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Laurie Laybourn

@laurielaybourn.bsky.social
1.5K followers 187 following 192 posts

How do we navigate uncharted climate territory? Lead: www.scri.org.uk Researcher at Chatham House, IPPR, University of Exeter

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Laurie Laybourn @laurielaybourn.bsky.social · 18/09/2026
"[AMOC risk] is distinctly lacking a political champion...There is a diplomatic opening that Britain should seize on" Top piece from @benjudah.bsky.social proposing that the UK should convene a coalition of north Atlantic states on changes in the Atlantic circulations www.ft.com/content/4870...
ft.com
We need an observatory for the cooling north Atlantic
The UK should convene a coalition of concerned states if rising emissions lead to the collapse of the Amoc that brings warm water to northern regions
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Laurie Laybourn @laurielaybourn.bsky.social · 14/09/2026
How can the world navigate the literal and figurative storm of 1.5C overshoot? Join me tomorrow, Tuesday 15th, at 1600 BST for an @oceanographicmag.bsky.social live discussion Sign up: my.demio.com/ref/vblUgyzI...
my.demio.com
Oceanographic Roundtable
Join us LIVE Tuesday 11th September at 4pm (BST)
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Utopia Bureau @utopiabureau.bsky.social · 15/08/2026
Climate derailment was meant to be a metaphor... @laurielaybourn.bsky.social
bbc.com
Lewes train derailment: Another section of rail track closed and weekend trains cancelled after East Sussex derailment
Two people sustained serious injuries in the derailment near Lewes station on Thursday - but are not in a life-threatening condition, police say.
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Dr. Aaron Thierry @thierryaaron.bsky.social · 06/08/2026
1/ 🚨New piece out co-authored with Ben Shread-Hewitt on the EU's adaptation framework and the risk of a 3°C world. Planning for 3°C doesn't make it survivable. But it makes it seem so. Here's a 🧵on some key points. Thanks @climate-risk.bsky.social for publishing this article.
strategicclimaterisks.substack.com
How the EU adaptation framework vastly underplays the risk of a 3°C world
Planning for 3°C doesn't make it survivable - but it makes it seem so
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Laurie Laybourn @laurielaybourn.bsky.social · 28/07/2026
"Governments develop worst case scenarios to inform planning. In some instances, the heatwaves and wildfires are going beyond these This should be a moment of profound alarm and reflection for governments" Some thoughts on @ajenglish.bsky.social about the Euro-fires www.youtube.com/watch?v=AbSx...
youtube.com
What's causing the unprecedented wildfires in Europe? | Inside Story
YouTube video by Al Jazeera English
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Strategic Climate Risks Initiative @climate-risk.bsky.social · 29/05/2026
"You could see an increase in poverty, malnutrition, conflict, indebtedness, and all of the domino effects that come from that." @laurielaybourn.bsky.social spoke to The New York Times about the powerful El Niño pattern currently forming in the Pacific Ocean. www.nytimes.com/2026/05/21/c...
nytimes.com
A Powerful El Niño Is Forming. If History Is a Guide, It Could Hit Hard.
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Laurie Laybourn @laurielaybourn.bsky.social · 27/05/2026
'There’s possibility for a perfect storm: increases in poverty, malnutrition, conflict, indebtedness, and all of the domino effects that come from that.' It was great talking with @chicoharlan.bsky.social for this important piece in @nytimes.com on the potential consequences of the upcoming El Niño
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Strategic Climate Risks Initiative @climate-risk.bsky.social · 29/04/2026
"This is part of what we see as a whole spectrum of products that you deploy at various points along the way, changing the very story that people have in their minds." @laurielaybourn.bsky.social joined Federico Spiezia on his podcast to discuss why the SCRI decided to launch a narrative podcast.
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Dr. Aaron Thierry @thierryaaron.bsky.social · 03/04/2026
1/ Why is atmospheric CO₂ accelerating faster than fossil fuel emissions are growing? The answer is buried in the data, and it's more worrying than most people realise. A thread. 🧵👇
Line chart showing atmospheric CO₂ concentration at Mauna Loa Observatory from 1958 to 2024. A light blue sawtooth line shows raw monthly values, reflecting the seasonal cycle of plant growth. A dark blue smooth line shows the seasonally adjusted record, rising from 315 ppm in 1958 to over 426 ppm in 2024. 

