhao @danielzhao.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
Average hourly earnings grew 3% year-over-year, down from 3.1% in August and 3.2% in July. Slowing wage gains are unfortunately coinciding with resurgent inflation. Annual wage growth will likely be negative after adjusting for inflation when Sep CPI data is out 10/14.
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Daniel Zhao @danielzhao.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
Throw back to 2025: Health care & social assistance added 23,000 jobs. All other industries added 6,000 on net. 2026 has seen stronger jobs growth in non-health care industries than in 2024–2025, but September featured softer growth both inside and outside health care.
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Daniel Zhao @danielzhao.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
Taking a longer view, professional & business services, education, government, finance, information all shed jobs in Q3. Health care has slowed though still positive. Manufacturing, construction, transportation & warehousing are pockets of improvement.
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Daniel Zhao @danielzhao.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
Government still led job losses due to local government excluding education (-10,600). Temporary help services (-10,900) dragged down prof & biz services. Finance and information also saw broad-based job losses in September.
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Daniel Zhao @danielzhao.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
The swing from July to August is overstated by local government education, which dropped sharply in July & mostly rebounded in August (seasonal adjustment is hard!). On net, local govt edu lost only 4,500 jobs over the last 3 months. Private payrolls alone show more steady growth during the summer
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Daniel Zhao @danielzhao.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
Payroll employment rose 29,000 in September, much slower than expectation and below the 133,000 jobs added in August. Additionally, August was revised down from +162,000 and July to -10,000 from +21,000. Still struggling to show consistent improvement in the pace of jobs growth.
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Daniel Zhao @danielzhao.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
Sep #jobsreport flips back to weak again after a strong Aug: -Payrolls +29k vs. +133k in Aug (revised down from +162k). Jul back in the red, revised to -10k from +21k -Unemp rises to 4.2% (though labor force participation jumped) -Wage growth down to 3% YoY from 3.1%
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Daniel Zhao @danielzhao.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
> The firm behind Claude could start formal marketing for its IPO as soon as the week of Nov. 9, putting it in line to begin trading before Thanksgiving www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
bloomberg.com
Anthropic Said to Target Mega-IPO Before Thanksgiving Holiday
Anthropic PBC is seeking to go public as soon as the middle of November, according to people familiar with the matter, after the artificial intelligence model maker pushed back plans to list.
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Claudia Sahm @claudia-sahm.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
Growth in FRED users well above 20% *per year* for 30 years. That's impressive!
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Daniel Zhao @danielzhao.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
Initial unemployment insurance claims were little changed again last week at 197,000 vs. 198,000 the prior week. Continuing claims fell to 1,701,000 from 1,712,000, the lowest level since April 2023, adding to the evidence that the job market improved in September.
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George Pearkes @peark.es · 01/10/2026
Funny ripple effect of the cyclospora outbreak: McCormick sold fewer spices to other businesses because their traffic dropped. *MCCORMICK: US CYCLOSPORA OUTBREAK PRESSURED B2B FLAVOR VOLUMES
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Daniel Zhao @danielzhao.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
hey maybe LLMs will actually *increase* labor demand for customer service representatives 😅
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Daniel Zhao @danielzhao.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
cant believe i missed that comparison haha
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Daniel Zhao @danielzhao.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
thought this was an interesting peek at a use case of autonomous/remote-operated vehicles: www.wsj.com/articles/the...
wsj.com
The Next Frontier for Autonomous Vehicles Is Burying Your Garbage
Caterpillar’s newest landfill machinery doesn’t need a human in the operator’s cab.
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Daniel Zhao @danielzhao.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
I think this analysis is overstating the claims a bit, but nevertheless, an interesting case study of how increased productivity can result in higher costs: www.reuters.com/legal/litiga...
reuters.com
AI tools generated nearly $1 billion in extra costs, Blue Cross insurers say
AI tools are raising health spending for insurers by nearly $1 billion over two years, as providers bill for more severe patient care, according ​to a Blue Cross Blue Shield Association study released...
