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Charlie McCurdy

@charliemccurdy.bsky.social
185 followers 52 following 84 posts

Economist @ resolution foundation covering jobs, demographic change and regional inequalities.

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Charlie McCurdy @charliemccurdy.bsky.social · 25/08/2026
None of this is easy, but if we get it right it could the lives for millions of workers on insecure contracts. Predictable hours and income make it easier to plan things like childcare, finances and daily life - things many people of secure contracts take for granted.
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Charlie McCurdy @charliemccurdy.bsky.social · 25/08/2026
Decision 3️⃣: shift notice and cancellation In 2023, 73% of variable-hours workers received less than 2wks’ notice of shifts. Workers are also routinely left out of pocket when shifts are cancelled last-minute. It doesn't have to be that way.
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Charlie McCurdy @charliemccurdy.bsky.social · 25/08/2026
Decision 2️⃣: the “regularity” test. The govt. is considering a “regularity” test alongside the hours threshold, so the right kicks in only when someone works consistently across the reference period. We think this shd include a presence test + a minimum number of hrs above contracted ones.
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Charlie McCurdy @charliemccurdy.bsky.social · 25/08/2026
Of course, more workers in scope costs employers in admin & less flexibility to respond to demand. A threshold of 25 hrs wd bring big benefits to workers. But given the weakish labour market, and the success of slowly introducing the min wage, we shd start lower and raise the threshold over time.
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Charlie McCurdy @charliemccurdy.bsky.social · 25/08/2026
As well as this, anxiety about unpredictable hours and earnings persists for workers on a range of part-time hours.
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Charlie McCurdy @charliemccurdy.bsky.social · 25/08/2026
Why? Variable-hours workers tend to work substantial hours. New data kindly provided to us from @livingwageuk.bsky.social shows that 59% variable-hours workers contractually work up to 24 hours per week.
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Charlie McCurdy @charliemccurdy.bsky.social · 25/08/2026
The first element of the plan to ban exploitative ZHCs is a right to guaranteed hours (assessed over 12wks). Those on ZHCs, agency contracts and 'low' hours qualify. Decision 1️⃣: what counts as 'low' hours. The govt. has said it prefers 8-20hrs - but we think it should be high.
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Charlie McCurdy @charliemccurdy.bsky.social · 25/08/2026
At RF we first called for the proposed right to guaranteed hours over a decade(!) ago: www.resolutionfoundation.org/publications... It would be a massive deal for the 2.4m workers who feel ‘very anxious’ about unexpected changes to their hours.
resolutionfoundation.org
Zeroing In • Resolution Foundation
The use of zero hours contracts should be reformed to ensure that flexibility can be maintained and workers’ rights strengthened to help eradicate misuse. This report makes a number of recommendations...
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Charlie McCurdy @charliemccurdy.bsky.social · 25/08/2026
Today the Government's public consultation on its plan to end exploitative zero-hours contracts draws to a close. I've taken a look at 3 decisions they need to make, that, if they get right, could improve the lives of millions of workers. 👇 resolutionfoundation.substack.com/p/zero-to-hero
resolutionfoundation.substack.com
Zero to hero?
Three decisions, millions of workers, one chance to get it right
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Ruth Curtice @ruthcurtice.bsky.social · 14/07/2026
Ahead of Reeves delivering what most people assume will be her final Mansion House speech we’ve been looking at the data on how the economic picture has changed over the past two years. What is Reeves’ legacy?
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Resolution Foundation @resolutionfoundation.org · 29/06/2026
Today PM-in-waiting Andy Burnham MP says he wants to raise living standards in every postcode of the UK. But what is the state of regional inequality and living standards across the country? Earlier RF research found a mixed picture – some important progress, some firmly entrenched gaps 🧵 👇
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Charlie McCurdy @charliemccurdy.bsky.social · 10/06/2026
For much more on the recent baby bust and its wide-ranging implications, see: www.resolutionfoundation.org/publications...
resolutionfoundation.org
Bye bye baby • Resolution Foundation
This briefing explores Britain’s recent baby bust and whether it should be a cause for concern for policymakers.  Most developed countries are grappling with a falling birth rate, and the UK is no dif...
