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Anders Huitfeldt

@andershuitfeldt.net
1.9K followers 286 following 41 posts

Aspiring rationalist. Medical doctor (PGY 5, addiction medicine). In a past life, I was an epidemiologist. MB BCh BAO (Royal College of Surgeons in Ireland, 2008). ScD (Harvard School of Public Health, 2015).

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Reposted by Anders Huitfeldt
Frank Harrell @f2harrell.bsky.social · 23/08/2026
The gold standard for producing PDF documents (especially books and journal articles) has been LaTeX. @typst.app re-engineered the entire process in an incredibly elegant extensible way. On my MacOS LaTeX (TexLive) takes 9.1GB of disk space. Typst takes 43MB. Not a misprint.
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Anders Huitfeldt @andershuitfeldt.net · 14/03/2026
The Royal Statistical Society discussion meeting for Regression by Composition will be held in London on March 24th. The event will also be livestreamed. Sign up to be among the first to hear about the future of regression modelling at rss.org.uk/training-eve...
rss.org.uk
Discussion Meeting: 'Regression by composition' by Farewell et al. (Online)
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Anders Huitfeldt @andershuitfeldt.net · 09/01/2026
In my view, approximate correctness of the model (in terms of biological plausibility) is lexicographically more important to model choice than tractability of the estimation procedure (provided that researchers honestly discuss how that might affect their inferences)
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Anders Huitfeldt @andershuitfeldt.net · 08/12/2025
You can of course argue that oppressed groups tend to be assigned tougher judges because of discrimination. Then you should not control for judge because it is a mediator. But for conceptual clarity, this is different from your stated reason for not controlling
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Anders Huitfeldt @andershuitfeldt.net · 08/12/2025
I think I disagree with this. Suppose you have sufficient data to control for judge on the individual judge level and the only relevant bias is whether the judges are prejudiced. Then controlling for judge will give you a model that appropriately detects such bias.
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Julia M. Rohrer @dingdingpeng.the100.ci · 19/09/2025
Fun article about “outsider” scientists and their breakthroughs. “Academia filters most funding, publishing, and hiring decisions through senior insiders, which favors ideas within existing paradigms.” worksinprogress.co/issue/why-sc...
worksinprogress.co
Why science needs outsiders - Works in Progress Magazine
Science has forgotten that the greatest breakthroughs often come from outsiders who are able to take a fresh perspective.
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Tim Morris @timpmorris.bsky.social · 09/07/2025
Reckon I can submit this as a figure for a paper?
Goose chase meme. Goose asks "Unbiased for what estimand?" then yells "Unbiased for what!!"
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Tim Morris @timpmorris.bsky.social · 07/07/2025
New post: “Marginal” and “conditional” are relative descriptions of an estimand
Foreground text says “Marginal” and “conditional” are relative descriptions of an estimand
In the background is a smokey mollusc
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Brennan Kahan @brennankahan.bsky.social · 01/07/2025
New paper posted on Arxiv: "When do composite estimands answer non-causal questions?" This can happen more often than you think, and can have a dramatic impact on trial results (e.g. a false-positive rate of almost 90%) arxiv.org/abs/2506.22610 @timpmorris.bsky.social
arxiv.org
When do composite estimands answer non-causal questions?
Under a composite estimand strategy, the occurrence of the intercurrent event is incorporated into the endpoint definition, for instance by assigning a poor outcome value to patients who experience th...
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Anders Huitfeldt @andershuitfeldt.net · 01/03/2025
Suppose someone went to a discussion board whose community values differ more from ours than those of the “red tribe” (e.g islamists, putinists or CCP ideologues). Wouldn’t you think this was a good thing, helping both sides understand better how the others see the world?
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Anders Huitfeldt @andershuitfeldt.net · 01/03/2025
That’s fine. You can stay away from them as much as you want. I just dont get the rationale for shaming people for engaging “the other side” in conversation
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Anders Huitfeldt @andershuitfeldt.net · 01/03/2025
You can be a moral purist all you want, but honestly, what is your end game? Do you expect the “other faction” to just all suddenly come to the realization that you were right all along, and that they were contemptible bigots who had been mislead by disinformation ?
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Anders Huitfeldt @andershuitfeldt.net · 01/03/2025
If we want to find a way to live alongside people who don’t share our values, the first step will be to find a way to communicate across the sociocultural fault line. That requires that we do not wall ourselves into separate corners of the internet
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Anders Huitfeldt @andershuitfeldt.net · 26/02/2025
After two years of trying to avoid this discussion, I just necroed *that thread* on datamethods (discourse.datamethods.org/t/should-one...) in order to share an excellent preprint by philosopher Veli-Pekka Parkkinen (philsci-archive.pitt.edu/24785/1/efme...)
discourse.datamethods.org
Should one derive risk difference from the odds ratio?
I urge all readers of this thread to read the excellent new preprint from philosopher of science Veli-Pekka Parkkinen, “Choice of effect measure, extrapolation, and decision-making in patient care an...
