Reposted by @avariin.bsky.socialDavid Burbach 🇺🇸 @dburbach.bsky.social · 29/06/2025With this budget, ICE alone would have nearly as large a detention operation as all 50 states' prison systems combined. Bigger budget than the Marine Corps. Police-state levels of spending 23057342814 0
avariin.bsky.social @avariin.bsky.social · 30/06/2025NYT is a rag at this point when it comes to so many issues and just being an uncritical government (Trump) mouthpiece 000 0
Reposted by @avariin.bsky.socialGeoff Brumfiel @gbrumfiel.bsky.social · 29/06/2025NYT with the story that Grossi now says Iran could resume enriching in “months.” www.nytimes.com/2025/06/29/u...nytimes.comU.N. Inspector Says Iran Could Be Enriching Fuel Again in a ‘Matter of Months’ 18826 0
Reposted by @avariin.bsky.socialJeffrey Lewis @armscontrolwonk.bsky.social · 25/06/2025Based on videos taken in Jordan, @slair.bsky.social was able to identify all of Israel's missile defense sites, determine the interceptor type based on their burn-time and then estimate the number of interceptors fired. A tour-de-force. www.armscontrolwonk.com/archive/1220...armscontrolwonk.comExhaustion and Inflection: Estimating Interceptor Expenditures in the Israel-Iran ConflictFollowing Israel’s twelve-day bombing campaign against Iran’s leaders, nuclear facilities and missile program, two key questions have been how deep is [...] 820471 0
Reposted by @avariin.bsky.socialSpencer Ackerman @attackerman.bsky.social · 24/06/2025Hey you’ll never believe this, but the thing that everyone who knew anything about this said over the last dozen years would happen if you bombed the Iranian nuclear facilities happenednytimes.comStrike Set Back Iran’s Nuclear Program by Only a Few Months, U.S. Report Says 18709140 0
Reposted by @avariin.bsky.socialJeffrey Lewis @armscontrolwonk.bsky.social · 24/06/2025Think of treaties as like vaccines -- more effective than quack cures but deeply unpopular among the stupidest people on earth. 13875187 0
Reposted by @avariin.bsky.socialKevin M. Kruse @kevinmkruse.bsky.social · 22/06/2025They’re going to try to make you feel insane for opposing this war. They’ll ignore protests and downplay any opposition. They’ll try to strongarm you into submission. They did it with Iraq and they’ll do it again. And then a few years later they’ll pretend they were with you all along. 158115532737 0
Reposted by @avariin.bsky.socialSpencer Ackerman @attackerman.bsky.social · 22/06/2025Asked about the March ODNI assessment that there is no restarted nuclear program, & if there's been any new intelligence, Hegseth doesn't answer, just says that Trump concluded there was "a threat." 717336 0
Reposted by @avariin.bsky.socialBill Grueskin @bgrueskin.bsky.social · 22/06/2025This is not an open-ended conflict but we will retaliate fiercely against Iran if it strikes back. Got it? 1623030 0
Reposted by @avariin.bsky.socialFactPost @factpostnews.bsky.social · 22/06/2025Host: Are you saying the US did not see intelligence that the Supreme Leader had ordered weaponization? Rubio: That’s irrelevant Host: No, that's a key point Rubio: No it’s not… Forget about intelligence 117981792537 0
Reposted by @avariin.bsky.socialJeffrey Lewis @armscontrolwonk.bsky.social · 23/06/2025Let's say Iran decides to rush a bomb. Iran can install ~1.5 cascades a week. In six weeks, it could have 9 cascades of IR-6 machines. It would take those machines about 60 days to enrich all 400 kg to WGU. Altogether that's about five months although IMMV. 12/17 567262 0
Reposted by @avariin.bsky.socialJeffrey Lewis @armscontrolwonk.bsky.social · 23/06/2025This means Iran has retained 400 kg of 60% HEU, the ability to manufacture centrifuges, and one, possibly two underground enrichment sites. That is also to say nothing of possible secret sites, which opponents of the JCPOA used to invoke all the freaking time. 11/17 7950125 0
Reposted by @avariin.bsky.socialJeffrey Lewis @armscontrolwonk.bsky.social · 23/06/2025Let me say again: Iran said it had a new enrichment facility. The IAEA was about to go see a new (empty) enrichment facility. But before that could happen, Israel struck other facilities in Iran -- but not the new one. See the problem? 10/17 8997169 0
Reposted by @avariin.bsky.socialJeffrey Lewis @armscontrolwonk.bsky.social · 23/06/2025In 2022, Iran moved a centrifuge production line to "the heart of the mountain" there. This facility is huge -- we estimated 10,000 m2 or more -- and we don't really know what else it might house (like enrichment or conversion). 8/17 bsky.app/profile/arms... 366359 0