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Charlie McCurdy @charliemccurdy.bsky.social · 10/06/2026
New birth registration stats show that being childless at 30 is increasingly becoming the norm. Importantly, it’s too soon to know whether the recent fall in births will result in permanently fewer children or whether young people today will have (more) children later in life.
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Resolution Foundation @resolutionfoundation.org · 30/04/2026
This week, the ONS published their 2024-based population projections. One huge shift expected to arrive this year is that the number of births is set to fall below deaths. Our latest Substack considers what this means for public services and the economy➡️ buff.ly/DZEzpbc
Chart showing births minus deaths, outturn and 2024-based projections for the UK.

Since the start of the 20th Century, births in the UK have exceeded deaths in almost every year, only briefly interrupted by Covid-19 in 2020. But in 2025 births exceeded deaths by just 2,000. And the new projections confirm that the gap between births and deaths is expected to close for good from 2026.

Births in the UK have already been falling sharply: there were only 660,000 in 2024, effectively a record low, down roughly 150,000 since 2011. 2024-based projections don’t project any meaningful recovery, with births now expected to fall below 600,000 by 2056.
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Parth Pandya @parthpandya.bsky.social · 17/04/2026
New #ONS estimates of #families and #households in the #UK, up to 2025, were released today (www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopula...). The most eye-catching finding is the trend towards living with parents, especially so for young men. Here’s a thread with some key takeaways 🧵:
ons.gov.uk
Families and households in the UK - Office for National Statistics
Estimates of families (with and without children) and household types, including people living alone in the UK in 2025.
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Economics Observatory @econ-observatory.bsky.social · 10/02/2026
JUST PUBLISHED – From costs to culture: what’s behind falling fertility in rich countries? By @ann-berrington.bsky.social & Hill Kulu
buff.ly
From costs to culture: what’s behind falling fertility in rich countries? - Economics Observatory
Fertility rates have fallen rapidly in the UK and other high-income countries in recent years. Education, economic uncertainty and changing gender roles are among the factors that have played a part.…
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Resolution Foundation @resolutionfoundation.org · 11/12/2025
Kicking off at our event, Charlie McCurdy highlights why a Fair Pay Agreement in adult social care is sorely needed: care workers provide a huge amount of value to society, and lots of aspects of the job are rewarding…
Slide: Care work is high stakes and can be immensely rewarding…
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Charlie McCurdy @charliemccurdy.bsky.social · 27/11/2025
Worth saying that the public/ political debate is lagging behind the numbers. Polling suggest over half of people think migration went UP last year!
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Charlie McCurdy @charliemccurdy.bsky.social · 27/11/2025
New net migration figures show that international net-migration falls to 204k (like 2000s average). Partly reflects ONS revisions to how they calculate the figure. This is a big difference compared to the latest ONS projections, which don't forecast impact of policy or use the latest data.
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Charlie McCurdy @charliemccurdy.bsky.social · 14/10/2025
This should help cushion pensioners from any tax rises announced at the next Budget. RFs proposed 2p switch from NI to income tax would mean £250 extra taxes for pensioners, roughly 1/2 the state pension rise. For the Chancellor’s tax options in full see: www.resolutionfoundation.org/publications...
resolutionfoundation.org
Call of duties • Resolution Foundation
Ahead of the Budget, this report considers the options for the Government to respond decisively to a deterioration in the public finances while also making the tax system fairer and more efficient.
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Charlie McCurdy @charliemccurdy.bsky.social · 14/10/2025
Finally, today’s revised figures for total pay growth in the 3-months to July (4.8%) will set next year’s state pension increase. We calculate that the new state pension will rise by £576 to £12,582 a year.
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Charlie McCurdy @charliemccurdy.bsky.social · 14/10/2025
But slowing pay growth is bad news for workers. After adjusting for inflation, average weekly pay has increased by a meagre £1.50 over the last 11 months – just about enough to cover the cost of a Greggs sausage roll.
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Charlie McCurdy @charliemccurdy.bsky.social · 14/10/2025
Shorter-term measures suggest an even more rapid slowdown over the summer. Nominal private sector pay growth slowed to annualised rate of 3.5% in the 3-months to August compared to the previous 3-months.
