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Alpesh Paleja

@alpeshpaleja.bsky.social
46 followers 74 following 64 posts

Deputy Chief Economist at the CBI. All views my own. 🌈

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Alpesh Paleja @alpeshpaleja.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
As the Labour Party Conference kicks off, a timely reminder that business' view of the near-term outlook remains weak: with activity still hit by uneven demand conditions, and the legacy of cumulative cost pressures around employment, energy and regulation. See below for more 👇
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Alpesh Paleja @alpeshpaleja.bsky.social · 04/09/2026
The @bankofengland.bsky.social's latest DMP survey doesn't show any pick up in business' price and wage inflation expectations, which will reassure those on the MPC concerned about second-round inflationary impact from higher global energy prices... www.bankofengland.co.uk/decision-mak...
bankofengland.co.uk
Monthly Decision Maker Panel data - August 2026
The Decision Maker Panel (DMP) is a survey of Chief Financial Officers from small, medium and large UK businesses. We use it to monitor developments in the economy and to track businesses’ views.
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CBI Economics @cbieconomics.bsky.social · 06/08/2026
New Economy in Brief 📢 CBI Deputy Chief Economist @alpeshpaleja.bsky.social looks at Andy Burnham’s first few weeks as Prime Minister against a backdrop of continued volatility in global geopolitics and energy prices. Read more🔒 www.cbi.org.uk/articles/eco...
cbi.org.uk
Economy in brief: August 2026 | CBI
Your monthly overview of the major trends impacting the UK’s main business sectors, from the CBI's Deputy Chief Economist Alpesh Paleja.
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Alpesh Paleja @alpeshpaleja.bsky.social · 31/07/2026
John Healey's first Budget confirmed for 28 October: www.gov.uk/government/n...
gov.uk
Budget to move “power and money out of Westminster, and into every postcode around Britain”.
Today (Friday 31 July), the Chancellor has confirmed that the date of the Budget will be Wednesday 28 October.
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Alpesh Paleja @alpeshpaleja.bsky.social · 09/06/2026
As a result of conflict in the Middle East - and its impact on energy prices - we now expect weaker growth and higher inflation, prolonging the tepid economic fundamentals seen over the last couple of years. So that's nice. See below for more details on our latest forecast 🔽
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CBI Economics @cbieconomics.bsky.social · 07/05/2026
UK CPI rose to 3.3% in March as higher oil prices begin to feed through. CBI survey data signals further price pressures ahead. In May’s Economy in Brief, @alpeshpaleja.bsky.social explores how the MPC is responding to the renewed inflationary outlook. Read more🔒 www.cbi.org.uk/articles/eco...
cbi.org.uk
Economy in brief: May 2026 | CBI
Your monthly overview of the major trends impacting the UK’s main business sectors.
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CBI Economics @cbieconomics.bsky.social · 02/04/2026
Just in time for Easter: our latest note examines what different scenarios for conflict in the Middle East could mean for the UK economic outlook 👇 www.cbi.org.uk/articles/ira...
cbi.org.uk
Iran conflict shifts the UK’s economic outlook | CBI
We examine the ongoing impact of the conflict in the Middle East.
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CBI Economics @cbieconomics.bsky.social · 31/03/2026
How are higher and more volatile energy prices likely to shape the UK’s inflation and monetary policy outlook? Deputy Chief Economist @alpeshpaleja.bsky.social explores this in April’s Economy in Brief. Read more🔒: www.cbi.org.uk/articles/eco...
cbi.org.uk
Economy in brief: April 2026 | CBI
Your monthly overview of the major trends impacting the UK’s main business sectors.
