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Chris Cooper @chriscooperwcu.bsky.social · 11/10/2026

Agree. And I love your SPPQ piece on this. @bowtiepolitics.bsky.social & I presented a piece addressing some of this at the Citadel Symposium for southern politics last Spring--hope to get it under review before long.

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Chris Cooper @chriscooperwcu.bsky.social · 11/10/2026

There are once again (barely) more registered Democrats than Republicans in #ncpol. But Unaffiliated registrants still dwarf them both. In a new Substack post, I explain what I think this means ⤵️ chriscooperwcu.substack.com/p/democrats-...

chriscooperwcu.substack.com

Democrats Again Outnumber Republicans in North Carolina.

But Unaffiliated registrants still outpace them both.

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Chris Cooper @chriscooperwcu.bsky.social · 10/10/2026

No problem! In-migrants (and young people) are overwhelmingly Unaffiliated.

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Chris Cooper @chriscooperwcu.bsky.social · 10/10/2026

The Dems have definitely been doing a (much) better job registering voters this Fall. I expect the gap to grow (slightly) as registrations trickle in from the counties to the state over the next few days and again during same day registration.

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Chris Cooper @chriscooperwcu.bsky.social · 10/10/2026

The details for the trust by verify crowd. Here's the summary data from the NCSBE vt.ncsbe.gov/RegStat/ This includes active + inactive votes.

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Chris Cooper @chriscooperwcu.bsky.social · 10/10/2026

There are again (slightly) more Dem than Reg registered voters in #ncpol This 2-party battle is imp., but it's a battle for 2nd place Unaffiliated is king. I wrote this in Oct. when the the partisan shoe was on the other foot, but the point remains today ⤵️ www.theassemblync.com/news/politic...

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Chris Cooper @chriscooperwcu.bsky.social · 05/10/2026

A new twist on nationalized politics ⤵️ My guess is that this phenomenon isn't unique to TX & isn't helping Republican efforts to push against the national midterm tide. www.politico.com/news/2026/10...

politico.com

Campaign ‘all coming from DC,’ Paxton says

“I don’t control message or what we’re doing,” Texas GOP Senate candidate Ken Paxton said during a small fundraising event in September.

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Chris Cooper @chriscooperwcu.bsky.social · 04/10/2026

Isbell w the Truckers was somehow even better than I remembered.

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Reposted by Chris Cooper

Michael Bitzer @bowtiepolitics.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

No longer a "pause" "The top super PAC for Senate GOP is canceling all the remaining ads it had booked in NC as of Friday, shifting away tens of millions of dollars in a move that signals that Republicans no longer see a path to winning the state this fall." #ncpol www.nytimes.com/2026/10/02/u...

nytimes.com

Republicans Pull Money From North Carolina Senate Race As Midterm Prospects Dim (Gift Article)

As the Republicans try to hold their majority, the Senate Leadership Fund is diverting resources to Kansas, which has become a growing concern for the party.

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Chris Cooper @chriscooperwcu.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

Oct 2 #ncpol 📪 voting update: 🗳️17,659 ballots cast/ 17,446 accepted from 99 counties 🗳️20% fewer ballots accepted than same day 2022--dems down 30% 🗳️voter location I'd most like to visit; Amiens, France 🗳️graphs ⤵️

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Chris Cooper @chriscooperwcu.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

Sept. 30 📭 voting update for #ncpol 🗳️14,862 ballots cast & 14,672 accepted from 97 counties 🗳️ total ballots trailing 2022 on the same day by 17%/Dems trailing by 29% 🗳️voter location I'd most like to visit: Valencia, Spain 🗳️usefulness of this to forecast election outcomes=0

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Chris Cooper @chriscooperwcu.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

Between: Jamie Ager making a pitch for more barn dances: youtu.be/ZKU7RR90A-I?... & Jennifer Balkcom making a pitch for moms who shoot intruders: www.youtube.com/watch?is=VWW... I am reminded that #nc11 is more interesting than the other 434 congressional districts combined #ncpol

youtu.be

Barn Dance | Jamie Ager for Congress

YouTube video by Jamie Ager

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Chris Cooper @chriscooperwcu.bsky.social · 25/09/2026

Must-read story about Whatley's communications w/officials after Helene. #ncpol “After review, no records exist for this request,” “No responsive records were located using the search criteria provided,” Story by @coryvaillancourt.bsky.social www.citizen-times.com/story/news/l...

citizen-times.com

Records show recovery czar Whatley’s scant Helene engagement

Searches of communications found little evidence that Trump’s recovery czar ever engaged with officials on rebuilding Western North Carolina.

