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Berkeley Earth

@berkeleyearth.org
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We're an independent 501c3 non-profit organization working to make climate data open and accessible. 📍Berkeley, CA @ www.berkeleyearth.org 💲donate.berkeleyearth.org

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Reposted by Berkeley Earth
Robert Rohde @rarohde.bsky.social · 9h
Temperatures in the Central Pacific El Niño region are the hottest ever measured (top panel), and far above any other El Niño at this time of year. But, if you adjust for the warming of the global ocean, the current trajectory is not so different from other very strong events.
Two panel plot showing daily time series of temperature anomalies in the Central Pacific Nino3.4 region during the last four strongest El Niño events without and with correction for changes in global ocean mean temperature.
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Reposted by Berkeley Earth
Shel Winkley @shelwinkleywx.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
With three months left to go, the folks at @berkeleyearth.org are all but certain that 2026 will land as the all-time HOTTEST year on record for this blue marble we call Earth. Currently, the list stands as: #1: 2024 #2: 2023 #3: 2025 #4: 2016 #5: 2020
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Berkeley Earth @berkeleyearth.org · 24/09/2026
Happening in just under 30minutes…still time to register via the link below. See you there!
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Reposted by Berkeley Earth
Zeke Hausfather @zekehausfather.com · 22/09/2026
I have a new piece out in Nature today on the record-breaking 2026/2027 El Niño, what impacts we should expect, and how governments can prepare. The Niño3.4 region is currently running more than 1C hotter than any prior event on record, and we remain months away from the peak www.nature.com/artic...
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Reposted by Berkeley Earth
Robert Rohde @rarohde.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
Berkeley Earth will be holding our monthly climate briefing on Thursday. Safe to say that there is a lot going on with weather and climate the moment. 8 AM PT / 11 AM ET / 5 PM CET It is geared towards the media, but anyone is welcome. us02web.zoom.us/webinar/regi...
Press briefing announcement cover image.
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Reposted by Berkeley Earth
Zeke Hausfather @zekehausfather.com · 21/09/2026
This year's El Niño event is moving into record territory, with the daily Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) tying the record previously set during the 2015/2016 super-El Niño. My latest over at Carbon Brief: www.carbonbrief.org/...
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Berkeley Earth @berkeleyearth.org · 17/09/2026
Berkeley Earth will be hosting our next Monthly Press Briefing on Thursday 9/24 at 8amPDT/5pmCET. August was eventful; we're extending this month's briefing to a *full hour* to accommodate the full scope of our August 2026 update, with live Q&A to follow. 🔗 to register: tinyurl.com/mr33hhk4
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Reposted by Berkeley Earth
Robert Rohde @rarohde.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
This year produced the hottest summer in the history of modern France. Some of that record is down to the specific weather patterns that occurred this year, but global warming deserves a large share of the credit for generally making French summers hotter over time.
Time series plot of June to August national mean temperature anomalies for France.  Shown relative to the 1850-1900 average.  Data from Berkeley Earth.
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Reposted by Berkeley Earth
Zeke Hausfather @zekehausfather.com · 08/09/2026
After a nearly month-long plateau Nino3.4 region temperatures (ONI) are on their way back up. We've now surpassed 1982/1983 and are only behind 2015/2016 in terms of maximum daily values. And its only early September.
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Berkeley Earth @berkeleyearth.org · 02/09/2026
News we could not be more excited to share: the description paper of our high-resolution dataset is now available for review and comment at ESSD. The record provides global coverage at 0.25° resolution, built from 58,311 weather stations extending back to 1750. Pre-print: tinyurl.com/9dw7jbnf
tinyurl.com
Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature – High-Resolution (BEST-HR): a 0.25° Global Gridded Temperature Data Set for Climate Monitoring
Abstract. We present version 2 of the Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature dataset, a global observational temperature record that now features enhanced spatial resolution (0.25° × 0.25°) and a new regr...
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Reposted by Berkeley Earth
Zeke Hausfather @zekehausfather.com · 01/09/2026
The emissions scenarios underlying the next generation of climate model runs that will be featured in the upcoming IPCC 7th Assessment Report are officially out! I have a big new explainer over at Carbon Brief taking an in-depth look at what they mean and whats changed: www.carbonbrief.org/...
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Berkeley Earth @berkeleyearth.org · 17/08/2026
To what extent can the upcoming El Niño give us a preview of a future, warmer climate? Over at the Climate Brink, @zekehausfather.com and @andrewdessler.com break down the scientific nuances behind framing El Niño as a "time machine" to predict future the climate. tinyurl.com/47ny7fjh
tinyurl.com
Is this El Niño a glimpse of a future, hotter Earth?
