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Strategic Climate Risks Initiative @climate-risk.bsky.social · 28/08/2026

"This is a a warning, not just about El Niño, but of what climate change could be bringing to us in the coming years as the global temperature rise goes up and up." Strategic Climate Risks Initiative executive director @laurielaybourn.bsky.social appeared on Al Jazeera to discuss El Niño.

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Strategic Climate Risks Initiative @climate-risk.bsky.social · 13/08/2026

"The government has now got to be organised in a way that really gets on top of this, because it is going to accelerate." Laurie Laybourn, SCRI executive director, tells Times Radio that this summer should act as a wake up call. Watch the full interview - www.youtube.com/watch?v=HSFL...

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Strategic Climate Risks Initiative @climate-risk.bsky.social · 05/08/2026

The infrastructure that 1.5°C overshoot pathways depend on has no political constituency, and the people most motivated to see it built are currently its most effective opponents. Political economy remains the biggest and least acknowledged challenge to CO2 removal. Read more in the comments.

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Strategic Climate Risks Initiative @climate-risk.bsky.social · 30/07/2026

Climate disasters can either spark a virtuous cycle of urgent action or trigger a vicious cycle where public anger is exploited by anti-climate politicians to delay climate action when we need it most. This an example of what we call derailment risk. Read more about it at scri.org.uk/derailment

scri.org.uk

Welcome to the Strategic Climate Risks Initiative

How can we stop the consequences of climate change from undermining climate action?

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Strategic Climate Risks Initiative @climate-risk.bsky.social · 30/07/2026

How do we prevent extreme weather from fuelling political paralysis? @laurielaybourn.bsky.social Executive Director of the Strategic Climate Risks Initiative (SCRI), warns that we are facing a dangerous political paradox.

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Strategic Climate Risks Initiative @climate-risk.bsky.social · 28/07/2026

"The conditions that we've seen with the heat waves and now these wildfires are beyond what many governments have identified as being the worst case scenarios that are possible." @laurielaybourn.bsky.social Executive Director of the Strategic Climate Risks Initiative on Al Jazeera’s Inside Story.

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Strategic Climate Risks Initiative @climate-risk.bsky.social · 20/07/2026

Your pension is funding its own destruction. The assumptions used to model climate risk are "ridiculous" - and the people responsible for billions of pounds don't seem to see it. To find out why, check out - www.overshootpod.com

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Strategic Climate Risks Initiative @climate-risk.bsky.social · 08/07/2026

Climate risk can erode the social contract. New evidence from sub-Saharan Africa shows droughts and extreme heat lower tax morale via inequality and trust erosion. For flooding, more visible responses reduced this effect. Protecting state legitimacy may be a key policy challenge in the coming years.

Diagram showing how climate disasters can impact tax morale through inequality and trust.

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Reposted by Strategic Climate Risks Initiative

Strategic Climate Risks Initiative @climate-risk.bsky.social · 02/06/2026

We missed our climate goals, the world is changing faster than we expected. So what happens next? Listen to Overshoot podcast - www.overshootpod.com

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Strategic Climate Risks Initiative @climate-risk.bsky.social · 23/06/2026

🔥 'Really bad stuff happens when you hit 40 degrees.' Former BBC Science Editor, David Shukman, explains how unprepared we are for climate change. Listen to Overshoot podcast to understand the extreme weather events we are now living through - www.overshootpod.com

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Reposted by Strategic Climate Risks Initiative

James Dyke @jamesgdyke.info · 16/06/2026

What should we do when we pass 1.5°C of warming? Double down with stubborn optimism? Pivot to national security? Accelerate adaptation? Pile investment into carbon dioxide removal and solar geoengineering? Or just close our eyes very tight and hope AI will solve it all? luma.com/xbjxedgd

luma.com

Overshoot: What's the climate strategy above 1.5°C? · Luma

The world missed its goal for tackling climate change. What happens next? Overshooting 1.5C creates profound challenges, including what a new goal should be…

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Strategic Climate Risks Initiative @climate-risk.bsky.social · 17/06/2026

"Wouldn't it be nice if the banks and insurers stopped facilitating the activities that are probably going to have such severe impacts on their industries within the next 30 years?" Actuary Louise Pryor explains how economic models systematically underestimate climate risk.

