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Adam Chess

@arsonade.bsky.social
687 followers 3.4K following 258 posts

M.A. philosophy, MPH Healthcare Data Scientist. He/Him. Philosophy, public health, stats, data science, scifi, art, TTRPGs, game design, and comics. I mostly just repost when I learn something

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Reposted by Adam Chess
Emily Moin @emilymoin.com · 01/10/2026
uhh hey kalshi gimme a 12-leg same-game parlay on right THR
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mr. TIM @timkellogg.me · 15/09/2026
Jev: Fable-level model that doesn’t charge for output tokens because they’re too cheap to meter it’s not general though, it only makes decisions, doesn’t generate text, but input tokens are measured by the billion ($42/btok) typesafe.ai/blog/introdu...
Scatter plot titled "Average of 4 workflows: accuracy vs cost" comparing AI models from TypeSafe, OpenAI, Anthropic, and Fireworks across accuracy (y-axis, 40% to 80%) and cost per workflow in USD on a logarithmic scale (x-axis, $0.0001 to $1).
Data points are split into two categories: workflows (diamonds) and single prompts (circles). A frontier line highlights the most efficient workflow models—where no point is both cheaper and more accurate—connecting Jev (TypeSafe) at $0.0002 and 68% accuracy, luna (OpenAI) at $0.002 and 67% accuracy, terra (OpenAI) at $0.04 and 68% accuracy, and sol (OpenAI) at the top accuracy of 74% for $0.08. Single prompts (circles) and Anthropic models (opus 5, sonnet 5, haiku 4.5) sit below the frontier line, indicating higher cost for equivalent or lower accuracy.
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Scott McGrath @smcgrath.phd · 01/05/2026
OpenAI’s o1 model correctly diagnosed 78.3% of cases in NEJM clinicopathologic conferences, outperforming human physicians. The model also maintained high accuracy on real-world, unstructured data from a major emergency department. #MedSky
science.org
Performance of a large language model on the reasoning tasks of a physician
More than 65 years ago, complex clinical diagnostic reasoning cases were introduced as the gold standard for the evaluation of expert medical computing systems, a standard that has held ever since.…
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Adam Chess @arsonade.bsky.social · 21/03/2026
THE COIN DON’T HAVE NO SAY medium.com/@rosequarter... This was a great read
medium.com
THE COIN DON’T HAVE NO SAY
“It’s just you.” Encoding and decoding in tabletop roleplaying games.
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Margaret Killjoy @margaret.bsky.social · 22/01/2026
I came to Minneapolis to report on what's going on, and one of the main questions I showed up with is "just what is the scale of the resistance?" After all, we're all used to the news calling Portland a "war zone" or whatever when it's just some protests in one part of town.
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Andrew Gordon Wilson @andrewgwils.bsky.social · 07/01/2026
We introduce epiplexity, a new measure of information that provides a foundation for how to select, generate, or transform data for learning systems. We have been working on this for almost 2 years, and I cannot contain my excitement! arxiv.org/abs/2601.03220 1/7
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Adam Chess @arsonade.bsky.social · 09/12/2025
Yep. This has been my approach so far
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mr. TIM @timkellogg.me · 06/12/2025
TITANS & MIRAS: real continual learning MIRAS = a unifying theory of transformers (attention) and state space models (SSM, e.g. Mamba, RNNs) TITANS = an optimal MIRAS implementation that’s “halfway between” SSM & transformer with a CL memory module let’s dive in! research.google/blog/titans-...
research.google
Titans + MIRAS: Helping AI have long-term memory
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Lux Stella @luxstella500.bsky.social · 24/11/2025
no wonder g_d was pissed when they ate that fruit
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Gregg Gonsalves @gregggonsalves.bsky.social · 06/11/2025
It’s time for us to reconnect with the radical, system-changing spirit that was once at the heart of our field. #publichealth #episky #medsky #activism www.thenation.com/article/acti...
thenation.com
Public Health Was a Place for Warriors Once. It Needs to Be Again.
It's time for us to reconnect with the radical, system-changing spirit that was once at the heart of our field.
