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Strategic Climate Risks Initiative @climate-risk.bsky.social · 28/08/2026

"This is a a warning, not just about El Niño, but of what climate change could be bringing to us in the coming years as the global temperature rise goes up and up." Strategic Climate Risks Initiative executive director @laurielaybourn.bsky.social appeared on Al Jazeera to discuss El Niño.

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Strategic Climate Risks Initiative @climate-risk.bsky.social · 13/08/2026

"The government has now got to be organised in a way that really gets on top of this, because it is going to accelerate." Laurie Laybourn, SCRI executive director, tells Times Radio that this summer should act as a wake up call. Watch the full interview - www.youtube.com/watch?v=HSFL...

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Strategic Climate Risks Initiative @climate-risk.bsky.social · 05/08/2026

The infrastructure that 1.5°C overshoot pathways depend on has no political constituency, and the people most motivated to see it built are currently its most effective opponents. Political economy remains the biggest and least acknowledged challenge to CO2 removal. Read more in the comments.

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Strategic Climate Risks Initiative @climate-risk.bsky.social · 30/07/2026

How do we prevent extreme weather from fuelling political paralysis? @laurielaybourn.bsky.social Executive Director of the Strategic Climate Risks Initiative (SCRI), warns that we are facing a dangerous political paradox.

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Strategic Climate Risks Initiative @climate-risk.bsky.social · 28/07/2026

"The conditions that we've seen with the heat waves and now these wildfires are beyond what many governments have identified as being the worst case scenarios that are possible." @laurielaybourn.bsky.social Executive Director of the Strategic Climate Risks Initiative on Al Jazeera’s Inside Story.

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Strategic Climate Risks Initiative @climate-risk.bsky.social · 20/07/2026

Your pension is funding its own destruction. The assumptions used to model climate risk are "ridiculous" - and the people responsible for billions of pounds don't seem to see it. To find out why, check out - www.overshootpod.com

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Strategic Climate Risks Initiative @climate-risk.bsky.social · 08/07/2026

Climate risk can erode the social contract. New evidence from sub-Saharan Africa shows droughts and extreme heat lower tax morale via inequality and trust erosion. For flooding, more visible responses reduced this effect. Protecting state legitimacy may be a key policy challenge in the coming years.

Diagram showing how climate disasters can impact tax morale through inequality and trust.

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Strategic Climate Risks Initiative @climate-risk.bsky.social · 02/06/2026

We missed our climate goals, the world is changing faster than we expected. So what happens next? Listen to Overshoot podcast - www.overshootpod.com

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Strategic Climate Risks Initiative @climate-risk.bsky.social · 23/06/2026

🔥 'Really bad stuff happens when you hit 40 degrees.' Former BBC Science Editor, David Shukman, explains how unprepared we are for climate change. Listen to Overshoot podcast to understand the extreme weather events we are now living through - www.overshootpod.com

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James Dyke @jamesgdyke.info · 16/06/2026

What should we do when we pass 1.5°C of warming? Double down with stubborn optimism? Pivot to national security? Accelerate adaptation? Pile investment into carbon dioxide removal and solar geoengineering? Or just close our eyes very tight and hope AI will solve it all? luma.com/xbjxedgd

luma.com

Overshoot: What's the climate strategy above 1.5°C? · Luma

The world missed its goal for tackling climate change. What happens next? Overshooting 1.5C creates profound challenges, including what a new goal should be…

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Strategic Climate Risks Initiative @climate-risk.bsky.social · 17/06/2026

"Wouldn't it be nice if the banks and insurers stopped facilitating the activities that are probably going to have such severe impacts on their industries within the next 30 years?" Actuary Louise Pryor explains how economic models systematically underestimate climate risk.

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Strategic Climate Risks Initiative @climate-risk.bsky.social · 11/06/2026

Lieutenant General (retd) Richard Nugee CB CVO CBE spent 36 years in the British Army. He oversaw the MOD's landmark Climate Change and Sustainability Review and he is unequivocal: climate change is the most insidious security threat we face, and we are wholly unprepared for it.