There are important differences between long-term global warming and El Niño warming
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Reposted by Berkeley Earth
Robert Rohde @rarohde.bsky.social · 14/08/2026
With record-breaking heatwaves, France just had both its warmest June and July on record. Systematic collection of weather data basically began in Western Europe, giving Europe the longest thermometer-based histories in the world. After more than 250 years, we have changed the climate. 🧪
Time series graph of June-July average temperature in France relative to the 1850-1900 baseline.  Data from Berkeley Earth.
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Berkeley Earth @berkeleyearth.org · 14/08/2026
“Human emissions are adding a permanent El Niño worth of heat to the climate system each decade.” Berkeley Earth's @zekehausfather.com spoke with @bennollweather.bsky.social @washingtonpost.com about the future preview coming via this year's record-setting El Niño. Gift link: wapo.st/4htwiBY
washingtonpost.com
We’ll soon get a glimpse of future temperatures, thanks to this record El Niño
It will act like a climate time machine, temporarily pushing temperatures to levels that otherwise might not be felt for a decade or so.
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Berkeley Earth @berkeleyearth.org · 14/08/2026
Berkeley Earth's Temperature Update for July 2026 is now available, including updates on the rapidly-strengthening El Niño and what we can expect from the remainder of 2026. The full text is available here: berkeleyearth.org/july-2026-te...
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Reposted by Berkeley Earth
Robinson Meyer @robinsonmeyer.bsky.social · 13/08/2026
NEW SHIFT KEY: I spoke to the great @zekehausfather.com about why the current El Niño is breaking records (and poised to break more), what that will mean for global weather patterns, and whether we can now definitively say global warming is accelerating heatmap.news/podcast/shif...
heatmap.news
Why This El Niño Looks Like a Monster
Rob checks in on this season’s supercharged ocean temperatures with climate researcher Zeke Hausfather.
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Reposted by Berkeley Earth
Zeke Hausfather @zekehausfather.com · 12/08/2026
We will be having our Berkeley Earth monthly press briefing tomorrow at 8 AM Pacific, covering July global temperatures, the rapidly developing El Nino event, and what to expect for the remainder of 2026 and for 2027. Register here to join: us02web.zoom.us/webi...
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Berkeley Earth @berkeleyearth.org · 11/08/2026
An eventful month, an eventful year, and we are still months away from the peak of an already record-setting El Niño...join us this Thurs 8/13 for updates from our July report, including the most recent El Niño forecasts, followed by live Q&A. Registration is required: tinyurl.com/mvpuwhej
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Reposted by Berkeley Earth
Zeke Hausfather @zekehausfather.com · 05/08/2026
The rise in Niño 3.4 region sea surface temperatures over the past few weeks has been nothing short of astonishing. We are now hotter than any days during the 1997/1998 super El Niño event, and we are still many months from the peak.
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Berkeley Earth @berkeleyearth.org · 27/07/2026
More coverage of our analysis of the current #ElNiño model forecasts from last week's monthly climate briefing in @wired.com. We'll be tracking the progress of the current El Niño in the months to come...register now to receive invites to future briefings, along updates: ➡️ tinyurl.com/ys9s4932
wired.com
The 2026 El Niño Is on Track to Be the Strongest on Record
This climate phenomenon could cause a massive global temperature spike and cause economic losses of $10 trillion by 2032.
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Reposted by Berkeley Earth
Robert Rohde @rarohde.bsky.social · 24/07/2026
See the alternating warm and cold patches in the Northern mid-latitudes? That's the imprint of a quasi-stationary Rossby wave (i.e. oscillations in the jet stream). It's rare to see it so clearly in a monthly-average temperature map.
Map of temperature anomalies in June 2025 relative to the 1951-1980 average.
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James Dinneen @jamesdinneen.bsky.social · 23/07/2026
It's not quite "gobsmackingly bananas" but monster forecasts for the record El Nino brewing the Pacific Ocean get pretty close. Here's what to make of it in my first for @nature.com: 🧪 www.nature.com/articles/d41...
nature.com
This El Niño is set to be the largest on record by a ‘mind-blowing margin’
Forecasters predict that the monster climate pattern will combine with global warming to push global temperatures in 2027 to new heights.
