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Avner Strulov-Shlain 🎗️

@avnershlain.bsky.social
1.5K followers 506 following 195 posts

Assistant professor of Marketing @ChicagoBooth. Behavioral economist. PhD @BerkeleyEcon. Husband and father. Improv. www.AvnerShlain.com

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Reposted by Avner Strulov-Shlain 🎗️
Becker Friedman Institute for Economics @beckerfriedman.bsky.social · 29/10/2025
When Israeli supermarkets were forced to adjust prices under a reform, firms learned new strategies and improved—but still priced inefficiently. Research by Avner Strulov-Shlain 🎗️ shows how firms learn from experience. ow.ly/IPYm50XjOT1
ow.ly
Firms Have Partial Knowledge: Evidence from a Reform | Becker Friedman Institute
Economists typically assume that firms are sophisticated and make optimal decisions. Yet, in practice, firms often make mistakes. This study asks why: Do firms know the right action but fail to implement, or do they lack knowledge of the optimal action? To explore this question, Strulov-Shlain examines a 2014 Israeli reform that banned prices ending Read more...
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Reposted by Avner Strulov-Shlain 🎗️
Journal of Public Economics @jpube.bsky.social · 12/08/2025
Just published in @jpube.bsky.social: "Impacts of home-care subsidies: Evidence from quasi-random assignment" By Yuval Ofek-Shanny, @avnershlain.bsky.social, & @dzeltzer.bsky.social www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti... #econsky #publiceconomics
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Avner Strulov-Shlain 🎗️ @avnershlain.bsky.social · 21/03/2025
⛽ For an academic study, we (@akraft.bsky.social and I) wish to interview US Gas Station owners to learn more about their business practices. Please share or send anyone you know to Andreas or me. Thanks!
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Reposted by Avner Strulov-Shlain 🎗️
Whimsy Planning Commission @whimsypc.bsky.social · 16/03/2025
We'll be back at Jimmy's on Tuesday 3/25 and EVERY LAST TUESDAY OF THE MONTH! Come once and you'll come again. @abionsky.bsky.social @williamhjhubbard.bsky.social @avnershlain.bsky.social @dfordon.bsky.social @elderserpiente.bsky.social
Whimsy Planning Commission announcing their improv show every last Tuesday of the month at Woodlawn Tap at 7:30pm
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Avner Strulov-Shlain 🎗️ @avnershlain.bsky.social · 12/03/2025
Thanks Neale!
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Avner Strulov-Shlain 🎗️ @avnershlain.bsky.social · 12/03/2025
Thanks, Colin!
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Avner Strulov-Shlain 🎗️ @avnershlain.bsky.social · 12/03/2025
I am very happy to share that I am being promoted to Associate Professor of Marketing at The University of Chicago Booth School of Business. I am incredibly grateful for my family, and for my friends, coauthors, mentors, and colleagues who made it all possible. Excited for the years ahead!
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Avner Strulov-Shlain 🎗️ @avnershlain.bsky.social · 10/03/2025
No wonder retailers ignore left digit bias. Indoctrination against it starts in school! Cc: @justinsydnor.bsky.social @nicolacetera.bsky.social
A math question for 7th graders in Chicago Public Schools showing a linear relationship between cars odometers and price. Decrease in average car price with discontinuities at 10k miles. From Lacetera Pope and Sydnor (2012)
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Avner Strulov-Shlain 🎗️ @avnershlain.bsky.social · 08/03/2025
My reaction to @cfcamerer.bsky.social as well ::blushing:: @annastansbury.bsky.social, your question is a core interest of mine and I have a couple of projects in the works on the topic. I would love to talk more if you’re interested.
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Avner Strulov-Shlain 🎗️ @avnershlain.bsky.social · 08/02/2025
And it is also crucial to note here that if the price list range or steps were different, the confused results would have been different. It just so happens that random answers => the four fold pattern.
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Avner Strulov-Shlain 🎗️ @avnershlain.bsky.social · 07/02/2025
An instant hit paper claimed that "Decisions under Risk Are Decisions under Complexity". Re-analysis shows no evidence in support of the claim, and perhaps even the opposite: - The experimental design causes noise to generate the results. - For non-confused participants risk != complexity.