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Chris Cooper @chriscooperwcu.bsky.social · 25/09/2026

9/25 📪 voting update for #ncpol 🗳️10,500 votes cast/10,330 accepted from 93 counties 🗳️Trailing 2022 overall & for all parties 🗳️Voter location I'd most like to visit: Barcelona 🗳️ See ⬇️ for more detail 🗳️ Caveat: These data are good for understanding, lousy for forecasting

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Chris Cooper @chriscooperwcu.bsky.social · 25/09/2026

The Cook Political Report is moving 15 races in the D direction, including #nc11, which is moving from Lean R to toss-up. @CookPolitical is leaving #nc1 as a Lean R but note that it "could also shift into the Toss Up category."

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Chris Cooper @chriscooperwcu.bsky.social · 23/09/2026

9/23 📭 voting update for #ncpol 🗳️8,280 ballots cast from 91 counties/8,169 accepted 🗳 All parties trailing 2022 (but some more than others) 🗳️voter location I'd most like to visit: Antarctica 🗳️see graphs ⬇️ for detail

Lemaire Channel, Anarctica. Photo from Wikicommons

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Chris Cooper @chriscooperwcu.bsky.social · 21/09/2026

Exactly how I hoped Prince would dress when he went poodle shopping.

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Chris Cooper @chriscooperwcu.bsky.social · 21/09/2026

If I didn't read @ncrabbithole.com, I wouldn't know that Prince once purchased a poodle in the Asheville mall. And that would be no way to live.

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Chris Cooper @chriscooperwcu.bsky.social · 19/09/2026

Most days working on a college campus makes me convinced that I made the right career choice. Other days it makes me daydream about the lumberjack career that could have been.

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Chris Cooper @chriscooperwcu.bsky.social · 17/09/2026

Enjoyed spending some time w/ Transylvania County Board of elections tonight as part of the Trusted Elections Tour. Director, Republican Chair & Democratic Board member were all kind, smart, & committed to accessible & secure elections.

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Chris Cooper @chriscooperwcu.bsky.social · 16/09/2026

9/16/2026 early voting update for #ncpol. 🗳️3,248 ballots cast/3,212 accepted from 80 counties 🗳️51% Dem/10%R/38%U 🗳️voter location I'd most like to visit today: Penne, Italy

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Chris Cooper @chriscooperwcu.bsky.social · 16/09/2026

Screams in Gerber, Green, and Larimer (2008)

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Chris Cooper @chriscooperwcu.bsky.social · 16/09/2026

Dem super PAC The Bench is reporting a poll (conducted by Public Policy Polling) showing Jamie Ager (D) & Jennifer Balkcam (R) in a tie in #nc11 (47 D -44 R w/ a MOE of 4.3%) Would love to see more details (? wording, demo, etc.)---post em if you've got em 🙏 Saving that, i'll tap the sign #ncpol

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Chris Cooper @chriscooperwcu.bsky.social · 16/09/2026

planning to start doing exactly those comparisons later this week

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Chris Cooper @chriscooperwcu.bsky.social · 16/09/2026

"Edwards’ office said Tuesday that the congressman is seeking an independent investigation as well as a public apology for the “grave and lasting damage inflicted upon Edwards’ character, dignity, reputation, family, and public service.” #ncpol #nc11 👀 ⬇️ www.bpr.org/politics-gov...

bpr.org

Rep. Chuck Edwards files complaint against House ethics panel over misconduct probe

The Republican congressman argued the panel failed to follow its own rules when it investigated allegations that he sexually harassed two young female staff members.

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Chris Cooper @chriscooperwcu.bsky.social · 15/09/2026

20 are "pending cure," one is "photo ID curable" and 2 are "affidavit review pending."

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Chris Cooper @chriscooperwcu.bsky.social · 15/09/2026

Mail voting update for #ncpol (9/15/2026) 🗳️ 2503 votes cast/ 2480 accepted 🗳️ 803 accepted yesterday, the most thus far 🗳️ 74 counties have at least one vote 🗳️52% from reg. Dems/10% Reps./38% Una 🗳️Voter location I'd most like to visit: Vienna Austria

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Chris Cooper @chriscooperwcu.bsky.social · 14/09/2026

Local/#wnc folks--the Trusted Elections Tour is coming to Sylva (Tuesday) and Brevard (Wednesday). Please join us for a great conversation. #ncpol

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Chris Cooper @chriscooperwcu.bsky.social · 14/09/2026

