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Andrew M Leber

@andrewleber.bsky.social
1.8K followers 474 following 1.1K posts

Asst. Prof. of political science, Tulane U MENA politics, some photography, some translation New Orleans, LA ⚜️

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Reposted by Andrew M Leber
Dana El Kurd @danaelkurd.bsky.social · 01/07/2026
It's out! The full "Handbook on Authoritarianism in the Arab World" is available open access here: www.bloomsburycollections.com/encyclopedia...
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Andrew M Leber @andrewleber.bsky.social · 01/07/2026
Nothing indicates a university's priorities like announcing a massive real estate deal while offering raises that don't keep up with inflation.
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Cool Zone Media @coolzonemedia.bsky.social · 11/06/2026
New It Could Happen Here The Arab Gulf States in the Line of Fire @danaelkurd.bsky.social @andrewleber.bsky.social linktr.ee/ICHHpod
New It Could Happen Here 

The Arab Gulf States in the Line of Fire

@danaelkurd.bsky.social‬ @andrewleber.bsky.social

https://linktr.ee/ICHHpod
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Reposted by Andrew M Leber
Foreign Affairs @foreignaffairs.com · 05/06/2026
Without regional cooperation, the United Arab Emirates “faces a future not of strategic autonomy as it craves but of dependence on political decisions made in the United States and Israel,” writes @andrewleber.bsky.social.
foreignaffairs.com
Can the UAE Go It Alone?
A risky quest for strategic autonomy in a war-torn Middle East.
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Mira Al Hussein @miraalhussein.bsky.social · 05/06/2026
“As the country becomes less attractive to foreign investors and workers, Emirati officials and executives may seek out more extractive economic arrangements in places where the UAE has the leverage to drive a hard bargain, particularly in Africa.” - ✍️ @andrewleber.bsky.social
foreignaffairs.com
Can the UAE Go It Alone?
A risky quest for strategic autonomy in a war-torn Middle East.
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Reposted by Andrew M Leber
Sam Heller | سام هيلر @abujamajem.com · 05/06/2026
@andrewleber.bsky.social for @foreignaffairs.com on the Emirates' redoubled commitment to its relationships with the United States and Israel, and alienation from its Arab neighbors: www.foreignaffairs.com/united-arab-...
foreignaffairs.com
Can the UAE Go It Alone?
A risky quest for strategic autonomy in a war-torn Middle East.
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Mohamed Dhia Hammami @meddhiah.bsky.social · 29/05/2026
📢 Public good announcement : I’m releasing 3 R packages 📦 with data from the last 2 censuses in Tunisia 🇹🇳, including one with harmonized panel data (I’m using in my dissertation). Available on my GitHub. CRAN version upcoming. www.mohameddhiahammami.com/data
tncensus packagergph2014tn package rgph2024tn package
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Carnegie Endowment @carnegieendowment.org · 08/05/2026
The Saudi monarchy seems to be rolling back – or outright abandoning – some of its most ambitious projects. Unless the state can ease up on repression at home, Vision 2030 risks stalling in the home stretch. @andrewleber.bsky.social explains: carnegieendowment.org/emissary/202...
carnegieendowment.org
The Iran War Isn’t the Only Challenge Facing Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030
As the monarchy appears to question its grandest projects, the state could do with more critical debate than rote cheerleading.
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Andrew M Leber @andrewleber.bsky.social · 05/05/2026
Twitter's algorithms do terrible things to the mind but Bluesky's have turned it into an irrelevance... much to consider.
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Carnegie Endowment @carnegieendowment.org · 08/04/2026
The ceasefire in Iran appears to be a step forward, but it hasn't brought the war to a close. @andrewleber.bsky.social weighed in.
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David Faris @davidfaris.bsky.social · 07/04/2026
For @thenation.com I look at why the Saudis are telling Trump to escalate from the sidelines, and what it says about the US-led security architecture in the Persian Gulf. With gratitude for insights from @andrewleber.bsky.social and @philbrickyadav.bsky.social. www.thenation.com/article/worl...
thenation.com
How the Saudis Keep Sidestepping a Costly Role in the Iran War
The brutal Gulf monarchy has been cheerleading Trump’s insane war off-stage but won’t commit to any direct role in the conflict
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Authoritarian Political Systems Group @apsgworkshop.bsky.social · 30/03/2026
New publication! @govjournal.bsky.social Many authoritarian regimes seek mass support through policy perf. When do citizens respond? @andrewleber.bsky.social and @draege.bsky.social highlight the role of hist. legacies of development in labor-market views in Saudi Arabia doi.org/10.1111/gove...
doi.org
Evaluating Authoritarian Performance: Historical Legacies and Contemporary Attitudes in Saudi Arabia
Many authoritarian regimes seek mass support through policy performance – delivering material benefits to citizens. When do citizens respond to these appeals? Standard explanations emphasize national...
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Andrew M Leber @andrewleber.bsky.social · 25/03/2026
I've mostly left this site but the idea MBS is pulling the strings here is such an amazingly crackpot theory I had to interject to say as such.
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Neil Lewis @neil-lewis.bsky.social · 05/03/2026
FT comments section this morning - saying what everyone else is thinking, right?
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Kelsey Atherton @atherton.bsky.social · 04/03/2026
By a mostly party-line vote of 47 to 53 (Rand a yes, Fetterman a no), the Senate has failed take back authority over war. The mad king keeps getting to do what he wants! Still, this is no 2001 AUMF (98-0 in the Senate) or 2002 Iraq War AUMF (77-23 in the Senate). We're at the low ceiling of the war
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Andrew M Leber @andrewleber.bsky.social · 03/03/2026
"It is against this backdrop that Khamenei’s actions leading up to the American and Israeli strikes on Feb. 28 that cost him his life must be seen." @ericlob.bsky.social theconversation.com/ayatollah-al...
theconversation.com
Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s killing plays into Shiite Islam’s reverence for martyrs, but not for all Iranians
Khamenei was a deeply polarizing figure in Iran – perceived by some as a martyr and others as an oppressor.
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Andrew M Leber @andrewleber.bsky.social · 03/03/2026
Wrote up initial observations on the war & what Pres. Trump called its "biggest surprise"* for @carnegieendowment.org *(it won't surprise you that he shouldn't have been surprised) carnegieendowment.org/emissary/202...
Screenshot that says: Amid the open-ended war that the United States and Israel kicked off this weekend, each of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states has been targeted—and in some cases hit—by Iranian drone and missile strikes. The strikes sparked fires near luxury hotels in Dubai, caused panic at Kuwait’s international airport, and put Saudi Arabia’s largest oil refinery out of commission. In an interview with CNN, President Donald Trump called the attacks on the Gulf “probably the biggest surprise” of the war so far.