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Daniel Zhao @danielzhao.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
One place lower hiring is showing up in particular is information (which includes media & tech). Information hiring tumbled to 1.6% in August, lowest level since October 2023 and just a hair above a record low. *This series is volatile so take sharp swings w/ a grain of salt
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Daniel Zhao @danielzhao.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
Job openings are roughly where we would expect them given the current unemployment rate (4.1%), but hires and quits remain unusually low, pointing to a lack of healthy turnover in the job market as employers limit hiring plans and workers sit tight.
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Daniel Zhao @danielzhao.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
Layoffs & discharges fell to 1,641,000 in August, down from 1,702,000 in July. Layoffs are at their lowest level since March 2025. The series is volatile but the improvement does align with falling unemployment insurance claims pointing to fewer layoffs.
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Daniel Zhao @danielzhao.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
Job openings fell to 7,079,000, lowest level since March. Despite the mid-2026 bump, the trend in job openings has also remained fairly flat for over a year.
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Daniel Zhao @danielzhao.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
The hires rate improved ever so slightly in August, rising to 3.3% from 3.2%, though it remains fairly unchanged over the last year despite some up-and-down swings. Similarly, the quits rate was flat at 1.9% and remains low.
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Daniel Zhao @danielzhao.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
Ever-so-slight improvement in August #JOLTS report with higher hires, lower layoffs: -Hires rate up slightly to 3.3% from 3.2% in July -Quits rate flat at 1.9% -Job openings fell to 7.08m from 7.34m -Layoffs fell to 1.64m from 1.7m
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Daniel Zhao @danielzhao.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
The Glassdoor Employee Confidence Index fell to a third record low of 2026 in September, the lowest level in a decade. 42.9% of employees reported a positive business outlook for their employers, down from 44.5% in August. www.glassdoor.com/blog/glassdo...
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Daniel Zhao @danielzhao.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
BLS employee tenure data shows that younger workers have slightly increased their median tenure at a job over the last 20 years while mid-career workers age 35–64 have decreased their median tenure. Source: www.bls.gov/news.release...
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Justin Fox @byjustinfox.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
The gap between rates on new mortgages and existing ones is growing again, which I think is the home sales equivalent of Punxsutawney Phil seeing his shadow www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...
Chart showing the average rate on new US 30-year mortgages and the effective interest rate on existing mortgage debt since 1977. The two lines are usually quite close together, with new-mortgage rates significantly higher only in the early 1980s and since 2022.
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Daniel Zhao @danielzhao.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
I'll be going to see Tosca this season! A good introductory opera for folks imo with one of the more tightly written plots
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Daniel Zhao @danielzhao.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
Initial unemployment insurance claims were little changed last wk: 197,000 vs. 198,000 the prior wk. Continuing claims were also little changed at 1,719,000 vs. 1,717,000 the prior wk. Both are down ~10% year-over-year Continuing claims are for Labor Day wk so there may be residual seasonality
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Daniel Zhao @danielzhao.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
US job postings at Indeed are in positive territory again, up year-over-year for the first time since October 2022. LinkedIn post: www.linkedin.com/feed/update/...
Screenshot of LinkedIn post from Laura Ullrich, Director, Economic Research at Indeed 9/23/2026:

"For the first time in four years, US job postings on Indeed have grown year-over-year.  The metric ticked into positive territory on September 15, its first positive reading since October 22, 2022. We'll have more to say in our official Labor Market Snapshot tomorrow, but this was too interesting not to share today!" 

Line chart underneath titled "Job postings are up 0.7% from a year ago". Shows year-over-year growth in Indeed Job Postings Index which has been negative though with the YoY % growth rate becoming less negative since 2023, until finally crossing into positive as of September 15, 2026.
