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Harvir Dhillon

@harvirdhillon.bsky.social
337 followers 137 following 641 posts

Lead Economist at ‪the British Retail Consortium‬ 🛍️ UK macro, retail and #costofliving 📈👨🏽‍💻🇬🇧 Opinions my own etc Formerly Experian Leicestershire, United Kingdom 🦊

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Harvir Dhillon @harvirdhillon.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
Full report available here:
brc.org.uk
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Harvir Dhillon @harvirdhillon.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
🛍️ Shop price inflation steps back in September 🧵 The latest @britishretail.bsky.social - NIQ Shop Price Monitor shows headline inflation easing to 1.4% (from 1.5%), above the 3-month average of 1.3%. Prices rose just 0.1% on the month as retailers leant on promotions. 📊
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Harvir Dhillon @harvirdhillon.bsky.social · 18/09/2026
Decent UK retail sales growth figures, with a 0.5% rise in volumes. Stellar performance in June has lifted the three-month view. But you can however note that the divergence between food and non-food persists, despite strong growth in alcohol sales.
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Harvir Dhillon @harvirdhillon.bsky.social · 05/09/2026
Mentioned in this article on the AI boom pushing up the price of consumer electronics: “I think we’re still in the sort of early stages [of price increases],” said Dhillon, adding that “there’s a lot more to come in the pipeline”.
ft.com
‘RAMageddon’ hits consumer electronics as AI drains chip supply
Prices for phones, laptops and gaming consoles already up and retailers forecasting further increases
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Harvir Dhillon @harvirdhillon.bsky.social · 01/09/2026
Spoke with LBC News earlier this morning to discuss our latest shop price figures. Food and non-food both drove the increase, and primarily due to the AI boom, electronics inflation is now at record-levels, set to rise even further.
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Harvir Dhillon @harvirdhillon.bsky.social · 27/08/2026
Looks like GTA stuck with a lot of the mechanics in RDR2. Visuals look stunning
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Harvir Dhillon @harvirdhillon.bsky.social · 21/08/2026
Slight pullback in sales on the month, in July. Although over the quarter, compared to a year ago, sales are up 4.1%. This is the fastest rate of growth since the UK came out of the final Covid lockdown.
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Harvir Dhillon @harvirdhillon.bsky.social · 19/08/2026
CPI remains far more subdued than would have been expected a number of months ago. The Ofgem price cap being lifted means a slight uptick to 2.9% is not surprising. Services inflation continues to ease, but remains elevated, and goods inflation is ticking up slightly.
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Harvir Dhillon @harvirdhillon.bsky.social · 24/07/2026
British shoppers are proving to be remarkably resilient. Retail sales are now 4.2% higher than a year ago. The heatwave forced a lot of purchases, and discretionary spending isn't so discretionary when it comes to feeling cooler.
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Harvir Dhillon @harvirdhillon.bsky.social · 22/07/2026
Notable reduction in the CPI, led by declines in prices at the pump, as well as a fall in food prices on the month, as supermarkets cut prices. Worth saying that the Ofgem price cap was lifted this month, to be reflected in August's figures. Will see inflation head a bit higher, above 3% likely.
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Harvir Dhillon @harvirdhillon.bsky.social · 21/07/2026
A chart that says a lot about the plight of young people seeking work:
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Harvir Dhillon @harvirdhillon.bsky.social · 18/07/2026
Where was this England in the semis? Pressure off ofc, but this is a B+ team up against a solid France team.
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Harvir Dhillon @harvirdhillon.bsky.social · 14/07/2026
The full Retail Sales Monitor, with the detailed category breakdown, is here ⤵️
brc.org.uk
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Harvir Dhillon @harvirdhillon.bsky.social · 14/07/2026
📉 The sun stayed out. The shoppers didn't The latest @britishretail.bsky.social - @kpmguk.bsky.social Retail Sales Monitor shows total sales up 1.9% year-on- in June, a clear slowing from May's 3.7% as record temperatures kept shoppers indoors.
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Harvir Dhillon @harvirdhillon.bsky.social · 30/06/2026
🛍️ Shop prices hold firm in June The latest @britishretail.bsky.social - NIQ Shop Price Monitor shows headline inflation unchanged at 1.2%, slightly above the 3-month average of 1.1%. Prices rose for a second straight month, but a competitive market is keeping a lid on things. 📊
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Harvir Dhillon @harvirdhillon.bsky.social · 29/06/2026
There’s only one correct choice in the Midlands 😏🦊
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Harvir Dhillon @harvirdhillon.bsky.social · 19/06/2026
💷 What's quite reassuring is that the consumer has broadly held up since the end of February. Yes the energy inflation dampened sentiment a lot, but it hasn't caused a big pullback in demand. And with more hot weather on the way, we may see more resilience over June/July.
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Harvir Dhillon @harvirdhillon.bsky.social · 19/06/2026
💷 What's quite reassuring is that the consumer has broadly held up since the end of February. Yes the energy inflation dampened sentiment a lot, but it hasn't caused a big pullback in demand. And with more hot weather on the way, we may see more resilience over June/July.
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Harvir Dhillon @harvirdhillon.bsky.social · 19/06/2026
Good set of UK retail sales figures, chiming with the BRC's that were published earlier this month. Divergence between values and volumes, however, is widening.
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Harvir Dhillon @harvirdhillon.bsky.social · 17/06/2026
Food inflation at 2.2% marks it being its lowest since the Autumn 2024 budget. Inflation remaining steady means UK currently has very similar inflation to both France and Germany.
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Harvir Dhillon @harvirdhillon.bsky.social · 16/06/2026
Outlook for inflation is rosier now (although still pain ahead), absent a breakdown in the ceasefire. Oil has remained a lot more subdued than expected. Diesel set to drop below £1.70 a litre.
