Chris Smith @cjsmith.eu · 08/03/2026No your eyeball is right! There's another "other_anthropogenic" not included here. This is intended to align with the categories in DAMIP. other = [ 'Ozone', 'Light absorbing particles on snow and ice', 'Stratospheric water vapour', 'Land use', ] 000
Reposted by Chris Smithchriswells95.bsky.social @chriswells95.bsky.social · 02/02/2026New paper in ERL in which we study the effect of a long-known issue in climate emulators: that we typically calibrate them on only 150 years of 4xCO2 ESM runs. This a problem as we know the climate isn't in equilibrium after this time, but running ESMs is 1/N iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1... 162
Reposted by Chris SmithPeter Thorne @peterthorne.bsky.social · 28/01/2026New discussion paper just dropped that’s taken shall we say a little work to get this far … essd.copernicus.org/preprints/es... please be kind. Not on an at all sensitive topic in the slightest.essd.copernicus.orgHow well can we quantify when 1.5 °C of global warming has been exceeded?Abstract. Parties to the 2015 Paris Agreement agreed to limit the long-term increase in global average temperature to well below 2 °C and pursue efforts to keep temperatures below 1.5 °C relative to p... 813469
Chris Smith @cjsmith.eu · 28/01/2026yeah... it's an offset relative to a historical (1750-2021) mean. The dips are due to large volcanic eruptions. "On average" the historical natural forcing is zero. I argue to use a truly pre-industrial reference for natural forcings as we did in IPCC AR6, but this doesn't make a big difference 030
Chris Smith @cjsmith.eu · 27/01/2026D & A style attribution with fair and HadCRUT5 updated to 2025 (emissions extrapolated beyond 2022, but should make little difference) [code: github.com/chrisroadmap... 3225
Chris Smith @cjsmith.eu · 15/12/2025The FRISIA sea-level rise model description is published today and selected as a highlight paper in Geoscientific Model Development gmd.copernicus.org/articles/18/... FRISIA is designed to couple with IAMs, but can also be run standalone for sea-level rise projections from emissions scenarios.gmd.copernicus.orgFeedback-based sea level rise impact modelling for integrated assessment models with FRISIAv1.0Abstract. Global warming is expected to lead to a substantial rise in coastal sea levels by the end of the century, which imposes future impacts and adaptation challenges on the coastal zone. Capturin... 043
Reposted by Chris SmithGavin Schmidt @climateofgavin.bsky.social · 12/12/2025This is the only parody song about geophysical fluid dynamics you’ll ever need: urldefense.com/v3/__https:/...urldefense.comCall Me Charney: A GFD ParodyThis was so fun to make!! #lamontdoherty #lamont #atmosphere #science #charney #GFS #vallis #geostrophic #quasigeostrophic #hydrostatic #rossby 56623
Chris Smith @cjsmith.eu · 11/12/2025Beautiful analysis once again @hausfath.bsky.social www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-wha...carbonbrief.orgAnalysis: What are the causes of recent record-high global temperatures? - Carbon BriefIn this article, Carbon Brief explores four different factors that have been proposed for the exceptional warmth seen in recent years 296
Chris Smith @cjsmith.eu · 10/12/2025I'm looking for projections of agricultural water withdrawal into the future (UN FAO have historical data, e.g. fig. 13 in openknowledge.fao.org/server/api/c...). So much the better if they are tied to SSPs.openknowledge.fao.orgThe current status of water resources for agricultureThe 2025 report delves into the use of true cost accounting assessments of agrifood systems and identifies policy interventions aimed at transformation 000
Chris Smith @cjsmith.eu · 08/12/2025The Frontiers for Young Minds Climate Change Volume 2, guest edited by me, @chrisd-jones.bsky.social and @leilaniamir.bsky.social, is now complete! Also collected into a nice e-book! kids.frontiersin.org/collections/... Science for kids, peer-reviewed by kidskids.frontiersin.orgClimate Change, Volume 2Our climate refers to the different types of weather we have all around the world. Some places are hot, some are cold, some are dry and some are wet. But now, our climate is changing and it's affectin... 043