A dashed red curve shows the super-exponential fit, with the instantaneous growth rate rising from 0.27%/yr in 1960 to 0.64%/yr in 2024, more than doubling over the period of the record.
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Strategic Climate Risks Initiative @climate-risk.bsky.social · 01/04/2026
"Climate change is not this slow moving thing that will evolve smoothly - it is now." SCRI Executive Director @laurielaybourn.bsky.social spoke with We Don't Have Time after the UK National Emergency Briefing.
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Dr. Aaron Thierry @thierryaaron.bsky.social · 26/03/2026
1/ For those of us keeping an eye on systemic #climate risks, these aren’t difficult dots to connect. I find it downright frightening. We need to brace for impacts and spring into preparedness now. This thread outlines 6 key papers and what we can do in response. ⬇️🧵
6 front pages of articles about climate risk connected by a red line.
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Laurie Laybourn @laurielaybourn.bsky.social · 25/03/2026
Laurie Laybourn, executive director of the think tank Strategic Climate Risks Initiative, said the report was not a “prediction that collapse is inevitable” but a “warning that on the current trajectory, under current policies, collapse becomes a real possibility”. www.thetimes.com/article/3812...
thetimes.com
Britain’s food supply ‘at risk of catastrophic failure by 2030’
A report written before the 2024 election says climate change, habitat loss and geopolitical instability are a danger to food security — and it has been ignored
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Strategic Climate Risks Initiative @climate-risk.bsky.social · 25/03/2026
2/ Meanwhile, new reporting by the Times, quoting our Director @laurielaybourn.bsky.social, highlights internal UK government analysis showing that Britain’s food supply is ‘at risk of catastrophic failure by 2030’. Papers like the above show severe security threats which are not being addressed.
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Laurie Laybourn @laurielaybourn.bsky.social · 19/03/2026
Renewables mean that "Spain looks well placed in two ways. Its speedy rollout of renewables has put a lid on electricity bills — but that should help bolster its political independence too. Good reason for Europe’s green brigade to charge ahead." www.ft.com/content/19f2...
ft.com
Spain is a role model in weathering Iranian oil shocks
The country’s speedy rollout of renewables has put a lid on electricity bills
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Strategic Climate Risks Initiative @climate-risk.bsky.social · 17/03/2026
"Just one energy shock of the scale that we saw in 2022 costs about the same as it would cost to get the whole country to net zero." SCRI executive director @laurielaybourn.bsky.social tells LBC wars will keep having an outsized impact on UK without urgent improvements in food/energy resilience.
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James Dyke @jamesgdyke.info · 13/03/2026
Hybrid roundtable 18th March at @exeter.ac.uk "Economic Policy to Navigate Climate Risks: from Tipping Points to Green Swans . I will be talking about climate & social tipping points (including derailment risks) Register 👇 forms.office.com/pages/respon...
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Laurie Laybourn @laurielaybourn.bsky.social · 12/03/2026
Thanks to all those who came to Kairos the other night and for a wonderful discussion on how to make sure climate action isn’t derailed by climate consequences Check out our Strategic Climate Risks Initiative research on derailment risk at scri.org.uk/derailment
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Joe Hodson @joehodson.bsky.social · 10/03/2026
This is something I have often wondered about - to what extent can we overcome tendencies to respond poorly to crises? At Kairos tonight: Derailment Risk: A Climate Blind Spot with @laurielaybourn.bsky.social share.google/Qxl6wiSe6vsA...
Derailment Risk: A Climate Blind Spot with Laurie Laybourn
Tuesday March 10th
Doors & drinks at 6.30pm; Talk starts 7pm

As the world heads deeper into the new climate reality, how will we maintain our ability to act?

It's often assumed that our agency will only grow as climate impacts escalate: That as climate consequences worsen, they will serve as a series of "wake up calls" that reinforce climate action.

But the opposite can also happen. This is called Derailment Risk - the risk that climate consequences instead undermine climate action, derailing the world from pathways towards the least worst outcomes.

Laurie Laybourn is Executive Director of the Strategic Climate Risks Initiative, a think-think-do tank focused on the new climate reality, and a fellow at both Chatham House and the Global Systems Institute at the University of Exeter.

In this talk, followed by plenty of time for discussion, Laurie will share his research into Derailment Risk and suggest ways that we might act to prevent it.

