Reposted by @avariin.bsky.socialDavid Burbach 🇺🇸 @dburbach.bsky.social · 29/06/2025With this budget, ICE alone would have nearly as large a detention operation as all 50 states' prison systems combined. Bigger budget than the Marine Corps. Police-state levels of spending 23057342814 0
Reposted by @avariin.bsky.socialGeoff Brumfiel @gbrumfiel.bsky.social · 29/06/2025NYT with the story that Grossi now says Iran could resume enriching in “months.” www.nytimes.com/2025/06/29/u...nytimes.comU.N. Inspector Says Iran Could Be Enriching Fuel Again in a ‘Matter of Months’ 18826 0
Reposted by @avariin.bsky.socialJeffrey Lewis @armscontrolwonk.bsky.social · 25/06/2025Based on videos taken in Jordan, @slair.bsky.social was able to identify all of Israel's missile defense sites, determine the interceptor type based on their burn-time and then estimate the number of interceptors fired. A tour-de-force. www.armscontrolwonk.com/archive/1220...armscontrolwonk.comExhaustion and Inflection: Estimating Interceptor Expenditures in the Israel-Iran ConflictFollowing Israel’s twelve-day bombing campaign against Iran’s leaders, nuclear facilities and missile program, two key questions have been how deep is [...] 820471 0
Reposted by @avariin.bsky.socialSpencer Ackerman @attackerman.bsky.social · 24/06/2025Hey you’ll never believe this, but the thing that everyone who knew anything about this said over the last dozen years would happen if you bombed the Iranian nuclear facilities happenednytimes.comStrike Set Back Iran’s Nuclear Program by Only a Few Months, U.S. Report Says 18709140 0
Reposted by @avariin.bsky.socialJeffrey Lewis @armscontrolwonk.bsky.social · 24/06/2025Think of treaties as like vaccines -- more effective than quack cures but deeply unpopular among the stupidest people on earth. 13875187 0
Reposted by @avariin.bsky.socialKevin M. Kruse @kevinmkruse.bsky.social · 22/06/2025They’re going to try to make you feel insane for opposing this war. They’ll ignore protests and downplay any opposition. They’ll try to strongarm you into submission. They did it with Iraq and they’ll do it again. And then a few years later they’ll pretend they were with you all along. 158115532737 0
Reposted by @avariin.bsky.socialSpencer Ackerman @attackerman.bsky.social · 22/06/2025Asked about the March ODNI assessment that there is no restarted nuclear program, & if there's been any new intelligence, Hegseth doesn't answer, just says that Trump concluded there was "a threat." 717336 0
Reposted by @avariin.bsky.socialBill Grueskin @bgrueskin.bsky.social · 22/06/2025This is not an open-ended conflict but we will retaliate fiercely against Iran if it strikes back. Got it? 1623030 0
Reposted by @avariin.bsky.socialFactPost @factpostnews.bsky.social · 22/06/2025Host: Are you saying the US did not see intelligence that the Supreme Leader had ordered weaponization? Rubio: That’s irrelevant Host: No, that's a key point Rubio: No it’s not… Forget about intelligence 117981792537 0
Reposted by @avariin.bsky.socialJeffrey Lewis @armscontrolwonk.bsky.social · 23/06/2025Let's say Iran decides to rush a bomb. Iran can install ~1.5 cascades a week. In six weeks, it could have 9 cascades of IR-6 machines. It would take those machines about 60 days to enrich all 400 kg to WGU. Altogether that's about five months although IMMV. 12/17 567262 0
Reposted by @avariin.bsky.socialJeffrey Lewis @armscontrolwonk.bsky.social · 23/06/2025This means Iran has retained 400 kg of 60% HEU, the ability to manufacture centrifuges, and one, possibly two underground enrichment sites. That is also to say nothing of possible secret sites, which opponents of the JCPOA used to invoke all the freaking time. 11/17 7950125 0
Reposted by @avariin.bsky.socialJeffrey Lewis @armscontrolwonk.bsky.social · 23/06/2025Let me say again: Iran said it had a new enrichment facility. The IAEA was about to go see a new (empty) enrichment facility. But before that could happen, Israel struck other facilities in Iran -- but not the new one. See the problem? 10/17 8997169 0
Reposted by @avariin.bsky.socialJeffrey Lewis @armscontrolwonk.bsky.social · 23/06/2025In 2022, Iran moved a centrifuge production line to "the heart of the mountain" there. This facility is huge -- we estimated 10,000 m2 or more -- and we don't really know what else it might house (like enrichment or conversion). 8/17 bsky.app/profile/arms... 366359 0
Reposted by @avariin.bsky.socialJoe Cirincione @joecirin.bsky.social · 22/06/2025A brilliant analysis from @edwardluce.bsky.social. Please read every word. Here is just an excerpt. www.ft.com/content/c689... 22545178 0