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Many Sided Media @manysidedmedia.bsky.social · 04/11/2025
Want a peek inside a 1,200 player RPG? Read out interview with @samsorensen.bsky.social about OVER/UNDER, the massive play-by-post game that's a part of Mothership Month ( @mothership.bsky.social ) manysidednewsletter.substack.com/p/inside-a-1...
manysidednewsletter.substack.com
Inside a 1,200 Player RPG
A closer look at Over/Under, the massive play-by-post game
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Gabe Grand @gabegrand.bsky.social · 27/10/2025
Do AI agents ask good questions? We built “Collaborative Battleship” to find out—and discovered that weaker LMs + Bayesian inference can beat GPT-5 at 1% of the cost. Paper, code & demos: gabegrand.github.io/battleship Here's what we learned about building rational information-seeking agents... 🧵🔽
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paris martineau @paris.nyc · 14/10/2025
my latest investigation for @consumerreports.org is based on months of reporting and 60+ lab tests of leading protein supplements we found that most protein powders and shakes have more lead in one serving than our experts say is safe to have in a day (🧵) www.consumerreports.org/lead/protein...
consumerreports.org
Protein Powders and Shakes Contain High Levels of Lead - Consumer Reports
CR tests of 23 popular protein powders and shakes found that most contain high levels of lead.
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Phillip Isola @phillipisola.bsky.social · 10/10/2025
Over the past year, my lab has been working on fleshing out theory + applications of the Platonic Representation Hypothesis. Today I want to share two new works on this topic: Eliciting higher alignment: arxiv.org/abs/2510.02425 Unpaired learning of unified reps: arxiv.org/abs/2510.08492 1/9
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⚡️🌙 @dystopiabreaker.xyz · 06/10/2025
if you're curious about the architecture and mechanics of LLMs, this site has a really excellent explorable interactive visualization. it helps build intuition for how massive these models are, what 'interpretability' means, and the complexity involved here bbycroft.net/llm
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Evan Simko-Bednarski @simko-bednarski.bsky.social · 04/10/2025
“[D]ooming is itself a liberation from the burden of choice. If everything is ruined forever, if your allies have already forsaken you, if the battle is already lost, you aren't responsible for your choices. They can't affect the outcome. You're free.”
liberalcurrents.com
Democrats Must Embrace War Mindset
We have exited a long period of peace and entered into a struggle not unlike war, in which all the old certainties have gone malleable and the future of the republic is at stake.
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Benjamin Laufer @laufer.bsky.social · 14/08/2025
In a new paper with @didaoh and Jon Kleinberg, we mapped the family trees of 1.86 million AI models on Hugging Face — the largest open-model ecosystem in the world. AI evolution looks kind of like biology, but with some strange twists. 🧬🤖
The 2500th, 250th, 50th, and 25th largest model families on Hugging Face. They show varying numbers of generations (between 3 and 8) and different edge types, including adapters, finetunes, merges, and quantizations.
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lastpositivist.bsky.social @lastpositivist.bsky.social · 23/09/2025
Oh. My. God. www.popsci.com/environment/...
popsci.com
First known wild ‘grue jay’ hybrid spotted in Texas
Green and blue jays are crossing paths as temperatures rise.
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Olúfẹ́mi O. Táíwò @olufemiotaiwo.bsky.social · 21/09/2025
okay AI controversy aside, just talking as a nerd for a second: this is such a cool paper
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Peli Grietzer @peligrietzer.bsky.social · 18/09/2025
LLMs becoming superhuman at all games & competitions but not even normal-expert good at anything that's not a game or competition continues to raise deep questions about whether games & competitions are a secret natural kind
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Pookleblinky @pookleblinky.bsky.social · 08/04/2024
Solar luminosity around 3.5 billion years ago was only about 70% of what it is right now. Which means that when life arose on earth, it was outside the sun's habitability zone: liquid water should not have been able to exist. Faint Young Sun Paradox
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Adam Chess @arsonade.bsky.social · 26/08/2025
It seems clear that the current historical moment will have a major impact on culture. Even recent art feels anachronistic. Movies involving govt/cops more obviously, but also just the undertones of social stability. It feels like it meant something different to make music last year. Any art really.
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Census API Tracker @censusapitracker.bsky.social · 11/08/2025
Hello, Bluesky! This account automatically posts updates when the Census Bureau APIs add or remove datasets. See the full tracker at www.hrecht.com/census-api-d...
hrecht.com
Tracking Census Dataset Changes
See when the U.S. Census Bureau adds or removes datasets.
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Nicola Rennie @nrennie.bsky.social · 18/08/2025
If you're interested in learning #JuliaLang and are currently an #RStats user (or even if you're not!), then here's a little introduction to getting started! 📊 Blog post: nrennie.rbind.io/blog/introdu... #QuartoPub #Julia @tidierjl.bsky.social
nrennie.rbind.io
Introduction to Julia for R users – Nicola Rennie
This blog post will give R users an overview of what Julia is and why they might want to use it, introduce some data processing Julia packages, and show how they can incorporate Julia into existing R ...