The evening will include a break for a one-pot vegan supper.

Kairos, 84 Tottenham Court Road, London W1T 4TG

Doors open at 6.30pm for drinks. Talk starts at 7pm.

£8 Frequent Visitor and Supporter Members; £15 Standard (includes Community Members); £10 Struggling financially; £8 Under 30s; £20 Supporter. Food complimentary. (To find out more about membership, visit our Membership page.)
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Laurie Laybourn @laurielaybourn.bsky.social · 09/03/2026
In London on Tuesday night this week? Join me at Kairos on Tottenham Court Road to talk about how we can maintain our agency to act on climate change even as its impacts escalate Doors and drinks at 1830, talk starts at 1900 Grab a ticket 👇 www.kairos.london/event/derail...
kairos.london
Derailment Risk: A Climate Blind Spot with Laurie Laybourn - Kairos
Tuesday March 10th, 6.30 for 7pm As the world heads deeper into the new climate reality, how will we maintain our ability to act? It's often assumed that our agency will only grow as climate impacts e...
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Dr. Aaron Thierry @thierryaaron.bsky.social · 08/03/2026
1/🌡️ Global warming passed a milestone on 17th Nov 2023 that barely made the news For the first time ever, the world's daily average temperature was 2.0°C above pre-industrial levels Here's what the data says about when that becomes the annual norm, & whether it's coming sooner than anyone expects🧵
Chart showing the exponential collapse of the lag, extrapolated to 2.0C. Reference points show 10, 20 and 30 year lag scenarios projecting 2033, 2043 and 2053 respectively.
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Laurie Laybourn @laurielaybourn.bsky.social · 05/03/2026
"If pandemic threat assessment and preparedness was as fragmented, we would be scandalised." It was great talking to Ellen for this excellent piece in @prospectmagazine.co.uk about climate risk and the threat of AMOC collapse specifically Essential reading!
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Laurie Laybourn @laurielaybourn.bsky.social · 20/02/2026
The world is in the literal and figurative storm of an Earth system crisis Like sailors who end up in a storm, we need a strategy for navigating *within it* so that we have a chance of *getting out* How? Check out my latest episode with @pbs.org's Weathered👇 www.youtube.com/watch?v=M4pS...
youtube.com
Climate Change Won't End the World. This Could.
YouTube video by PBS Terra
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Dr. Aaron Thierry @thierryaaron.bsky.social · 16/02/2026
We need more stories that help people learn from what’s working. Not just what’s going wrong. Not just what “has to happen by 2050.” Real examples of action that others can see, understand & build on. Here's a 🧵on advice & tips for sharing #climate stories that actually inspire action.
Its a cycle. 

