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Chris Aylett

@chrisaylett.bsky.social
1.3K followers 285 following 199 posts

Research Fellow @chathamhouse focusing on the geopolitics of climate change and the energy transition. Views my own. www.chathamhouse.org/about-us/our-p… Header: 'A List of Antagonisms', Hiba Abdallah

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Reposted by Chris Aylett
Justin Mikulka @justinmikulka.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
"To justify staggering investment sums, Americans will have to spend as much of their income on this one technology [AI] as they do on food" I'm pretty sure that ain't happening.
bar chart showing that for AI to work as a business Americans would need to spend as much on AI as they do on food.
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Chris Aylett @chrisaylett.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
Subsea electricity cables are playing an increasingly important role in European energy security This new book from my colleague Katja is a must-read
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Chris Aylett @chrisaylett.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
Brilliant thought experiment from @davidfickling.bsky.social It is rather naive, shall we say, for a government to bank on seaborne gas imports to meet future energy needs, while trade becomes ever more political, climate shocks increase, and data centres gobble up all our electricity
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Chris Aylett @chrisaylett.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
It's easy to become numb to the extraordinary violence the US government is systematically inflicting on the planet and all its inhabitants The Environmental Destruction Agency further abasing itself here, begging power plant operators to pollute more www.theguardian.com/environment/...
theguardian.com
US ends limits on coal and gas plant emissions, removing key tool to battle climate crisis
Trump’s EPA strips itself of regulation ability, gutting Clean Air Act in what experts say is a gift to planet polluters
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Reposted by Chris Aylett
British Institute of Energy Economics @biee.org · 15/09/2026
How could shifting geopolitics reshape GB’s energy security and net-zero goals? Join the opening panel at the BIEE Policy Conference on 24 Sept to find out. Register here: www.biee.org #BIEE2026
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Chris Aylett @chrisaylett.bsky.social · 08/09/2026
The thing I most object to with the Tories new energy policy (as set out by Onward) is the absurd claim that scrapping all climate policies and letting the market rip* is somehow consistent with good environmental stewardship * except for nuclear, which naturally gets massive subsidies
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Chris Aylett @chrisaylett.bsky.social · 07/09/2026
Good to see the government so laser-focused on the most important thing about the fascist gang descending on Dover on Saturday - the minor disruption experienced by freight traffic and holidaymakers www.bbc.com/news/article...
BBC News screenshot

The full government statement read: "The right to peaceful protest is fundamental to our democracy, but we condemn the behaviour in Dover and the travel disruption it has caused.

"We appreciate the frustration of those who have been impacted today. Access to the port is now restored and traffic is flowing. Those travelling to the port are advised to allow for extra travel time and to follow guidance from providers.

"We thank policing partners and travel providers who we continue to work with to ensure the safety of passengers and the wider community."
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Chris Aylett @chrisaylett.bsky.social · 07/09/2026
Labour MP for Dover: if only the aspiring fascist militia had been in possession of the correct facts and figures! www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
BBC News screenshot

"I am fed up with idiots coming to Dover," he said on Facebook.

