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Andrew M Leber

@andrewleber.bsky.social
1.8K followers 474 following 1.1K posts

Asst. Prof. of political science, Tulane U MENA politics, some photography, some translation New Orleans, LA ⚜️

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Reposted by Andrew M Leber
Jake Grumbach @jakemgrumbach.bsky.social · 7h
Quick story. My op-ed on how corporations that kept their DEI programs performed just as well financially was accepted & factchecked at TIME Magazine. Just needed "pro forma review by the legal department." Suddenly the piece is spiked Why? Benioff owns TIME and wants to ingratiate himself to Trump
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Andrew M Leber @andrewleber.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
Sorry not on here much. I think Muqaab also abandoned.
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Dana El Kurd @danaelkurd.bsky.social · 01/07/2026
It's out! The full "Handbook on Authoritarianism in the Arab World" is available open access here: www.bloomsburycollections.com/encyclopedia...
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Andrew M Leber @andrewleber.bsky.social · 01/07/2026
Nothing indicates a university's priorities like announcing a massive real estate deal while offering raises that don't keep up with inflation.
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Cool Zone Media @coolzonemedia.bsky.social · 11/06/2026
New It Could Happen Here The Arab Gulf States in the Line of Fire @danaelkurd.bsky.social @andrewleber.bsky.social linktr.ee/ICHHpod
New It Could Happen Here 