It shouldn’t have been surprising. During the Trump administration’s “maximum pressure” campaign against Iran in the president’s first term, the Islamic Republic backed attacks on oil tankers near the Persian Gulf as well as Saudi oil infrastructure, each of which dampened GCC support for overt confrontation of Iran.
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Andrew M Leber @andrewleber.bsky.social · 01/03/2026
From Iranian journalist Akbar Ganji last year for @foreignaffairs.com on Khamenei and what comes next (1/2, gift links) www.foreignaffairs.com/guest-pass/r...
foreignaffairs.com
Will Iran’s Next Supreme Leader Be Its Last?
Khamenei’s Succession Dilemma and the Future of the Islamic Republic
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Abu Aardvark @abuaardvark.bsky.social · 27/02/2026
“The MESA/AAUP report documents in vivid detail the cost of both Biden’s and Trump’s weaponization of antidiscrimination law... The immediate victims are pro-Palestinian activists and critics of Israel. The ultimate victims will be everyone.” Important piece by Mohammed Fadel archive.ph/8tbOM
archive.ph
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Andrew M Leber @andrewleber.bsky.social · 24/02/2026
A surge of recent reporting about internal concerns over U.S. strikes on Iran: From NYT (2/22), per "officials with knowledge of the meeting," Trump's lack of a clear strategy and military officials' concerns about readiness & supplies. www.nytimes.com/2026/02/22/u...
nytimes.com
Trump Says Top General Predicts Easy Victory Over Iran; He Says Otherwise in Private
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Jonas Draege @draege.bsky.social · 23/02/2026
My article with @andrewleber.bsky.social is out now in @govjournal.bsky.social! Evaluating Authoritarian Performance: Historical Legacies and Contemporary Attitudes in Saudi Arabia doi.org/10.1111/gove...
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Andrew M Leber @andrewleber.bsky.social · 22/02/2026
U.S. war on/with Iran looking v likely based on troop positioning, Trump's statements, lack of overlap in bargaining positions, and more. Decision-making is very much down to Trump himself, with his thinking heavily informed by a belief that his Middle East/military "gambles" have paid off before.
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Andrew M Leber @andrewleber.bsky.social · 21/02/2026
In a new article for @govjournal.bsky.social, @draege.bsky.social & I examine labor-market views in Saudi Arabia to argue that "historical legacies of development substantially affect perceptions of regime [policy] performance in the long run." [Open Access] onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/...
onlinelibrary.wiley.com
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Andrew M Leber @andrewleber.bsky.social · 21/02/2026
The other site is evil but it doesn't turn your brain into mush like this site seems to.
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Andrew M Leber @andrewleber.bsky.social · 20/02/2026
Thread of great coverage of MN
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Andrew M Leber @andrewleber.bsky.social · 19/02/2026
If you are in the DC area and interested in discussing US policy toward Iran (and related concerns) in on off-site/offline capacity DM/reach out!
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Andrew M Leber @andrewleber.bsky.social · 17/02/2026
Laissez les bons temps rouler ⚜️
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Carnegie Endowment @carnegieendowment.org · 10/02/2026
Last week, the UAE hosted talks between Ukraine, Russia, and the United States. It’s the latest example of Gulf monarchies positioning themselves as important venues for diplomacy. But what do they get out of hosting talks like these? @andrewleber.bsky.social explains: youtube.com/shorts/U9qqE...
youtube.com
Why Is the UAE Hosting Ukraine-Russia Talks?
YouTube video by Carnegie Explains
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Andrew M Leber @andrewleber.bsky.social · 30/01/2026
Spoke with @eoinhiggins.bsky.social for @eko.org about what the Clintons (and Tucker Carlson) are doing in Riyadh for a real estate conference: ekonews.substack.com/p/whats-saud...
ekonews.substack.com
What's Saudi Arabia's image rehab all about?
There's a growing divide between "haves" and "have-nots" in the country.
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Andrew M Leber @andrewleber.bsky.social · 24/01/2026
Every Dem who voted for more ICE funding voted for this. Every pundit spinning reasons why ICE can't be abolished condones this. bringmethenews.com/minnesota-ne...
bringmethenews.com
BREAKING: Federal agent shoots man in south Minneapolis
A Bring Me The News reporter was near the scene, and recorded multiple gunshots.
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Andrew M Leber @andrewleber.bsky.social · 18/01/2026
Gosh, the university funded by the Palantir exec turned out to be a right-wing infuence op rather than a paragon of free speech and open inquiry? www.politico.com/news/magazin...
politico.com
They Wanted a University Without Cancel Culture. Then Dissenters Were Ousted.
Inside the civil war at the anti-woke university backed by Bari Weiss.
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Carnegie Endowment @carnegieendowment.org · 07/01/2026
At the end of 2025, tensions between Saudi Arabia and the UAE came to a head over conflict in Yemen. What exactly happened, and what does it mean for Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and the region? @andrewleber.bsky.social explains: youtube.com/shorts/URKId...
youtube.com
Why Did Saudi-UAE Tensions Escalate?
YouTube video by Carnegie Explains
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Andrew M Leber @andrewleber.bsky.social · 29/12/2025
Fun thing to publish right as we're kicking off the New New New Middle East Cold War
New York Times article that begins:

