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Emanuele Bevacqua

@bevacquae.bsky.social
1.1K followers 580 following 44 posts

Climate scientist • Physicist • Group leader @ufz_de • Compound weather/climate extreme events • 🎨 • ❄️ • he/him

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Emanuele Bevacqua @bevacquae.bsky.social · 24/04/2026
In other words, production across major breadbasket regions––regions that are generally distant from each other––is weakly correlated. Instead, correlations among smaller or nearby regions more systematically affect global crop production. @zscheischlerjak.bsky.social @jonasjaegermeyr.bsky.social
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Emanuele Bevacqua @bevacquae.bsky.social · 24/04/2026
📄🌽 New study led by @sifangfeng.bsky.social In model simulations, low production in major breadbaskets worldwide does not systematically co-occur to produce global crop failures. But, climate change is expected to increase concurrent extremes across breadbaskets, favouring global-scale events.
sciencedirect.com
The influence of spatial correlations in crop production on global crop failures in model simulations
Spatial correlation between climate variables may modulate concurrent regional crop failures and reduce global crop production. However, the influence…
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Emanuele Bevacqua @bevacquae.bsky.social · 20/04/2026
4. Over the past decade, human-induced climate change contributed to ~15% [5–26%] of the annual maximum spatial extent of synchronous extreme fire weather across Europe. ⚠️ The upper range of this estimate might be more realistic, as models underestimate the observed decline in relative humidity.
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Emanuele Bevacqua @bevacquae.bsky.social · 20/04/2026
3. The spatial extent of extreme fire weather has expanded markedly over the past three decades, mainly driven by rising temperature and the associated decline in relative humidity.
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Emanuele Bevacqua @bevacquae.bsky.social · 20/04/2026
🔍 What we show: 1. Spatially compounding fire weather extremes are associated with extreme European total burned area. 2. Cross-country correlations in fire weather strongly amplify the likelihood of such large-scale weather events.
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Emanuele Bevacqua @bevacquae.bsky.social · 20/04/2026
📄🔥 New study on Spatially compounding fire danger in Europe, led by E. Gauthier. We often view extreme fire weather locally—but what if multiple European countries face it simultaneously, potentially overwhelming shared firefighting resources via widespread fires? www.nature.com/articles/s44...
nature.com
Human-induced climate change intensifies spatially compounding fire weather extremes across European countries - npj Natural Hazards
npj Natural Hazards - Human-induced climate change intensifies spatially compounding fire weather extremes across European countries
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Reposted by Emanuele Bevacqua
UFZ @ufz.de · 26/03/2026
Extreme Klimafolgen sind auch bei 2 Grad Erwärmung möglich! Das zeigt eine Studie von #UFZ et al. Bislang wurden extreme Klimafolgen oft mit sehr hohen globalen Erwärmungsniveaus von 3 oder 4°C in Verbindung gebracht... @zscheischlerjak.bsky.social @bevacquae.bsky.social www.ufz.de/index.php?de...
Ernteausfälle durch Dürre ©André Künzelmann UFZ
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Emanuele Bevacqua @bevacquae.bsky.social · 25/03/2026
Great coverage by @ayeshatandon.carbonbrief.org at Carbon Brief on our new study about extreme global climate outcomes.
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Emanuele Bevacqua @bevacquae.bsky.social · 25/03/2026
Here is a great News & Views article by Rachel Warren discussing our recent work: www.nature.com/articles/d41... @natureportfolio.nature.com
nature.com
Extreme climate outcomes could still occur with just 2 °C of global warming
Moderate global warming creates a risk of climate impacts that are more severe than the most-likely impacts of high global warming.
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Emanuele Bevacqua @bevacquae.bsky.social · 25/03/2026
In a new Nature study, we show that extreme global climate outcomes may occur even under moderate 2°C warming for several sectors. The findings reinforce the urgency of limiting warming well below 2°C. Together with @erichfischer.bsky.social @janasillmann.bsky.social @zscheischlerjak.bsky.social
nature.com
Moderate global warming does not rule out extreme global climate outcomes - Nature
Extreme global climate outcomes may occur even under moderate 2 °C warming and may turn out to be more extreme than model-averaged projections at 3 °C or 4 °C warming.