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CBI Economics @cbieconomics.bsky.social · 16/03/2026
Less “Back to the Future,” more backing our future 🚀 The headlines are full of comparisons to the 1973 oil crisis. But as our CEO, Rain Newton-Smith, writes in @thetimes.com today, the reality for UK business is much more complex. Full story 👇 t.co/blVTtSiLsW
t.co
https://www.thetimes.com/business/economics/article/britain-already-had-sky-high-energy-costs-before-iran-war-7w25lg6nf
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Alpesh Paleja @alpeshpaleja.bsky.social · 16/03/2026
While seemingly parochial compared to everything else going on in the world atm, annual changes to the UK CPI basket are always a good insight into evolving consumer trends. New additions in 2026 include croissants, houmous and non-alcoholic beer🔽 www.ons.gov.uk/economy/infl...
ons.gov.uk
Consumer price inflation basket of goods and services - Office for National Statistics
The “shopping baskets” of items used in compiling measures of UK consumer price inflation.
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Alpesh Paleja @alpeshpaleja.bsky.social · 12/03/2026
Great piece from @theifs.bsky.social on the potential fiscal impact of higher energy prices, and what any government support to households could (and should) look like: ifs.org.uk/articles/wha...
ifs.org.uk
What does the war in the Middle East mean for energy prices, and how could the government respond? | Institute for Fiscal Studies
Conflict in the Middle East has pushed up energy prices. We examine how this compares to past shocks and the government's options going forward.
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CBI Economics @cbieconomics.bsky.social · 11/03/2026
Energy price volatility has intensified amid rapidly evolving developments in the Middle East, injecting fresh uncertainty into financial markets. March's Economy in Brief looks at the implications for the UK economy under two broad scenarios. Read more 🔒 www.cbi.org.uk/articles/eco...
cbi.org.uk
Economy in brief: March 2026 | CBI
Your monthly overview of the major trends impacting the UK’s main business sectors.
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CBI Economics @cbieconomics.bsky.social · 03/03/2026
We’ve examined the initial economic impact of the conflict in the Middle East, assessing key macro risks, market reactions and the implications for British businesses. How could this affect UK inflation, growth and interest rates? Read our latest note 👇 www.cbi.org.uk/articles/tru...
cbi.org.uk
Trump’s Middle East gamble: macro impacts | CBI
We examine the initial economic impact of the conflict in the Middle East.
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CBI Economics @cbieconomics.bsky.social · 03/02/2026
Successive geopolitical shocks dominated the start of 2026. In the latest CBI Economy in Brief, @alpeshpaleja.bsky.social unpacks market reactions, what global volatility means for the UK, and a pulse check on the UK growth story. 🔒 www.cbi.org.uk/articles/eco...
cbi.org.uk
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Alpesh Paleja @alpeshpaleja.bsky.social · 15/01/2026
A little skeptical about some of the more positive commentary on the 0.3% rise in GDP over November. Around half was driven by a rebound in car production, following the cyber attack on JLR... (1/3)
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Alpesh Paleja @alpeshpaleja.bsky.social · 22/12/2025
Spring Statement will take place on 3rd March 2026. I've never known a UK fiscal event to not be on a Wednesday... www.gov.uk/government/n...
gov.uk
Chancellor announces date of Spring Forecast
The Chancellor has asked the Office for Budget Responsibility to prepare forecast for 3 March 2026
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Alpesh Paleja @alpeshpaleja.bsky.social · 22/12/2025
It's been a tough year for businesses. Continued uncertainty, growing cost pressures, and cautious spending behaviour have been persistent headwinds to growth. Check out the main messages from our final set of business surveys for 2025 👇:
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CBI Economics @cbieconomics.bsky.social · 18/12/2025
“Today’s rate cut came as no surprise… But the Committee remains deeply divided on the degree of inflation persistence in the economy, as the narrow vote showed” Check out @alpeshpaleja.bsky.social's response to the announcement 👇 www.cbi.org.uk/media-centre...