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Adam Chess @arsonade.bsky.social · 26/07/2025
This one hurts. I've always had respect for the way USPTF operates. It should be a source of national pride
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The New Yorker @newyorker.com · 23/07/2025
The chief of a unit at the National Institute of Mental Health estimates that between one and five per cent of people who have been diagnosed with schizophrenia actually have an autoimmune condition.
newyorker.com
Mary Had Schizophrenia—Then Suddenly She Didn’t
Some psychiatric patients may actually have treatable autoimmune conditions. But what happens to the newly sane?
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Judd Legum @juddlegum.bsky.social · 16/07/2025
1. We interrupt this programming for some LEGITIMATELY GOOD NEWS Violent crime in Baltimore has PLUMMETED to historic lows How did the city do it? Baltimore adopted a comprehensive set of "woke" policies, treating violence as a public health issue
popular.info
The secret to Baltimore's extraordinary year
This April, Baltimore saw five homicides.
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Adam Chess @arsonade.bsky.social · 10/07/2025
Take 1 basic ramen packet Carefully open the side. Extract the flavor organ and reserve Carefully crack the ramen in the bag, avoid noodle ejecta Pour in like 1/4 of the flavor packet Break it up a bit more Close the bag with your hand and shake (not above your head!) Enjoy your noodle chips. Freak
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Tim Clare @timclare.bsky.social · 01/07/2025
16 years ago, I found myself in the back garden of a couple I'd just met, as they showed me their pillow fighting arena. The lesson they taught me about games - especially competitive ones - has stayed with me ever since, but I forgot to mention it in interviews when asked if competition is bad. So:
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Aaron Voigt @aavoigt.bsky.social · 02/07/2025
@onlyplaywizards.com’s “Public Health Wargame” is a fascinating intersection of tabletop rpgs and my day job, and I couldn’t miss the chance to talk about it
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Sticky Doodler 🔜 PeopleCon 3 @stickydoodler.bsky.social · 29/06/2025
A few takeaways from my conversations with librarians at #ALAAC2025 last night: 📝 YES, journaling games are a great fit for libraries, because literacy 📝 YES, many libraries have D&D clubs but not enough DMs, and journaling games -- the ultimate GM-less game -- are a potential solution BUT... 1/▶️
zine rack displaying multiple journaling games on a table, in a room with lots of other tables where people are playing board games
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Solid Evidence @solidevidence.bsky.social · 28/06/2025
I’m thrilled to announce the update of our water surveillance dashboard. Many improvements, and our first substantial move into ‘OneHealth’. Read to the end to find the Easter Egg. 1/ dholab.github.io/public_viz/0...
dholab.github.io
Wastewater Surveillance Dashboards
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Adam Chess @arsonade.bsky.social · 27/06/2025
I loved everything about this
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Colin Carlson @colincarlson.bsky.social · 18/06/2025
Some new science 🚨👉 Wildfires drive people indoors, increasing RSV, influenza, and #Covid transmission. If even 10% of people #mask, it could offset that effect - protecting them from both viruses and air pollution. Another facet of the climate-pandemic connection journals.plos.org/climate/arti...
journals.plos.org
Disruption of outdoor activities caused by wildfire smoke shapes circulation of respiratory pathogens
Author summary The effects of climate change on human health are becoming more evident, but we often overlook one crucial factor: how extreme weather events influence our behaviors and, in turn, the s...
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Ethan Mollick @emollick.bsky.social · 14/06/2025
👀This is impressive: Using an autonomous agent based on o3-mini and GPT-4.1, a team from Harvard, MIT & other institutions reproduced and updated an entire issue of Cochrane Reviews in two days… saving 12 person-years of work. The AI reviews captured more papers & were more accurate than humans.
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SprintingOwlDesigns @sprintingowl.bsky.social · 04/06/2025
It's that time again. It's time for the world's most important tabletop award ceremony, The Sprinties! YOU can win one of the most SOUGHT AFTER awards in TABLETOP RPGs just by SUBMITTING YOUR GAME. Post your own game below and it will WIN A SPRINTY.
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mr. TIM @timkellogg.me · 30/05/2025
slop forensics this guy uses bioinformatics techniques to cluster LLM outputs based on n-grams surprising: the new DeepSeek R1 0528 clusters closer to Gemini, implying they switched from openai synthetic training data to google github.com/sam-paech/sl...
