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Bancroft Sutherland @bancsutherland.bsky.social · 1h

“Whoever wins [the technology] wins. I think that's very important. But I think the technology has very real risks.” Statement by AI exec at impromptu WH press conference, or internal transcript from a Manhattan Project strategic planning meeting?

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Bancroft Sutherland @bancsutherland.bsky.social · 10h

Great moments in data visualization

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Bancroft Sutherland @bancsutherland.bsky.social · 18h

The tax-loss selling in bonds during Q4 will be something to behold.

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Bancroft Sutherland @bancsutherland.bsky.social · 18h

Mortgage rates now have a momentum factor.

30 year mortgage rate up to 7.58% from 6.75% a month ago

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Bancroft Sutherland @bancsutherland.bsky.social · 23h

8 months later. How’s the peacemaker-in-chief title looking? “Whether Trump ultimately becomes the most consequential US president for Iran since Carter or merely an accelerant of instability will hinge on whether his administration can move beyond improvisation & develop a coherent strategy.“

A strategy of containment and pressure is far wiser-and far less likely to produce mass violence-than the improvisation of the past year. If pursued consistently, it offers the best chance of a managed leadership transition in Tehran rather than one born of regional war or internal collapse. If Trump can bring about such a transition, he may yet earn his self-bestowed title of "peacemaker in chief"

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Bancroft Sutherland @bancsutherland.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

Rough operating environment for The House.

The correlation between the price of West Texas Intermediate crude and the 10-year Treasury yield hit 65 percent this month, according to derivatives firm Cboe, putting it within touching distance of the level set following Iraq's invasion of Kuwait nearly four decades
ago.
The closeness of the relationship highlights how dependent the outlook for the global economy and major asset classes has become on traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, through which about 20 per cent of the world's oil exports usually pass.

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Bancroft Sutherland @bancsutherland.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

September 2022: 75bps hike November 2022: 75bps hike, six days before the midterms They didn’t hike in October because there wasn’t a fucking meeting in October.

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Bancroft Sutherland @bancsutherland.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

A regression on the UR + recent changes in payroll jobs, consumer prices, stock prices & gas prices explained 70% of the variation in consumer sentiment for 40 years. Over the last 6 yrs the equation has missed badly & is getting worse. Whatever the reason, it is not measuring what it used to

This slide in sentiment relative to the fundamentals could, to some extent, reflect a recent amplification of a "K-shaped economy" where the majority of respondents feel that they are falling behind even if the aggregate economic numbers look OK. It could also be a hangover from the pandemic that has left many feeling less socially anchored than in the past. Or it could be the result of insidious social media algorithms that feed their smart-phone captives an unrelenting stream of stories and images designed to make them scared and angry.

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Bancroft Sutherland @bancsutherland.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

The fact that these two companies seemingly haven’t felt an all-encompassing urgency to go public all year, when the window to do so has been wide open, makes me question their judgement more broadly.

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Bancroft Sutherland @bancsutherland.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

You can explain a lot, about a lot, simply via the slope of this line from ‘81-‘21

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Bancroft Sutherland @bancsutherland.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

At the time, I considered it malpractice to not massively term out as much debt as possible in ‘20–‘21, on the rationale that LT debt issued w/ yields < your inflation target = free $. Now figure the scale of the unrealized losses on balance sheets would somehow be causing a financial crisis today

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Bancroft Sutherland @bancsutherland.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

I was looking for a new rug, but the 911 GT2 RS really ties the room together.

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Bancroft Sutherland @bancsutherland.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

Gotta love a choose-your-own-adventure day in the headlines.

FinTwitter @fintwitter.bsky.social • 3m
American source engaged in
negotiations with Iran to Al Arabiya: The chances of an agreement are extremely slim.
3 2
2
•••
FinTwitter @fintwitter.bsky.social • 7m
Iran Agrees To Suspend Uranium Enrichment In Exchange For US
Sanctions Relief - Al Hadath

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Bancroft Sutherland @bancsutherland.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

Not every day you see “terror plot” and “bail” in the same sentence.

Breaking News
Britain said five men who had been arrested over a possible terror plot on a U.K. air base would be released on bail.

