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Ben Radford

@benradford.bsky.social
726 followers 874 following 139 posts

Computational social science, machine learning, Bayesian stats, political conflict, forecasting, cybersecurity, international relations. www.benradford.com

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Ben Radford @benradford.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
This isn't really true. The algorithm that generates your output, of which the LLM is a piece, is often beam search. Beam search can "back up" because it creates a branching tree of possible outputs and prunes them as it finds better ones Similar idea pruning happens in reasoning models
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Better Things Are Possible @internethippo.bsky.social · 14/03/2026
There's a hauntingly beautiful irony in these morons thinking that carefully crafted American hegemony was actually weak and woke, and they would be the ones who would do Power and Dominance properly, and immediately bringing everything crashing down
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Ben Radford @benradford.bsky.social · 17/08/2026
What's your favorite MLE / GLMs textbook? Plz help
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Ben Radford @benradford.bsky.social · 24/06/2026
Has anyone seen data from an online survey (any topic) that has been run through an AI detector and includes Pr(AI) score or similar...?
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Ben Radford @benradford.bsky.social · 22/06/2026
Have y'all stayed up late at night for the past 33 years yearning for multiplayer Master of Orion 1? Yearn no longer: github.com/jacob-t-radf...
github.com
GitHub - jacob-t-radford/1oom-mp: Master of Orion 1 (1oom) + simultaneous-turn multiplayer (fork of 1oom-fork/1oom)
Master of Orion 1 (1oom) + simultaneous-turn multiplayer (fork of 1oom-fork/1oom) - jacob-t-radford/1oom-mp
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Ben Radford @benradford.bsky.social · 20/06/2026
For Father's Day, my lil brother used Claude to add multiplayer to my dad's favorite video game that came out in 1993 as single player only Show off
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Ben Radford @benradford.bsky.social · 11/06/2026
Colleges: let's remove the opportunity for intelligent high school students to compete and distinguish themselves intellectually from mediocre students Also colleges: why can't our students read?
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Jacob T. Levy @jacobtlevy.bsky.social · 27/05/2026
It's good that universities are making six-figure payouts to people who got fired for their comments about Charlie Kirk, but now the universities need to do some new firing, of administrators who carried out those illegal actions. www.nytimes.com/2026/05/27/u...
nytimes.com
Fired for Criticizing Charlie Kirk, They’re Now Getting Big Payouts
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Ben Radford @benradford.bsky.social · 27/05/2026
Ollama local models in Claude CLI you're welcome
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Ben Radford @benradford.bsky.social · 14/05/2026
LaTeX users: Copy a citation, convert it to BibTeX, and copy it to your clipboard in one click
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Ben Radford @benradford.bsky.social · 14/05/2026
Highlight references/DOIs and copy straight to bibtex. Free, open source, and now in the chrome web store: chromewebstore.google.com/detail/fmlpb...
chromewebstore.google.com
HighCite - Chrome Web Store
Highlight a citation and convert it to BibTeX with one click. No API key required.
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Ben Radford @benradford.bsky.social · 11/05/2026
I (Claude) made a chrome extension that converts highlighted citations to bibtex and copies them straight to your clipboard: github.com/benradford/h...
github.com
GitHub - benradford/highcite: A Chrome browser extension that copies academic citations directly to the clipboard in BibTeX format.