"I bet if you asked any one of those 'protesters' they wouldn't know small boat crossing are down by 40% and we are working hard to fix the mess.
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Chris Aylett @chrisaylett.bsky.social · 04/09/2026
Convincing argument against shutting out Chinese competition - you pay, but you don't know how "The benefits (...) are concentrated, immediate and attributable, while costs are dispersed across consumers, deferred over time and scattered across policy domains" eastasiaforum.org/2026/08/14/t...
eastasiaforum.org
The strategic price of selective exclusion
While strategic exclusion measures like the EU ban on Chinese inverters can be justified against specific policy criteria, their aggregated costs can be significant.
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Chris Aylett @chrisaylett.bsky.social · 01/09/2026
The UK has a new shadow energy secretary, Andrew Bowie MP Great to see his enthusiasm for ending the UK's contribution to climate change (aka net zero), in this 2019 statement: www.andrewbowie.org.uk/climate-chan... Presume this is still valid? Climate change has only gotten worse, after all
andrewbowie.org.uk
Climate Change Concerns
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Chris Aylett @chrisaylett.bsky.social · 01/09/2026
China may be the largest GHG emitter but it takes climate change extremely seriously @kyleichan.bsky.social shows how and why this happened, drawing an interesting parallel with the current US-China scramble for AI supremacy substack.com/home/post/p-...
substack.com
How China became climate-pilled—and what that means for AI
AI safety needs to be seen as a domestic priority for Chinese policymakers, not a foreign demand. Climate change offers a useful parallel.
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Reposted by Chris Aylett
George Monbiot @georgemonbiot.bsky.social · 31/08/2026
It's not often you can pinpoint real, positive change a journalist has caused. But as Turkmeni sources state, @dpcarrington.bsky.social's persistent and probing coverage of this issue has been critical to a change of policy, with massive implications. Big congrats www.theguardian.com/environment/...
theguardian.com
‘Breakthrough’ as Turkmenistan starts fixing ‘mindboggling’ methane mega-leaks
Secretive state begins repairs on ageing facilities after being revealed as worst country for leaks of potent greenhouse gas
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Reposted by Chris Aylett
Chatham House @chathamhouse.org · 29/08/2026
"This is a hugely risky and a long term endeavor. It is not in the interest of the Venezuelan people, and it's not even in the interests of the US." Christopher Sabatini on the deal announced by the Trump administration to control 65 billion barrels of oil from Venezuela's reserves, via @cnn.com.
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Chris Aylett @chrisaylett.bsky.social · 27/08/2026
"Why would the AI labs want to release research showing that their products make work less meaningful or more intense?" AI companies will, in the end, only publish research that supports their commercial objectives. Same for any company with a damaging product - fossil fuels, tobacco etc
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Chris Aylett @chrisaylett.bsky.social · 26/08/2026
I don't *think* Trump bombed Iran to increase the profits of the US LNG industry, and to seize market share from Qatar, but it would be a pretty coherent explanation www.reuters.com/business/ene...
A Reuters graph showing US LNG exports 2025 - 2026, with a big increase in shipments to Asia since March 2026.

Text: The U.S. has exported more liquefied natural gas (LNG) to Asia, which traditionally imports most of the LNG produced in Qatar and that is now trapped by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Total U.S. LNG exports are also up year on year as new export terminals have started operations.
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Reposted by Chris Aylett
Rav BOO!dram 🎃👻 @rvbdrm.com · 26/08/2026
In the future, humanity’s primary function will be cleaning up after our robot overlords spasm into a pile of debris.
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Chris Aylett @chrisaylett.bsky.social · 14/08/2026
'Marsh names beach to succeed herring' is like a badly translated Norse proverb www.theinsurer.com/ti/news/mars...
Headline reading: Marsh names Beach to succeed Herring as UK CEO for energy and power