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Charlie McCurdy @charliemccurdy.bsky.social · 14/10/2025
This weakening jobs market is feeding through into pay, something the Bank of England will be reassured to see. Annualised regular nominal pay grew by 4.7% in the 3-months to August – a rate not seen since 2022.
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Charlie McCurdy @charliemccurdy.bsky.social · 14/10/2025
And in further signs of a cooling labour market, we’ve also seen a continued gradual rise in the unemployment rate (where we think the LFS rate is much more accurate), up to 4.8% in the latest data. Vacancies have also fallen for the 39th month in a row.
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Charlie McCurdy @charliemccurdy.bsky.social · 14/10/2025
Combined with population data, we estimate an employment rate of 75.3% in August and 75.2% in September. (The employment *rate* is falling even though jobs aren’t, because the population is growing.) The ONS’ LFS-based rate is also falling, although there are still questions around this data.
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Charlie McCurdy @charliemccurdy.bsky.social · 14/10/2025
The number of payrolled employees has remained steady in recent months, after falling by 127,000 between Oct 2024 and June 2025. Employee jobs rose marginally (by 10k) in August and early estimates suggest they fell back by about the same amount in September.
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Charlie McCurdy @charliemccurdy.bsky.social · 14/10/2025
Today’s data show that a weakening jobs market is feeding through into pay. Depressing stat of the day: real weekly wages have increased by just £1.50 since Sep 2024. Here is our thread (from me and @hannahslaughter.bsky.social).
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Nye Cominetti @nyecominetti.bsky.social · 16/09/2025
Today’s ONS data show a labour market continuing to cool, but there are signs of calming after a jobs crunch in the first part of 2025. Here is our thread (fom me and @charliemccurdy.bsky.social) Standout stat if you can't make it to the end: real wages haven't grown since October
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Jonathan Portes @jdportes.bsky.social · 12/09/2025
DO NOT EXTEND ILR WAITING TIME TO TEN YEARS DEFINITELY DO NOT CHANGE THE RULES ON PEOPLE WHO ARE ALREADY HERE YOU TOTAL LUNATICS Long, measuredband balanced from @benansell.bsky.social on how to reform the immigration system (fwiw I mostly agree). benansell.substack.com/p/select-and...
benansell.substack.com
Select and Respect
How to create a UK immigration policy that can command public support
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Louise Murphy @louisemurphy.bsky.social · 11/09/2025
New UC data out today shows that more than a third (37%) of all UC claimants are in receipt of UC health, up from 32% this time last year. Here’s a short @resfoundation.bsky.social thread, with @benbgeiger.bsky.social, summarising the key takeaways...
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Sunder Katwala (sundersays) @sundersays.bsky.social · 21/08/2025
Home office statistics for year to June 2025 Visas are 852k in 2024-25 (Peaked 1.4 million in 2023) Year in year Work visas down 36% [21k health/care visas; peaked 200k] Study visas down 4% Study dependent visas down 81% Family visas down 23% Asylum claims up 14% www.gov.uk/government/s...
gov.uk
Summary of latest statistics
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Louise Murphy @louisemurphy.bsky.social · 21/08/2025
The ONS released new NEETs data this morning, suggesting that almost a million (948k) 16-24-year-olds are not in education, employment or training. Although LFS issues mean that we shouldn't put too much weight on these figures, there are reasons to be concerned about trends in youth employment...
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Charlie McCurdy @charliemccurdy.bsky.social · 30/07/2025
This unequal geography of ageing in England & Wales represents all sorts of challenges for policymakers. Some areas like Westminster & Lambeth are seeing big drops in primary school-age children, which creates challenges for schools.
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Charlie McCurdy @charliemccurdy.bsky.social · 30/07/2025
More generally, there's been an unequal geography of ageing with the old rural areas ageing fastest. E.g. today's data shows median age has risen by 5! years in West Devon and Isle of Wight since 2011. 👴 At the same time, Salford and Havering's median age has fallen by 2 years since 2011. 🧒
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Charlie McCurdy @charliemccurdy.bsky.social · 30/07/2025
Why has London aged so fast? 1) London's birth rate has fallen faster than the national trend. 2) International migration has shifted somewhat to other big cities. 3) Londoners are staying put more so than in the past.
