iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

Reposted by Anderson Lee

David Woodruff @dmwoodruff.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

NYT clanker Keynes is fun to watch but unconvincing. Keynes thought he had two great insights:(1)declining marginal propensity to consume implies a demand shortfall w/o investment;(2)can't count on investment b/c it's based on vibes and vibes about vibes. This is where he'd have started with AI.

nytimes.com

Opinion | What Would John Maynard Keynes Say About A.I.? The Keynes Bot Told Us. (Gift Article)

Nearly a century ago, Keynes predicted that technology would liberate us from work. To imagine what he would think of artificial intelligence today, a Princeton economist used A.I.

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George Pearkes @peark.es · 30/09/2026

Here’s an extremely brief effort to explain why bond yields going up is actually not bad news.

September 28, 2026
Rates. 10y yields briefly traded above 5.2% today, closing up 7 bps on the session. As shown below, they're the farthest from fair value that they've been in some time based on our qualitative model.
Bespoke 10y Yield Fair Value Model: Past Year
5.25
5.00
— 10y Yield (%)
10y Extreme Cheap
9/22/2026, First Fed
hike
4.75
4.50
10y Moderate
Cheap
4.25
4.00
10y Moderate Rich
3.75
3.50
7/25/2023, Last Fed
hike
9/18/2024, First Fed
12/10/2025, Last Fed
cut
cut
10y Extreme Rich
3.25
%
Our model assumes 2% inflation over the long term plus an inflation risk premium (35 bps, to use explicit TIPS pricing). With those values fixed, below we show the implicit growth (including risk premium around growth) forecast from the market given the consensus range of term premium (after backing out some amount off growth risk premium).
Current pricing assumes trend growth above 2% and rising.
Market-Implied Growth + Growth Risk Premium: 5.25% Is The Promised Land
10y UST Yield

Term Premium

-0.4
-0.2

0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8

1.2
1.4

3.00
1.05
0.85
0.65
0.45
0.25
0.05
-0.15
-0.35
-0.55
-0.75

3.25
1.30
1.10
0.90
0.70
0.50
0.30
0.10
-0.10
-0.30
-0.50

3.50
1.55
1.35
1.15
0.95
0.75
0.55
0.35
0.15
-0.05
-0.25

3.75
1.80
1.60
1.40
1.20
1.00
0.80
0.60
0.40
0.20
0.00

4.00
2.05
1.85
1.65
1.45
1.25
1.05
0.85
0.65
0.45
0.25

4.25
2.30
2.10
1.90
1.70
1.50
1.30
1.10
0.90
0.70
0.50

4.50
2.55
2.35
2.15
1.95
1.75
1.55
1.35
1.15
0.95
0.75

4.75
2.80
2.60
2.40
2.20
2.00
1.80
1.60
1.40
1.20
1.00

5.00
3.05
2.85
2.65
2.45
2.25
2.05
1.85
1.65
1.45
1.25

5.25
3.30
3.10
2.90
2.70
2.50
2.30
2.10
1.90
1.70
1.50

5.50
3.55
3.35
3.15
2.95
2.75
2.55
2.35
2.15
1.95
1.75

5.75
3.80
3.60
3.40
3.20
3.00
2.80
2.60
2.40
2.20
2.00

6.00
4.05
3.85
3.65
3.45
3.25
3.05
2.85
2.65
2.45
2.25
Range of TP Estimates
Note: Assumes 35 bps inflation risk premium, 2% inflation. Term does not include growth or inflation risk premium.

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Reposted by Anderson Lee

Nick Gibbs @nickgibbs.bsky.social · 03/08/2026

Man. Drought likely caused by climate change lowers river levels, forcing closure of nuclear power plants and cutting electricity to car plants making mostly combustion engine cars.

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Anderson Lee @andersonlee.bsky.social · 31/07/2026

"The supply side is currently predominantly structured by the interests, logics, and capacities of private actors, which means that when private capital fails to build, produce, or provide in the ways society needs, there is no one to hold responsible."

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Anderson Lee @andersonlee.bsky.social · 28/07/2026

"The real story is that public financing infrastructure enabled private sector investment. The public sector’s critical role is not as a substitute for markets but as a coordinator of market infrastructure and backstop for financial risk that the private sector can't bear alone."

americanaffairsjournal.org

How Financialization Can Complement Reindustrialization - American Affairs Journal

To harness the urgency for strategic industrial investment into a self-sustaining force, public financing infrastructure must be built that enables deployment of private capital toward strategic objec...