Reposted by @avariin.bsky.socialJoe Cirincione @joecirin.bsky.social · 22/06/2025A brilliant analysis from @edwardluce.bsky.social. Please read every word. Here is just an excerpt. www.ft.com/content/c689... 22545178 0
avariin.bsky.social @avariin.bsky.social · 22/06/2025Anyone know what GIS software or website he's using? 🤔 Perhaps Planet Labs or BlackSky Spectra? 000 0
Reposted by @avariin.bsky.socialJeffrey Lewis @armscontrolwonk.bsky.social · 22/06/2025BDA is hard and uncertain. Normally, I would expect the USG to overestimate BDA (as it did against Yugoslavia in 1999) for totally forgivable reasons like -- "Well, we hit the target and the calculation says that "should have resulted in x damage." But they seem appropriately cautious. 47113 0
Reposted by @avariin.bsky.socialKombiz Lavasany @kombiz.bsky.social · 17/06/2025People can be against a regime and also against being bombed into a new government. Iran is a country of 90 million, at its pits, just the supporters of the regime is larger than the total population of Iraq (Afghanistan or Vietnam). 19520 0
Reposted by @avariin.bsky.socialRehman Siddiq @rehmansiddiq.com · 15/06/2025Innocent civilians keep dying in Israel and Iran while warmongering leaders hide in their safe underground bunkers, fueling the conflict. Their supporters tweet from safe homes overseas, far from the bloodshed. Stop the madness. #NoToWar #IsraeliranWar 1116826 0
Reposted by @avariin.bsky.socialJeffrey Lewis @armscontrolwonk.bsky.social · 13/06/2025Well that was timely! Netanyahu just said the quiet part out loud, telling Iranians that the strike has "cleared the path" for them to overthrow the regime.youtube.comPrime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu Addresses the Iranian PeopleYouTube video by IsraeliPM 1213544 0
Reposted by @avariin.bsky.socialJeffrey Lewis @armscontrolwonk.bsky.social · 13/06/2025Netanyahu's attack on Iran is about sparking regime change with just enough strikes on nuclear facilities to frame it as an act of preemptive self-defense. I doubt this will turn out well. My latest in @ForeignPolicy. foreignpolicy.com/2025/06/13/i...foreignpolicy.comNuclear Claims Are a Smoke Screen for Hopes of Toppling IranThe Israeli strikes aren’t about facilities or centrifuges, but regime change. 921770 0
avariin.bsky.social @avariin.bsky.social · 13/06/2025I love how you didn't say anything about it being bad but that's what people who have no idea what they're talking about assume you meant. No nuance 000 0
avariin.bsky.social @avariin.bsky.social · 23/11/2024He critiques people's (esp. famous and powerful) fashion using non-aggressive language that just shows how silly those people are lol 100 0
Reposted by @avariin.bsky.socialTimothy Snyder @timothysnyder.bsky.social · 22/11/2024Important set of resources here wagingnonviolence.org/2024/11/how-...wagingnonviolence.orgHow we can meet the challenges of authoritarianismThis is not our first rodeo with authoritarianism. Americans have collectively risen to seemingly impossible challenges in the past, and we can again. 521831682 0
avariin.bsky.social @avariin.bsky.social · 21/11/2024As someone getting more into personally owning data and moving away from the whims of streaming services and big tech, this is awesome! 010 0
avariin.bsky.social @avariin.bsky.social · 21/11/2024My views on this ebb and flow depending on my emotions and the information I am bombarded with, but in the good moments I believe the joy I experience being around and seen by my friends and chosen family are the only world I need and those moments are everything to me (if that makes sense) 000 0
avariin.bsky.social @avariin.bsky.social · 21/11/2024I really wish we could shut this garbage down. They aren't news, they're a propaganda outlet and everybody who doesn't take it as gospel realizes that 000 0
avariin.bsky.social @avariin.bsky.social · 20/11/2024That's my point. This does not exist yet. They are using language that insinuates that they've solved this problem when they simply haven't yet. There is no PDS hosting service like Wordpress, and there are no other comparable alternative servers to take my data to. It's just this app. 140 0
avariin.bsky.social @avariin.bsky.social · 20/11/2024And for anyone that does not have the technical know-how to self host, this statement means nothing in practice for them. I'm mildly proficient with navigating, using, and interfacing software, yet barely understand how I would take my data/ followers somewhere else that would be useful/usable *now* 140 0