The Arab Gulf States in the Line of Fire

@danaelkurd.bsky.social‬ @andrewleber.bsky.social

https://linktr.ee/ICHHpod
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Andrew M Leber @andrewleber.bsky.social · 08/06/2026
Thank you for reading!
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Reposted by Andrew M Leber
Foreign Affairs @foreignaffairs.com · 05/06/2026
Without regional cooperation, the United Arab Emirates “faces a future not of strategic autonomy as it craves but of dependence on political decisions made in the United States and Israel,” writes @andrewleber.bsky.social.
foreignaffairs.com
Can the UAE Go It Alone?
A risky quest for strategic autonomy in a war-torn Middle East.
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Mira Al Hussein @miraalhussein.bsky.social · 05/06/2026
“As the country becomes less attractive to foreign investors and workers, Emirati officials and executives may seek out more extractive economic arrangements in places where the UAE has the leverage to drive a hard bargain, particularly in Africa.” - ✍️ @andrewleber.bsky.social
foreignaffairs.com
Can the UAE Go It Alone?
A risky quest for strategic autonomy in a war-torn Middle East.
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Sam Heller | سام هيلر @abujamajem.com · 05/06/2026
@andrewleber.bsky.social for @foreignaffairs.com on the Emirates' redoubled commitment to its relationships with the United States and Israel, and alienation from its Arab neighbors: www.foreignaffairs.com/united-arab-...
foreignaffairs.com
Can the UAE Go It Alone?
A risky quest for strategic autonomy in a war-torn Middle East.
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Mohamed Dhia Hammami @meddhiah.bsky.social · 29/05/2026
📢 Public good announcement : I’m releasing 3 R packages 📦 with data from the last 2 censuses in Tunisia 🇹🇳, including one with harmonized panel data (I’m using in my dissertation). Available on my GitHub. CRAN version upcoming. www.mohameddhiahammami.com/data
tncensus packagergph2014tn package rgph2024tn package
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Carnegie Endowment @carnegieendowment.org · 08/05/2026
The Saudi monarchy seems to be rolling back – or outright abandoning – some of its most ambitious projects. Unless the state can ease up on repression at home, Vision 2030 risks stalling in the home stretch. @andrewleber.bsky.social explains: carnegieendowment.org/emissary/202...
carnegieendowment.org
The Iran War Isn’t the Only Challenge Facing Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030
As the monarchy appears to question its grandest projects, the state could do with more critical debate than rote cheerleading.
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Andrew M Leber @andrewleber.bsky.social · 05/05/2026
Teaching Comparative Politics next semester with a special week on "it doesn't need to be like this folks"
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Andrew M Leber @andrewleber.bsky.social · 05/05/2026
Twitter's algorithms do terrible things to the mind but Bluesky's have turned it into an irrelevance... much to consider.
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Carnegie Endowment @carnegieendowment.org · 08/04/2026
The ceasefire in Iran appears to be a step forward, but it hasn't brought the war to a close. @andrewleber.bsky.social weighed in.
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David Faris @davidfaris.bsky.social · 07/04/2026
For @thenation.com I look at why the Saudis are telling Trump to escalate from the sidelines, and what it says about the US-led security architecture in the Persian Gulf. With gratitude for insights from @andrewleber.bsky.social and @philbrickyadav.bsky.social. www.thenation.com/article/worl...
thenation.com
How the Saudis Keep Sidestepping a Costly Role in the Iran War
The brutal Gulf monarchy has been cheerleading Trump’s insane war off-stage but won’t commit to any direct role in the conflict
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Authoritarian Political Systems Group @apsgworkshop.bsky.social · 30/03/2026
New publication! @govjournal.bsky.social Many authoritarian regimes seek mass support through policy perf. When do citizens respond? @andrewleber.bsky.social and @draege.bsky.social highlight the role of hist. legacies of development in labor-market views in Saudi Arabia doi.org/10.1111/gove...
doi.org
Evaluating Authoritarian Performance: Historical Legacies and Contemporary Attitudes in Saudi Arabia
Many authoritarian regimes seek mass support through policy performance – delivering material benefits to citizens. When do citizens respond to these appeals? Standard explanations emphasize national...
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Andrew M Leber @andrewleber.bsky.social · 25/03/2026
You can follow the money any way you like, but at the end of the day asking "qui bono?" suggests that MBS not the motive force here.
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Andrew M Leber @andrewleber.bsky.social · 25/03/2026
I've mostly left this site but the idea MBS is pulling the strings here is such an amazingly crackpot theory I had to interject to say as such.
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Andrew M Leber @andrewleber.bsky.social · 25/03/2026
This Israeli government unfortunately not known for prioritizing global conventions over short-term destruction.
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Neil Lewis @neil-lewis.bsky.social · 05/03/2026
FT comments section this morning - saying what everyone else is thinking, right?
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Kelsey Atherton @atherton.bsky.social · 04/03/2026
By a mostly party-line vote of 47 to 53 (Rand a yes, Fetterman a no), the Senate has failed take back authority over war. The mad king keeps getting to do what he wants! Still, this is no 2001 AUMF (98-0 in the Senate) or 2002 Iraq War AUMF (77-23 in the Senate). We're at the low ceiling of the war
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Andrew M Leber @andrewleber.bsky.social · 03/03/2026
"It is against this backdrop that Khamenei’s actions leading up to the American and Israeli strikes on Feb. 28 that cost him his life must be seen." @ericlob.bsky.social theconversation.com/ayatollah-al...
theconversation.com
Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s killing plays into Shiite Islam’s reverence for martyrs, but not for all Iranians
Khamenei was a deeply polarizing figure in Iran – perceived by some as a martyr and others as an oppressor.
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Andrew M Leber @andrewleber.bsky.social · 03/03/2026
Wrote up initial observations on the war & what Pres. Trump called its "biggest surprise"* for @carnegieendowment.org *(it won't surprise you that he shouldn't have been surprised) carnegieendowment.org/emissary/202...
Screenshot that says: Amid the open-ended war that the United States and Israel kicked off this weekend, each of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states has been targeted—and in some cases hit—by Iranian drone and missile strikes. The strikes sparked fires near luxury hotels in Dubai, caused panic at Kuwait’s international airport, and put Saudi Arabia’s largest oil refinery out of commission. In an interview with CNN, President Donald Trump called the attacks on the Gulf “probably the biggest surprise” of the war so far.