Reposted by @avariin.bsky.socialJeffrey Lewis @armscontrolwonk.bsky.social · 22/06/2025BDA is hard and uncertain. Normally, I would expect the USG to overestimate BDA (as it did against Yugoslavia in 1999) for totally forgivable reasons like -- "Well, we hit the target and the calculation says that "should have resulted in x damage." But they seem appropriately cautious. 47113 0
Reposted by @avariin.bsky.socialKombiz Lavasany @kombiz.bsky.social · 17/06/2025People can be against a regime and also against being bombed into a new government. Iran is a country of 90 million, at its pits, just the supporters of the regime is larger than the total population of Iraq (Afghanistan or Vietnam). 19520 0
Reposted by @avariin.bsky.socialRehman Siddiq @rehmansiddiq.com · 15/06/2025Innocent civilians keep dying in Israel and Iran while warmongering leaders hide in their safe underground bunkers, fueling the conflict. Their supporters tweet from safe homes overseas, far from the bloodshed. Stop the madness. #NoToWar #IsraeliranWar 1116826 0
Reposted by @avariin.bsky.socialJeffrey Lewis @armscontrolwonk.bsky.social · 13/06/2025Well that was timely! Netanyahu just said the quiet part out loud, telling Iranians that the strike has "cleared the path" for them to overthrow the regime.youtube.comPrime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu Addresses the Iranian PeopleYouTube video by IsraeliPM 1213544 0
Reposted by @avariin.bsky.socialJeffrey Lewis @armscontrolwonk.bsky.social · 13/06/2025Netanyahu's attack on Iran is about sparking regime change with just enough strikes on nuclear facilities to frame it as an act of preemptive self-defense. I doubt this will turn out well. My latest in @ForeignPolicy. foreignpolicy.com/2025/06/13/i...foreignpolicy.comNuclear Claims Are a Smoke Screen for Hopes of Toppling IranThe Israeli strikes aren’t about facilities or centrifuges, but regime change. 921770 0
Reposted by @avariin.bsky.socialTimothy Snyder @timothysnyder.bsky.social · 22/11/2024Important set of resources here wagingnonviolence.org/2024/11/how-...wagingnonviolence.orgHow we can meet the challenges of authoritarianismThis is not our first rodeo with authoritarianism. Americans have collectively risen to seemingly impossible challenges in the past, and we can again. 521831682 0
avariin.bsky.social @avariin.bsky.social · 19/11/2024I believe at this point any form of social media that extends beyond your immediate real world associations is toxic garbage, be it ignorant and hateful or delusional optimism, platitudes, and "resistance". Just go read a damn book instead of participating in engagement farming for either side ffs 000 0
avariin.bsky.social @avariin.bsky.social · 19/11/2024Democrats' "positive thinking" is going to get those of us being targeted for not being white, cishet, male, Christian, or wealthy deported, stripped of our rights, and/or killed directly (state & vigilante violence) or indirectly (suicide & blocking access to healthcare) 010 0
avariin.bsky.social @avariin.bsky.social · 19/11/2024"Today, in this post-election environment, I believe that delusional Democrats continue to think we live in a better country than we do, ignoring the fact that most Americans don’t believe that racism and misogyny are as systemically embedded as they are." www.concordmonitor.com/My-Turn-Amer...concordmonitor.comOpinion: America’s Taliban chose Donald Trump. Why are we surprised?Robert Azzi is a photographer and writer who lives in Exeter. His columns are archived at robertazzitheother.substack.com. ‘Ignorance allied with power is the most ferocious enemy of justice,” James ... 020 0
avariin.bsky.social @avariin.bsky.social · 18/11/2024I don't think I'll make it thru 4 more years of Tr*mp & Republican hell 000 0
avariin.bsky.social @avariin.bsky.social · 18/11/2024The day of the apparatchik begins on January 20, 2025 000 0
avariin.bsky.social @avariin.bsky.social · 18/11/2024I'm on bsky bc I value federation (even if bsky is not 100% federated). I am *not* here bc I want to be in a delusional Democrat bubble, even if I also despise Twitter for turning into a right wing hate machine. Delusional optimism is not inherently better than delusional hatred. 000 0
avariin.bsky.social @avariin.bsky.social · 18/11/2024This app is now just low effort engagement farming political posts as well. Social media is shit everywhere 000 0
avariin.bsky.social @avariin.bsky.social · 15/11/2024Idk why I'm on this app either. Social media just makes me depressed and self conscious 020 0