Underneath it says: Marsh has name Will Beach as CEO of energy and power, UK at Marsh Specialty, succeeding Andrew Herring, who is set to transition to the role of global chair at the beginning of next year.
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Chris Aylett @chrisaylett.bsky.social · 13/08/2026
It's somewhat unwise of the Canadian PM to commit large sums of taxpayer money to oil and gas export infrastructure directed at an Asian market that is souring on imports and deploying alternatives at pace Me and Phesheya Nxumalo for @chathamhouse.org www.chathamhouse.org/2026/08/why-...
chathamhouse.org
Why Carney’s pipeline gamble is a bad bet for Canadian taxpayers
Tensions with the US and Alberta are leading Prime Minister Carney to back new oil and gas infrastructure. Smoothing the path to electrification would be a better use of public funds.
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Chris Aylett @chrisaylett.bsky.social · 10/08/2026
Hard agree with all of these proposals but a levy on corporate social media (which lord knows we need less of) to fund local and independent media (which we desperately need more of) is 👌 petition.parliament.uk/petitions/76...
petition.parliament.uk
Petition: Ban foreign media ownership, enact a social media levy & new regulatory reform
Pass law to ban foreign & offshore ownership of UK media, enact a social-media levy to distribute media ownership across society & fund independent, local & cooperative-owned media. We believe democra...
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Reposted by Chris Aylett
Dani Rodrik @drodrik.bsky.social · 10/08/2026
My latest www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/c...
project-syndicate.org
Is China Really a Beggar-thy-Neighbor Power?
Dani Rodrik shows why the most common criticism of the country's surpluses and broader economic model falls flat.
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Reposted by Chris Aylett
Mayor of London, Sadiq Khan @london.gov.uk · 08/08/2026
Climate denial is getting louder. Reality is getting harder to ignore. When parks are brown, rivers are shrinking and firefighters are battling blazes across the globe, governments must accelerate climate action, not slow it down.
theguardian.com
This burning summer is the proof: the voices of climate denial aren’t just delusional, they’re deadly | Sadiq Khan
Look at our blazing forests and parched cities. Green policies aren’t a ‘luxury’, and we can’t burn more oil and gas. People need the truth, says London mayor Sadiq Khan
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Chris Aylett @chrisaylett.bsky.social · 07/08/2026
All over the world, Chinese EVs are structurally reducing the need to burn oil to get from A to B Put this in your Current Policies Scenario pipe and smoke it @iea.org @gavinjmaguire.bsky.social www.reuters.com/commentary/r...
Chart showing world imports of gasoline and world imports of Chinese EVs from 2018 - 2026. Gasoline imports decline in 2026 as Chinese EV imports spike
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Chris Aylett @chrisaylett.bsky.social · 07/08/2026
Good reality check from @noahjgordon.bsky.social However appealing, the idea that cheap clean tech and self-interest alone will save us from climate change is a fantasy Some necessary emissions-reducing actions simply don't have clear economic co-benefits www.ft.com/content/1aec...
ft.com
The global green transition won’t be driven by self-interest alone
States must actively tilt the playing field on renewable energy too
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Chris Aylett @chrisaylett.bsky.social · 05/08/2026
this is absolutely brilliant 👏
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Chris Aylett @chrisaylett.bsky.social · 04/08/2026
I think there's every chance Trump will move to restrict US oil exports, if pump prices carry on rising. What sort of America First populist wouldn't? (the answer: one that has also received bucketloads of cash from the oil industry)
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Chris Aylett @chrisaylett.bsky.social · 03/08/2026
"Measures to increase water efficiency (...) include a credit scheme where developers pay to offset the water increases their housing developments will cause" I encounter a lot of bad ideas in my line of work but this one is a belter www.theguardian.com/environment/...
theguardian.com
‘We cannot magic up more water’: the supply problems putting housing targets in England at risk
Council leaders say crumbling infrastructure and lack of water are jeopardising government’s plans for new homes
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Reposted by Chris Aylett
Palma Polyak @palmapolyak.bsky.social · 01/08/2026
Hungary's new government is tested very early. Paks nuclear plant is about to go offline for the first time in 44 years because the Danube is drying up. That's nearly half the country's electricity. Collapsed supply & gas prices spiking throughout the region. Just brutal. apnews.com/article/hung...
apnews.com
Hungary braces for a full shutdown of the Paks nuclear plant as the Danube River hits record lows
Hungary's only nuclear power plant is shutting down for the first time due to record-low water levels on the Danube River.
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Reposted by Chris Aylett
Charlotte Weatherill @ckweatherill.bsky.social · 29/07/2026
The point isn't to produce essays, it's to teach students how to think for fuck's sake. The minute you automate that, it's over. You might as well close the course. Which they're also doing. This is an attack on learning, and everyone is just shrugging.
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Reposted by Chris Aylett
Charlotte Weatherill @ckweatherill.bsky.social · 29/07/2026