It shouldn’t have been surprising. During the Trump administration’s “maximum pressure” campaign against Iran in the president’s first term, the Islamic Republic backed attacks on oil tankers near the Persian Gulf as well as Saudi oil infrastructure, each of which dampened GCC support for overt confrontation of Iran.
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Andrew M Leber @andrewleber.bsky.social · 01/03/2026
And an earlier profile from 2013 www.foreignaffairs.com/guest-pass/r...
foreignaffairs.com
Who Is Ali Khamenei?
Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is not a crazy, irrational, or reckless zealot searching for opportunities for aggression, as this sweeping intellectual profile shows. That means there’s room for the United St...
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Andrew M Leber @andrewleber.bsky.social · 01/03/2026
From Iranian journalist Akbar Ganji last year for @foreignaffairs.com on Khamenei and what comes next (1/2, gift links) www.foreignaffairs.com/guest-pass/r...
foreignaffairs.com
Will Iran’s Next Supreme Leader Be Its Last?
Khamenei’s Succession Dilemma and the Future of the Islamic Republic
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Abu Aardvark @abuaardvark.bsky.social · 27/02/2026
“The MESA/AAUP report documents in vivid detail the cost of both Biden’s and Trump’s weaponization of antidiscrimination law... The immediate victims are pro-Palestinian activists and critics of Israel. The ultimate victims will be everyone.” Important piece by Mohammed Fadel archive.ph/8tbOM
archive.ph
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Andrew M Leber @andrewleber.bsky.social · 24/02/2026
From @financialtimes.com (2/23), Israeli intelligence warning that the United States can only sustain a week of military strikes despite buildup: www.ft.com/content/0408...
ft.com
‘Crisis of his own making’: Donald Trump weighs another war with Iran
The US military build-up was designed to coerce Tehran — but has failed
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Andrew M Leber @andrewleber.bsky.social · 24/02/2026
Similar article today from Barak Ravid/Axios suggesting Caine, Vance, Kushner, Witkoff are main voices of caution. www.axios.com/2026/02/23/i...
axios.com
Trump's top general warns of Iran strike risks
Vice President Vance has also raised concerns internally
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Andrew M Leber @andrewleber.bsky.social · 24/02/2026
NYT (2/23), Gen. Caine warning of "a potentially high risk of American casualties" (per "people briefed on internal administration deliberations"). www.nytimes.com/2026/02/23/u...
nytimes.com
Trump Says Top General Predicts Easy Victory Over Iran; He Says Otherwise in Private
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Andrew M Leber @andrewleber.bsky.social · 24/02/2026
Lindsey Graham frets to Axios/Barak Ravid (2/21) about "voices who counsel against getting entangled" and his sense that "voices opposing entanglement and the risk associated with decisive action are getting louder." www.axios.com/2026/02/22/g...
axios.com
Lindsey Graham frets that Trump's advisers oppose Iran strike
Graham urged Trump to ignore them and pull the trigger.
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Andrew M Leber @andrewleber.bsky.social · 24/02/2026
A surge of recent reporting about internal concerns over U.S. strikes on Iran: From NYT (2/22), per "officials with knowledge of the meeting," Trump's lack of a clear strategy and military officials' concerns about readiness & supplies. www.nytimes.com/2026/02/22/u...
nytimes.com
Trump Says Top General Predicts Easy Victory Over Iran; He Says Otherwise in Private
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Jonas Draege @draege.bsky.social · 23/02/2026
My article with @andrewleber.bsky.social is out now in @govjournal.bsky.social! Evaluating Authoritarian Performance: Historical Legacies and Contemporary Attitudes in Saudi Arabia doi.org/10.1111/gove...
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Andrew M Leber @andrewleber.bsky.social · 22/02/2026
U.S. war on/with Iran looking v likely based on troop positioning, Trump's statements, lack of overlap in bargaining positions, and more. Decision-making is very much down to Trump himself, with his thinking heavily informed by a belief that his Middle East/military "gambles" have paid off before.
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Andrew M Leber @andrewleber.bsky.social · 21/02/2026
In a new article for @govjournal.bsky.social, @draege.bsky.social & I examine labor-market views in Saudi Arabia to argue that "historical legacies of development substantially affect perceptions of regime [policy] performance in the long run." [Open Access] onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/...
onlinelibrary.wiley.com
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Andrew M Leber @andrewleber.bsky.social · 21/02/2026
Worst of both worlds in that case.
