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Marc Schwager

@cavedalerhones.bsky.social
162 followers 171 following 319 posts

Growing Rhone Varietals on the west slopes of Mt Veeder in the Moon Mt AVA. Local flora and fauna of the Mayacamas. Fire info if anything gets close. K6GSM

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Reposted by Marc Schwager
NWS Bay Area Bot @nwsbayareabot.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
🌡️ HEAT ADVISORY EXTENDED: The Heat Advisory has been extended through 10 PM Monday and now includes the North Bay Interior Valleys. 📈 Inland highs: Mid 90s–103°F 🌙 High elevation lows in the upper 60s to mid 70s offer little relie... x.com/NWSBayArea/status/21060905729…
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Zack Labe @zacklabe.com · 02/10/2026
This is pretty wild... the average global sea surface temperature (outside of the polar regions) is still above 70°F (21.1°C) through the end of September. This is significantly above the prior record. We'll cover this in our October climate briefing: climatecentral-org.zoom.us/webinar/regi... 🌊
Line graph time series of daily global mean sea surface temperatures from 1982 to 2026. This year is currently at record high for this time of year. Data is from NOAA OISSTv2.1, and the graphic is created by Climate Central at https://www.climatecentral.org/climate-briefings.
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NWS Bay Area Bot @nwsbayareabot.bsky.social · 07/09/2026
A Heat Advisory is in effect for the Bay Area and Central Coast from 10 AM Wednesday to 10 PM Thursday. Interior highs 90°F–105°F, coast mid-70s to low-90s. Poor overnight recovery in the hills (70s-80s). Stay hydrated and limit outdoor acti... x.com/NWSBayArea/status/20970299329…
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Cian 🏳️‍🌈🏳️‍⚧️ (he/him) @cbdawson.bsky.social · 03/09/2026
As always, @drwendyrocks.bsky.social doing clear, succinct, and effective scicomm about San Francisco Bay Area earthquake risks. Locals, share with your people! It's also on YouTube at youtube.com/shorts/p3yyM...
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Christina Toms @christinatoms.bsky.social · 02/09/2026
Talked about this Karl Malamud-Roam (IYKYK) last week. He expects a baseline rise of 10-12 inches for 10-12 months. Buckle up!
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NWS Bay Area Bot @nwsbayareabot.bsky.social · 26/08/2026
🌧️We are monitoring a slight chance of beneficial rainfall for the Bay Area and Central Coast late Thursday into Friday. Some tropical moisture will be drawn into the state, but we don't know exact rainfall amounts and timing. Check back wi... x.com/NWSBayArea/status/20925164512…
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Daniel Swain @weatherwest.bsky.social · 20/08/2026
Given rising interest in the rapidly strengthening El Niño event in the tropical Pacific Ocean, I've created a one-page fact sheet succinctly describing what El Niño is, this year's (remarkable) forecast, and potential impacts from California to global scales. [Thread]
JPEG version of a 1-page Factsheet: El Niño 2026-2027: A Potentially Historic Global Climate Event
By Daniel Swain, PhD | August 2026

There is a banner image depicting projected warming of the Pacific Ocean by early winter.

The content begins:
"What is El Niño?
El Niño is the warm phase of a natural cycle, known as El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), that occurs roughly every 2-7 years in the tropical Pacific Ocean. During El Niño events, the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean warms to well above typical levels. El Niño directly affects local climate in the countries closest to the unusually warm ocean waters, but can also indirectly influence the climate of distant regions thousands of miles away. During the strongest events, El Niño can profoundly affect climate even on global scales, causing temporary planetary warming and disrupting large-scale precipitation patterns..."