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Strategic Climate Risks Initiative @climate-risk.bsky.social · 11/06/2026

Nugee's interview features in Overshoot - a documentary podcast series navigating a world beyond 1.5°C. It is essential listening for anyone working at the intersection of climate risk, policy and security. 🎧 Listen now: overshootpod.com

overshootpod.com

Overshoot podcast – a world beyond 1.5C

The world missed its goal for tackling climate change. What happens next? In this four-part documentary series, we explore the huge challenges that come from 1.5°C overshoot. We meet the people with ...

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Strategic Climate Risks Initiative @climate-risk.bsky.social · 11/06/2026

Lieutenant General (retd) Richard Nugee CB CVO CBE spent 36 years in the British Army. He oversaw the MOD's landmark Climate Change and Sustainability Review and he is unequivocal: climate change is the most insidious security threat we face, and we are wholly unprepared for it.

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Strategic Climate Risks Initiative @climate-risk.bsky.social · 03/06/2026

SDP leads Finnish polls and is expected to lead the next government after the 2027 elections. This has a real chance of becoming national policy. Credit to Operaatio Arktis, the Finnish Academy of Science and Letters, NESA, and the many Nordic climate scientists who laid the groundwork.

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Strategic Climate Risks Initiative @climate-risk.bsky.social · 03/06/2026

The conference overrode its own party board to adopt stronger language, committing to supporting an EU early warning system, integrating AMOC risk into security planning, and commissioning scenario assessments. This shows significant grassroots support.

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Strategic Climate Risks Initiative @climate-risk.bsky.social · 03/06/2026

The Finnish Social Democrats recently voted to make AMOC tipping point risk a national security and preparedness issue. To our knowledge, that's a world first at the party political level.

Finnish language screenshot of the SDP AMOC motion.

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Strategic Climate Risks Initiative @climate-risk.bsky.social · 02/06/2026

The world is overshooting 1.5°C, a level of global heating long seen as the marker of climate safety @rahmstorf.bsky.social explains why we need urgent action to prevent AMOC collapse. Stefan was featured in Episode 1: Uncharted Territory of our Overshoot podcast 🎧 Listen now www.overshootpod.com

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Strategic Climate Risks Initiative @climate-risk.bsky.social · 02/06/2026

We missed our climate goals, the world is changing faster than we expected. So what happens next? Listen to Overshoot podcast - www.overshootpod.com

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Strategic Climate Risks Initiative @climate-risk.bsky.social · 29/05/2026

"You could see an increase in poverty, malnutrition, conflict, indebtedness, and all of the domino effects that come from that." @laurielaybourn.bsky.social spoke to The New York Times about the powerful El Niño pattern currently forming in the Pacific Ocean. www.nytimes.com/2026/05/21/c...

nytimes.com

A Powerful El Niño Is Forming. If History Is a Guide, It Could Hit Hard.

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Strategic Climate Risks Initiative @climate-risk.bsky.social · 28/05/2026

Britain is sleepwalking into a food crisis without urgent action. SCRI Executive Director, @laurielaybourn.bsky.social, was part of a group of nine signatories that wrote to ministers to highlight the lack of consistency on food security Read more: www.theguardian.com/environment/...

theguardian.com

Britain ‘sleepwalking into a food crisis’ without urgent action, experts say

Industry figures warn of national security risk and call for ministers to address impact of extreme weather, inflation and Iran war

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Strategic Climate Risks Initiative @climate-risk.bsky.social · 20/05/2026

The evidence base for derailment dynamics is growing. A new report highlights "epistemic stress" of crises in the Indo-Pacific; partisan disputes, blame and denial narratives corroded emergency coordination during major fires and floods. Worsening impacts eroding the capacity to respond.

Front cover of Toda Peace Institute report showing a forest fire. Title is "Trust, governance and climate disasters in the Indo-Pacific" by Sohail Akhtar.

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Strategic Climate Risks Initiative @climate-risk.bsky.social · 19/05/2026

Traditional risk models often treat climate change as a linear, gradual problem. We are rapidly approaching tipping points that, if crossed, will fundamentally alter future climate scenarios and, in turn, global markets. Watch the full piece - www.youtube.com/watch?v=IWe5...

youtube.com

The Business Role in Systems Change: Understanding Tipping Points Risks

YouTube video by Global Compact Network UK

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Strategic Climate Risks Initiative @climate-risk.bsky.social · 19/05/2026

Are businesses drastically miscalculating climate risk? Our Executive Director, @laurielaybourn.bsky.social , recently joined climate scientist Professor Tim Lenton (@exeter.ac.uk) to unpack these complex issues for the United Nations Global Compact @globalcompact.bsky.social

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Strategic Climate Risks Initiative @climate-risk.bsky.social · 13/05/2026

11/ The plausible warming range still contains cascading, nonlinear risks that our analytical tools are not yet built to capture. Treating improved energy forecasting as grounds for complacency would be a significant mistake.