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Strategic Climate Risks Initiative @climate-risk.bsky.social · 03/06/2026

The Finnish Social Democrats recently voted to make AMOC tipping point risk a national security and preparedness issue. To our knowledge, that's a world first at the party political level.

Finnish language screenshot of the SDP AMOC motion.

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Strategic Climate Risks Initiative @climate-risk.bsky.social · 02/06/2026

We missed our climate goals, the world is changing faster than we expected. So what happens next? Listen to Overshoot podcast - www.overshootpod.com

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Strategic Climate Risks Initiative @climate-risk.bsky.social · 29/05/2026

"You could see an increase in poverty, malnutrition, conflict, indebtedness, and all of the domino effects that come from that." @laurielaybourn.bsky.social spoke to The New York Times about the powerful El Niño pattern currently forming in the Pacific Ocean. www.nytimes.com/2026/05/21/c...

nytimes.com

A Powerful El Niño Is Forming. If History Is a Guide, It Could Hit Hard.

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Strategic Climate Risks Initiative @climate-risk.bsky.social · 28/05/2026

Britain is sleepwalking into a food crisis without urgent action. SCRI Executive Director, @laurielaybourn.bsky.social, was part of a group of nine signatories that wrote to ministers to highlight the lack of consistency on food security Read more: www.theguardian.com/environment/...

theguardian.com

Britain ‘sleepwalking into a food crisis’ without urgent action, experts say

Industry figures warn of national security risk and call for ministers to address impact of extreme weather, inflation and Iran war

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Strategic Climate Risks Initiative @climate-risk.bsky.social · 20/05/2026

The evidence base for derailment dynamics is growing. A new report highlights "epistemic stress" of crises in the Indo-Pacific; partisan disputes, blame and denial narratives corroded emergency coordination during major fires and floods. Worsening impacts eroding the capacity to respond.

Front cover of Toda Peace Institute report showing a forest fire. Title is "Trust, governance and climate disasters in the Indo-Pacific" by Sohail Akhtar.

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Strategic Climate Risks Initiative @climate-risk.bsky.social · 19/05/2026

Are businesses drastically miscalculating climate risk? Our Executive Director, @laurielaybourn.bsky.social , recently joined climate scientist Professor Tim Lenton (@exeter.ac.uk) to unpack these complex issues for the United Nations Global Compact @globalcompact.bsky.social

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Strategic Climate Risks Initiative @climate-risk.bsky.social · 13/05/2026

1/ The new CMIP7 scenarios are a major shift. But interpreting this as evidence that climate risk was overstated would be a mistake. Here's what's happened, and what it means:

Graphs showing GHG emissions trajectories (left) and warming above 1850-1900 (right) for new CMIP7 scenarios.

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Strategic Climate Risks Initiative @climate-risk.bsky.social · 11/05/2026

Fiscal constraints from disaster reconstruction can crowd out mitigation spending, even as public concern peaks. A Grantham Institute paper empirically models what SCRI calls derailment risk: climate consequences frustrating climate action.

Graph showing inverse relationships between weather damage to GDP and population concern about global warming (positive) and annual frequency of mitigation laws (negative) after 1990 Western European windstorm.

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Strategic Climate Risks Initiative @climate-risk.bsky.social · 06/05/2026

Planning for a super El Niño as a temporary deviation from normal misses the real risk. A 2025 study found these events can persistently shift climate baselines. If one forms this year, the impacts could extend far beyond short-term disruption, however extreme. Link to the paper in thread.

Graph showing spatial patterns of climate regime shifts and their increases in probability after super El Nino events.

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Strategic Climate Risks Initiative @climate-risk.bsky.social · 29/04/2026

"This is part of what we see as a whole spectrum of products that you deploy at various points along the way, changing the very story that people have in their minds." @laurielaybourn.bsky.social joined Federico Spiezia on his podcast to discuss why the SCRI decided to launch a narrative podcast.