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Reposted by Avner Strulov-Shlain 🎗️
Shengwu Li @shengwuli.bsky.social · 07/02/2025
🚨 Oprea (2024 AER) argued that prospect theory choice anomalies were not due to risk, but due to complexity-driven mistakes. But this new analysis convinces me that Oprea (2024) is substantially wrong. In my opinion, the paper should be retracted.
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Avner Strulov-Shlain 🎗️ @avnershlain.bsky.social · 05/02/2025
In summary: - Higher expectations increase goals (A) and performance (C). - Goals reflect expectations but do not affect them (!B). - Having a goal improves performance (D) but the level does not matter (!E). Check the paper for more details and findings papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
This figure shows the relationships between expectations, goals, and performance that we test in this paper. Solid lines indicate
those that are supported by data, while dashed lines are not.
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Avner Strulov-Shlain 🎗️ @avnershlain.bsky.social · 05/02/2025
How do goals & expectations affect what participants do? Easy practice & simply setting a goal both improve performance. Goal level itself matters less once expectations are set. Participants care about the goal (see bunching), but only locally.
The figure plots regression-adjusted average performance across treatment groups. Coefficients and 95% confidence intervals
from Table 3 with the mean in the omitted treatment (Medium practice, Baseline Goal) added. On the left panel, we plot the effects of
Practice Difficulty assignment, and on the right the effects of Goal Elicitation treatments.The figure plots the histogram of performance (number of tables solved) relative to the goal in the Baseline goal treatments. Data
are winsorized below at -25 and above at +25.
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Avner Strulov-Shlain 🎗️ @avnershlain.bsky.social · 05/02/2025
Do goals shape expectations? We find that expectations drive goal-setting. Manipulating expectations changes goals, but tweaking goal difficulty doesn't significantly affect expectations.
The figure shows the regression-adjusted average expected probability of reaching the goal for the different treatments.
Coefficients and 95% confidence intervals from an OLS regression of the expected likelihood of reaching a goal on Practice Difficulty
and Goal Elicitation treatments, controlling for skill. Mean in the omitted treatment (Medium practice, Baseline Goal) added.The figure plots the regression-adjusted average goals (dark circles) and median expected performance (light triangles) across
treatment groups. Coefficients and 95% confidence intervals from Table 2 with the mean in the omitted treatment (Medium practice,
Baseline Goal) added. On the left panel, we plot the effects of Practice Difficulty assignment, and on the right the effects of Goal Elicitation
treatments. For both outcomes, sample is limited to those who reported monotonic beliefs.
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Avner Strulov-Shlain 🎗️ @avnershlain.bsky.social · 05/02/2025
What goals do people choose? Participants typically set goals they expect to hit ~78% of the time. Few choose goals they think are less than 50% likely to be achieved.
The figure plots a histogram of the self-reported believed likelihood of reaching their goal across participants who set a goal in
the Baseline goal treatment.
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Avner Strulov-Shlain 🎗️ @avnershlain.bsky.social · 05/02/2025
In this new working paper we use a real-effort experiment to study the relationship between self-set goals and expectations, and how they affect performance. Do goals affect or reflect expectations? Do goals affect performance, conditional on expectations?
The figure illustrates the study design as a 3x4 between subject experiment. There are 3 Practice Difficulty arms which differ in
the last three tables practiced, cross randomized with 4 Goal Elicitation treatments.
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Avner Strulov-Shlain 🎗️ @avnershlain.bsky.social · 27/01/2025
Reassessment? (Not a Netanyahu fan) but getting the four soldiers home and then standing grounds against violations was smart and fruitful. www.haaretz.com/israel-news/...
haaretz.com
Hamas bent to Israel's pressure to release hostages earlier as Gazans return north
***
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Avner Strulov-Shlain 🎗️ @avnershlain.bsky.social · 26/01/2025
An alternative is that they think it will not collapse and they are trying to show strength of sorts and exert as much psychological torture on Israelis.