"From the rubble and the ruin, the torture and the terror, the dust and the debris, something is stirring in the Middle East, a spirit that says no to endless cycles of violence and values a future for the region’s children above past feuds."
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Marc Owen Jones @marcowenjones.bsky.social · 20/12/2025
New Analysis on my Substack: I Detected Over 5,000 Bot-Like Accounts Amplifying UAE-Aligned STC Narratives in Southern Yemen open.substack.com/pub/marcowen...
open.substack.com
Analysis: I Detected Over 5,000 Bot Accounts Amplifying UAE-Aligned STC Narratives on Southern Yemen
A network and anomaly analysis of 56,000 tweets pushing Southern Yemen independence
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Carnegie Endowment @carnegieendowment.org · 19/12/2025
Yemen’s civil war is back in the news. Why? @andrewleber.bsky.social unpacks what’s going on in Yemen (and beyond): youtube.com/shorts/sIQBF...
youtube.com
What's New in Yemen's Civil War?
YouTube video by Carnegie Explains
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Dana El Kurd @danaelkurd.bsky.social · 28/11/2025
Our handbook has a page on the publisher site :) (Available open access! Dont mind the price!) www.bloomsbury.com/us/ib-tauris...
bloomsbury.com
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Andrew M Leber @andrewleber.bsky.social · 21/11/2025
Looking for a short read on your commute home (at the intersection of IR theory and current events)? I wrote on international status and MBS' Washington visit for @carnegieendowment.org
Still, the symbolic value of the visit went beyond burnishing the crown prince’s reputation by signaling the kingdom’s international status: what political scientists define as “collective beliefs about a given state’s ranking [in the world, based] on valued attributes.” Leaders—including in Saudi Arabia—seek out international prestige and recognition not only to boost their own egos, but to cultivate domestic support as well.
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Carnegie Endowment @carnegieendowment.org · 21/11/2025
Saudi Crown Price Mohammed bin Salman’s visit to Washington yielded a few headline-grabbing deals. @andrewleber.bsky.social breaks down what changed – and what didn’t – for the U.S.-Saudi relationship this week: youtube.com/shorts/1pEJB...
youtube.com
Takeaways from MBS's Washington Visit
YouTube video by Carnegie Explains
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The Harvard Crimson @theharvardcrimson.bsky.social · 18/11/2025
Former Harvard President Lawrence H. Summers will step back from all public commitments in an effort “to rebuild trust and repair relationships with the people closest to me,” he wrote in a statement. Crimson News Staff report. www.thecrimson.com/article/2025...
thecrimson.com
Summers To Step Back from Public Commitments Amid Epstein Scandal | News | The Harvard Crimson
Former Harvard President Lawerence H. Summers will step back from all public commitments in an effort “to rebuild trust and repair relationships with the people closest to me,” he wrote in a…
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Marshall Steinbaum @econmarshall.bsky.social · 15/11/2025
The emails have Summers reporting to Epstein about his attempts to date a Harvard economics student & to hit on her during a seminar she was giving.
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Carnegie Endowment @carnegieendowment.org · 31/10/2025
With security cooperation with the U.S. and economic ties with China, do Gulf monarchies get the best of both worlds? @andrewleber.bsky.social explains: China’s manufacturing capacity and high-tech capabilities shape competition in the region. Full article: carnegieendowment.org/research/202...
carnegieendowment.org
Imports and Influence: China’s Growing Economic Presence in the Gulf