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Reposted by Anderson Lee

Karthik Sankaran @rajakorman.bsky.social · 25/07/2026

US policy in/wrt Brazil: 1. Denying climate change 2. 301 tariffs of 25% citing illegal deforestation (hastens cc). 3. Fretting about gains in BZ ag exports to CN driven by ag expansion thru deforestation. 4. Politically backing BZ’s cc deniers & ag expanders. www.reuters.com/world/americ...

reuters.com

US aimed to send envoys to Brazil to question its electoral system - sources

Brazil has denied visa requests for two Trump administration officials who planned to travel to the country to cast ‌doubt on the integrity of its electoral system, two Brazilian officials with knowle...

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Anderson Lee @andersonlee.bsky.social · 22/05/2026

“These supply chains have momentum as they get going...so as you establish those far downstream component manufacturing, you start to recruit all of the upstream manufacturing... The question now is whether that snowball effect kicked off by the IRA will continue.”

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Reposted by Anderson Lee

Canary Media Inc. @canarymedia.com · 30/04/2026

NEW: U.S. Steel is planning a “direct reduced iron” plant at Big River Steel Works in Arkansas, where it’ll combine with electric arc furnaces to create a model for cleaner steelmaking. www.canarymedia.com/articles/green-…

canarymedia.com

US Steel to build $2B lower-carbon iron plant in Arkansas

The new "direct reduced iron" facility at Big River Steel is part of parent company Nippon Steel’s larger $11 billion investment in U.S. operations.

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Anderson Lee @andersonlee.bsky.social · 28/04/2026

"The petrodollar story gets cause and effect exactly backwards. Oil producers priced barrels and profits in dollars in the 1970s because an infrastructure of global dollar banking, what we now call the eurodollar system, was already in place — not in New York, but in London."

ft.com

There’s no such thing as the petrodollar

War on Iran is changing the currency calculations of Gulf energy exporters. But the dollar’s global role depends on far more than the denomination of a barrel of oil

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Reposted by Anderson Lee

Lenore Palladino @lenorepalladino.bsky.social · 27/04/2026

Leon Black's father was Eli Black, who is the reason why we have the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act b/c of what he did as CEO of United Fruit .. he jumped out of his office window b/c he knew that his bribery of the president of Honduras was about to come out what a family

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Anderson Lee @andersonlee.bsky.social · 10/03/2026

I tried to summarize the BII and BlueOrchard fund capital structure that aims to tap into insurance capital interested in climate EMDEs after Solvency UK was passed www.bii.co.uk/en/news-insi...

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Anderson Lee @andersonlee.bsky.social · 10/03/2026

I’ve never seen so many luxury European cars (especially German) than in Korea (Gangnam). Maybachs, high-end Benz, Porsche, RR and on and on. To the point that now Korea runs a trade deficit with Germany on cars.

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Anderson Lee @andersonlee.bsky.social · 10/03/2026

If I ever became president, I’d replicate the Korean health checkup system. A super-efficient, one-stop facility where people can complete a full battery of health tests quickly, conveniently and at low cost. Preventive diagnosis that is simple, affordable, accessible.

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Anderson Lee @andersonlee.bsky.social · 06/03/2026

Green hydrogen investment of €1bn supported by over €300mn in EU subsidies. But who receives subsidies must use EU-made (or EU FTA) electrolyzer stacks under new Industrial Accelerator Act www.ft.com/content/32cc... www.hydrogeninsight.com/electrolyser...

ft.com

Spain’s Moeve bucks green hydrogen gloom with €1bn project

Group backed by Mubadala and Carlyle to build new plant in Andalusia in boost to beleaguered industry

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Anderson Lee @andersonlee.bsky.social · 17/02/2026

“This is the Epstein class in all its glory. It’s an elite that schemes to remain as unaccountable for sexual crimes as it does for corporate crimes.”

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Anderson Lee @andersonlee.bsky.social · 16/02/2026

“One widely held idea to be dismissed off the bat is that in order to field a currency that acts as a global reserve asset, a country needs to run trade deficits. This is not true.”

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Anderson Lee @andersonlee.bsky.social · 15/02/2026

“Today, New York City’s rental market is defined by two colliding forces: tenants’ need for affordable rents, and landlords’ need to repay their creditors. Only public ownership offers an escape from the mounting pressure.”

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Anderson Lee @andersonlee.bsky.social · 07/02/2026

What is meant by Abundance: YIMBYism + supply focus or a centrist omnicause? (first time I hear about “deportation abundance”) newsletter.mikekonczal.com/p/what-progr... rooseveltinstitute.org/publications...