A tree diagram shows the evolutionary or developmental lineage of various language models, ending with a red arrow pointing from “deepseek-ai/DeepSeek-R1” to “deepseek-ai/DeepSeek-R1-0528,” indicating the latter is a new version derived from the former. Models are clustered by family or architecture, with DeepSeek’s lineage branching from qwen/qwen3 models. Other clusters include Meta’s LLaMA models, Google’s Gemma models, OpenAI’s GPT models, Anthropic’s Claude models, and Mistral models. Each node is labeled with the organization and model name, with colored dots marking model families.
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Milan Weibel 🔷 @weibac.bsky.social · 27/05/2025
w h a t "Pruning as few as a single parameter can destroy an LLM's ability to generate text -- increasing perplexity by 3 orders of magnitude and reducing zero-shot accuracy to guessing."
arxiv.org
The Super Weight in Large Language Models
Recent works have shown a surprising result: a small fraction of Large Language Model (LLM) parameter outliers are disproportionately important to the quality of the model. LLMs contain billions of pa...
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Benji Blackstone @benjiblackstone.bsky.social · 16/05/2025
Just in time for Friday! I made a Real-Life MULTIPLAYER Lightcycle Simulator www.youtube.com/@BenjiBlackstone #gaming #gamedev Have a beautiful weekend!
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Frogboi 🫒 @frogboi.bsky.social · 09/05/2025
Major Arcana 0 - The Fool
The FoolThe FoolThe FoolThe Fool
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ellie lockhart (she/they) @eleanor.lockhart.contact · 07/05/2025
this is why I say over and over again, it is a generative natural language user interface/query engine, depending on what you use it for *user interface* and *generative* are the things that need to be emphasized to understand what its actual scope are
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Pookleblinky @pookleblinky.bsky.social · 21/04/2024
Fun fact: in moments of extreme danger and fear where "time seems to slow down," your time perception has barely changed. You do *remember* perceiving time as having slowed down. This was tested by making people fall down unexpectedly while answering questions.
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Adam Chess @arsonade.bsky.social · 06/05/2025
Every journalist involved here, both the writer of this article and the Onion article, should be very proud
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jay Dragon 🔜 Metatopia @jdragsky.bsky.social · 01/05/2025
if your combat system is ponderous and dull, your ttrpg is TRAD if your combat system is fast-paced and dull, your ttrpg is OSR if your combat system is fast-paced and inscrutable, your ttrpg is a STORYGAME
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Ontario Drug Policy Research Network @odprn.bsky.social · 23/04/2025
NEW ODPRN study finds that BOTH Safer Opioid Supply (SOS) & methadone improve health outcomes and play important complementary roles in responding to Canada’s drug toxicity crisis. odprn.ca/research/pub... #HarmReduction #SaferSupply
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Scott McGrath @smcgrath.phd · 25/04/2025
🧪 Researchers developed machine learning models using weather data to predict daily stroke admissions, finding factors like air pressure, temperature extremes, and wind correlate with caseload. This approach could aid hospitals in planning for weather-related health events. 🩺💻 #MLSky
nature.com
Machine learning-based forecasting of daily acute ischemic stroke admissions using weather data - npj Digital Medicine
npj Digital Medicine - Machine learning-based forecasting of daily acute ischemic stroke admissions using weather data
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Chancellor! @cdsart.bsky.social · 14/04/2025
Counting Petals
A room decorated in various flower themed decorations of every kind and colorm. including a wall paper, various abstract paintings of flowers on the wall, a side table painted with flowers. On top of the side table is a flower vase, a flower lamp, a rabbit holding a flower ceramic statue, a bird sitting on a flower ceramic statue, a tulip ceramic statue and then another painting of flowers. There is a single window in the room and outside looms a group of barely visible police officers in swat gear staring inside. There is a door to the right almost out of frame. A single dandelion taped across it like a lock.
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Ben Hayden @benhayden.bsky.social · 11/04/2025
New paper from the Neurosurgery Research Team at BCM! "Learning and language in the unconscious human hippocampus" www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1...
biorxiv.org
Learning and language in the unconscious human hippocampus
Consciousness is a fundamental component of cognition, but the degree to which higher-order perception relies on it remains disputed. Here we demonstrate the persistence of learning, semantic processi...
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Joseph O'Sullivan @olympiajoe.bsky.social · 05/04/2025
TRENTON- About 1k people showed today for the 50501 nat’l day of action here at the NJ Capitol. Protesters chanted against Trump & Musk, cuts to education the VA & more. And sang some Woody Guthrie-
Demonstrators gather at the WWII memorial at the New Jersey Capitol in Trenton to protest the Trump administration and Elon Musk.Demonstrators gather at the WWII memorial at the New Jersey Capitol in Trenton to protest the Trump administration and Elon Musk.
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