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John Gramlich @johngramlich.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
Both major prediction markets have seen huge recent increases in sports-related trading. The increases come as some regulators argue that prediction markets are no different from sports betting platforms and should be regulated accordingly.
Line chart showing recent increases in sports-related trading on Kalshi and Polymarket, based on a September 2026 Pew Research Center analysis of data from The Block.
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Daniel Zhao @danielzhao.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
By contrast, CFO survey from Richmond/Atlanta Feds + Duke shows a slight downtick in optimism in Q3 2026: Optimism about own company: 60.3, from 60.6 About U.S. economy: 69.7, from 70.7 www.richmondfed.org/research/nat...
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Daniel Zhao @danielzhao.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
BLS plans to release an analysis of non/late-response bias in the CES by the end of 2026 Source: conference.nber.org/conf_papers/...
screenshot of the following text:
"Additionally, BLS has engaged with a contractor to produce a nonresponse bias analysis that can be reproduced periodically on an ongoing basis. This analysis relies on comparing the administrative employment values from the UI tax system of the selected and responding samples, examining their differences, based on relevant covariates. The analysis also examines characteristics of late CES responders with respect to their potential effect on monthly revisions. BLS plans to make the results of the study available to the public by the end of 2026."
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Isaiah Bishop @isaiahbishop.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
theres like infinity applications where you get something and need to make a decision. Unless the volume you have is high, it makes no sense to run your own inference. This is an incredibly cool and business focused idea. but also i need to actually use it and figure out its whole deal
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Isaiah Bishop @isaiahbishop.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
What jev promises is an essentially classifier for any problem and that rules
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Daniel Zhao @danielzhao.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
Another piece in Indeed's series on data center jobs, this time focused on the buildout in Europe hiringlab.indeed.com/uk/blog/2026...
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Daniel Zhao @danielzhao.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
link to release: www.businessroundtable.org/media/ceo-ec...
businessroundtable.org
CEO Economic Outlook Index Q3 2026 | Business Roundtable
The Business Roundtable CEO Economic Outlook Index is based on a survey, conducted quarterly since the fourth quarter of 2002, of our member CEOs' plans for hiring and capital spending, and their expe...
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Daniel Zhao @danielzhao.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
CEO survey from Business Roundtable for Q3 2026 suggests improving hiring conditions w/ 36% expecting to increase employment over the next 6 months vs. 37% no change vs. 28% decrease. Best since Q4 2024. Overall CEO economic outlook also improved to highest since Q2 2022
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Daniel Zhao @danielzhao.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
Initial unemployment insurance claims fell last week to 196,000 from 206,000. Continuing claims fell to 1,730,000 from 1,769,000, the lowest level since Jan 2024, and the 4-week moving average for continuing claims is down 9% year-over-year.
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YouGov America @today.yougov.com · 16/09/2026
Sep 15-16 poll of 6,677 U.S. adults (±1.5 points) Do you think legalized gambling is having a positive or a negative impact on sports? Far more U.S. adults say a negative impact than a positive one (43% vs. 9%) 31% say neither yougov.com/en-us/daily-...
YouGov survey results by age for the question, "Do you think legalized gambling is having a positive or a negative impact on sports?"
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Bloomberg News @bloomberg.com · 16/09/2026
Canada could become the European Union's first associate member. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen offered the invitation to Canadian PM Mark Carney during her annual state of the union speech. bloom.bg/4707TNP 📷: Olivier Matthys / Getty
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Daniel Zhao @danielzhao.bsky.social · 11/09/2026
New business applications were down 7.8% in August, but remain up 11.4% year-over-year. Business applications with planned wages fell 1.9% in August, but are down 14.5% year-over-year and are at their lowest since April 2020 and lower than any pre-Covid point going back to start of data in 2004.
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Ben Casselman @bencasselman.bsky.social · 11/09/2026
Inflation-adjusted hourly earnings fell on a year-over-year basis for the fifth straight month in August, as higher gas prices wiped away workers' pay increases. #NumbersDay
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