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Andrew M Leber @andrewleber.bsky.social · 21/02/2026
The other site is evil but it doesn't turn your brain into mush like this site seems to.
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Andrew M Leber @andrewleber.bsky.social · 20/02/2026
Thread of great coverage of MN
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Andrew M Leber @andrewleber.bsky.social · 19/02/2026
If you are in the DC area and interested in discussing US policy toward Iran (and related concerns) in on off-site/offline capacity DM/reach out!
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Andrew M Leber @andrewleber.bsky.social · 17/02/2026
Laissez les bons temps rouler ⚜️
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Carnegie Endowment @carnegieendowment.org · 10/02/2026
Last week, the UAE hosted talks between Ukraine, Russia, and the United States. It’s the latest example of Gulf monarchies positioning themselves as important venues for diplomacy. But what do they get out of hosting talks like these? @andrewleber.bsky.social explains: youtube.com/shorts/U9qqE...
youtube.com
Why Is the UAE Hosting Ukraine-Russia Talks?
YouTube video by Carnegie Explains
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Andrew M Leber @andrewleber.bsky.social · 30/01/2026
Spoke with @eoinhiggins.bsky.social for @eko.org about what the Clintons (and Tucker Carlson) are doing in Riyadh for a real estate conference: ekonews.substack.com/p/whats-saud...
ekonews.substack.com
What's Saudi Arabia's image rehab all about?
There's a growing divide between "haves" and "have-nots" in the country.
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Andrew M Leber @andrewleber.bsky.social · 24/01/2026
Every Dem who voted for more ICE funding voted for this. Every pundit spinning reasons why ICE can't be abolished condones this. bringmethenews.com/minnesota-ne...
bringmethenews.com
BREAKING: Federal agent shoots man in south Minneapolis
A Bring Me The News reporter was near the scene, and recorded multiple gunshots.
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Andrew M Leber @andrewleber.bsky.social · 18/01/2026
Gosh, the university funded by the Palantir exec turned out to be a right-wing infuence op rather than a paragon of free speech and open inquiry? www.politico.com/news/magazin...
politico.com
They Wanted a University Without Cancel Culture. Then Dissenters Were Ousted.
Inside the civil war at the anti-woke university backed by Bari Weiss.
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Carnegie Endowment @carnegieendowment.org · 07/01/2026
At the end of 2025, tensions between Saudi Arabia and the UAE came to a head over conflict in Yemen. What exactly happened, and what does it mean for Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and the region? @andrewleber.bsky.social explains: youtube.com/shorts/URKId...
youtube.com
Why Did Saudi-UAE Tensions Escalate?
YouTube video by Carnegie Explains
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Andrew M Leber @andrewleber.bsky.social · 04/01/2026
Kevin this is an extremely immature and irresponsible thing to post for anybody, let alone a tenured academic, and further demonstrates how this site rots people's brains in a distinct but very real way.
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Andrew M Leber @andrewleber.bsky.social · 29/12/2025
Gift link for posterity: www.nytimes.com/2025/12/28/w...
nytimes.com
Zero Hour for the Middle East
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Andrew M Leber @andrewleber.bsky.social · 29/12/2025
Fun thing to publish right as we're kicking off the New New New Middle East Cold War
New York Times article that begins:

"From the rubble and the ruin, the torture and the terror, the dust and the debris, something is stirring in the Middle East, a spirit that says no to endless cycles of violence and values a future for the region’s children above past feuds."
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Marc Owen Jones @marcowenjones.bsky.social · 20/12/2025
New Analysis on my Substack: I Detected Over 5,000 Bot-Like Accounts Amplifying UAE-Aligned STC Narratives in Southern Yemen open.substack.com/pub/marcowen...
open.substack.com
Analysis: I Detected Over 5,000 Bot Accounts Amplifying UAE-Aligned STC Narratives on Southern Yemen
A network and anomaly analysis of 56,000 tweets pushing Southern Yemen independence
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Carnegie Endowment @carnegieendowment.org · 19/12/2025
Yemen’s civil war is back in the news. Why? @andrewleber.bsky.social unpacks what’s going on in Yemen (and beyond): youtube.com/shorts/sIQBF...
youtube.com
What's New in Yemen's Civil War?
YouTube video by Carnegie Explains
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Dana El Kurd @danaelkurd.bsky.social · 28/11/2025
Our handbook has a page on the publisher site :) (Available open access! Dont mind the price!) www.bloomsbury.com/us/ib-tauris...
bloomsbury.com
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