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Isaiah Bishop @isaiahbishop.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

this is the surprisingly concise story. There really isnt anything that cant relieve product markets right now besides reopening

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Bancroft Sutherland @bancsutherland.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

turning a big dial that says "pain" on it and constantly looking back at the electorate for approval like a contestant on the price is right

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Bancroft Sutherland @bancsutherland.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

Always check a long-term chart to put spreads in context. Sub-300 on high-yield is more along the lines of “still historically low”.

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Bancroft Sutherland @bancsutherland.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

Dr. Frankenstein, booking his monster for a photo shoot.

Limitations Our model is powerful, but there are real tradeoffs we want to be honest about

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Bancroft Sutherland @bancsutherland.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

If the deranged “paid for by the US government” commercial during football games doesn’t turn the approval ratings around, surely a “small rise in gasoline prices” will.

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Bancroft Sutherland @bancsutherland.bsky.social · 27/09/2026

Lowes has ALL the Christmas stuff out already. Five weeks before 10/31, and the Halloween stuff already moved aside to the corner. Grabbing some yard work tools during halftime of a Week 3 game, and hearing to Joy To The World.

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MLB @mlbbot.bsky.social · 27/09/2026

Max Scherzer was NOT coming out of this game! 😤

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Bancroft Sutherland @bancsutherland.bsky.social · 27/09/2026

“Jesus Is My #1 Prospect” has serious mech potential if nothing else

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Bancroft Sutherland @bancsutherland.bsky.social · 27/09/2026

Go with alliteration: We would not die in that man’s company That fears his fucking fellowship to die with us.

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Bancroft Sutherland @bancsutherland.bsky.social · 27/09/2026

Can’t beat the thrill of a division race coming down to the wire on the last day of the season. Excellence on display.

Astros and Rangers, sub .500 and tied for first

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Bancroft Sutherland @bancsutherland.bsky.social · 26/09/2026

Implied macro impact here may be true, but in general: be careful about drawing conclusions from charts that hide denominators, use unconventional measurement periods, and odd scaling.

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CJ Fogler @cjzero.bsky.social · 26/09/2026

John Mateer is a bit, right

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Bancroft Sutherland @bancsutherland.bsky.social · 26/09/2026

For all of you who need 400 pages on historical stock and bond returns this fine Saturday morning. rpc.cfainstitute.org/sites/defaul...

Exponential Wealth:
Centuries of Stock and Bond Returns
Roger G. Ibbotson
Laurence B. Siegel, Executive Editor
CFA Institute
Research
Foundation
Supported by
MORNINGSTAR®

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Lou Mannheim @loumannheim87.bsky.social · 26/09/2026

"The entirety of every SEC filing that goes out there giving me real-time ROIC" ...? Does he mean the 10q's? This comment shook me a little bit. How much else of what these CEOs say is just exaggerated bullshit?

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Bancroft Sutherland @bancsutherland.bsky.social · 25/09/2026

The company to pay restitution by issuing every resident free charms and glasses, to record everything they see, hear, and think.

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Bancroft Sutherland @bancsutherland.bsky.social · 25/09/2026

Each of these points re: Q3 SPX estimates is amazing. 29% EPS growth; 3rd straight 25%+ All 11 sectors + y/y earnings growth (5 double-digit) 12% rev. growth; 3rd straight double-digit All 11 sectors + y/y rev growth Cal. ‘26 EPS: +32% Rev & EPS growth has been exceptional. Via FactSet