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Strategic Climate Risks Initiative @climate-risk.bsky.social · 24/04/2026

Nordic discussions have cited stable regional ocean circulation as evidence against AMOC collapse. New research reframes stability as a precursor to coupled failure. Nonlinear dynamics create security blind spots; we need strategies and early warning systems that account for them. Paper in thread.

Graph showing AMOC and NOC circulation strength, showing stability in NOC while AMOC declines up to a threshold, before abrupt decline in both.

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Strategic Climate Risks Initiative @climate-risk.bsky.social · 20/04/2026

IR scholars have called for risk research around SRM to move beyond purely comparing geophysical risks, to also factoring in conflictual geopolitics. This is the only way to ensure research can support effective governance discussions around this world shaping technology. Paper linked in thread.

Two planes, one marked US one marked China, flying above the earth creating aerosol plumes.

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Strategic Climate Risks Initiative @climate-risk.bsky.social · 17/04/2026

Governments are planning for war. Meanwhile, two new studies show AMOC collapse could be the bigger threat. Weakening of over 50% by 2100 is expected, with an irreversible tipping point as early as mid-century. As we noted in the Security Blind Spot report, security infrastructure isn't prepared.

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Strategic Climate Risks Initiative @climate-risk.bsky.social · 14/04/2026

A new study by PIK shows AMOC collapse would flip the Southern Ocean from carbon sink to carbon source, adding ~0.2°C of warming. That's on top of wherever temperatures already are when it happens. Tipping points risks cascade in ways that are often under-appreciated. Link in thread.

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Strategic Climate Risks Initiative @climate-risk.bsky.social · 10/04/2026

“Chaos caused by climate extremes and worsening consequences of climate change can actually begin to get in the way of acting on climate change.” SCRI Executive Director @laurielaybourn.bsky.social spoke on PBS Weathered about derailment risk.

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Strategic Climate Risks Initiative @climate-risk.bsky.social · 09/04/2026

El Niño already causes floods, droughts, and crop failures worldwide. A new paper shows warming makes each shock stronger, not (just) because El Niño changes, but because a hotter world is more sensitive. Link in thread.

Journal article screenshot.

Title: Stronger ENSO-induced global SST variability in a warming climate

Abstract:
The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a leading mode of interannual climate variability with far-reaching global impacts. Understanding how ENSO-driven changes evolve in a warming climate is essential to project future climate variability. Here, we show that climate models robustly project an amplification of ENSO’s influence on global sea surface temperature (SST) under greenhouse warming. This amplification is primarily driven by two factors: changes in El Niño-induced surface wind speed and alterations in the climatological air-sea humidity difference. The former is linked to enhanced atmospheric teleconnections associated with ENSO, while the latter stems from an overall increase in global SST. Our findings suggest that future El Niño events may exert stronger regional climate impacts, not only through intensified atmospheric teleconnections but also by reinforcing local air-sea interactions.

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Strategic Climate Risks Initiative @climate-risk.bsky.social · 01/04/2026

"Climate change is not this slow moving thing that will evolve smoothly - it is now." SCRI Executive Director @laurielaybourn.bsky.social spoke with We Don't Have Time after the UK National Emergency Briefing.

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Strategic Climate Risks Initiative @climate-risk.bsky.social · 25/03/2026

1/ A global food crisis from simultaneous maize droughts doesn't need any region to break its own record. Moderately severe stress across several regions at once is enough. A new paper puts those odds above 50% this century.

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Strategic Climate Risks Initiative @climate-risk.bsky.social · 24/03/2026

"We've got to map out that new contract between all of us to deal with the fact that that golden age of stability is now gone and will not come back." Laurie Laybourn joins the Big Debate on the Meet The Farmers podcast to discuss food security. 📺 Watch: www.youtube.com/watch?v=cjjU...

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Strategic Climate Risks Initiative @climate-risk.bsky.social · 23/03/2026

The AMOC is one of the most significant earth system tipping points. Solar geoengineering might help slow its collapse, but evidence is uncertain. Our Director @laurielaybourn.bsky.social joins an @srm360.bsky.social panel tomorrow (1400 UK) to discuss. Sign up via the link in the comments.