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Charlie McCurdy @charliemccurdy.bsky.social · 30/07/2025
London is also the fastest-ageing major city in England & Wales; the capital's median age has risen by 2-years since 2011 compared to falls of 5 months in Bristol & Liverpool.
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Charlie McCurdy @charliemccurdy.bsky.social · 30/07/2025
Lots going on beneath the headline figures. Geographically speaking, London stands out where we find some of the fastest growing (like Barking & Dagenham) and fastest falling populations (e.g. Lambeth).
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Charlie McCurdy @charliemccurdy.bsky.social · 30/07/2025
More timely data up to the end of 2024 (long-term international migration stats) and beyond (visa applications) shows that migration has continued to fall. We can therefore expect population growth to slow in 2025.
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Charlie McCurdy @charliemccurdy.bsky.social · 30/07/2025
As the ONS chart makes clear, recent population growth has virtually all been driven by record international high migration since around 2021. However, mid-2024 net migration (690k) is down on mid-2023 (830k). (Todays data relates to the middle of 2024).
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Charlie McCurdy @charliemccurdy.bsky.social · 30/07/2025
New ONS population data covering England and Wales up to the middle of 2024. Killer chart from @georginasturge.bsky.social shows population growth has been going gangbusters in recent years, growing at a higher rate than any period since the World Wars. More below👇
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Charlie McCurdy @charliemccurdy.bsky.social · 30/07/2025
More generally, there's been an unequal geography of ageing with the old rural areas ageing fastest. E.g. today's data shows median age has risen by 5! years in West Devon and Isle of Wight since 2011. 👴 At the same time, Salford and Havering's median age has fallen by 2 years since 2011. 🧒
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Charlie McCurdy @charliemccurdy.bsky.social · 30/07/2025
Why has London aged so fast? 1) London's birth rate has fallen faster than the national trend. 2) International migration has shifted somewhat to other big cities. 3) Londoners are staying put.
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Charlie McCurdy @charliemccurdy.bsky.social · 30/07/2025
London is also the fastest-ageing major city in England & Wales; the capital's median age has risen by 2-years since 2011 compared to falls of 5 months in Bristol & Liverpool.
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Charlie McCurdy @charliemccurdy.bsky.social · 30/07/2025
Lots going on beneath the headline figures. Geographically speaking, London stands out where we find some of the fastest growing (like Barking & Dagenham) and fastest falling populations (e.g. Lambeth).
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Charlie McCurdy @charliemccurdy.bsky.social · 30/07/2025
More timely data up to the end of 2024 (long-term international migration stats) and beyond (visa applications) shows that migration has continued to fall. We can therefore expect population growth to slow in 2025.
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Charlie McCurdy @charliemccurdy.bsky.social · 30/07/2025
As the ONS chart makes clear, recent population growth has virtually all been driven by record international high migration since around 2021. However, mid-2024 net migration (690k) is down on mid-2023 (830k). (Note todays data relates to the middle of 2024).
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Charlie McCurdy @charliemccurdy.bsky.social · 30/07/2025
Much more on the geography of ageing in here: www.resolutionfoundation.org/publications...
resolutionfoundation.org
Ageing in the fast and slow lane • Resolution Foundation
Like most countries, the UK is ageing – over the past five decades its median age has risen from 34 to 41. This deep demographic trend has all sorts of implications for public policy, not least the ne...
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Charlie McCurdy @charliemccurdy.bsky.social · 30/07/2025
This unequal geography of ageing in England & Wales represents all sorts of challenges for policymakers. Some areas like Westminster & Lambeth are seeing big drops in primary school-age children, which creates challenges for schools.
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Charlie McCurdy @charliemccurdy.bsky.social · 30/07/2025
More generally, there's been an unequal geography of ageing with the old rural areas ageing fastest. E.g. today's data shows median age has risen by 5! years in West Devon and Isle of Wight since 2011. 👴 At the same time, Salford and Havering's median age has fallen by 2 years since 2011. 🧒
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