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Anderson Lee @andersonlee.bsky.social · 07/02/2026

“Back in 2013, Bill Gates remarked that it would take a decade to know whether education technology really worked. More than ten years and hundreds of billions of dollars later, the answer is increasingly clear. ‘Imagine if all that money had gone into teachers instead.’”

economist.com

Ed tech is profitable. It is also mostly useless

Independent research identifies few learning gains

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Anderson Lee @andersonlee.bsky.social · 06/02/2026

"They are channeling an immigration regime instituted in 1924, when strict racial quotas — driven by fears of foreigners and a rise in eugenic thinking — led to a bottoming-out of foreign-born Americans that lasted for decades... protecting a white, Christian character for the country."

nytimes.com

Trump’s Immigration Policy Is 100 Years Old

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Anderson Lee @andersonlee.bsky.social · 06/02/2026

"Shrinking the balance sheet has had only a modest impact on financial conditions because quantitative easing has proven to be not very powerful in providing stimulus to the economy. ... If the Fed were to continue QT it would eventually have two options:" www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...

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Anderson Lee @andersonlee.bsky.social · 27/01/2026

"The answer must be to take away ICE and CBP’s money, headcount, and guns. The only politically sensible way to mount this direct challenge is by dismantling the agencies, rather than accept the premise that we need to streamline them and limit their focus to going after the truly “bad guys.”"

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Anderson Lee @andersonlee.bsky.social · 21/01/2026

Amazing that the first issue for Larry Fink and Ken Griffin is the deficit and governments "spending well beyond their means", the "recklessness" of this current moment in history. Lagarde adds at least some nuance between productive/unproductive deficits. www.weforum.org/meetings/wor...

weforum.org

Decade Déjà Vu: Are the 2020s the New 1920s?

Exploring the 2020s through the lens of the 1920s, this discussion at the World Economic Forum Annual Meeting 2026 considers economic shifts, societal changes, and technological developments shaping t...

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Anderson Lee @andersonlee.bsky.social · 21/01/2026

Signs of times when Davos has panels titled "Governments as Economic Super Actors" and "Hard Choices for Industrial Policy"

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Anderson Lee @andersonlee.bsky.social · 20/01/2026

"At present, Europe has no sovereign digital payment system and its entire architecture depends on US service providers" Roadmap for Euro to become a global reserve currency: - swap lines - own payment system - avoid US stablecoins - true, common safe asset - capital markets integration

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Anderson Lee @andersonlee.bsky.social · 20/01/2026

Dallas Fed: "Employment of unauthorized immigrants has contracted an average 26K/m through July/25, or an annual equivalent decline of 310K. However, if the recent pace of decline continues, these immigration outflows could result in a net loss of 51K/m in 2025, or 612K for the year."

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Anderson Lee @andersonlee.bsky.social · 20/01/2026

Probably this speech from Carney on the end of the "rules based international order" and need for polyalignment will be his most famous and consequential, surpassing the tragedy of the horizon ten years ago. www.youtube.com/watch?v=dE98...

youtube.com

Davos LIVE: Canadian PM Mark Carney speaks at World Economic Forum

YouTube video by Associated Press

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Anderson Lee @andersonlee.bsky.social · 20/01/2026

Trump mafioso tactics on IMO net zero framework: "US officials have written to countries that support the measure and besieged them with phone calls threatening to impose tariffs, withdraw visa rights and take other retaliatory action." www.theguardian.com/environment/...

theguardian.com

Trump threatens vulnerable countries before key shipping emissions vote

American officials have threatened supporters of measure to reduce emissions with tariffs and other retaliatory action

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Reposted by Anderson Lee

Dom White @domw.bsky.social · 16/01/2026

Should we be worried about domestic debt sustainability at all in an economy running a current-account surplus of 5% of GDP?

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Reposted by Anderson Lee

Karthik Sankaran @rajakorman.bsky.social · 19/01/2026

One point re: “where would all that money go” is that some portion could just go to cash in non-$ currencies, which might be a prudent thing to do for non-US (or even US) holders of US equities after the run. There would be FX effects but, e.g., lower EURJPY might be welcome all around?

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Anderson Lee @andersonlee.bsky.social · 19/01/2026

"ICE began this chapter by antagonizing and detaining people whom it alleged were undocumented, but the danger has spread far beyond any single community to anyone—across lines of gender, background, or citizenship status—with the temerity to dissent." www.newyorker.com/news/the-led...

newyorker.com

From Selma to Minneapolis

On M.L.K. Day, the death of Renee Good calls to mind another woman who died protesting for the rights of others.

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New Left EViews @newlefteviews.bsky.social · 17/01/2026

My weekend essay in @unherd.com on why central bank independence is a distraction. The real danger lies not with unelected technocrats but in the aggrandisement of power by authoritarians and the global financial sector—that’s true even for the Fed. unherd.com/2026/01/the-...

unherd.com

The big central banking lie

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Anderson Lee @andersonlee.bsky.social · 15/01/2026

This slide from Rodrik is a good companion to this interesting FT piece on how China surpassed the West's technological and industrial edge on green energy. The other side of the story is how solar and green tech has become cheap (with each country playing its role) www.ft.com/content/3749...