Actions-> Results-> Beliefs -> Actions
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Laurie Laybourn @laurielaybourn.bsky.social · 12/02/2026
“[AMOC collapse] is a scenario of global tumult, driven by countries with large populations pushed from the climate regime they're used to. It’s a recipe for serious, persistent global destabilisation” Great talking with @chicoharlan.bsky.social for this piece www.washingtonpost.com/climate-envi...
washingtonpost.com
Why this country declared an ocean current collapse a national security risk
The disruption of a current that carries heat north from the tropics would make much of the world hotter, while turning Iceland into “one giant glacier.”
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Laurie Laybourn @laurielaybourn.bsky.social · 10/02/2026
Starting now 👇
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Laurie Laybourn @laurielaybourn.bsky.social · 09/02/2026
We're in a new climate reality - but how can we best operate in it? Join me and a stellar panel - including @emmahowardboyd.bsky.social - for this @businessgreen.bsky.social webinar to explore how best to map climate risk and build resilience 📅 Tomorrow (Tuesday 10th Feb) ⏰ 1200-1300 GMT
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Common Dreams @commondreams.org · 05/02/2026
A new report highlights the "growing gap between real-world climate risk and the economic analysis used to guide policy, supervision, and investment," while also warning that ambitious action "cannot await perfected models."
commondreams.org
Scientists: 'Garbage' Models Underestimate Risk of Economic Collapse From Climate Crisis
Experts warn of a growing gap between real-world climate risk and economic analysis, and urge immediate action to prevent catastrophic warming.
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Ben Cooke @ben-cooke.bsky.social · 23/01/2026
Back in the Autumn, No.10 blocked the publication of a report into the risks the UK could face if climate change causes ecosystems around the world to collapse. On Tuesday, after an FOI request, it published the report. But it turns out, that wasn't the full version. www.thetimes.com/uk/environme...
thetimes.com
Suppressed climate report warned of mass migration and nuclear war
Unabridged document said disappearing forests and rivers drying up could drive people to Europe and lead to conflict in Asia
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Dr. Aaron Thierry @thierryaaron.bsky.social · 13/01/2026
9/ On the charge of "fear-mongering": #Climate science does not choose alarm as a strategy. The scientific assessment of climate risk has intensified because the evidence has intensified, while global emissions continue to rise. The latest @ipcc.bsky.social report is very clear on this point:
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Rupert Read @rupertread.bsky.social · 20/01/2026
#Thrutopia…
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David Roberts @volts.wtf · 30/11/2025
Lol, Zillow tried to rate the climate risks facing individual properties. The real estate industry *hated* it, precisely because it worked -- it made selling risky properties more difficult. So they rebelled & Zillow caved. Don't look up!
nytimes.com
Zillow Removes Climate Risk Scores From Home Listings
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Laurie Laybourn @laurielaybourn.bsky.social · 25/11/2025
If it takes a village to raise a child, it takes a city to make a documentary... In this final bonus post, read about the people, articles, books, and films that helped and inspired us as we made @overshootpod.bsky.social👇
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Prof. Stefan Rahmstorf @rahmstorf.bsky.social · 23/11/2025
When a government speaks responsibly about climate risks. Iceland's climate minister Jóhannsson: "We believe that confronting climate tipping points and the risks they pose openly is not a sign of 'pessimism' or 'alarmism' but a sign of realism and responsibility." youtu.be/B-0eQnEEsYA?...
youtu.be
After COP30 Fire and Floods: AMOC Shutdown
YouTube video by International Cryosphere Climate Initiative
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Laurie Laybourn @laurielaybourn.bsky.social · 19/11/2025
In summer 1945, the UK prime minister wrote an extraordinarily prescient memo about the strategic consequences of the atomic bomb Eighty years later, as a new climate reality dawns, something similar needs to happen Read my latest @overshootpod.bsky.social bonus essay👇
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Bettina Schwarzen @bettinaschwarzen.bsky.social · 15/11/2025
Listening recommendation www.overshootpod.com @laurielaybourn.bsky.social does a very good job of translating "all that climate stuff" into our very own realities.
overshootpod.com
Overshoot podcast – a world beyond 1.5C
The world missed its goal for tackling climate change. What happens next? In this four-part documentary series, we explore the huge challenges that come from 1.5°C overshoot. We meet the people with ...
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Olivia Rudgard @oliviarudgard.bsky.social · 12/11/2025
New from me: I spoke to two scientists who originally helped spread the use of carbon capture. They now say it's being misused. Here's why (gift link):
bloomberg.com
The Scientists Who Popularized Carbon Capture Have a Warning About It
Many countries are relying on it to meet their climate goals, but it might hurt more than help, they say.
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Laurie Laybourn @laurielaybourn.bsky.social · 12/11/2025
"[AMOC collapse] is a direct threat to national resilience and security" the Icelandic Climate Minister said "It's the first time a specific climate-related phenomenon has been brought to the National Security Council as a potential existential threat" Significant www.reuters.com/sustainabili...
reuters.com
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Laurie Laybourn @laurielaybourn.bsky.social · 07/11/2025
