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Thank you to everyone who provided feedback on the draft so far, and to the Sydney Environment Institute and the Grantham Research Institute at LSE which both generously hosted me while I conducted parts of this research. Here is the working paper link: osf.io/preprints/so...

osf.io

OSF

In line with an emerging strand of research showing that 'green grievances' translate into far-right support, I find suggestive evidence that potential losers increased their support for minor far-right parties.

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I find that potential losers in export communities resoundingly rejected the pro-climate party (~ 4.6 pp per polling station), despite not being targeted by the proposed policies. Actual losers, who were offered compensation, did not.

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I test this argument in Australia, focusing on 2019, when a major party proposed an ambitious climate agenda. Leveraging heterogeneity in the coal industry, I estimate voters' responses in communities reliant on domestic ('actual losers') and export coal ('potential losers') in a DID design.

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These voters present a strategic dilemma for the pro-climate party. Offering compensation to all potential losers may be infeasible and could signal the scale of the losses. But this provides an opening for rival parties to exploit policy uncertainty to mobilise uncompensated potential losers.

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I argue that, ex-ante, a key constituency are 'potential losers': those who do not face clear costs under proposed policies but are vulnerable to the knock-on or future consequences of the green transition.

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Much research on the political consequences of structural change analyses how voters punish parties for impacts like job losses and energy price hikes. How do voters respond to a proposed climate agenda whose costs have not yet materialised?

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Jacob Edenhofer @jacobedenhofer.bsky.social · 20/02/2026

Why are we observing a 'green backlash' when serious efforts to decarbonise have scarcely begun? I'm happy to share my working paper, 'The Political Consequences of Climate Ambition: Evidence from Australia', which analyses how voters respond prospectively to proposed climate policies. Brief 🧵:

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Reposted by Claudia Zwar

Very happy to share this thoroughly revised version of our climate institutions working paper -- always a joy to work with @claudiazwar.bsky.social and @chflachsland.bsky.social. Thank you to everyone who provided feedback on the previous version! osf.io/preprints/so...

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Claudia Zwar @claudiazwar.bsky.social · 20/01/2026

Great work starting to open up the black box of Australian elite-level climate politics

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Carbon Brief @carbonbrief.org · 19/01/2026

NEW – Analysis: UK newspaper editorial opposition to climate action overtakes support for first time | @joshgabbatiss.bsky.social @sylviahayes.bsky.social Read here: buff.ly/eAPkvkx

Number of UK newspaper editorials arguing for more (blue) and less (red) climate action, 2011-2025. Some editorials also present a “balanced” view, which is categorised as advocating for neither “more” nor “less” climate action. These editorials are not represented in this chart. Source: Carbon Brief analysis.

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Theodore Tallent @theodoretallent.bsky.social · 19/01/2026

🎉 NEW PUBLICATION🎉 Our paper on "the effect of symbolic policies on climate policy support" has just been published in the APSR ! @apsrjournal.bsky.social (open access) The end of a long and rewarding journey with the best co-authors @malojan.bsky.social @luissattelmayer.bsky.social (1/6)

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Claudia Zwar @claudiazwar.bsky.social · 28/10/2025

There are surely few greater privileges in this world than gaining citizenship to another country not because you must but simply because you wish to. This is not lost on me - and I’m extra grateful

Claudia Zwar @claudiazwar.bsky.social · 28/10/2025

Some personal news: last week I became a German citizen! A typically understated, bureaucratic ceremony, but it still meant a lot to me. I’m looking forward to voting in my first German election, and shouting at people when they cycle on the Bürgersteig ;)

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Claudia Zwar @claudiazwar.bsky.social · 05/09/2025

Congratulations Diane, this sounds fantastic!

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Guy Grossman @guygrossman.bsky.social · 11/08/2025

We have new working paper with Alice Xu and Audrey Sacks, entitled "The Politics of Climate Change in the Developing World," which we prepared for ARPS. Comments are welcome. guygrossman.com/assets/pdf/2...

guygrossman.com

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Claudia Zwar @claudiazwar.bsky.social · 18/07/2025

Original thread here - bsky.app/profile/clau...

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Claudia Zwar @claudiazwar.bsky.social · 18/07/2025

Our updated working paper with @jacobedenhofer.bsky.social and @chflachsland.bsky.social - Introducing and applying the Climate Institutions Analysis Framework (CIAF) - is now available ⬇️ all feedback welcome!

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Heatmap News @heatmap.news · 02/07/2025

Welcome to SHIFT KEY Summer School. @jessejenkins.bsky.social and @robinsonmeyer.bsky.social are walking you through the basics of energy and the power grid in this special miniseries. Listen to the first episode below, or wherever you get your podcasts ⬇️

heatmap.news

Shift Key Summer School: What Is a Watt?

Jesse teaches Rob the basics of energy, power, and what it all has to do with the grid.