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Daniel Swain @weatherwest.bsky.social · 12/08/2026
My personal and professional advice to those in, near, and even (in some cases) outside of known flood zones is to seriously consider obtaining flood insurance this year, since standard policies usually exclude flooding from storms or oceanic inundation.
youtu.be
Why this very strong El Niño year might be a good time to buy flood insurance in California
The anticipated very strong to historically strong El Niño event will likely increase the odds of a very wet winter California, as well as raise sea levels at the coast and in within inland bays and estuaries. As a result, there will likely be an increased risk of flooding in California during winte
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Dr. Wendy Bohon @drwendyrocks.bsky.social · 10/08/2026
Preliminary information about the M7.4 earthquake in Colombia
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Liberty View @libertyview.bsky.social · 10/08/2026
Salsa and guacamole are not that hard to make at home, a lot cheaper, and you can adjust the flavor to your taste. And for gods sakes, stop buying packaged salads! They're a ripoff even if they're not infected.
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Zack Labe @zacklabe.com · 07/08/2026
Preliminary data shows that we may have set a new all-time record high for the daily global average sea surface temperature. The warmth in the ocean has already been quite remarkable over the last several months this year. Find more of our briefing graphics: www.climatecentral.org/climate-brie... 🌊
Line graph time series of daily global mean sea surface temperatures from 1982 to 2026. This year is currently at record high for this time of year. Data is from NOAA OISSTv2.1, and the graphic is created by Climate Central.
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Daniel Swain @weatherwest.bsky.social · 06/08/2026
Aug update from ECMWF predictive ensemble is genuinely extraordinary from extreme #ElNiño perspective. One implication: it is now indicating not only 70-100% odds of above avg winter precip California-wide, but also 70-100% odds of DJF 26-27 being among the top 20% of wettest CA winters (!).
Map showing ECMWF ensemble DJF 2026-7 predicted precipitation by tercile status (i.e., most likely well above, well below, or near-average). All of the CA coast is painted the brightest color, indicating 70-100% odds of a winter among the wettest third of all historical winters.Map showing ECMWF ensemble DJF 2026-7 predicted precipitation. All of the CA coast is painted the bluest color, indicating well below average odds of a winter in the driest 20% of all winters.Map showing ECMWF ensemble DJF 2026-7 predicted precipitation. All of the CA coast is painted the brightest orange color, indicating well above average odds of a winter in the wettest 20% of all CA winters.
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Marc Schwager @cavedalerhones.bsky.social · 06/08/2026
Pressing off Cabernet that is right at veraison in order to help a friend with a non-alcoholic wine project. Brix at 17 (sugar %). Normal wine grapes at harvest around 24%. #winemaking
A full 1/2 ton picking bin with green and red grapes
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Zack Labe @zacklabe.com · 05/08/2026
Wednesday El Niño update - Record warmth continues in the key monitoring region called Niño 3.4, which is due to both the long-term warming of the tropics (climate change) and the developing El Niño. Over the last 7 days, there has been a steady warming across the central Pacific. Data: OISSTv2.1 🌊
Line graph time series of daily sea surface temperature anomalies in the Nino3.4 region. Years are shown from 1982 to 2025 in shades of blue to light yellow, and 2026 is shown in red. Climatologically, the largest anomalies are during the boreal winter in terms of magnitude. Data is from OISSTv2.1. Map of August 4, 2026 average sea surface temperature anomalies in the ENSO monitoring regions. Data is from NOAA OISSTv2.1 with anomalies relative to a 1991-2020 baseline.Graphic showing the 1-week change in sea surface temperature anomalies across the tropical eastern Pacific Ocean from July 28, 2026 to August 4, 2026. Data is from NOAA OISSTv2.1Graphic showing the 4-week change in sea surface temperature anomalies across the tropical eastern Pacific Ocean from July 5, 2026 to August 4, 2026. Data is from NOAA OISSTv2.1
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NWS Bay Area Bot @nwsbayareabot.bsky.social · 03/08/2026
⚠️Heat Advisory in effect from 10 AM to 10 PM Monday for the interior East Bay, South Bay, and interior North Bay Mountains. High temperatures will be in the mid 90s to mid 100s. Stay hydrated, limit time outdoors, do not leave children or p... x.com/NWSBayArea/status/20841608832…
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Daniel Swain @weatherwest.bsky.social · 02/08/2026
#OldTrailsFire in Spokane now appears to be most destructive wildfire in WA State history by wide margin (650+ structures lost), w/additional TBD losses nearby. Other PacNW fires actively burning, though less destructive, are far larger & could burn for weeks amid severe drought.