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Berkeley Earth @berkeleyearth.org · 23/07/2026
Just under an hour left to register for today’s monthly briefing, where we’ll share findings from our June update, as well as the latest on the current “super” El Niño. Hope to see you there. Link to register: tinyurl.com/4nfnh794
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Berkeley Earth @berkeleyearth.org · 20/07/2026
The current El Niño cycle has officially entered "Super" territory, but the peak impacts are still months away. We'll be discussing updated model forecasts and what this means for the remainder of 2026 at our Monthly Climate Briefing this Thurs at 8amPDT/5pmCET. Join us: tinyurl.com/4nfnh794
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Berkeley Earth @berkeleyearth.org · 17/07/2026
Summer 2026 is shaping up to be memorable, but the peak of the current El Niño cycle still lies ahead. Join us next week as @rarohde.bsky.social and @zekehausfather.com share updates from our June 2026 report, and outline what the rest of 2026 holds. Registration required ➡️ tinyurl.com/4nfnh794
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Reposted by Berkeley Earth
Zeke Hausfather @zekehausfather.com · 17/07/2026
Climate change does not cause wildfires, but hot and dry conditions make them much more likely to spread. In Canada, 9 of the 10 worst wildfire years were both dryer and hotter than normal. And these fires are burning in areas that were historically not managed or suppressed.
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Zeke Hausfather @zekehausfather.com · 13/07/2026
With all the July model runs now in, it is very likely that 2026 will see the largest El Niño event since records began in the late 1800s – and potentially by a truly mind-blowing margin. The median estimate is now 3.6C, roughly 0.8C hotter than the prior record (2.75C). www.theclimatebrink....
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Berkeley Earth @berkeleyearth.org · 08/07/2026
We are excited to announce our new climate data platform: Synthesis by Berkeley Earth synthesis.berkeleyearth.org It connects historical data (e.g. weather stations, city and regional averages) with bias-corrected climate model projections of the future. Introduction 🧵
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Berkeley Earth @berkeleyearth.org · 30/06/2026
We'll take that as a compliment 🙌 And note that "temperature" in this case includes projections at 5-year intervals for TAVG *and* TMAX for 8,000 global cities (TMIN soon), with metrics derived from daily simulations (CDD, HDD, Days >35C) for a select sample group. 👉 synthesis.berkeleyearth.org
synthesis.berkeleyearth.org
Berkeley Earth
Interactive climate data visualization platform using Berkeley Earth data
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Berkeley Earth @berkeleyearth.org · 29/06/2026
"Glaringly obvious in the data..." Last week's EU heatwave shattered records, but the long-term signal is clear: Europe has been warming faster than the global average for decades. @hausfath.bsky.social on what the long-term data shows, in @nature.com. www.nature.com/articles/d41...
nature.com
Europe’s record heatwave: does the continent have a new climate?
Nature asks researchers whether scorching summers are the new norm for London, Paris and Berlin.
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Berkeley Earth @berkeleyearth.org · 26/06/2026
After 5 months of data, 2026 seems unlikely to set a new annual record...but with significant uncertainty around the timing and magnitude of the emergent El Niño cycle, that outlook could change quickly over the next few months. More from our May 2026 Temp Update, now avail: tinyurl.com/6jxwabaa
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Zeke Hausfather @zekehausfather.com · 26/06/2026
Heat waves are driven by weather patterns but occur on the backdrop of a rapidly warming world. Without climate change the current European heat wave would have been ~3.2 °C (5.8 °F) cooler. Heat impacts are non-linear, so this higher severity can lead to much greater suffering
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Berkeley Earth @berkeleyearth.org · 25/06/2026
Join us in a little less than an hour, as we discuss Europe's record-smashing #heatwave, and what the updated #ElNiño forecasts tell us about the outlook for the remainder of 2026. Open to all. Registration required: tinyurl.com/57nwt93d
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Berkeley Earth @berkeleyearth.org · 23/06/2026
Join us this Thursday: @rarohde.bsky.social on findings from our May 2026 temp update, @hausfath.bsky.social w/ updates on the El Niño outlook, and what current conditions, including the heat building across Europe, signal for the remainder of 2026. Open to all. To register: tinyurl.com/57nwt93d
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Berkeley Earth @berkeleyearth.org · 12/06/2026
From 1850-2100: next week we launch our next chapter with Synthesis, our new platform featuring: -> City-level projections through 2100 for 8000 global cities -> TMAX, Days >35C, and CDDs -> Our full station archive ...all in a single interface. Join us next Tuesday: tinyurl.com/ebt3ad7d
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Reposted by Berkeley Earth
Zeke Hausfather @zekehausfather.com · 12/06/2026
Our 2026 Indicators of Global Climate Change paper is out! We find that the human-induced warming was 1.37C in 2025, and the current rate of warming is 0.27C per year, on track to firmly pass 1.5C in about four years: essd.copernicus.org/...