cbi.org.uk
CBI responds to latest Bank of England decision on interest rates | CBI
CBI responds to latest Bank of England decision on interest rates
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Alpesh Paleja @alpeshpaleja.bsky.social · 17/12/2025
The uptick in manufacturers' price expectations in our latest survey is notable, and chimes with other indicators of pipeline price pressures edging up (incl. input price inflation in Nov) Time will tell whether this is signal or noise, but one to bear in mind ahead of tomorrow's (likely) rate cut
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CBI Economics @cbieconomics.bsky.social · 02/12/2025
📉 PRIVATE SECTOR DOWNTURN SET TO ACCELERATE TO FEBRUARY 2026 Firms expect activity to fall again over the next three months, extending a period of weakness that began in late 2024. Growth expectations worsened a little further, in large part driven by pre-Budget uncertainty.
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CBI Economics @cbieconomics.bsky.social · 04/12/2025
Following Budget jitters that left businesses in a state of suspension, @alpeshpaleja.bsky.social unpacks in our extended Economy in Brief: · Key takeaways from the OBR forecast · The Budget’s implications for the economic outlook and monetary policy Read more🔒: www.cbi.org.uk/articles/eco...
cbi.org.uk
Economy in brief: November 2025 | CBI
Your monthly overview of the major trends impacting the UK’s main business sectors.
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Alpesh Paleja @alpeshpaleja.bsky.social · 06/11/2025
That was a pretty dovish hold by the Monetary Policy Committee, with Andrew Bailey (the deciding vote) particularly more sanguine on upside inflation risks. December rate cut definitely back on the table. www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-pol...
bankofengland.co.uk
Bank Rate maintained at 4% - November 2025 Monetary Policy Summary and Minutes
Find out more about the Monetary Policy Committee’s latest decision
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CBI Economics @cbieconomics.bsky.social · 06/11/2025
Some good news for the UK economy: inflation has likely peaked and the labour market shows signs of stabilising. In our latest Economy in Brief, @alpeshpaleja.bsky.social explores what this means for monetary policy and the wider economic outlook. Read more🔒: www.cbi.org.uk/articles/eco...
cbi.org.uk
Economy in brief: October 2025 | CBI
Your monthly overview of the major trends impacting the UK’s main business sectors.
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Alpesh Paleja @alpeshpaleja.bsky.social · 04/11/2025
Thrilled to join the first episode of The CBI Exchange - our brand new podcast! Tune in as we unpack the state of the economy ahead of the Budget, speculate on what we might expect from the Chancellor, and outline what business needs to thrive audioboom.com/posts/880055...
audioboom.com
The CBI Exchange: The Budget Briefing
Join us for a seat at the table with the people shaping the UK economy - from business leaders and economists to the policymakers behind the headlines.
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CBI Economics @cbieconomics.bsky.social · 29/10/2025
📉 PRIVATE SECTOR DOWNTURN SET TO PERSIST INTO 2026 Firms once again expect activity to fall over the next three months, with weakness across the board mirroring subdued GDP growth.
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CBI Economics @cbieconomics.bsky.social · 23/10/2025
The latest CBI Industrial Trends Survey found that output volumes fell in the quarter to October, at a similar pace to the quarter to September. Firms expect volumes to fall again in the three months to January.
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Alpesh Paleja @alpeshpaleja.bsky.social · 20/10/2025
Really pleased to be able to host Jon Hall of the Bank of England's FPC this week, for his upcoming speech on the balance between financial stability and long-term economic growth. Link to register below 👇
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CBI Economics @cbieconomics.bsky.social · 30/09/2025
With weak underlying economic momentum and sticky #inflation, the #MPC is set to tread cautiously. In our September’s Economy in Brief, @alpeshpaleja.bsky.social explores the Bank Rate decision, UK outlook and jittery bond markets. Read more🔒: www.cbi.org.uk/articles/eco...
cbi.org.uk
Economy in brief: September 2025 | CBI
Your monthly overview of the major trends impacting the UK’s main business sectors.