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Emanuele Bevacqua @bevacquae.bsky.social · 10/03/2026
🔥 PhD position alert ➡️ We are looking for a PhD candidate interested in studying spatially compounding fire risk and its drivers under climate change. Details & applications👇 recruitingapp-5128.de.umantis.com/Vacancies/33...
recruitingapp-5128.de.umantis.com
PhD Researcher (f/m/x) – Spatially compounding fire weather extremes across Europe in a changing climate
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Reposted by Emanuele Bevacqua
Jakob Zscheischler @zscheischlerjak.bsky.social · 29/08/2025
Our new study on how large floods will change in Europe under climate change, led by @bfang.bsky.social, with @bevacquae.bsky.social
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Emanuele Bevacqua @bevacquae.bsky.social · 16/07/2025
Indeed, it was a pleasure to contribute to this course with content on extreme events, climate change, and attribution science. Now it’s time for the examination! :)
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sifangfeng.bsky.social @sifangfeng.bsky.social · 28/04/2025
To what extent does human-induced climate change contribute to global extreme wildfires? In our latest study, we quantified the contribution of human-induced climate change to over 700 observed extreme wildfires globally. www.nature.com/articles/s41...
nature.com
Growing human-induced climate change fingerprint in regional weekly fire extremes - npj Climate and Atmospheric Science
npj Climate and Atmospheric Science - Growing human-induced climate change fingerprint in regional weekly fire extremes
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Emanuele Bevacqua @bevacquae.bsky.social · 05/05/2025
📊 Warming was the main driver, but precipitation, humidity, and wind changes either enhanced or counteracted warming effects in many regions. 📄 Paper in npj Climate and Atmospheric Science www.nature.com/articles/s41... or rdcu.be/eiYcp @natureportfolio.nature.com @compoundnet.bsky.social
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Emanuele Bevacqua @bevacquae.bsky.social · 05/05/2025
🔥🌍 In a new paper led by Sifang Feng, we find a growing human-induced climate change fingerprint in weekly regional fire extremes. 📈 On average, climate change was responsible for a fraction equal to 8 ± 4% of the predicted probability of more than 700 fire extremes worldwide between 2002 and 2015.
nature.com
Growing human-induced climate change fingerprint in regional weekly fire extremes - npj Climate and Atmospheric Science
npj Climate and Atmospheric Science - Growing human-induced climate change fingerprint in regional weekly fire extremes
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Reposted by Emanuele Bevacqua
Zack Labe @zacklabe.com · 05/03/2025
Hi - I'd like to share this story of what is happening at NOAA GFDL, where some of my colleagues and I worked until the mass firings at NOAA last week. "...the birthplace of weather and climate forecasting"
science.org
NOAA firings hit the birthplace of weather and climate forecasting
Dismissed researchers were improving severe weather predictions
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Emanuele Bevacqua @bevacquae.bsky.social · 24/02/2025
Great job opportunity in Graz, check it out!
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Emanuele Bevacqua @bevacquae.bsky.social · 12/02/2025
Hi Glen, adding to Carl, more text related to this is in paragraphs 2-3 of our brief communication. For those interested in expanding, see also Betts' discussion: www.nature.com/articles/d41.... The same windows are also used to document impacts/effects emerging at a given warming level.
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Reposted by Emanuele Bevacqua
New Scientist @newscientist.com · 10/02/2025
2024 was the first year to see global average temperatures rise more than 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. Has the Paris Agreement goal already bitten the dust? www.newscientist.com/article/2467...
newscientist.com
Have we already breached the 1.5°C global warming target?
Although the climate goals set by the Paris Agreement are based on the long-term average temperature, one year of high temperatures might be a sign that the 1.5°C threshold has already been reached
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Reposted by Emanuele Bevacqua
Nature Portfolio @natureportfolio.nature.com · 10/02/2025
Two papers in Nature Climate Change suggest that exceeding 1.5 °C in 2024 may indicate that we have entered a multi-decadal period of 1.5 °C average global warming. go.nature.com/4hR9GYO go.nature.com/3WVdJM1 🧪
This is figure 2 from “A year above 1.5 °C signals that Earth is most probably within the 20-year period that will reach the Paris Agreement limit.” It shows strong warming trends place the first 1.5 °C year within the 1.5 °C 20-year period.