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Berkeley Earth @berkeleyearth.org · 10/06/2026
After 15 years building the world's leading independent temperature record, Berkeley Earth is extending it forward: next week we launch Synthesis, delivering city-level warming projections for 8,000+ cities worldwide (and more). Join us for our launch event next week ➡️ tinyurl.com/ebt3ad7d
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Robert Rohde @rarohde.bsky.social · 04/06/2026
History of El Niño and La Niña events since 1850 by applying the Relative Oceanic Niño Index to Berkeley Earth data. The strongest El Niños on this index are 1982/83, 1997/98, 2015/16 and 1877/78. Forecasts suggest an El Niño at the end of 2026 could challenge the record.
Time series chart of the Relative Oceanic Nino Index (rONI) applied to Berkeley Earth Data since 1850.  A 3-month moving averages is plotted as well as a 95% uncertainty range.  El Niño events have rONI > 0.5 C, and La Niña have rONI < -0.5 C.
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Zeke Hausfather @zekehausfather.com · 18/05/2026
Two things can be true: • RCP8.5 was never a realistic "business as usual" scenario • The world has made real progress bending the emissions curve down Glen Peters, Piers Forster, and I explain in a new article: www.theclimatebrink.... 1/11
theclimatebrink.com
On the death of RCP8.5
We should celebrate progress, but not overstate it
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Berkeley Earth @berkeleyearth.org · 11/05/2026
The March 2026 Western US heatwave shattered records, with roughly 30% of active US stations setting new monthly records. But it also may have revealed evidence of increasing temperature variability, not just a higher mean shift. Our complete analysis is now available: tinyurl.com/march2026hea...
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Zeke Hausfather @zekehausfather.com · 09/05/2026
A few new updates to my Climate Dashboard: dashboard.theclimate... First, I've incorporated the ECMWF 46-day forecast (and its ensemble uncertainty) into the global mean surface temperature anomaly figure, so you can see both historical and forecast near-term temperatures.
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Zeke Hausfather @zekehausfather.com · 05/05/2026
I've updated my Climate Dashboard to provide a daily updating probabilistic ENSO forecast similar to NOAA's, using 637 ensemble members across 13 different models (weighted by unique model). Here are the current results using the Oceanic Nino Index (ONI): dashboard.theclimate...
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Zeke Hausfather @zekehausfather.com · 01/05/2026
The arc of the scenario universe is long, but it bends inevitably toward more realistic emissions. A new paper outlining the emissions scenarios we will be using in the upcoming IPCC AR7 report notes that "the CMIP6 high emission levels (quantified by SSP5-8.5) have become implausible".
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Zeke Hausfather @zekehausfather.com · 30/04/2026
I've updated my 2026 and 2027 annual temperature forecasts in light of the strong El Nino forecast (and 2026 data to-date) over at the Climate Brink, as well as methodological changes for more robust uncertainties. Both are now higher than they were at the start of the year: www.theclimatebrink....
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Robert Rohde @rarohde.bsky.social · 30/04/2026
One frequently sees headlines that X is warming faster than the global average. That's true of nearly everywhere that humans live, but only because humans nearly all live on land. The process of global warming will generally warm land faster than the oceans.
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Zeke Hausfather @zekehausfather.com · 29/04/2026
If a strong El Niño develops in 2026 (quite likely now), the main effects on global temps will be in 2027. This is because there is historically a lag of about three months between when El Niño peaks (generally in Nov/Dec) and when the biggest effect occurs:
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Berkeley Earth @berkeleyearth.org · 23/04/2026
Starting in just under 15 minutes! Join us for a review of what was a very eventful March, including an in-depth review of our analysis of the remarkable Western US heatwave. See you there!
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WePlanet @weplanetint.bsky.social · 23/04/2026
Can we stop worrying about the climate? This week, @marklynas.bsky.social speaks with climate scientist @hausfath.bsky.social about why the climate challenge remains serious, complex, and urgent. 🎙️ Listen below.
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Berkeley Earth @berkeleyearth.org · 22/04/2026
Climate change is global, but its impacts are first experienced locally...this #EarthDay, visit Show Your Stripes to download climate stripes for your city, state, or country, now updated through 2025 with data from Berkeley Earth's high-res data set. Huge thanks as always to @edhawkins.org 🙌
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