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Rob Mayeda NBC Bay Area @robmayeda.bsky.social · 02/08/2026
Smoke from the #FelizFire near Hopland drifting south into the North Bay 8/1/2026
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Nahel Belgherze @wxnb.bsky.social · 31/07/2026
Bordeaux, France, has now recorded more days above 40°C in 2026 alone than during the entire 105-year period from 1920 (when observations began) to 2025. This is deeply shocking.
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Prof Gavin Yamey MD MPH @gavinyamey.bsky.social · 28/07/2026
This is a great public service by @angierasmussen.bsky.social, covering a pathetic McCarthyite anti-science show trial By the way, a medical student friend of mine just had the opportunity to do clinical rounds with Dr Fauci and was incredibly inspired
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Marc Schwager @cavedalerhones.bsky.social · 27/07/2026
Of all the varietals we grow, i think Grenache is the prettiest. #vineyard
Close up of a bunch of grapes on a vine with green, pink, and purple berries
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Daniel Swain @weatherwest.bsky.social · 25/07/2026
Growing signs of prolonged & potentially intense heatwave across SW by early Aug. A broad Four Corners ridge will strengthen far beyond usual levels on its western flank, possibly due in part to indirect effects from a yet-to-develop East Pacific hurricane. Details TBD. #CAwx
Forecast from ECMWF ensemble showing 500mb GPH anomalies (normalized) around early August. They are highly anomalously positive across the SW US.
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NWS Bay Area Bot @nwsbayareabot.bsky.social · 21/07/2026
Heating up today! A Heat Advisory is in effect through 9 PM Tuesday for interior areas, with highs in the mid-90s to low 100s. Excludes San Francisco & immediate Pacific coast. Drink water and take breaks! ☀️🥤 #CAwx #BayAreaWX x.com/NWSBayArea/status/20796261522…
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Andrew Dessler @andrewdessler.com · 14/07/2026
🚨reporters working on stories about the NAS extreme event attribution report 🚨 DO NOT FRAME ANY STORY AS "CAN WE BELIEVE EXTREME EVENT ATTRIBUTION RESEARCH?" THE ACTUAL STORY IS: FOSSIL-FUEL INTERESTS ARE WETTING THEIR PANTS ABOUT THIS AND WILL DO ANYTHING TO TRY TO STOP IT.
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NWS Bay Area Bot @nwsbayareabot.bsky.social · 09/07/2026
Mid/upper atmospheric moisture increases late this weekend The pattern will favor thunderstorms with little to no precipitation. Lightning strikes and gusty winds on dry vegetation may increase the potential for fire starts and spread. Check bac... x.com/NWSBayArea/status/20750829927…
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Tara Setmayer @tarasetmayer.bsky.social · 26/06/2026
💔A promise made to my grandfather before he died is now at risk because of State Farm& their terrible tactics. State Farm is NOT a good neighbor. Our 100 yr family property was destroyed & in danger of being lost. We need your help to fight back & preserve our legacy. gofund.me/4b1a2b26b
gofund.me
Donate to Help Save Our Family Home and 100 Year Legacy , organized by Tara Setmayer
Help me keep a promise to my Grandfather, before It’s too late. Be… Tara Setmayer needs your support for Help Save Our Family Home and 100 Year Legacy
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Dr. Genevieve Guenther (she/they) @doctorvive.bsky.social · 25/06/2026
I must point out that the 2021 Princeton Net Zero America study — which, mind you, was also funded by BP (and ExxonMobil!) — included about 10gt of cumulative carbon sequestration by 2050 in what they represented as the most "cost-effective" pathway to US decarbonization.
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Daniel Swain @weatherwest.bsky.social · 22/06/2026
Next, late Jun troughing will bring cooler temps (mitigating factor), but also widespread and locally strong winds & little precip (aggravating factors). In fact, ensembles are currently suggesting notable summer wind event (a known fire outbreak trigger if following heatwave).
Map from ECMWF ensemble "shift of the tails" index (an internally consistent measure of extremity of a predicted variable in historical context) for wind speeds across the West next weekend. At least some portion of nearly every western state will see elevated risk of strong summer winds.