Reposted by Chris SmithWater and Climate - VUB @hydr-vub.bsky.social · 08/12/2025🌍Two members of our department @cjsmith.be and @harryzeko.bsky.social joined the first IPCC AR7 lead author meeting in Saint-Denis (Paris). #IPCC #AR7 #ClimateScience #WG1 #ClimateAction 193
Reposted by Chris SmithRebecca Varney @rebeccamayvarney.bsky.social · 01/12/2025#EGU26 session on climate change emulation for impact projections. Please share with anyone who works on simple climate models, statistical / ML / hybrid approaches, pattern scaling, emulators, real-world impact studies 🌍 📩 Abstract submissions are open. 🔗 Session info: www.egu26.eu/session/56612egu26.euSession CL3.2.7 112
Reposted by Chris SmithInga Menke @imenke.bsky.social · 07/11/2025⚖️ Are you working on topics that could be relevant for climate litigation? ➡️ Submit an abstract to our outreach session (which allows you to submit a second abstract) #EGU26 meetingorganizer.copernicus.org/EGU26/sessio... 01312
Chris Smith @cjsmith.eu · 21/11/2025Reduced Complexity Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3 preprint: egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/20... In parallel to experiments run by complex climate models, we evaluate the simple climate models that are used as translations of knowledge from physical science to scenario projectionsegusphere.copernicus.orgReduced Complexity Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3: Experimental protocol for coordinated constraining and evaluation of Reduced-Complexity ModelsAbstract. Reduced-Complexity Models (RCMs) are a critical tool for synthesising climate science knowledge and providing climate projections for a wide range of emissions scenarios. The Reduced-Complex... 0105
Chris Smith @cjsmith.eu · 08/11/2025Cool, thanks Abby! I was aware of this paper but don't think I cited it (my bad) - the running to 2300 is there and we can compare the carbon sinks, but the experiments were concentration-driven, and didn't include the lower scenarios, and they don't have NorESM, which is a super interesting model! 100
Chris Smith @cjsmith.eu · 07/11/2025Unfortunately not. These were from the CMIP6 ESGF - was really a shame that not many models extended beyond 2100. 010
Chris Smith @cjsmith.eu · 07/11/2025A sneak peak of hopefully what is to come in CMIP7. We ran two CMIP6 climate models in CO2 emissions driven mode to 2300 - and the responses in the long term are very different. Preprint: egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/20... 2111
Chris Smith @cjsmith.eu · 30/10/2025The FRIDA overview paper: gmd.copernicus.org/articles/18/... A coupled human-Earth IAM, with integrated climate impacts.gmd.copernicus.orgAn overview of FRIDA v2.1: a feedback-based, fully coupled, global integrated assessment model of climate and humansAbstract. The current crop of models assessed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to produce their assessment reports lack endogenous process-based representations of climate-drive... 192
Chris Smith @cjsmith.eu · 28/10/2025I should have known this... There are 1.5°C no and low overshoot scenarios in AR5, but they are cooler in 2020 than we have observed, suggesting that mitigation would have started in the 2010s. It would be good to do this consistently harmonized in the same simple climate model 100
Chris Smith @cjsmith.eu · 28/10/2025yeh, precisely this! I mean, one of the successes of the Paris Agreement (or failure of pre-Paris climate policy?) is that nobody was really looking at 1.5°C scenarios before 2016. I'm just interested to see if anyone has done a like-for-like climate comparison. If not, I might :) 220
Chris Smith @cjsmith.eu · 28/10/2025Has anybody ever looked at the IPCC AR5 scenario database and run them in a simple climate model? I'm curious to know how many would get close to 1.5°C - probably not many if the earliest net zero CO2 date is ~2060. Interesting to see how ambition has evolved over time at the low end 170