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George Takei @georgetakei.bsky.social · 19/02/2025
I’m George Takei and I approve of this message.
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Anders Huitfeldt @andershuitfeldt.net · 01/02/2025
«The world is what it is; men who are nothing, who allow themselves to become nothing, have no place in it»
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Tim Morris @timpmorris.bsky.social · 03/01/2025
🤢 horrifying piece of work, which we’ll see idiots quoting. For goodness sake @jclinepi.bsky.social
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Ben Golub @bengolub.bsky.social · 24/12/2024
In economics, editors, referees, and authors often behave as if a published paper should reflect some kind of authoritative consensus. As a result, valuable debate happens in secret, and the resulting paper is an opaque compromise with anonymous co-authors called referees. 1/
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Jeremy Labrecque @jeremylabrecque.bsky.social · 10/12/2024
People say estimating a causal effect sets the bar unattainably high. But estimating an association is a bar that is literally so low that you can't go under it. Better to aim for what you want and fall short than to, in Homer Simpson's words, "aim so low, no one will even care if you succeed."
media.tenor.com
a cartoon of homer simpson and marge simpson with the words you tried your best
Alt: a cartoon of homer simpson and marge simpson with the words you tried your best and you failed miserably, the lesson is never try.
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Anders Huitfeldt @andershuitfeldt.net · 10/12/2024
While most of the alternatives to democracy have been tried, there are many alternatives to the publishing system that have not been tried and may be superior.
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Anders Huitfeldt @andershuitfeldt.net · 10/12/2024
I was not trying to make a point about inexact wording, and I apologize if that is how it came across. My point was that there may exist better systems for evaluating science that have not been tried.
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Anders Huitfeldt @andershuitfeldt.net · 10/12/2024
I believe the quote was "all the others that have been tried". The system was well suited for an era when the limiting factor was the cost of printing and distributing paper journals. When distribution of information is essentially free, other systems may work better for identifying scientific value
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Brad Heath @bradheath.bsky.social · 10/12/2024
The Justice Department has filed a lawsuit against approximately two dogs.
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Anders Huitfeldt @andershuitfeldt.net · 10/12/2024
Unpopular opinion: Blinded peer review was a mistake. If someone is able to block my paper based on their midwit opinions, they should at the very least be forced to put their name on the review, and publicly stake their reputation on the (false) claim that my work is flawed.
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Harald Bækkelund @araldob.bsky.social · 06/12/2024
Same. Have no desire to speak ill of the dead, but I wished they had left this sentence out of the obituary: "He will be remembered for his remarkable contributions to the psychology world and as a defender of expression without undue fear of reprisal." Simply not true.
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Anders Huitfeldt @andershuitfeldt.net · 05/12/2024
The data used for this map seems off. Having worked in hospitals in both countries, I refuse to believe that the death rate in Norway is double the rate in Ireland
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Tim Morris @timpmorris.bsky.social · 04/12/2024
Can anyone point me to a convincing intro to / explanation of ‘in silico’ trials? Everything I’ve read & heard about them just makes the writer/presenter sound nuts. What am I missing??
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MwahahahahahadScientist @mads100tist.bsky.social · 14/11/2024
The Onion should buy Elsevier next
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Anders Huitfeldt @andershuitfeldt.net · 11/11/2024
I like this taxonomy, but the examples given are not convincing. Most missingness is dependent on unseen data, so I understand that it is difficult to find good examples, but they could have tried to find some plausible random missingness mechanism for illustration
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Tim Feeney @tfeend.bsky.social · 15/10/2024
Gotta be honest here, Rhian is one of my favorite authors. I always enjoy her papers so much. I’m currently reading her paper on collapsibility and I feel like this one will be a natural follow up.
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Darren Dahly @statsepi.bsky.social · 03/10/2024
One for @andershuitfeldt.bsky.social (icymi) www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles...
ncbi.nlm.nih.gov
The averted infections ratio: a novel measure of effectiveness of experimental HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis agents
There is clear evidence that tenofovir disoproxil fumarate combined with emtricitabine (TDF-FTC) is a highly efficacious oral pre-exposure prophylaxis agent for preventing the acquisition of HIV. This...
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Anders Huitfeldt @andershuitfeldt.net · 18/09/2024
At the moment it is not publicly available. A new, substantially rewritten version will be made available in the not too distant future
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Anders Huitfeldt @andershuitfeldt.net · 18/09/2024
This new paper with Rhian Daniel and Daniel Farewell is an excellent opportunity to revive the classic discussions about odds ratios vs other measures of the effect academic.oup.com/jrsssa/artic... #episky #statssky #statistics
academic.oup.com
‘Does God toss logistic coins?’ and other questions that motivate regression by composition
Abstract. Regression by composition is a new and flexible toolkit for building and understanding statistical models. Focusing here on regression models for
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Jack Wilkinson @jdwilko.bsky.social · 05/09/2024
What is common knowledge in your field, but shocks outsiders? Most published medical research is essentially junk, and most health professionals aren’t sufficiently trained to tell the difference.