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Daniel Swain @weatherwest.bsky.social · 22/06/2026
Signs pointing toward extended period of elevated to critical fire weather across Western U.S. through early Jul. Antecedent conditions: Recent anomalous heat (esp. PacNW), plus widespread severe to extreme drought, have primed vegetation (via fuel drying). Then... [Thread]
Map from ECMWF ensemble depicting a pronounced and unusual summer trough across the interior West next weekend--the catalyst for a significant summer wind event.
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Marc Schwager @cavedalerhones.bsky.social · 17/06/2026
And now for something completely different. #art #Paris www.theguardian.com/artanddesign...
theguardian.com
‘It’s supposed to make you uncomfortable’: French artist JR on transforming Paris’ oldest bridge into a cave
‘France’s Banksy’ has created a monumental art installation over Paris’ oldest bridge. And visitors to La Caverne du Pont Neuf are in for an uncomfortable and unforgettable crossing
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Laura Hollister @xenolith.bsky.social · 16/06/2026
This is incredible and accurate!
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Daniel Swain @weatherwest.bsky.social · 12/06/2026
Okay, folks: The big El Niño update is now out on Weather West! This sure looks like it's going to be a dramatic year from a global climate perspective, and there are major implications for extreme events (across California, the U.S. West, & well beyond).
weatherwest.com
Special update: Rising odds of a strong-to-historic El Niño event in 2026, with growing likelihood of significant regional-to-global scale impacts - Weather West
June 11, 2026 - Daniel Swain - A quick refresher: What is El Niño and how can it affect global weather patterns? El Niño is the warm phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a semi-regular recurring cycle that transfers vast amounts of heat and momentum from the tropical Pacific to the global atmosphere. It is triggered every 3–7 years when the #
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Kent Porter @kpphotos.bsky.social · 09/06/2026
The #PutahFire on the Solano/Napa County line, Monday evening. @pressdemo.bsky.social @calfirel
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Kent Porter @kpphotos.bsky.social · 09/06/2026
Red flag warnings expands to include Sonoma, Napa and East Bay hills, beginning Wednesday morning. @pressdemo.bsky.social
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Randall Grahm @randallgrahm.bsky.social · 05/06/2026
Vive Clos Cibonne (et le Tibouren).
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ALERTCalifornia @alertcalifornia.bsky.social · 04/06/2026
The small #BearFire vegetation fire north east of Mariposa is close to ALERTCalifornia's Mt. Bullion camera. See live conditions and the emergency response at bit.ly/49FLeIB
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Daniel Swain @weatherwest.bsky.social · 25/05/2026
Yet another cut-off low this week in CA, w/unsettled late May conditions (& also, a temporary reprieve re: the NorCal, but not SoCal, marine heatwave). But warmer weather associated w/PacNW ridging looks likely in June. Plus: a bunch of new YouTube links!
weatherwest.com
Another late-spring cut-off to bring mountain showers, coastal drizzle, and cooler temperatures before likely June warm-up - Weather West
May 25, 2026 - Daniel Swain - A dynamic and changeable spring 2026 weather pattern in California amid ongoing marine heatwave As we approach the end of May, it's worth looking back at the past couple of months of highly changeable weather conditions across California and the West. Spring is always, to some degree, a tumultuous weather period, as it heralds the #
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NWS Bay Area Bot @nwsbayareabot.bsky.social · 20/05/2026
Elevated fire weather conditions continue through Thursday. Afternoons will be the time frame of most concern when relative humidity is lowest and winds are strongest with gusts up to 30 mph across ridgelines and through gaps and passes. Do your... x.com/NWSBayArea/status/20569076459…
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Rob Mayeda NBC Bay Area @robmayeda.bsky.social · 18/05/2026
Approaching 7pm: Unplanned wind-related outages easily outnumbering impacts from the more isolated planned PSPS outages inland. As wind speeds stay strong overnight, additional outages and tree impacts are likely 5/17/2026 #CAwx pgealerts.alerts.pge.com/outage-tools...