Event promo banner "Live Discussion: Could Solar Geoengineering Help Prevent AMOC Collapse?" 24 March 2026 featuring Laurie Laybourn, John Moore, David Thornalley

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Strategic Climate Risks Initiative @climate-risk.bsky.social · 20/03/2026

El Niño forecasts for late 2026 are worth tracking, less for the direct impacts than for how a severe event interacts with other systemic pressures. Linear risk thinking won't capture this.

Picture of an orange skyline with glowing sun amidst the clouds. (Image credit: Chuchart duangdaw via Getty Images)

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Strategic Climate Risks Initiative @climate-risk.bsky.social · 17/03/2026

"Just one energy shock of the scale that we saw in 2022 costs about the same as it would cost to get the whole country to net zero." SCRI executive director @laurielaybourn.bsky.social tells LBC wars will keep having an outsized impact on UK without urgent improvements in food/energy resilience.

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Strategic Climate Risks Initiative @climate-risk.bsky.social · 16/03/2026

"Unlivable heat" for significant numbers of people is already here. New research quantifies the rise in conditions where the body cannot cope. The cascading risks for labour, economies, and migration are significant and are currently missing from mainstream approaches to risk assessment.

Screenshot of abstract of an academic article titled "Intensifying global heat threatens livability for younger and older adults"

L A Parsons*, J W Baldwin, G Guzman-Echavarria, O Jay, P Kalmus, H Staudmyer, J K Vanos and N H Wolff

Published 10 March 2026 • © 2026 The Author(s). Published by IOP Publishing Ltd
Environmental Research: Health, Volume 4, Number 1
Citation L A Parsons et al 2026 Environ. Res.: Health 4 015013
DOI 10.1088/2752-5309/ae3c3a

Abstract
Heat exposure presents a growing threat to human health and well-being, particularly for vulnerable populations. Here, we employ a human heat balance model - specifically the human/environmental adaptation and threshold limit model (HEAT-Lim) - to estimate, globally, where ambient temperature and humidity already limit ‘livability’, or the level of physical activity that a person can safely sustain without experiencing an uncontrolled rise in body temperature. Specifically, we use hourly ERA5-Land reanalysis data to assess historical (1950–2024) livability limitations for partially acclimated healthy, younger (age 18–40 years) and older (age >65 years) adults in the shade. We also examine the number of hours/year in which physical activity should be limited to light-to-moderate intensity (e.g., sitting, walking, light housework) to avoid uncontrollable rises in core body temperature.

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Strategic Climate Risks Initiative @climate-risk.bsky.social · 13/03/2026

Last month, experts led by the UK Met Office called for an international climate risk assessment While the IPCC gives us the science, it doesn’t give us a full picture of the worst cases our societies now face. As climate impacts worsen, this gap is becoming impossible to ignore.

Title of Nature publication with headline "We need a global assessment of avoidable climate-change risks" and subtitle "To understand the urgency of emissions reductions, policymakers and citizens need a full analysis of what is at stake". Picture showing people walking through a flooded street.

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Strategic Climate Risks Initiative @climate-risk.bsky.social · 11/03/2026

New research has stripped out El Niño and other natural variability to confirm what many climate scientists fear: global heating is accelerating. If mainstream models have been underestimating the rate, we're looking at far more severe impacts, far sooner than most planning assumes.

Yearly average global mean surface temperature from five data sources, in two versions: (top) unadjusted, (bottom) adjusted for El Niño/Southern Oscillation, volcanism, and solar variation. All are aligned so that the average from 1991 to 2020 equals 0.88°C, to approximate warming since pre-industrial.

Both show and accelerating trend.