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Anderson Lee @andersonlee.bsky.social · 15/01/2026

This is so true ime. Rare mentions and focus on China: "At development and climate meetings, he said, you can go a long time without hearing anyone acknowledge that China matters vastly more to the climate-change story than anything happening anywhere else, very much including the US."

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Claudia Sahm @claudia-sahm.bsky.social · 13/01/2026

In addition, the outpouring of support for Powell this week often cites his personal virtues and draws on his long-standing bi-partisan relationships in DC ... he's out as Chair in a matter of months. Then what? Everyone is as exposed as Lisa Cook?

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Steve Liesman @steveliesman.bsky.social · 13/01/2026

All of which raises the question of whether a more forceful response to the attack on Cook was warranted.

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Steve Liesman @steveliesman.bsky.social · 13/01/2026

Worth pointing out: while Fed Chair Powell has called the DOJ criminal probe a “pretext” for a president who wants lower rates, he has largely declined to comment on the proceedings against Gov Cook. Many have called her firing similarly pre-textual. His comments on Sunday failed to mention Cook.

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Anderson Lee @andersonlee.bsky.social · 12/01/2026

"suggested the Chair step down [aka give in to intimidation tactics that would end the Fed's independence] to protect the institution’s independence" 🙄

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John Muller @mrjohnmuller.bsky.social · 11/01/2026

The Virgin Democratic Party Establishment Candidate: "ICE isn't coordinating with local police. This is no way to bring down prices!" The Chad Episcopalian Bishop: "I have instructed my priests to prepare for martyrdom."

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Anderson Lee @andersonlee.bsky.social · 10/01/2026

Trump to ConocoPhillips yesterday: "We're not going to look at what people lost in the past because that was their fault. That was a different president. You're gonna make a lot of money, but we're not going to go back. You left a lot of money behind. 12 billion. Well, good write off."

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Reposted by Anderson Lee

Sridhar Ramesh @radishharmers.bsky.social · 07/01/2026

I realize this puts me in oft mocked MMT territory, but it seems to me the value of taxing the rich is not to fund government but to compress the wealth distribution, so as to ensure those up top are not so disproportionately wealthier than others as to be able to exercise vast undemocratic power.

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Anderson Lee @andersonlee.bsky.social · 10/01/2026

"Unconstrained resources have enabled the growth of the far-right enforcement regime; reckoning with its budgetary and institutional foundations will be necessary to stop it."

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Chirag Lala @cthelala.bsky.social · 08/01/2026

There is absolutely no reason for Dems to vote for GOP nominees, to facilitate the smooth operation of Congress, nor to withhold impeachment of the President and his appointees. Do it all.

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Anderson Lee @andersonlee.bsky.social · 06/01/2026

"[Bush] managed to bring the G8 and the community of nations together to do something no one thought possible: to nullify private agreements in an act of internationally sanctioned eminent domain, without compensation or due process — functionally abrogating the enforcement rights of creditors"

ft.com

A four-letter word that spells doom for Venezuela’s creditors

Bondholders could get Bakerised

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Anderson Lee @andersonlee.bsky.social · 05/01/2026

“This episode seems to indicate that the president can do almost anything in the context of foreign policy, and the media will still overwhelmingly adopt language that is flattering and sanitizing to the administration when describing what has unfolded”

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Reposted by Anderson Lee

Naomi Klein @naomiaklein.bsky.social · 04/01/2026

The weak response from Can, EU and UN to Trump's flagrant crimes in Venezuela is striking. It exposes that much of the world has been cowed. Most notable exception: the Latin American left. That is why the Trump Admin has gone to enormous lengths to defeat the left across the continent. 1/3

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Anderson Lee @andersonlee.bsky.social · 04/01/2026

Europe and Canada are often seen as the last bastions of international law and the liberal rules based order, but look at their responses and time and again they offer milquetoast, bootlicking statements that essentially support the moral premise and provide no opposition.

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Reposted by Anderson Lee

Jeremy Wallace @jeremywallace.bsky.social · 03/01/2026

yes, but i don't think that most people know that the 2nd most popular china substack is a senior fellow of these guys.

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Anderson Lee @andersonlee.bsky.social · 02/01/2026

"If I can put capital in an AI data centre in Virginia and get 18 per cent dollar (return), why would I go [invest in climate infrastructure] for 15 per cent rupee IRR?’ No fiduciary, no pension fund, no insurance company is going to put (in) money" indianexpress.com/article/busi...

indianexpress.com

Raising global capital to fund decarbonisation ‘very, very difficult’, says former MoS Jayant Sinha

The comment, by former Minister of State for Finance Jayant Sinha, comes amid the ongoing COP30 meeting in Brazil.

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