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NWS Bay Area Bot @nwsbayareabot.bsky.social · 17/05/2026
WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM SUNDAY THIS EVENING TO 11 AM PDT MONDAY For The Santa Cruz Mountains, North Bay Interior Mountains, Eastern Santa Clara Hills, and East Bay Hills. North to NE winds 15 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph. Local g... x.com/NWSBayArea/status/20559809711…
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NWS Bay Area Bot @nwsbayareabot.bsky.social · 15/05/2026
Strong Wind Gusts This Weekend 🌬️ 🚩 What: W-NW gusts of 25-35 mph (valleys) & 35-50 mph (coast/ridges). ⏰ When: Now through Monday morning. Strongest Sat & Sun. ⚠️ Impacts: Difficult driving for high-profile vehicles, falling branc... x.com/NWSBayArea/status/20553659649…
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Daniel Swain @weatherwest.bsky.social · 13/05/2026
I know there's tremendous interest right now surrounding growing potential for a strong El Niño event, or even a so-called "super" El Niño. In this just-recorded live session, I break down the current forecast, its implications, and associated caveats. www.youtube.com/live/rZvJPlP...
youtube.com
Rising odds of very strong El Niño event in 2026: What might it mean for U.S. West & rest of world?
YouTube video by Weather West
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s. e. smith @sesmith.lol · 07/05/2026
A fun Central Valley geology read for all the rockheads.
baynature.org
Volcano Baby
How the Sutter Buttes turned up, all alone, in the Central Valley.
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Daniel Swain @weatherwest.bsky.social · 03/05/2026
Looking ahead to mid-May, there is now pretty strong inter-ensemble agreement regarding the development of a much more pronounced Western ridge once again, with the potential for a significant heatwave at that time. This would mark a major pattern shift, so stay tuned!
Map of western U.S. depicting 500mb GPH anomalies in mi-May (as predicted by ECMWF ensemble). A strong ridge is clearly apparent, centered near the West Coast.
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Rob Mayeda NBC Bay Area @robmayeda.bsky.social · 20/04/2026
Rain starting to return to the Bay Area this morning, should see increasing wind and rain into the PM/evening with thunderstorms possible Tuesday. 4/20/2026
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Marc Schwager @cavedalerhones.bsky.social · 15/04/2026
Offck m I’m kill cmm j 3!.$‘I’ll. C K N b
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NWS Bay Area Bot @nwsbayareabot.bsky.social · 12/04/2026
A special weather statement has been issued for Santa Rosa CA, Petaluma CA and Rohnert Park CA until 9:45 PM PDT x.com/NWSBayArea/status/20431799216…
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Marc Schwager @cavedalerhones.bsky.social · 11/04/2026
About time, and sorely needed considering the politics of today. www.theguardian.com/law/2026/apr...
theguardian.com
US appeals court declares 158-year-old home distilling ban unconstitutional
Judge said ban, which originated in Reconstruction era to thwart liquor tax evasion, actually reduced tax revenue
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Daniel Swain @weatherwest.bsky.social · 11/04/2026
Still expecting an unusually strong cold frontal passage (by NorCal April standards) later this PM. Expect a period of intense rainfall & embedded thunderstorms with gusty wind at lower elevs (locally severe near SF Bay), plus a burst of heavy & accumulating Sierra snowfall. #CAwx
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NWS Bay Area Bot @nwsbayareabot.bsky.social · 01/04/2026
🌡️Every single weather station we have recorded the warmest March on record. Most would have been the warmest April too. More sites below🧵 x.com/NWSBayArea/status/20393483288…
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Angie Rasmussen @angierasmussen.bsky.social · 31/03/2026
Maybe you heard somewhere that the COVID-19 pandemic started with a lab leak? NO! That is NOT what the evidence shows. It was not a goddamn lab leak. I’ve had enough. Here is what the evidence shows: it was zoonotic spillover at the market rasmussenretorts.substack.com/p/five-reaso...
rasmussenretorts.substack.com
Five Reasons Why It Still Wasn't a Lab Leak
Time for some of that civil disagreement that the NIH Director can't get enough of
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