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Alpesh Paleja @alpeshpaleja.bsky.social · 12/09/2025
A little overshadowed by the GDP data this morning, but worth noting that households' inflation expectations have crept up again in the latest BoE Inflation Attitudes Survey. Hhs now expect the CPI rate to be 3.4% in two years time, the highest such expectation since end-2022
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CBI Economics @cbieconomics.bsky.social · 05/09/2025
The last week saw a rise in bond yields across advanced economies, reflecting concern in markets about the state of public finances across the G7 Why did yields spike, and why have they remained higher in the UK than elsewhere? Check out our latest note: www.cbi.org.uk/articles/unp...
cbi.org.uk
Unpacking recent moves in global bond markets | CBI
Bond yields surged across major economies, with Japan’s 30-year hitting a record and UK gilts peaking at 5.75%—the highest since 1998. Turbulence continues.
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Kien Tan @kientan74.bsky.social · 05/09/2025
📈 I've been critical of the ONS in the past, but this is a refreshingly honest account of how they've started to fix issues with retail sales in the past few weeks. Let's hope they can adopt this approach across other published statistics: blog.ons.gov.uk/2025/09/05/c...
blog.ons.gov.uk
Correcting the record on retail sales, improving quality across economic statistics
Under new senior leadership the ONS is urgently focusing its resources on core economic statistics as part of a wider strategic recovery plan. In this post, incoming Director General for economic soci
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CBI Economics @cbieconomics.bsky.social · 02/09/2025
Sticky inflation vs a cooling labour market — a tough trade-off for the MPC. In our latest Economy in Brief, @alpeshpaleja.bsky.social unpacks: · Why the MPC is so divided · Mixed signals on UK growth · What’s next for private sector activity Read more: www.cbi.org.uk/articles/eco...
cbi.org.uk
Economy in brief: August 2025 | CBI
Your monthly guide to the UK economy, giving you a monthly overview of the major trends impacting the UK's main business sectors.
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Economics Observatory @econ-observatory.bsky.social · 27/08/2025
This week is the #NobelPrize meeting 🎓 Since the Economics prize was introduced in 1969, over half of all laureates have been US–born. Last year’s laureates: Daron Acemoglu 🇹🇷, James Robinson 🇺🇸🇬🇧 & Simon Johnson 🇬🇧, won for their research on institutions, growth & inequality. #ChartOfTheDay
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Alpesh Paleja @alpeshpaleja.bsky.social · 26/08/2025
A characteristically hawkish speech from Catherine Mann, mostly focusing on the dangers of inflation persistence. But she leaves the door open to voting for "forceful policy action" if downside risks to growth materialise: www.bankofengland.co.uk/speech/2025/...
bankofengland.co.uk
Five ‘C’s for Central Bank Research − speech by Catherine L. Mann
Given at The Future of Central Banking conference on the occasion of the 100th Anniversary, Banco de México
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Alpesh Paleja @alpeshpaleja.bsky.social · 21/08/2025
Our latest #manufacturing survey continues to paint an un-pretty picture of activity, chiming with the weakness in this morning's flash manufacturing PMI. More below 👇
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Alpesh Paleja @alpeshpaleja.bsky.social · 20/08/2025
To note that the ONS' 2025 Blue Book GDP estimates show a much stronger picture for business investment, largely due to higher R&D spending Capex now estimated to have consistently recovered its COVID decline in Q3 2021 - two years earlier than in the current vintage of data
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Harvir Dhillon @harvirdhillon.bsky.social · 19/08/2025
Slightly worrying that the publication of the ONS' retail sales statistics has been delayed with such little notice.
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CBI Economics @cbieconomics.bsky.social · 31/07/2025
Weak growth, stubborn inflation The Bank of England faces a tough trade-off, with cautious rate cuts amid a loosening jobs market. Wage pressures are easing slowly, but risks remain. This month's Economy in Brief from @alpeshpaleja.bsky.social breaks it down: t.co/0RouuL0j4W 🔒
t.co
https://www.cbi.org.uk/articles/economy-in-brief-july-2025/
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Alpesh Paleja @alpeshpaleja.bsky.social · 05/08/2025
Good chart from Deutsche Bank, showing just how long the BoE's latest easing cycle has been. Assuming a few more rate cuts, it's set to be the longest in post-war history.