avariin.bsky.social @avariin.bsky.social · 20/11/2024But where would we be able to go with our data and followers today, or tomorrow, or next week? There are still no meaningful alternative locations to take our data, so stating "we've given you the freedom to exit" feels preemptive & disingenuous at best until the ecosystem is meaningfully existent 170 0
avariin.bsky.social @avariin.bsky.social · 19/11/2024I believe at this point any form of social media that extends beyond your immediate real world associations is toxic garbage, be it ignorant and hateful or delusional optimism, platitudes, and "resistance". Just go read a damn book instead of participating in engagement farming for either side ffs 000 0
avariin.bsky.social @avariin.bsky.social · 19/11/2024I wouldn't trust anyone who considered watching cable news worthwhile in the firstplace 000 0
avariin.bsky.social @avariin.bsky.social · 19/11/2024They either don't understand reality, or they see it and refuse to accept it and rather decide that mass disenfranchisement of and violence against Americans who don't agree with and support their worldviews and way of life is the answer. That's where we're at and what we're about to witness. 041 0
avariin.bsky.social @avariin.bsky.social · 19/11/2024Now we're simply about to import the violence we've wrought on the world for centuries at scale. The Republicans have wanted this for decades and finally found their answer in Trump. 000 0
avariin.bsky.social @avariin.bsky.social · 19/11/2024We... literally had a civil war over the South believing they had a right to enslave people...? Women & all black people couldn't vote til the 1900s. The Democrats have been actively aiding genocide for over a year. We've been here before. This is America as it's always been. 100 0
avariin.bsky.social @avariin.bsky.social · 19/11/2024Democrats' "positive thinking" is going to get those of us being targeted for not being white, cishet, male, Christian, or wealthy deported, stripped of our rights, and/or killed directly (state & vigilante violence) or indirectly (suicide & blocking access to healthcare) 010 0
avariin.bsky.social @avariin.bsky.social · 19/11/2024"Today, in this post-election environment, I believe that delusional Democrats continue to think we live in a better country than we do, ignoring the fact that most Americans don’t believe that racism and misogyny are as systemically embedded as they are." www.concordmonitor.com/My-Turn-Amer...concordmonitor.comOpinion: America’s Taliban chose Donald Trump. Why are we surprised?Robert Azzi is a photographer and writer who lives in Exeter. His columns are archived at robertazzitheother.substack.com. ‘Ignorance allied with power is the most ferocious enemy of justice,” James ... 020 0
avariin.bsky.social @avariin.bsky.social · 19/11/2024Thank you for listening and being kind. I hope I'll get to the other side someday. I have people who support me even if half the country will not 110 0
avariin.bsky.social @avariin.bsky.social · 19/11/2024I see it every day (Ukraine, Gaza, Sudan, Iraq, Lebanon). I had just hoped we wouldn't open the door and welcome it here willingly. Now we have. All for "cheaper gas & eggs" 131 0
avariin.bsky.social @avariin.bsky.social · 19/11/2024They operate under plausible deniability so their collusion is rarely explicit &/or in writing. The appearance of all powerful Russian influence is itself useful even if their direct operations would otherwise have a negligible impact. So in that sense they've succeeded. 231 0
avariin.bsky.social @avariin.bsky.social · 19/11/2024I see it as a complex dynamic of those in or lusting for power using any opportunity to their advantage regardless of the negative societal & systemic effects those actions will have. Even insinuation or simply not pushing back means they are willing to accept illegitimate foreign interference 121 0
avariin.bsky.social @avariin.bsky.social · 19/11/2024I do have days where I have the energy to live and have hope, but my mental health and mood swings can be brutal, especially if it involves life and death. I've followed Ukraine & Russia closely since 2014 & fear for an acquaintance I know in Kyiv. I fear the corruption & repression are now here too 110 0
avariin.bsky.social @avariin.bsky.social · 19/11/2024Thank you, I appreciate it. My degree was mostly reading and writing, but I have yet to find a way to apply it to support myself financially lol 🥴 110 0