"The North Atlantic may be approaching a critical tipping point under continued climate change." Be sure to check out the latest State of the Cryosphere report Essential reading for anyone working on or caring about our collective security iccinet.org/statecryo25/
iccinet.org
State of the Cryosphere Report 2025 – ICCI – International Cryosphere Climate Initiative
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Carnegie Europe @carnegieeurope.bsky.social · 06/11/2025
❔| #TTP: Has Europe Given Up its Leadership on Climate Change? ➡️ COP30 takes place amidst increased pessimism about the world’s commitment to climate action. Beset by a host of other challenges, can Europe still maintain a leading role? carnegieendowment.org/europe/strat...
carnegieendowment.org
Taking the Pulse: Has Europe Given Up its Leadership on Climate Change?
COP30 takes place amidst increased pessimism about the world’s commitment to energy transition and ecological protection. Beset by a host of other challenges, can Europe still maintain its role as a d...
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Laurie Laybourn @laurielaybourn.bsky.social · 06/11/2025
In 1992, the English Premier League was founded and governments promised to avoid 'dangerous' climate change One of those things didn't work out Our next @overshootpod.bsky.social bonus essay delves deeper into carbon removals and explores why net-zero might be the most dangerous moment in history
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Glen Peters @glenpeters.bsky.social · 30/10/2025
Where are we on climate action? The bottom black line is countries that submitted new commitments (on time), the dotted line is global emissions. Blue shading are the commitments. That is the progress 10 years after Paris... unfccc.int/process-and-...
Global GHG emissions showing a flat line at about 15MtCO2eq, where countries submitted, with a slight decline in emissions to 2035. A rising line from 35 to 55MtCO2eq shows global emissions, and the commitments at the last round of NDCs leading to flattish emissions.
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Dr. Aaron Thierry @thierryaaron.bsky.social · 28/10/2025
So it's official; the world's governments have failed to take the necessary actions and we're now going to #overshoot the goals of the Paris #climate accord How should we make sense of this moment? And where do we go from here? @overshootpod.bsky.social offers some suggestions
open.spotify.com
Episode 1: Uncharted Territory
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Laurie Laybourn @laurielaybourn.bsky.social · 28/10/2025
A year ago, Spain was hit by deadly floods They were supercharged by climate change Yet in their wake, climate-denying politicians gained influence - which risks undermining climate action, making people less safe Today we publish new research on this troubling dynamic🧵 www.scri.org.uk/derailment
scri.org.uk
Welcome to the Strategic Climate Risk Initiative
How can we stop the consequences of climate change from undermining climate action?
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Laurie Laybourn @laurielaybourn.bsky.social · 27/10/2025
Episode 5 of 𝗢𝘃𝗲𝗿𝘀𝗵𝗼𝗼𝘁: 𝗡𝗮𝘃𝗶𝗴𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗮 𝘄𝗼𝗿𝗹𝗱 𝗯𝗲𝘆𝗼𝗻𝗱 𝟭.𝟱°𝗖 is out! As the world heads over 1.5°C, what's the strategy? In front of a live audience, we explore what 1.5°C overshoot means for geopolitics, the law & more Spotify open.spotify.com/episode/547f... Apple podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/o...
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Prof. Stefan Rahmstorf @rahmstorf.bsky.social · 23/10/2025
New study by Falkena et al. shows that most climate models don’t capture the established key mechanism that can destabilize the North Atlantic subpolar gyre. Those models that get it predict abrupt subpolar gyre changes in coming decades 😳. @swinda.bsky.social esd.copernicus.org/articles/16/...
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Exeter Community Assembly @exeterassembly.bsky.social · 22/10/2025
Deliberation in action. People in #Exeter discussing priorities for what we need to do now to help us mitigate future risks as part of this afternoon's @gsiexeter.bsky.social assembly with @laurielaybourn.bsky.social
A roomful of people having small-group conversations as part of the GSI assembly on 22nd October 2025
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Dr Inés Dawson @ineslauradawson.bsky.social · 21/10/2025
Informative series of episodes on climate change (+ also an excellent narrating voice!)
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Laurie Laybourn @laurielaybourn.bsky.social · 20/10/2025
📢 The 4th episode of @overshootpod.bsky.social is out now! Last year, Spain was hit by one of the worst disasters in its history It was driven by climate change But it ended up boosting climate deniers... How can the world stop this from happening again? Listen now: overshootpod.com
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Keith Alexander @keithalexander.bsky.social · 19/10/2025
This is really good @overshootpod.bsky.social @laurielaybourn.bsky.social podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/o...
podcasts.apple.com
Overshoot: Navigating a world beyond 1.5°C
Science Podcast · In 2015, the world agreed to limit global heating to 1.5°C. Ten years later, temperatures are spiralling beyond this and climate chaos is wreaking havoc across the globe. How did w...
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Prof. Stefan Rahmstorf @rahmstorf.bsky.social · 17/10/2025
„This is a national security issue!“ says Dame Angela McLean, the UK Government Chief Scientific Adviser, about the collapse risk of the North Atlantic subpolar gyre. Interesting discussion on Forecasting Arctic Tipping Points - Building an Early Warning System for Everyone, at #ArcticCircle.
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