9/14/26 📭 voting short update for #ncpol: 🗳️1,640 votes cast/1,627 accepted from 68 counties 🗳️53% from Dems/7% Reps/40% Una, 1 Libertarian, 1 Green 🗳️ voter location I'd most like to visit: Cupecoy Bay, Sint Maarten

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Chris Cooper @chriscooperwcu.bsky.social · 10/09/2026

9/10/2026 early voting update: 🗳️ 841 ballots cast/832 accepted from 52 counties 🗳️53% Dems/42%Una/6% Rep/1 Green 🗳️ voter location I'd most like to visit: Porto Portugal #ncpol #election2026

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Chris Cooper @chriscooperwcu.bsky.social · 09/09/2026

Wake is also not showing up in the state ENRS file yet and they have had well over 100 ballots returned thus far.

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Chris Cooper @chriscooperwcu.bsky.social · 09/09/2026

9/9/26 early voting mini update: 🗳️ 294 ballots have been accepted for the 2026 election from 42 counties 🗳️ 56% from Dems/37% from Una/6% from Reps 🗳️ voter location I'd most like to visit: Wellington, NZ 🗳️ Daily mini updates for now. Longer ones starting Sunday. #ncpol #2026election

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Chris Cooper @chriscooperwcu.bsky.social · 06/09/2026

Darn! Should be all available on youtube or apple podcasts, spotify, etc.

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Chris Cooper @chriscooperwcu.bsky.social · 05/09/2026

Thanks to @wlos-13.bsky.social for streaming the #nc11 Agricultural Forum from last week & kudos to Jennifer Balkcom & Jamie Ager for doing it. These sorts of events are getting less & less common--says something + about both candidates that they participated #ncpol www.youtube.com/watch?v=AL-U...

youtube.com

NC-11 candidate forum

YouTube video by WLOS News 13

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Chris Cooper @chriscooperwcu.bsky.social · 05/09/2026

If you want to understand how people are casting their ballots & witness the long election as it unfolds, these data are invaluable. If you want to predict the outcome of the election, however, you're better off practicing Calendrical divination.

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Chris Cooper @chriscooperwcu.bsky.social · 05/09/2026

Michael McDonald (@electionproject.bsky.social) has done as much as anyone to put helpful, rigorous, & reliable election data into the public domain (ex. ⬇️) You're probably already following him, but if not, that's an easy oversight to rectify.

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Chris Cooper @chriscooperwcu.bsky.social · 05/09/2026

10 ballots have now been accepted in the 2026 election--6 Dems, 1 Reps, and 3 Unaffiliated 9 of the 10 ballots came from overseas-including 1 from Puerto Vallarta. Not a bad place to cast a vote. For the backstory on #ncpol's early election timing, see: chriscooperwcu.substack.com/p/the-2026-e...

photo from wikicommons of the beaches of Puerto Vallarta.

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Chris Cooper @chriscooperwcu.bsky.social · 04/09/2026

Not true. He can run again; he just can't serve out the full length of his term. And in case of vacancy, the Governor has to appoint from a list given to him by the party of the person vacating the position.

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Chris Cooper @chriscooperwcu.bsky.social · 03/09/2026

Let the speculation begin about what comes next for Justice Phil Berger, Jr. His current term is over in '28. So is the term of Chief Justice Newby.

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Reposted by Chris Cooper

Center for NC Politics & Public Service @ncpolitics.bsky.social · 02/09/2026

NC Survey Finds Broad Support for Upcoming Constitutional Amendments But Views Shift on Property Tax Limits When Voters Consider Tradeoffs, according to @catawbacollege.bsky.social - @today.yougov.com Survey #ncpol ncpoliticscenter.substack.com/p/nc-survey-...

ncpoliticscenter.substack.com

NC Survey Finds Broad Support for Upcoming Constitutional Amendments

But Views Shift on Property Tax Limits When Voters Consider Tradeoffs

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Chris Cooper @chriscooperwcu.bsky.social · 02/09/2026

Today, Chuck Edwards became the 29th member censured in U.S. House history ⬇️ Add 11 reprimands and 6 expulsions, and the House has formally disciplined 45 people a total of 46 times since 1789—less than 1/2 of 1% of all who have served in the chamber. #ncpol #nc11

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Chris Cooper @chriscooperwcu.bsky.social · 02/09/2026

The Jackson County Board of Elections voted today to move the Cullowhee precinct election day voting site from the Cullowhee Recreation Center to the Health and Human Sciences Building at Western Carolina University. Both sites will be used in 2026 early voting. #ncpol #wncpol

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