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Strategic Climate Risks Initiative @climate-risk.bsky.social · 19/01/2026

How can we avoid the end of the world? Well, it all starts with planning... That's what our Director, Laurie Laybourne, discussed with Maiya May on PBS. www.youtube.com/watch?v=wugk...

youtube.com

This Is How the World Ends According to Science

YouTube video by PBS Terra

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Eoghan Daltun 🌍 @irishrainforest.bsky.social · 03/11/2025

92%: the percentage of funding for Nigel Farage's far-right political party Reform UK that comes from fossil fuel interests. Across the world, anyone blaming immigrants, etc, it's all just a smokescreen to allow the rich to keep on getting richer by killing our planet. share.google/W2gwfc0XVpUy...

share.google

‘You can’t eat electricity’: how rural solar farms became the latest battlefront in Britain’s culture war

Reform UK is exploiting opposition to solar panels – but most farmers are more worried about climate change.

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James Dyke @jamesgdyke.info · 31/10/2025

Saying a single year exceeding 1.5°C warming doesn't mean the Paris Agreement has failed provides as much reassurance as the captain of the Titanic telling passengers that there is an important difference between 'sinking' and 'sunk'. www.technosphere.earth/derailment-w...

technosphere.earth

Derailment warning as world faces threats to its ability to act on climate change

We may have seriously underestimated the risks of climate change. This includes derailment risks. This does not mean we are doomed, and it certainly does not mean there is no point in trying to turn o...

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Strategic Climate Risks Initiative @climate-risk.bsky.social · 31/10/2025

Climate change isn’t just creating new challenges - it’s derailing our ability to solve them. In our latest article for The New Climate, we explore how derailment risks are rising, and what actions can keep us on course. Read the piece here 👇 medium.com/the-new-clim...

medium.com

Weathering The Climate Storm

How climate impacts could derail climate action — and how to stop them

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David Ho @davidho.bsky.social · 30/10/2025

Following Hurricane Melissa's devastation, Jamaica’s decade-long effort to build financial resilience will be tested. Its $150 million catastrophe bond, triggered by a storm’s low pressure and path, will provide quick relief. Jamaica’s model may serve as a guide for other climate-vulnerable nations.

cbc.ca

Jamaica invested heavily in climate disaster insurance. It looks about to pay off | CBC News

Jamaica’s decade-long effort to build layers of financial protection in case of natural disasters might help the country access millions of dollars in the immediate aftermath of Hurricane Melissa — an...

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Nahel Belgherze @wxnb.bsky.social · 29/10/2025

NEW: Devastating imagery from Jamaica, before & after Category 5 Hurricane Melissa. Black River — near total destruction.

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Strategic Climate Risks Initiative @climate-risk.bsky.social · 28/10/2025

A year ago, deadly floods hit Spain - supercharged by climate change. Yet climate-denying politicians gained ground. Our new research reveals how derailment risks threaten climate action, and outlines strategies for building resilience and reinforcing progress. 👉 www.scri.org.uk/derailment

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Strategic Climate Risks Initiative @climate-risk.bsky.social · 01/10/2025

The world missed its goal for tackling climate change. What happens next? Ten years after agreeing to limit global heating to 1.5°C, the world is overshooting. How do we navigate what comes next? Welcome to Overshoot. Listen to the trailer now 👇 open.spotify.com/episode/2ICK...

open.spotify.com

Overshoot: a new podcast about a world beyond 1.5°C – trailer

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Strategic Climate Risks Initiative @climate-risk.bsky.social · 30/09/2025

The world missed its climate target. What happens next? In 2015, governments agreed to limit global heating to 1.5°C. In 2025, we’re blowing past this. How did we get here - and how do we navigate what’s next? Find out in Overshoot, a new 4-part documentary. Trailer coming soon.

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Dr. Aaron Thierry @thierryaaron.bsky.social · 09/09/2025

“The future isn’t something that happens to us, it’s something we build together. By choosing to act wisely today, we can navigate uncertainty and emerge stronger tomorrow.” - @laurielaybourn.bsky.social, @climate-risk.bsky.social youtu.be/IkjsAQeomtQ

youtu.be

Positive Tipping Points: Overcoming Climate Instability

YouTube video by Thinking the Unthinkable

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Doug Parr @dougparr.bsky.social · 20/08/2025

UK solar power output is breaking records this year, and has now exceeded the total generated in 2024 🌞 www.ft.com/content/9e49...

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