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Jacob Edenhofer @jacobedenhofer.bsky.social · 01/07/2025

work with @claudiazwar.bsky.social on climate institutions. Policy instruments span market-based tools (e.g. carbon pricing, ETS) and non-market approaches (e.g. standards, subsidies). Instrument design structures distributive outcomes and thus reshapes coalitional politics. bsky.app/profile/clau...

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Claudia Zwar @claudiazwar.bsky.social · 01/07/2025

Already becoming a lodestar for my thinking on climate politics research! Great to see this WP out.

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Claudia Zwar @claudiazwar.bsky.social · 26/06/2025

Excited to be in Madrid this week for EPSA! At 9:30 on Saturday I’ll present my paper on the electoral costs of climate ambition alongside some other great projects ⬇️

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Federica Genovese @fgenovese.bsky.social · 17/06/2025

🚨Global public action (climate!) is most effective when countries do it together yet we're in a period of IO backlash rooted in left-behind places Does it mean all left-behind regions hate IOs the same? @patrickbayer.bsky.social & I have a paper accepted @bjpols.bsky.social abt this🧵 osf.io/rtymv

Climate Policy Costs, Regional Politics and Backlashagainst International Cooperation by Patrick Bayer and Federica Genovese.

This paper investigates the conditions under which subnational concerns shape public assessments of international climate governance. In line with existing literature, we maintain that costly policy adjustments fuel negative views of international cooperation in policy exposed regions. At the same time, we argue that the more resentful relations are with the national center of politics, the more sympathetic these regions areto international institutions and global governance. Based on geographically targeted survey data from theUnited Kingdom, we find that fossil fuel-intensive regions with strong, institutionalized regional politics have more positive assessments of international climate cooperation than structurally similar regions where regional political institutions are less pronounced. The findings show that regional politics characteristics are key for understanding climate policy beliefs among citizens that bear the brunt of adjustments to international climate agreements

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Claudia Zwar @claudiazwar.bsky.social · 17/06/2025

Great policy brief from colleagues in Ariadne about governance challenges in the German net zero transition and options for reform 👇

Claudia Zwar @claudiazwar.bsky.social · 04/06/2025

Fantastic opportunity at our Centre to work for a year on your own climate politics research!

Claudia Zwar @claudiazwar.bsky.social · 12/05/2025

Great to be at Princeton on Friday for the Climate Pipeline Project workshop, presenting my paper on prospective voting on climate policy

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Christian Flachsland @chflachsland.bsky.social · 26/03/2025

📣 Job alert 📣 My team is looking for a Research Associate or Postdoctoral Researcher - Multi-level Climate Governance in Germany in the @ariadneprojekt.bsky.social project. hertie-school.dvinci-easy.com/en/p/en/jobs...

hertie-school.dvinci-easy.com

Postdoctoral Researcher / Research Associate - Multilevel Climate Governance in Germany (gn) full-time (40 hours/week)

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Claudia Zwar @claudiazwar.bsky.social · 18/02/2025

I'm delighted to be spending the Winter Term visiting the Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and Environment @granthamlse.bsky.social. If you're in London, please drop me a line - I'll be here until the end of March.

Paul Lehmann @plehmann.bsky.social · 07/02/2025

Reposted by Claudia Zwar

Analysis of the electoral impact of German legislation aiming to phase out fossil-fueled heating systems. Main finding: Material costs of the policy, proxied by the characteristics of the local building stock, led to relative gains for the right-wing populist party. By @mkalkuhl.bsky.social et al.

iza.org

Heated Debates on Heating: Investigating the Electoral Impact of Climate Policy

The transition to a renewable heating system poses extraordinary policy challenges to societies in Europe and beyond. Many buildings are heated decent...

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Claudia Zwar @claudiazwar.bsky.social · 22/01/2025

The world may feel like a dark place right now, but at least the sun is shining on my short visit at the Sydney Environment Institute. Thank you very much @seisydney.bsky.social for having me!

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We also demonstrate how policymakers can use the CIAF to create or reform climate institutions in their own countries, learning from comparative analysis. This matters because CIs are easier to reform than macro-political institutions (e.g. electoral rules) (5/5)

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We apply the CIAF to analyse CIs in DEU, GBR, SWE, and AUS. We find CIs in these countries tend to address knowledge and attention-related strategic challenges, while failing to deliver compensation for affected groups or ex-ante accountability (4/5)

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We propose 2 novel theoretical tools: (i) an encompassing + replicable definition of CIs and (ii) a framework to analyse their effects. The CIAF sees CIs as addressing a series of 'strategic challenges' in climate policy and engendering effects via 'stylised causal chains' (3/5)

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CIs - including framework climate legislation, climate advisory bodies, and climate ministries - have proliferated globally. Yet, compared with policy instruments, we know relatively little about them and the role they play in effective climate change mitigation (2/5)

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