A Chrome browser extension that copies academic citations directly to the clipboard in BibTeX format. - benradford/highcite
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Ben Radford @benradford.bsky.social · 04/04/2026
I'm spending my Friday giving frontier local & API LLMs a really tough task: "he's a dataset and DV, develop and test a theory and write it up" No guidance or feedback So far I've got a 2SLS with a plausible IV and AFAICT minimal hallucinated cites... Things are looking dicey, Team Humans
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Ben Radford @benradford.bsky.social · 02/04/2026
If you insist on reading Communion, make sure you read the one based on a true story
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Ben Radford @benradford.bsky.social · 31/03/2026
💯 the best essay about AI in academia yet, bar none
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Ben Radford @benradford.bsky.social · 30/03/2026
I mean, how hard could it be? ☢️
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Ben Radford @benradford.bsky.social · 28/03/2026
The problem isn't too much or too little AI in academia. It's that we've let pubs, a metric of our success, become the target. Our job isn't publish; it's create and communicate new knowledge
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Nick Kapur @nickkapur.bsky.social · 24/03/2026
New study finds notion that humans can "double-check" AI to be flawed. Participants trusted AI 93% of the time when it was correct, but still trusted it 80% of the time when it was wrong, while being *more* confident in their conclusions. papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
papers.ssrn.com
Thinking—Fast, Slow, and Artificial: How AI is Reshaping Human Reasoning and the Rise of Cognitive Surrender
People increasingly consult generative artificial intelligence (AI) while reasoning. As AI becomes embedded in daily thought, what becomes of human judgment? We
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Ben Radford @benradford.bsky.social · 15/03/2026
I know MB Neo must have been in dev for years, but it's so perfectly timed to steal Win 11 market share it's amazing
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Ben Radford @benradford.bsky.social · 14/03/2026
The US flailing about in complete disbelief that Iran would use their only viable strategic advantage strategically by closing the Strait should be an object lesson for other big countries considering invading smaller countries with outsized economic leverage
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Ben Radford @benradford.bsky.social · 09/03/2026
Bonkers
youtu.be
Source: Havana Syndrome investigation is "a massive CIA cover-up" | 60 Minutes
YouTube video by 60 Minutes
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Ben Radford @benradford.bsky.social · 07/03/2026
My "the Department of D̶e̶f̶e̶n̶s̶e̶War is not at war" t-shirt has people asking a lot of questions already answered by my t-shirt
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Ben Radford @benradford.bsky.social · 06/03/2026
Counterpoint: Claude will make mediocre scientists more productive and excellent scientists who want to do novel work relatively less productive
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Ben Radford @benradford.bsky.social · 26/02/2026
Banana pudding is so much better than the sum of it's parts
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Zander Furnas @alexanderfurnas.com · 24/02/2026
whichever part of writing a paper that you think AI can do better than humans is just the part of writing a paper that you are the worst at send tweet
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Score My Wordle @scoremywordle.bsky.social · 21/02/2026
The top scorer for Fri, Feb 20, 2026, UTC is: @benradford.bsky.social! They scored 360 points for #Wordle 1707 and solved it on row 1! That's better than 2,396 (~100%) other users. Never give up!
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Ben Radford @benradford.bsky.social · 20/02/2026
Wordle 1,707 1/6 🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩 Finally
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Ben Radford @benradford.bsky.social · 20/01/2026
Literally just heard someone on the phone in the elevator say "I'm calling to let senator fetterman know I'm alarmed and concerned..."
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Ben Radford @benradford.bsky.social · 16/01/2026
Baby bok choi is the cutest vegetable
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Ben Radford @benradford.bsky.social · 14/01/2026
Talk about an interesting conspiracy/mystery. holy cow www.cnn.com/2026/01/13/p...
cnn.com
Pentagon bought device through undercover operation some investigators suspect is linked to Havana Syndrome | CNN Politics
The Defense Department has spent more than a year testing a device purchased in an undercover operation that some investigators think could be the cause of a series of mysterious ailments impacting sp...
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Ben Radford @benradford.bsky.social · 10/01/2026
Sorry scientists, but coding is part of the learning process and offloading it to LLMs is equivalent to reading a paper, not writing one
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Andy Halterman @ahalterman.bsky.social · 19/09/2025
Very excited that my paper with @katakeith.bsky.social is now out in @polanalysis.bsky.social. We investigate whether LLMs actually follow the instructions/definitions provided in codebooks, propose some diagnostics, and release a new evaluation dataset. www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
cambridge.org
Codebook LLMs: Evaluating LLMs as Measurement Tools for Political Science Concepts | Political Analysis | Cambridge Core
Codebook LLMs: Evaluating LLMs as Measurement Tools for Political Science Concepts
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Dr Abeba Birhane @abeba.blacksky.app · 16/09/2025
what are the most widely read digital newspapers by web traffic across the US and EU? do you know of any current repositories?