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Will Lowe @conjugateprior.org · 16/06/2024
Unwisely concluding that X causes Y because Y tends to follow X needs a better name than this. I suggest: Granger Danger
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Miguel Hernan @miguelhernan.org · 18/05/2024
With #TargetTrial emulation becoming increasingly popular, it's important to understand what it can and can't do. In this podcast I discuss how target trial emulation can improve causal inference from observational data and extend inferences from randomized trials edhub.ama-assn.org/jn-learning/...
edhub.ama-assn.org
Target Trial Emulation for Causal Inference From Observational Data With Dr Hernán
Miguel A. Hernán, MD, DrPH, professor of epidemiology, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, discusses Target Trial Emulation: A Framework for Causal Inference From Observational Data with JAMA Statistical Editor Roger J. Lewis, MD, PhD.
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Anders Huitfeldt @andershuitfeldt.net · 14/05/2024
Test based confidence intervals are known to be invalid when they use the variance under the null. They were historically used for Mantel Haenzel analyses. This was the motivation for Robins, Breslow and Greenlands work to derive a valid variance estimator (pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/3741973/)
pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov
Estimators of the Mantel-Haenszel variance consistent in both sparse data and large-strata limiting models - PubMed
This paper proposes a new estimator of the variance of the Mantel-Haenszel estimator of common odds ratio that is easily computed and consistent in both sparse data and large-strata limiting models. M...
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Anders Huitfeldt @andershuitfeldt.net · 29/03/2024
The figure is misleading because it suggests that with sufficient causal logic you can always reason from first principles and identify the causal effect given observed data. This is false
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Anders Huitfeldt @andershuitfeldt.net · 29/03/2024
Correlation plus logic alone is insufficient. You also need assumptions about the data generating mechanism, ie the premises that you apply causal logic to. Those assumptions are the real scientific contribution of casual inference - much more so than tools for reasoning about their implications
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Tim Morris @timpmorris.bsky.social · 28/03/2024
New post in which I advocate for signing your peer reviews. As always, I’m curious to hear your thoughts. open.substack.com/pub/tpmorris...
Image of the post title ‘The principle of signing your peer review’ with a background of me standing on a branch of a big turkey oak (you’ll have to read the post to get it).
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Anders Huitfeldt @andershuitfeldt.net · 06/03/2024
My attempts to convince epidemiologists and biostatisticians about the switch relative risk
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Tim Morris @timpmorris.bsky.social · 08/02/2024
‘Estimands: addressing some recent objections’ Just posted this one. As ever, very diplomatic! open.substack.com/pub/tpmorris...
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Anders Huitfeldt @andershuitfeldt.net · 03/02/2024
I think it is related to this: slatestarcodex.com/2014/04/22/r... . You can only get away with the track suit if nobody would confuse you for a skanger
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Anders Huitfeldt @andershuitfeldt.net · 02/02/2024
What makes his writing for Quillette “bad”? Ask yourself if there is any way he could have made the same arguments without you concluding that it is “bad”. If not, perhaps it is not the quality of his writing that you object to?
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Anders Huitfeldt @andershuitfeldt.net · 02/02/2024
This kind of sneering negativity, which arises any time the media gives any attention at all to anyone who dares question the social justice narrative, is unbecoming and leads to increased polarization.
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Marc Veldhoen @marcveld.bsky.social · 30/01/2024
Making every researcher seek grants is a broken model Funding should go to larger labs with many researchers, not to “principal investigators” rootsofprogress.org/... 1/3
rootsofprogress.org
Making every researcher seek grants is a broken model
Funding should go to larger labs with many researchers, not to “principal investigators”
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Anders Huitfeldt @andershuitfeldt.net · 25/01/2024
No university can expect to have the trust of the population if it systematically excludes people for having values that are not only central to our social contract , but also deeply and sincerely held by the median member of society
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Anders Huitfeldt @andershuitfeldt.net · 25/01/2024
Your accusation of racism is unfounded and libellous, and suggests either bad faith or complete absence of any attempt to understand the psychology and motivations of those who do not share your values
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Anders Huitfeldt @andershuitfeldt.net · 25/01/2024
No it is not. It is about desperately wanting to stand up for meritocracy, objectivity, the value free ideal, the presumption of innocence and civil discourse, without being hounded out of academia by rabid social justice activists.
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Tim Morris @timpmorris.bsky.social · 23/01/2024
Ooh what’s *this* on the BMJ’s front page? ‘The estimands framework: a primer on the ICH E9(R1) addendum’ Kahan, Hindley, Edwards, Cro & Morris @brennankahan.bsky.social www.bmj.com/content/384/...
bmj.com
The estimands framework: a primer on the ICH E9(R1) addendum
Estimands can be used in studies of healthcare interventions to clarify the interpretation of treatment effects. The addendum to the ICH E9 harmonised guideline on statistical principles for clinical ...
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