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Avner Strulov-Shlain 🎗️ @avnershlain.bsky.social · 26/01/2025
Of course it’s not good. But if you were Israel and Hamas started violating the agreement ever so slightly but blatantly, what would you do?
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Avner Strulov-Shlain 🎗️ @avnershlain.bsky.social · 25/01/2025
As @joshtdean.bsky.social figured out — Nighshade is of no help here.
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Avner Strulov-Shlain 🎗️ @avnershlain.bsky.social · 24/01/2025
At least the answer doesn't change
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Avner Strulov-Shlain 🎗️ @avnershlain.bsky.social · 24/01/2025
@aleximas.bsky.social referred me to Nightshade (nightshade.cs.uchicago.edu/whatis.html). Basically, if we find a good-for-its-time way to hide the instructions from AI, such as Nightshade, then can proceed.
nightshade.cs.uchicago.edu
Nightshade: Protecting Copyright
Since their arrival, generative AI models and their trainers have demonstrated their ability to download any online content for model training. For content owners and creators, few tools can prevent their content from being fed into a generative AI model against their will. Opt-out lists have been disregarded by model trainers in the past, and can be easily ignored with zero consequences. They are unverifiable and unenforceable, and those who violate opt-out lists and do-not-scrape directives can not be identified with high confidence.
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Avner Strulov-Shlain 🎗️ @avnershlain.bsky.social · 24/01/2025
I have so many responses but instead ::sigh::
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Avner Strulov-Shlain 🎗️ @avnershlain.bsky.social · 24/01/2025
It’s better to combine losses 😬
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Avner Strulov-Shlain 🎗️ @avnershlain.bsky.social · 24/01/2025
The end of online experiments?
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Avner Strulov-Shlain 🎗️ @avnershlain.bsky.social · 19/01/2025
in Hebrew we say you are in a state of “emotions storm” or even just “stormed” when having lots of emotions. I am stormed with hope, relief, anxiety, dread, regret, gratitude, anger (to name a few). Welcome back Romi, Emily, and Doron ❤️‍🩹 twitter.com/haaretznewsv...
twitter.com
הארץ חדשות on X: "רגעי מפגש השבות עם בני משפחותיהן, מהמרכז הרפואי שיבא בתל השומר. קרדיט: עומר מירון / לע"מ https://t.co/24AjD6fhk3" / X
רגעי מפגש השבות עם בני משפחותיהן, מהמרכז הרפואי שיבא בתל השומר. קרדיט: עומר מירון / לע"מ https://t.co/24AjD6fhk3
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Avner Strulov-Shlain 🎗️ @avnershlain.bsky.social · 03/01/2025
A road-trip inspired research idea, free disposal: Estimate the effect of speed limits on accidents by using interstate roads and difference in states limits. E.g, the I-55 is up to 75mph in AK, 70 in MO and 65 crossing to IL. With good enough data can be quite credible IMO.
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Avner Strulov-Shlain 🎗️ @avnershlain.bsky.social · 02/01/2025
Apparently. Also, mine won’t be the 100th streak to start on Jan 1st. I have a pretty long no-running streak though.
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Avner Strulov-Shlain 🎗️ @avnershlain.bsky.social · 01/01/2025
Cool. What’s the data here? Initially I thought it’s your streaks but even you can’t have 99 January firsts in eight years.
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Avner Strulov-Shlain 🎗️ @avnershlain.bsky.social · 29/12/2024
I wish there were less costly ways.
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Avner Strulov-Shlain 🎗️ @avnershlain.bsky.social · 27/12/2024
The best kind of Sufganiyot is Beignets. Happy Hanukkah!
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Avner Strulov-Shlain 🎗️ @avnershlain.bsky.social · 17/12/2024
www.wsj.com/lifestyle/tr...
wsj.com
Hotels, Concert Venues Must Now Show All Hidden ‘Junk Fees’ Right Away
A new FTC rule requires that businesses display all fees in the total price people see when they are first searching for tickets or for lodging.