Chris Smith @cjsmith.eu · 27/10/2025Carbon Brief article on our committed sea-level rise paper: www.carbonbrief.org/rapid-emissi...carbonbrief.orgRapid emissions cuts would avoid 64cm of ‘locked in’ sea level rise by 2300 - Carbon BriefCutting emissions in line with the 1.5C warming limit, rather than following current climate policies, could curb long-term sea level rise by 64cm. 112
Reposted by Chris SmithCarl Schleussner @carlschleussner.bsky.social · 24/10/2025Really important paper led by my @iiasa.ac.at colleague Alex Nauels www.nature.com/articles/s41... “The difference between decisive climate action today and continued high emissions is not just measured in degrees of warming but also in meters of sea-level rise” 👏👏👏nature.comMulti-century global and regional sea-level rise commitments from cumulative greenhouse gas emissions in the coming decades - Nature Climate ChangeIt is important to understand how much long-term sea-level rise is already committed due to historical and near-term emissions. Here the authors use a modelling framework to show how decisions on glob... 27543
Chris Smith @cjsmith.eu · 12/10/2025How to contribute to fair: ✅submit a pull request ✅wait 6 months ✅track me down in person and remind me to review it v2.2.3 now available at the usual places. pypi.org/project/fair anaconda.org/conda-forge/fairanaconda.orgFair | Anaconda.org 071
Chris Smith @cjsmith.eu · 17/09/2025RFMIP2 preprint now out! egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/20...egusphere.copernicus.orgThe Radiative Forcing Model Intercomparison Project (RFMIP2.0) for CMIP7Abstract. An external perturbation to the climate system from anthropogenic or natural activity first impacts the climate by inducing a perturbation to Earth’s energy budget, known as a radiative forc... 174
Chris Smith @cjsmith.eu · 10/09/2025If you want to get your simple climate model picked up by IPCC AR7, see below 👇 We have 11 on our radar from the previous round of RCMIP (egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/20...), plus a few others we found since. Anybody we don't know about please ping me or Alexegusphere.copernicus.org 077
Chris Smith @cjsmith.eu · 05/09/2025flat10-MIP has landed! gmd.copernicus.org/articles/18/...gmd.copernicus.orgflat10MIP: an emissions-driven experiment to diagnose the climate response to positive, zero and negative CO2 emissionsAbstract. The proportionality between global mean temperature and cumulative emissions of CO2 predicted in Earth system models (ESMs) is the foundation of carbon budgeting frameworks. Deviations from ... 0174
Chris Smith @cjsmith.eu · 28/08/2025Belspo press release on the Belgian contribution to IPCC AR7: FR: www.belspo.be/belspo/organ... NL: www.belspo.be/belspo/organ... EN: google translate ;)belspo.beCommuniqué de presse | BelspoUne fierté, mais aussi une responsabilité pour la Belgique 000
Chris Smith @cjsmith.eu · 28/08/2025Now that it's public, I'm very honoured to be selected as Coordinating Lead Author of Chapter 5, Working Group I for the IPCC Seventh Assessment Report 📚🌍 Our chapter is one hell of a team! Full author list for all three working groups: apps.ipcc.ch/report/autho...apps.ipcc.chIPCC Authors 3170
Chris Smith @cjsmith.eu · 28/08/2025also very willing to help if you get stuck. Sorry the new interface is clunky - I went speed over intuition. 130
Chris Smith @cjsmith.eu · 12/08/2025turns out I'm an idiot and can't link to papers egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/20...egusphere.copernicus.org 020
Chris Smith @cjsmith.eu · 12/08/2025A deep dive into the world of simple climate models: preprint out from @arp-climate.bsky.social. we know this isn't exhaustive - we focus on the models that participated in RCMIP phases 1 and 2. There will be a phase 3, coming soon. 130
Chris Smith @cjsmith.eu · 04/07/2025We (@tim-andrews.bsky.social, Ryan Kramer and I) are leading a session around understanding radiative forcing in models at the CMIP Community Workshop in Kyoto, Japan, next March. Abstract submissions open until 13 August: wcrp-cmip.org/event/cmip20... Session ID #4wcrp-cmip.orgCMIP Community Workshop 2026 - Coupled Model Intercomparison ProjectThe CMIP Community Workshop 2026 will bring together a growing, and increasingly diverse, community of Earth system scientists, partners, and stakeholders. It 051