Full of despair today. Massive lay offs in social sciences and humanities across the country, Burnham puts out a video saying 'AI can write an essay', and my university is busy integrating co-pilot into all staff and student computers. We are being told we're defunct and there's no resistance.
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Chris Aylett @chrisaylett.bsky.social · 27/07/2026
The diminishing returns from North Sea oil and gas will flow to a shrinking subset of firms and workers By contrast, the future of the clean energy system can be one of growth and the distribution of benefits across the country Manchesterism for energy www.chathamhouse.org/2026/07/why-...
chathamhouse.org
Why Burnham should back Britain's new clean energy system, not more North Sea drilling
Renewables and electrification could help the new prime minister deliver on his promise to distribute economic benefits across the UK.
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Adam Bell @adambell.bsky.social · 25/07/2026
If I can, let me explain today's Times story. This is less to do with renewables and much more to do with where generation is located and how it shows up at a system level. /1
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Chris Aylett @chrisaylett.bsky.social · 18/07/2026
A "dynamic" charge towards the 1970s, before we extracted over 90% of the oil and gas on the UK Continental Shelf And before we had viable alternatives which don't cook the planet
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Akshat Rathi @akshatrathi.bsky.social · 18/07/2026
"Andy Burnham will announce plans for new oil and gas drilling in the North Sea when he becomes prime minister on Monday, the BBC has been told." He intends to make a "dynamic" start, apparently. www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
bbc.co.uk
Burnham to announce plans for new North Sea oil and gas drilling
Drilling has become a controversial topic for the Labour party after the 2024 manifesto pledged to not issue new licences.
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Jack Hanly @snakespan.bsky.social · 16/07/2026
And all because of a byelection in Uxbridge
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Politics Theory Other @poltheoryother.bsky.social · 16/07/2026
The England fans are to blame. They were given a perfectly serviceable New Order song with some nice Italo piano and John Barnes rapping over the top. What do the estate agents dressed as crusaders choose to sing? Wonderwall and Three Lions.
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Seb Kennedy @sebkennedy.bsky.social · 16/07/2026
How high can it go? EU gas prices surge above €50 as markets finally reflect the reality that Hormuz won’t ever return to pre-war free passage. What’s amazing is it took so many months to get to this place.
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Reposted by Chris Aylett
Alice Hancock @alicemhancock.bsky.social · 13/07/2026
NEW: Dubai plans new port to bypass Strait of Hormuz in the latest sign of this crisis having much longer term impacts for trade and shipping: www.ft.com/content/1f97... Story with Middle East colleagues @financialtimes.com
ft.com
Dubai plans new port to bypass Strait of Hormuz
Project to build capacity on UAE’s east coast represents a major shift after US-Iran war
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Chris Aylett @chrisaylett.bsky.social · 13/07/2026
Trump reinstates the Carter Doctrine, with added extortion
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Chris Aylett @chrisaylett.bsky.social · 13/07/2026
'Open' and 'closed' have long since ceased to have any meaning in the context of Hormuz It's entirely a question of the risk appetite of vessel owners - which is surely diminishing by the day, as Iran launches missiles and the US spreads disinformation www.dw.com/en/iran-anno...
dw.com
Iran war: US claims Strait of Hormuz is 'open' amid strikes
US President Trump and the US military's Central Command insisted on Sunday that the Strait of Hormuz is open despite the Iranian navy declaring it closed. Both sides continue to exchange strikes.
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Chris Aylett @chrisaylett.bsky.social · 12/07/2026
Such a good piece Software 'creators' and 'contributors' that use generative AI externalize costs onto the reviewers and maintainers heroically trying to keep critical digital infra from collapsing "AI slop as a tragedy of the commons" Love the Atlas animation too www.ft.com/content/cec8...
ft.com
Who cleans up after the vibe-coding party?
Our obsession with AI code-writing tools is overwhelming the web’s unsung human caretakers
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Chris Aylett @chrisaylett.bsky.social · 03/07/2026
Incredible scenes in Russia - surge in demand for EVs A presumably unintended consequence of the illegal invasion of Ukraine
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Prof Friederike Otto @frediotto.bsky.social · 03/07/2026
250 years of burning fossil fuels fuelled a record shattering humid heatwave in Eastern North America for the 250th anniversary celebrations on 4th of July. Turning any outdoor activities into a dangerous health risk. - @wwattribution.bsky.social www.worldweatherattribution.org/fossil-fuels...
Timeseries of the highest 5-day wet bulb globe temperature over a region bounded by the box to 95°W to 67°W and 35°N to 50°N. 2026 by far highest value highlighted in pink.
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Chris Aylett @chrisaylett.bsky.social · 03/07/2026
Here's a brutal chart which illustrates why Canada might not want to bank on the sunlit uplands of fossil fuel demand growth in Asia h/t @katemac.bsky.social
Winners and Losers
The IEA overestimated gas growth in Asia and underestimated solar