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Strategic Climate Risks Initiative @climate-risk.bsky.social · 13/05/2026

10/ Overall: the retirement of SSP5-8.5 is a correction to the modelling framework, not a correction to the level of concern. The narrowing reflects better understanding of energy system trajectories, particularly around renewables.

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Strategic Climate Risks Initiative @climate-risk.bsky.social · 13/05/2026

9/ And the scenarios still structurally exclude climate impacts on human systems. The paper is explicit: plausibility judgments are "conditional on the assumption of no climate change impacts." This means no modelling of derailment risks.

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Strategic Climate Risks Initiative @climate-risk.bsky.social · 13/05/2026

8/ But earth system feedbacks remain poorly captured. Permafrost carbon release, vegetation dieback, and tipping point interactions are represented with varying fidelity across models. Some are barely represented at all.

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Strategic Climate Risks Initiative @climate-risk.bsky.social · 13/05/2026

7/ On modelling: CMIP7 shifts from concentration-driven to emissions-driven runs. Previously, prescribed GHG concentrations structurally excluded carbon cycle feedbacks from temperature outcomes. That changes now.

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Strategic Climate Risks Initiative @climate-risk.bsky.social · 13/05/2026

6/ That range still carries catastrophic risks: potential multiple breadbasket failures and earth system tipping points, including AMOC collapse among others.

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Strategic Climate Risks Initiative @climate-risk.bsky.social · 13/05/2026

5/ The new 'High' scenario reaches ~3.5°C by 2100, lower than ~4.5°C under SSP5-8.5. The scenario range narrowed — but it still spans 1.5 to 3.5°C.

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Strategic Climate Risks Initiative @climate-risk.bsky.social · 13/05/2026

4/ SSP5-8.5 is retired. CMIP7 concludes high-end emission levels have "become implausible, based on trends in the costs of renewables, the emergence of climate policy and recent emission trends."

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Strategic Climate Risks Initiative @climate-risk.bsky.social · 13/05/2026

3/ The old SSP scenarios (SSP1-1.9 through SSP5-8.5) have been replaced with a new set: High, High-to-Low, Medium, Medium-to-Low, Low, Low-to-Negative, and Very Low.

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Strategic Climate Risks Initiative @climate-risk.bsky.social · 13/05/2026

2/ CMIP scenarios are the backbone of climate projections worldwide. They feed directly into IPCC assessments, national climate risk plans, central bank stress tests, and infrastructure planning across dozens of countries.

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Strategic Climate Risks Initiative @climate-risk.bsky.social · 13/05/2026

1/ The new CMIP7 scenarios are a major shift. But interpreting this as evidence that climate risk was overstated would be a mistake. Here's what's happened, and what it means:

Graphs showing GHG emissions trajectories (left) and warming above 1850-1900 (right) for new CMIP7 scenarios.

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Strategic Climate Risks Initiative @climate-risk.bsky.social · 11/05/2026

Fiscal constraints from disaster reconstruction can crowd out mitigation spending, even as public concern peaks. A Grantham Institute paper empirically models what SCRI calls derailment risk: climate consequences frustrating climate action.

Graph showing inverse relationships between weather damage to GDP and population concern about global warming (positive) and annual frequency of mitigation laws (negative) after 1990 Western European windstorm.

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Strategic Climate Risks Initiative @climate-risk.bsky.social · 06/05/2026

Planning for a super El Niño as a temporary deviation from normal misses the real risk. A 2025 study found these events can persistently shift climate baselines. If one forms this year, the impacts could extend far beyond short-term disruption, however extreme. Link to the paper in thread.

Graph showing spatial patterns of climate regime shifts and their increases in probability after super El Nino events.

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Strategic Climate Risks Initiative @climate-risk.bsky.social · 29/04/2026

"This is part of what we see as a whole spectrum of products that you deploy at various points along the way, changing the very story that people have in their minds." @laurielaybourn.bsky.social joined Federico Spiezia on his podcast to discuss why the SCRI decided to launch a narrative podcast.

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