Due to the upward revisions to earnings estimates by analysts and the positive EPS guidance issued by companies, the estimated (year-over-year) earnings growth rate for Q3 2026 is higher today relative to the start of the third quarter. As of today, the S&P 500 is expected to report (year-over-year) earnings growth of 29.1%, compared to the estimated (year-over-year) earnings growth rate of 26.7% on June 30.
If 29.1% is the actual growth rate for the quarter, it will mark the third consecutive quarter of earnings growth above 25% and the eighth consecutive quarter of double-digit earnings growth for the index.
All eleven sectors are projected to report year-over-year growth. Five of these eleven sectors are predicted to report double-digit growth, led by the Energy, Information Technology, Communication Services, and Materials sectors.
In terms of revenues, analysts have also raised their estimates during the quarter. As of today, the S&P 500 is expected to report (year-over-year) revenue growth of 12.1%, compared to the expectations for revenue growth of 10.9% on June 30.
If 12.1% is the actual revenue growth rate for the quarter, it will mark the third consecutive quarter of double-digit revenue growth for the index.
All eleven sectors are projected to report year-over-year growth in revenues, led by the Information Technology, Energy, and Communication Services sectors.
For Q42026, analysts are calling for earnings growth of 26.8%. For CY 2026, analysts are predicting (year-over-year) earnings growth of 32.0%.

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Bancroft Sutherland @bancsutherland.bsky.social · 25/09/2026

US/Iran talks entering “technical stage” was only good for about 50bps on equities. Even with a 3% drop in crude. Headline bullshit fatigue really setting in at this point.

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Bancroft Sutherland @bancsutherland.bsky.social · 25/09/2026

GDPNow still holding at 5.0% with this morning’s update. Consensus slowly creeping higher towards the nowcast… Goldman now at +3.4% with their revision today.

Evolution of Atlanta Fed
GDPNow real GDP estimate for 2026:Q3
Quarterly percent change (SAAR)

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Isaiah Bishop @isaiahbishop.bsky.social · 25/09/2026

fraud is legal but you need to juice public services is a modern open source version of the mafia, very good to see old industries getting back on their feet

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Bancroft Sutherland @bancsutherland.bsky.social · 25/09/2026

Always find these schemes even more remarkable given the number of KYC hoops required just to open an investment account for, as an example, something as benign as an IG muni bond ladder strategy.

According to a civil forfeiture complaint filed by the Department of Justice in California, Capstone was unlicensed, hid the nature of its business from US banks and appeared to have made payments to "hundreds of individuals and entities" for two unnamed firms.
Those companies are Tether, the world's largest stablecoin issuer, and its sister exchange Bitfinex, said people familiar with the situation.

Alleged structure
Affiliated Companies
Investment adviser
Stablecoin issuer
BITFINEXン
Crypto exchange
Marlin Capital
Investor
Clients of
EQIBank
Directs money transmitting
© capstone.
Opens accounts pretending to be a tech company
WELLS FARGO
Bank account
Approx.
$200mn
Payments to 100s of individuals and entities
Cash
Wells Fargo
Brokerage treasuries +
Money market funds

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Karthik Sankaran @rajakorman.bsky.social · 25/09/2026

In the political science literature, this is known as State Rapture.

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Bancroft Sutherland @bancsutherland.bsky.social · 25/09/2026

The movie is 174 minutes?! Sorry but I am not giving Holmes 3 hours of my life.

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Bancroft Sutherland @bancsutherland.bsky.social · 24/09/2026

Feels like we are getting close to the “news reports start using percents of percents” stage of this cycle. As in, the 10-year yield is up more than 30% since late February, the 30-year mortgage rate is up almost 25%, etc.

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Bancroft Sutherland @bancsutherland.bsky.social · 24/09/2026

A cursed feedback loop. Curses all the way down.

An attendee wearing Meta glasses takes a video of a Muse agent on screen.

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Bancroft Sutherland @bancsutherland.bsky.social · 24/09/2026

Or 138 bps higher than the 5.99% rate on 2/27, the day before the start of the war.

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Bancroft Sutherland @bancsutherland.bsky.social · 24/09/2026

Not great when you could land an airplane in the space between the lines on a two-day yield curve chart.

US yield curve, Tuesday of this week versus current. Yields are up.

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Bancroft Sutherland @bancsutherland.bsky.social · 24/09/2026

Headline: Google is Sending an A.I. Data Center to Outer Space Article: “To be clear, Google is not sending up a full data center…”

To be clear, Google is not sending up a full data center - only an experimental precursor to one. MVP contains four specialized computer chips called "tensor processing units," which have the computing power of one server in a data center. The satellite's solar panels will supply only about one kilowatt of power - roughly the amount needed to run a hair dryer - to the chips.

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