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Avner Strulov-Shlain 🎗️ @avnershlain.bsky.social · 17/12/2024
Hotels, venues must disclose “junk fees” to consumers in initial search results Good legislation. The only downside I can think of for consumers is that you can no longer tell yourself (or your spouse) that “it is only $200 a night” when in reality it is $350.
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Avner Strulov-Shlain 🎗️ @avnershlain.bsky.social · 16/12/2024
I think it is totally okay if provided as information. The editor can make of it what they wish. What if B was written later but already published? It might affect the contribution of A.
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Avner Strulov-Shlain 🎗️ @avnershlain.bsky.social · 15/12/2024
The idea that if you are angry and think you are right then you can do whatever the f you want, and act however you want, is a dangerous one. And it seeps into real life very quickly. Scary times.
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Avner Strulov-Shlain 🎗️ @avnershlain.bsky.social · 15/12/2024
#econsky Economists: If you ever wondered what is “quantitative marketing” about, @avigoldfarb.bsky.social’s syllabus is a great place to fill in the gap. If you never wondered about it - you can learn about it nonetheless.
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Reposted by Avner Strulov-Shlain 🎗️
Avner Strulov-Shlain 🎗️ @avnershlain.bsky.social · 04/12/2024
⏰ Deadline approaching ⏰ -- send us your best work on Behavioral IO and Marketing by 12/15 #econsky
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Avner Strulov-Shlain 🎗️ @avnershlain.bsky.social · 13/12/2024
So also say Donnelly @giocompiani.bsky.social and Evers
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Avner Strulov-Shlain 🎗️ @avnershlain.bsky.social · 13/12/2024
What do you mean by seeing risk in context?
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Avner Strulov-Shlain 🎗️ @avnershlain.bsky.social · 12/12/2024
This is an anecdote of course, we actually have a lot of evidence consistent with PT and others. But the point is that these theories are good descriptive theories because they capture and distill something we all know is true. And same goes for complexity - we know we get stumped. We need both.
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Avner Strulov-Shlain 🎗️ @avnershlain.bsky.social · 12/12/2024
My friend’s mom always puts lottery scratch cards in their family xmas stockings. One year his dad found some prank cards. You scratch and for a few short minutes think you won $10K. People got very excited and then very upset. And they were more upset than happy! Losses loom larger than gains.
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Avner Strulov-Shlain 🎗️ @avnershlain.bsky.social · 12/12/2024
#econsky I agree that PT is descriptive, and complexity is important in driving choice patterns. But I think that the success of PT and behavioral econ is due to more than just explanatory power. These theories resonate. They are not surprising. The intuition brought the theory and evidence. Story:
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Reposted by Avner Strulov-Shlain 🎗️
George Wu @geowu.bsky.social · 11/12/2024
We're looking to hire a Postdoctoral Principal Researcher/Chief Scientist to work with @chicagobooth.bsky.social faculty in the Roman Family Center for Decision Research! Please pass along!
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Avner Strulov-Shlain 🎗️ @avnershlain.bsky.social · 06/12/2024
Selection or treatment though?
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Avner Strulov-Shlain 🎗️ @avnershlain.bsky.social · 06/12/2024
I would appreciate being added too. Thanks!
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Avner Strulov-Shlain 🎗️ @avnershlain.bsky.social · 05/12/2024
Sad but not surprising. I have learned beyond doubt in the past year+ that people by and large have no empathy if they can “justify” someone’s murder. Including those who are very empathetic to some victims.
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Avner Strulov-Shlain 🎗️ @avnershlain.bsky.social · 05/12/2024
I’m curious — how many of your Spotify end of the year top5 artists would you get right? If you haven’t checked your summary yet even better - guess first and then check and please let us know!
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Avner Strulov-Shlain 🎗️ @avnershlain.bsky.social · 04/12/2024
⏰ Deadline approaching ⏰ -- send us your best work on Behavioral IO and Marketing by 12/15 #econsky
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Avner Strulov-Shlain 🎗️ @avnershlain.bsky.social · 02/12/2024
What better gift to give your kids than low expectations for life?
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