Gas
• Forecast 547 TWh
• Actual 17 TWh

Solar
• Forecast 465 TWh
• Actual 1,333 TWh

Note: Shows expected growth in Asian power generation between 2018 and 2025, based on actual 2018 generation, actual 2025 generation, and the 2018 World Energy Outlook's Current Policies Scenario estimates for 2025. Actual 2025 generation figures are from Ember.
Source: International Energy Agency, Ember, Bloomberg Opinion calculations
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Chris Aylett @chrisaylett.bsky.social · 03/07/2026
Canada's new oil pipeline and five new LNG export terminals are a gamble on future growth in Asian oil and gas demand Given the trauma of the Hormuz shock, and the increasing penetration of demand-destroying EVs, solar and batteries, I'm not sure it'll pay off www.aljazeera.com/economy/2026...
aljazeera.com
Canada’s Carney secures deal for pipeline to expand oil exports beyond US
Ottawa says future pipeline will reduce economic dependence on the US amid Donald Trump's trade war.
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Chris Aylett @chrisaylett.bsky.social · 02/07/2026
1. Russia starts an illegal war in Ukraine 2. Ukraine strikes Russian oil infrastructure 3. Fuel shortages in Russia, prices surge 4. Russians start buying electric cars (only a handful, but notable in a country resolutely opposed to the energy transition) www.reuters.com/business/ene...
reuters.com
Russian fuel crisis prompts rush for electric cars
A Moscow ​car dealership is struggling to keep up with demand for new electric vehicles as ‌drivers look to sidestep a fuel crisis that has led to long queues and soaring prices across much of Russia.
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Chris Aylett @chrisaylett.bsky.social · 01/07/2026
According to @thesun.co.uk if the North Sea had been prioritised the UK “might just have the cheapest electricity in the world”. How many people have been misled by this utterly bogus and grotesquely irresponsible claim? Presumably @ipso.co.uk are investigating?
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Chris Aylett @chrisaylett.bsky.social · 30/06/2026
According to the Statistical Review, coal generation in the US increased 13% in 2025 So US carbon emissions grew 4 times faster (!) than those of China in 2025 and the US accounted for no less than 40% of growth in carbon emissions last year
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Chris Aylett @chrisaylett.bsky.social · 30/06/2026
Happy Statistical Review of World Energy day, to all those who celebrate it www.energyinst.org/statistical-...
energyinst.org
Home
The Energy Institute is, as of 2023, the home of the Statistical Review of World Energy, published previously for more than 70 years by bp. The Statistical Review analyses data on world energy markets...
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Mark Chadbourn @chadbourn.bsky.social · 28/06/2026
Europe, the last few days: 🇫🇷 France: Hottest day ever — 43.8°C 🇪🇸 Spain: Hottest June day — 42.7°C 🇩🇪 Germany: Hottest day ever — 41.5°C 🇨🇿 Czechia: Hottest day ever — 40.9°C 🇨🇭 Switzerland: Hottest June day — 38.8°C 🇩🇰 Denmark: Hottest day ever — 37°C 🇬🇧 UK: Hottest June day — 36.7°C #climatecrisis
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