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Emanuele Bevacqua @bevacquae.bsky.social · 10/02/2025
The results in both papers depend on how CMIP6 models capture relevant climate processes over the next decade or so. See Discussion and bsky.app/profile/clim... Work @ufz.de together with @carlschleussner.bsky.social and @zscheischlerjak.bsky.social
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Emanuele Bevacqua @bevacquae.bsky.social · 10/02/2025
In contrast, while our results are more conservative by indicating we are in the first part of the 20-year period and not that the goal has been breached, they rely on the occurrence of a calendar year above 1.5°C, which is supported by the average of multiple observational datasets (1.55°C).
nature.com
Earth breaches 1.5 °C climate limit for the first time: what does it mean?
The threshold has been exceeded for only one year so far, but humanity is nearing the end of what many thought was a ‘safe zone’ as climate change worsens.
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Emanuele Bevacqua @bevacquae.bsky.social · 10/02/2025
Making their result actionable requires the occurrence of 12 consecutive months above 1.5°C, a condition met in ERA5 and BEST observational datasets, but that has not been met based on the mean of multiple observational datasets (plot for consecutive months strictly > 1.5°C by @hoegner.bsky.social).
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Emanuele Bevacqua @bevacquae.bsky.social · 10/02/2025
An extra note is needed to help link our results with another study published by Cannon today. In climate models (SSP245), Cannon found a 76% chance that 12 consecutive months above 1.5°C occur *after* the Paris Agreement goal is reached, that is, after the midpoint of a 20-year window at 1.5°C.
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Emanuele Bevacqua @bevacquae.bsky.social · 10/02/2025
Finally, we highlight that the entry time in the 20-year period at 1.5 °C warming should not be mistaken as the timing of the warming level itself, as the latter is placed at the midpoint of the 20-year period.
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Emanuele Bevacqua @bevacquae.bsky.social · 10/02/2025
Only rapid near-term mitigation can effectively limit peak warming, which is required to hold warming *well below* 2 °C in case of exceedance or overshoot of 1.5 °C. www.nature.com/articles/s43... A year above 1.5 °C is not the time for despair but a call to action.
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Emanuele Bevacqua @bevacquae.bsky.social · 10/02/2025
Cutting emissions has never been more important. It can lower the chance of reaching the 1.5°C limit soon after 2024, but this demands very stringent mitigation. For example, halving the chance that 2024 will be within the first 20-yr 1.5°C period requires a fivefold reduction in temperature trends.
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Emanuele Bevacqua @bevacquae.bsky.social · 10/02/2025
The IPCC AR6 flags “High Risks” at 1.5°C for unique systems (such as biodiversity) and extreme events. Floods in Brazil, Spain, and Kenya, mega-drought in the Amazon, tropical storms, and heatwaves in 2024 gave us a taste of these risks. We are not prepared for the climate risks at 1.5°C to unfold.
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Emanuele Bevacqua @bevacquae.bsky.social · 10/02/2025
Entering a window at 1.5 °C average warming means entering the same window used by scientists to project the impacts of a 1.5 °C warmer world. Thus, our results warn we are most probably in a period where the impacts of a 1.5 °C world are expected to unfold, underscoring the urgency of adaptations.
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Emanuele Bevacqua @bevacquae.bsky.social · 10/02/2025
Our result is due to the ongoing strong anthropogenic multi-decadal warming trend that, combined with the relatively low variability in the temperature time series, renders it very unlikely for the temperature of a single year to exceed the average temperature over the coming decades (Figure 2c).
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Emanuele Bevacqua @bevacquae.bsky.social · 10/02/2025
That is, the first year above 1.5 °C occurs within the first 20-year period with an average warming of 1.5 °C. We found the same behaviour for other recent warming levels already reached in observations starting from the 1980s (0.6 °C to 1.0 °C; Figure 1a in the paper).
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Emanuele Bevacqua @bevacquae.bsky.social · 10/02/2025
Through climate models, observations, and idealised experiments, we show that unless stringent climate mitigation is implemented, the first year above 1.5°C in 2024 signals that it is highly probable that Earth has already entered the 20-year period that *will* reach the 1.5°C Paris Agreement limit.
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Emanuele Bevacqua @bevacquae.bsky.social · 10/02/2025
However, the implications for the Paris Agreement's 1.5 °C goal are unclear because the goal is understood to refer to temperature averaged over a 20-30 year period to account for natural short-term variability.
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Emanuele Bevacqua @bevacquae.bsky.social · 10/02/2025
The year 2024 was announced as the first calendar year to exceed 1.5 °C of global warming by several international organisations that independently track the global temperature, with a multi-dataset mean of 1.55 °C.