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CBI Economics @cbieconomics.bsky.social · 30/07/2025
Today marks a milestone! 🎉 The CBI is proud to celebrate 60 years of championing business growth, driving change, and influencing policy. Find out more about becoming a member: orlo.uk/Lu9zw Here’s to the next 60 years! 💼 #CBI60 #VoiceOfBusiness #BusinessGrowth
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Alpesh Paleja @alpeshpaleja.bsky.social · 30/07/2025
Growth momentum remained weak going into Q3, according to our latest surveys. Continued headwinds from higher employment costs, energy prices and global volatility. Businesses cite a growing focus on managing costs and streamlining processes Read our full take below 👇
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Alpesh Paleja @alpeshpaleja.bsky.social · 25/07/2025
Little movement in the UK GfK consumer #confidence index this month, BUT - the "now is a good time to save index" jumped by 7 points, to its highest since late 2007. Further illustrates continued caution among households, and focus on rebuilding finances after a tough few years.
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Alpesh Paleja @alpeshpaleja.bsky.social · 24/07/2025
"Economics today resembles Catholic theology in medieval Europe: a rigid doctrine guarded by a modern priesthood who claim to possess the sole truth" Great piece by Ha-Joon Chang, referencing the ongoing work of @rethinkecon.bsky.social www.ft.com/content/9aab...
ft.com
Economics teaching has become the Aeroflot of ideas
The discipline is failing students by ignoring the biggest social, political and ecological challenges facing the world today
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CBI Economics @cbieconomics.bsky.social · 24/07/2025
The latest CBI Industrial Trends Survey found that output volumes were broadly unchanged in the quarter to July. Firms expect volumes to fall slightly in the three months to October. #ITS
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Alpesh Paleja @alpeshpaleja.bsky.social · 22/07/2025
Great chart from Deutsche Bank, showing just how divided the Bank of England's MPC are at the moment. And split views seem to be picking up, as the labour market loosens. Though divisions within the Committee aren't necessarily a bad thing, of course.
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Alpesh Paleja @alpeshpaleja.bsky.social · 02/07/2025
London waking up this morning #heatwave2025
media.tenor.com
a woman is standing in the rain with her head in her hands .
ALT: a woman is standing in the rain with her head in her hands .
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Economics Observatory @econ-observatory.bsky.social · 01/07/2025
How much does the UK spend on welfare? 🇪🇺 Relatively little compared to Europe: just 10.8% of GDP in 2023 (including sickness & disability benefits, pensions, etc.). Meanwhile, 🇫🇮Finland spends 25.7% of GDP & 🇫🇷France 23.8%. #ChartOfTheDay #Welfare
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Alpesh Paleja @alpeshpaleja.bsky.social · 01/07/2025
Business surveys - including our own - were always pointing to weaker momentum than official data over Q1. This looks to have continued over Q2 and, taken at face value, suggests that we'll see a sharp slowdown in GDP growth. More below 👇
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CBI Economics @cbieconomics.bsky.social · 24/06/2025
The latest CBI Industrial Trends Survey found that #manufacturing output volumes fell in the three months to June, at a similarly steep pace to the three months to May. Looking ahead, firms anticipate that the pace of decline will slow over the next three months
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Alpesh Paleja @alpeshpaleja.bsky.social · 20/06/2025
Great chart from Goldman Sachs showing the key markets for Iran's oil exports. This is one reason why a full-blown closure of the Strait of Hormuz is a low-likelihood scenario: Iran wouldn't want to impact its top customer (i.e. China) #IranIsraelConflict
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