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Ben Radford @benradford.bsky.social · 21/08/2025
Skills & tools that nobody teaches you but that pay for themselves many times over in social sciences: 1. regex 2. Linux 3. Selenium & beautifulsoup 4. Git 5. SQL
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Ben Radford @benradford.bsky.social · 15/08/2025
Learn to love regex. Don't let ChatGPT steal the joy that could be yours
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Ben Radford @benradford.bsky.social · 31/07/2025
There needs to be a public forum for rebutting and shaming bad reviews in political science. Just got rejected on measuring ideology of LLMs bc reviewer "sincerely hopes we're never in a world where LLMs make policy so [doesn't] know why [they] should be interested" I've got bad news, buddy...
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Ben Radford @benradford.bsky.social · 31/07/2025
Mario Rabbids best series ever
media.tenor.com
a close up of a mario cartoon character
Alt: a close up of a mario cartoon character
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Ben Radford @benradford.bsky.social · 28/07/2025
Uh oh #polisky Microsoft thinks we're more AI-replaceable than basically everyone arxiv.org/abs/2507.07935
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Adam L @adam-lg.bsky.social · 28/07/2025
41. Computational social science is a bizarre concept, creating by non-social scientists. You don't call all the people who do math in chem, bio, and physics "numbers scientists."
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Ben Radford @benradford.bsky.social · 03/05/2025
Statistics is 🔥
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Isadora, PhD @1sadora.bsky.social · 21/04/2025
Thank you for inviting me to collaborate on the ideas and writing of the brief wit your great students! For anyone curious about the arguments but short on time, their Harvard Cyber clinic blog post condensed our contributions to the Massachusetts court.
clinic.cyber.harvard.edu
Clinic Represents Advocates and Researchers in Follow-Up to Social Media Surveillance Case
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Hanif Sajid @hsajid.bsky.social · 30/04/2025
Meet `azllm` by our team – an easier way to run multiple LLMs: - Many prompts on one model (batch) - One prompt on many models (parallel) - Custom settings per run - Supports propietary + local models (@ollama) - Parses responses (structured outputs) pypi.org/project/azllm/
pypi.org
azllm
A Python package that provides an easier user interface for multiple LLM providers.
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Ben Radford @benradford.bsky.social · 30/04/2025
100%
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Ben Radford @benradford.bsky.social · 21/04/2025
I don't think we have to concede the premise: there ARE conservative professors. They just also believe in science, which means modern MAGA conservatives don't consider them pure
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Alexander Kustov @akoustov.bsky.social · 18/04/2025
I see a lot of confusion about what it means for Republicans to "own" immigration. Does this mean increasing immigration salience helps Rs on average? Yes. But does that mean anything Rs do on immigration is popular? Absolutely not. Folks should remember: issue ownership can be lost.
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Ben Radford @benradford.bsky.social · 15/04/2025
Even college students, much less regular folk, don't understand that professors are _the_ scientists. They think these are two different professions with different populations. We've got to communicate the research part of our jobs better
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Ben Radford @benradford.bsky.social · 10/04/2025
two months in and the US has already decisively lost the trade war
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Dare Obasanjo @carnage4life.bsky.social · 07/04/2025
At this rate MAGA will only be able to afford to rent the libs.
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Jesse D. Jenkins @jessedjenkins.com · 05/04/2025
Oopsies. "The formula for the tariffs ...does not make economic sense. ... But even if one were to take the Trump Administration’s tariff formula seriously, it makes an error that inflates the tariffs assumed to be levied by foreign countries four-fold." www.aei.org/economics/pr...
The formula for the tariffs, originally credited to the Council of Economic Advisers and published by the Office of the United States Trade Representative, does not make economic sense. The trade deficit with a given country is not determined only by tariffs and non-tariff trade barriers, but also by international capital flows, supply chains, comparative advantage, geography, etc.  

But even if one were to take the Trump Administration’s tariff formula seriously, it makes an error that inflates the tariffs assumed to be levied by foreign countries four-fold. As a result, the “reciprocal” tariffs imposed by President Trump are highly inflated as well.
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