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Emanuele Bevacqua @bevacquae.bsky.social · 10/02/2025
In Nature Climate Change, we show that a year above 1.5 °C signals that Earth is most probably within the 20-year period that will reach the Paris Agreement limit. @natclimchange.bsky.social
nature.com
A year above 1.5 °C signals that Earth is most probably within the 20-year period that will reach the Paris Agreement limit - Nature Climate Change
What a first year with temperature 1.5 °C above the pre-industrial baseline implies for long-term temperature goals is unclear. Here the authors show that such a first year above the baseline is highl...
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Reposted by Emanuele Bevacqua
Ed Hawkins @edhawkins.org · 10/01/2025
Spiralling global temperatures: 2024 edition
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Emanuele Bevacqua @bevacquae.bsky.social · 10/01/2025
Big congrats! @raedhamed.bsky.social
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Emanuele Bevacqua @bevacquae.bsky.social · 04/12/2024
We are delighted to announce the "Compound weather and climate events" session at #EGU25! We look forward to receiving your exciting abstracts! @compoundnet.bsky.social
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Emanuele Bevacqua @bevacquae.bsky.social · 04/12/2024
We are delighted to announce the "Compound weather and climate events" session at #EGU25! We look forward to receiving your exciting abstracts! @compoundnet.bsky.social
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Emanuele Bevacqua @bevacquae.bsky.social · 20/11/2024
Thanks to all coauthors! Oldrich Rakovec, Dominik L. Schumacher, Rohini Kumar, Stephan Thober, Luis Samaniego, Sonia I. Seneviratne & Jakob Zscheischler Apologies for crossposting! It is a particular period with social networks!
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Emanuele Bevacqua @bevacquae.bsky.social · 20/11/2024
Accordingly, drought indices that integrate water balance over a few months can provide an incomplete picture of ongoing #climatechange impacts on droughts. Overall, these results highlight that #globalwarming effects on droughts are already underway, widespread and long-lasting. 9/n
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Emanuele Bevacqua @bevacquae.bsky.social · 20/11/2024
..emphasizing the need for more research on the topic, as this can affect future drought projections. Failing to capture lagged effects risks misrepresenting climate change effects on water resources, especially as rising temperatures could amplify such lagged effects. 8/n
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Emanuele Bevacqua @bevacquae.bsky.social · 20/11/2024
While soil moisture memory has been studied, its interaction with long-term climate change and associated effect on droughts has been largely overlooked. We find differences in the magnitude of the lagged effect between hydrological (41%) and land-surface (14%) models, ... 7/n
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Emanuele Bevacqua @bevacquae.bsky.social · 20/11/2024
A consequence, for example, is that for a wet year to offset the climate change effects fully, the weather must counterbalance not only the climate change-enhanced evaporation during the ongoing hydrological year but also that of the years before. 6/n
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Emanuele Bevacqua @bevacquae.bsky.social · 20/11/2024
The relevance of lagged climate change effects has broad implications for droughts and underscores how climate change-enhanced evaporation silently contributes to an accumulation of water deficits in the soil. 5/n
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Emanuele Bevacqua @bevacquae.bsky.social · 20/11/2024
We find that 14–41% of the climate change contribution was due to warming-driven soil drying that occurred *before* the hydrological year of 2022, indicating the importance of considering lagged climate change effects to avoid underestimating drought risks. 4/n
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Emanuele Bevacqua @bevacquae.bsky.social · 20/11/2024
While precipitation deficits primarily drove the soil moisture drought, human-induced global warming contributed to over 30% of the drought intensity and its spatial extent via enhanced evaporation. Qualitatively similar effects occurred for the extremely low river discharges. 3/n
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Emanuele Bevacqua @bevacquae.bsky.social · 20/11/2024
Combining observations and climate models with hydrological and land-surface simulations, we show that Central-Southern Europe saw the highest total water storage deficit since satellite observations began in 2002, probably the most extreme soil moisture deficit in 60 years. 2/n
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Emanuele Bevacqua @bevacquae.bsky.social · 20/11/2024
Do you remember the extreme #drought in Europe in 2022? Our @naturegeosci.bsky.social paper shows that human-induced global warming contributed to 31% of the intensity, with 14–41% of such contribution due to warming-driven soil drying that occurred before 2022. rdcu.be/dXA1S 1/n
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