The Arab Gulf monarchies offer a window into the policy implications of China’s rising global economic influence, driven by its substantial manufacturing capacity and growing range of high-tech capabi...
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Petter Törnberg @pettertornberg.com · 30/10/2025
Posting is correlated with affective polarization: 😡 The most partisan users — those who love their party and despise the other — are more likely to post about politics 🥊 The result? A loud angry minority dominates online politics, which itself can drive polarization (see doi.org/10.1073/pnas...)
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Authoritarian Political Systems Group @apsgworkshop.bsky.social · 29/10/2025
Join us next week! Tiffany Simon (@harvardkennedy.bsky.social) will present "Happiness as Control: The Political Consequences of Entertainment Policy in Saudi Arabia" and @andrewleber.bsky.social (@tulanepolisci.bsky.social) and @aasiegel.bsky.social (@colorado.edu) will discuss
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Andrew M Leber @andrewleber.bsky.social · 14/10/2025
In case of interest for anybody in the DC area
Progressive Foreign Policy Happy Hour
Friday, Oct. 17
Lyman's Tavern, 3720 14th St NW, Washington, DC
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Carnegie Endowment @carnegieendowment.org · 06/10/2025
Initiatives like the Riyadh Comedy Festival aren’t helping Saudi crown prince Mohammed bin Salman “clean up” his image abroad. But the kingdom’s international reputation isn’t its main priority here. @andrewleber.bsky.social, on @npr.org: www.npr.org/2025/10/04/n...
npr.org
The image Saudi Arabia hopes to achieve beyond the comedy festival
Saudi Arabia is working to reshape its global cultural image, but controversies over several acts in its comedy festival tied to the country's human rights record are underscoring the tension between ...
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Monica Marks @monicamarks.bsky.social · 04/10/2025
Two especially good bits ⬇️ What @andrewleber.bsky.social’s analysis captures, that much discourse around “-washing” events in the Gulf & beyond often neglects, are these domestic drivers. Not everything is done solely, or mainly, for an international gaze. Some risks are taken despite that gaze.
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Dan "Mr. Bones and Me" Greene @dmgreene.bsky.social · 03/10/2025
Dwayne has his job back because we organized for it. We fight or we die. Join AAUP today www.aaup.org/join
aaup.org
Join
Joining the AAUP says that you’re concerned about academic freedom, and about the way that basic freedom protects your teaching and research. Join today.
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Andrew M Leber @andrewleber.bsky.social · 03/10/2025
I looked at the domestic drivers of the Riyadh Comedy Festival for @carnegieendowment.org carnegieendowment.org/emissary/202...
carnegieendowment.org
The Riyadh Comedy Festival Isn’t Trying to Change Your Opinion of Saudi Arabia
The driving forces are domestic.
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Chanda Prescod-Weinstein 🌌 @chanda.blacksky.app · 03/10/2025
🚨🚨 My dear friend and fellow academic, the Palestinian American sociologist @emanabdelhadi.bsky.social has been taken by the Cook County Sheriff near Chicago. They have not mirandized her. Please signal boost. All eyes on Broadview for Eman and the community she was defending 🚨🚨
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Andrew M Leber @andrewleber.bsky.social · 01/10/2025
Speaking tomorrow with Elias Muhanna at Brown University on a panel about Gulf-monarchy "giga-projects," for anybody interested in stopping by. events.brown.edu/middle-east/...
events.brown.edu
Giga-Projects: Envisioned Communities in the Age of Saudi Arabia’s “Vision 2030”
The webinar hosted by Elias Muhanna, director of the Center for Middle East Studies, will be focused on megaprojects like NEOM, the Red Sea Project...
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