Chris Smith @cjsmith.eu · 26/06/2025Including a climate module and climate damages within a process-based integrated assessment model: meet FRIDA. egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/20...egusphere.copernicus.orgIntroducing FRIDA v2.1: A feedback-based, fully coupled, global integrated assessment model of climate and humansAbstract. The current crop of models assessed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to produce their assessment reports lack endogenous process-based representations of climate-drive... 042
Reposted by Chris SmithSimon Evans @drsimevans.carbonbrief.org · 23/06/2025Please get in touch with Team @carbonbrief.org if you're in Bonn this week – @mollylempriere.carbonbrief.org + @joshgabbatiss.bsky.social have just arrived 052
Chris Smith @cjsmith.eu · 23/06/2025In this Carbon Brief post we talk about the implications of not including future volcanic eruptions in climate scenarios, as described in our recent paper: www.nature.com/articles/s43...nature.comNeglecting future sporadic volcanic eruptions underestimates climate uncertainty - Communications Earth & EnvironmentWhile volcanic forcing uncertainty is typically ignored in climate projections, it can represent up to 49% of the total climate uncertainty and systematically exceed internal variability uncertainty, ... 0175
Chris Smith @cjsmith.eu · 03/06/2025I'll be giving a short talk on 1.5°C at a mini-symposium at VUB on Friday 6 June as part of an event celebrating the award of an honorary doctorate to @joerirogelj.bsky.social, see below for details and registration! 082
Reposted by Chris SmithTim Andrews @tim-andrews.bsky.social · 29/05/2025Some sessions that ought to be fun & interesting: 🔷 ID4 RFMIP: Exploring radiative Forcing in models and observations to understand climate change 🔷 ID5 CERESMIP: Confronting models with observed changes in the Earth’s energy imbalance 🔷 ID15 CFMIP: Clouds, circulation and climate sensitivity 033
Reposted by Chris SmithGregory Munday @gergmunday.bsky.social · 16/05/2025Very cool that @carbonbrief.org @ayeshatandon.carbonbrief.org have covered our study, take a read here! 073
Reposted by Chris SmithGregory Munday @gergmunday.bsky.social · 12/05/2025New paper on the risks of forest ecosystem impacts under emissions pathways designed to meet the Paris Agreement temperature goals is out today in Nature Climate Change! 🌳 Read it here: www.nature.com/articles/s41558-025-02327-9nature.com 31711
Chris Smith @cjsmith.eu · 07/05/2025To all of my friends in Oslo, I am presenting at the Joint Oslo Seminar tomorrow at UiO! It will be the full-fat version of my EGU talk: Updated IPCC emissions scenarios no longer limit warming to 1.5°C Details 👇 www.mn.uio.no/geo/english/... 050
Reposted by Chris SmithCarl Schleussner @carlschleussner.bsky.social · 05/05/2025Very excited to announce that the call for abstracts for our @iiasa.ac.at overshoot conference is out. Join us to explore the eightfold path to manage climate risks of an overshoot world: overshootconference.org Abstract deadline: June 27.overshootconference.orgOvershoot | 0189
Chris Smith @cjsmith.eu · 05/05/2025It should be, but I don't know if this will happen again this year. So get in early :) 230
Chris Smith @cjsmith.eu · 05/05/2025The preprint for Indicators of Global Climate Change 2024 is now up for public discussion in ESSD. essd.copernicus.org/preprints/es...essd.copernicus.orgIndicators of Global Climate Change 2024: annual update of key indicators of the state of the climate system and human influenceAbstract. In a rapidly changing climate, evidence-based decision-making benefits from up-to-date and timely information. Here we compile monitoring datasets (published here https://doi.org/10.5281/zen... 24618
Chris Smith @cjsmith.eu · 30/04/2025Here's @arp-climate.bsky.social presenting on the upcoming process-based carbon cycle in FaIR at #EGU25! 0111