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Harvir Dhillon @harvirdhillon.bsky.social · 09/06/2026
The full Retail Sales Monitor, with the detailed category breakdown, is here ⤵️
brc.org.uk
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Harvir Dhillon @harvirdhillon.bsky.social · 09/06/2026
☀️ The heatwave gave UK retail a lift in May The latest @britishretail.bsky.social - @kpmguk.bsky.social Retail Sales Monitor shows total sales up 3.7% year-on-year (3.4% LFL), a clear rebound, though much of the swing reflects how distorted the spring comparisons had become. 📈
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Reuters @reuters.com · 26/05/2026
UK shop price inflation picks up, retailers ask government to help reut.rs/4dLaRZw
reut.rs
UK shop price inflation picks up, retailers ask government to help
British shop price inflation sped up in May on the back of disruption and ​higher energy costs caused by the Iran ‌war, according to a retail industry group which said the government had to do more to keep costs ​down.
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Harvir Dhillon @harvirdhillon.bsky.social · 22/05/2026
Updated retail sales growth rankings. Textiles top, audio, video and music at the bottom.
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Harvir Dhillon @harvirdhillon.bsky.social · 20/05/2026
Notable easing in inflation, to the extent that the UK no longer has higher inflation than Germany. Transport is doing heavy-lifting in both directions: the price of fuel and the price of air fares, comparing a non-Easter week with an Easter week the year prior.
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Harvir Dhillon @harvirdhillon.bsky.social · 19/05/2026
~5% headline inflation looking more likely by year-end
reuters.com
Britain's energy price cap to rise 13% in July, Cornwall Insight says
Britain's domestic energy price cap is forecast to rise by around 13% in July from current levels, analysts ​at Cornwall Insight said on Tuesday,
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Harvir Dhillon @harvirdhillon.bsky.social · 05/05/2026
I've been developing a local data tracker of retail metrics, spanning GVA, pay/earnings, business count, employment as well as business rates. You can view and export data, with data available down to the parliamentary constituency level: brc.org.uk/market-intel...
brc.org.uk
Local Data Tracker
There is a raft of official statistics covering the retail industry at a local level. You can conveniently explore the data using the interactive visualisations below and export the data.
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Harvir Dhillon @harvirdhillon.bsky.social · 05/05/2026
Not a big fan of these three Bank of England scenarios. Seems to have meant less detail in terms of which metrics are being forecasted. February projections Databank: 44 tabs April projections Databank: 15 tabs
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Harvir Dhillon @harvirdhillon.bsky.social · 05/05/2026
I've been developing a local data tracker of retail metrics, spanning GVA, pay/earnings, business count, employment as well as business rates. You can view and export data, with data available down to the parliamentary constituency level: brc.org.uk/market-intel...
brc.org.uk
Local Data Tracker
There is a raft of official statistics covering the retail industry at a local level. You can conveniently explore the data using the interactive visualisations below and export the data.
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Harvir Dhillon @harvirdhillon.bsky.social · 03/05/2026
Come on United. Revenge for 7-0 needed
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Harvir Dhillon @harvirdhillon.bsky.social · 30/04/2026
BoE think we'll have food inflation at 4.6% by September. I think it could be 2 percentage points higher than that.
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Harvir Dhillon @harvirdhillon.bsky.social · 24/04/2026
Volumes are now their highest since April 2022. But it's non-food that is driving this as food volumes remain 6.4% below pre-pandemic levels and non-food 1.3% above.
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Harvir Dhillon @harvirdhillon.bsky.social · 24/04/2026
Good set of retail sales figures, with both sales values and volumes on the up. However there's still a trend of food volumes being depressed and non-food doing well despite the cautious consumer.
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Harvir Dhillon @harvirdhillon.bsky.social · 22/04/2026
Uptick in UK inflation to 3.3% mainly due to the rise in fuel prices. Still a fair bit of inflation to makes its way through into the figures, however: “The average price [of petrol] stood at 140.2 pence per litre in March 2026”
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Harvir Dhillon @harvirdhillon.bsky.social · 19/04/2026
Hmm. Seems de-escalatory
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Harvir Dhillon @harvirdhillon.bsky.social · 16/04/2026
Harry Maguire would like to have a word
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Harvir Dhillon @harvirdhillon.bsky.social · 15/04/2026
Won't they be persistent - In terms of the price level? Sure inflation should ease once this is all over, but the near-term step-change, as a result, is going to happen, irrespective of what happens to fuel prices.
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Harvir Dhillon @harvirdhillon.bsky.social · 12/04/2026
I bet it still hallucinates 🥲
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Jonathan Portes @jdportes.bsky.social · 12/04/2026
Also true in the UK. Obviously there's a lot going on underneath this (pensioners vs working age, renters vs owner occupiers, increased severe deprivation, differential inflation) but most/"average" households have seen real income growth (and inequality has not increased).
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Ólafur Waage @olafurw.com · 06/04/2026
Artemis II today.
scene from lord of the rings
"this is it, if I take one more step it'll be the farthest away from home I've ever been"
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Harvir Dhillon @harvirdhillon.bsky.social · 07/04/2026
Not a great time to have a diesel. Thankfully I don’t drive all too frequently
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Harvir Dhillon @harvirdhillon.bsky.social · 31/03/2026
Appeared on LBC News earlier to discuss the latest Shop Price Monitor figures published this morning:
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Harvir Dhillon @harvirdhillon.bsky.social · 27/03/2026
Retail sales volumes are up 0.7% on the quarter, but did step back by 0.4% on the month. January's growth was revised up to 2%, from 1.8%. Food volumes remain depressed, however.
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Harvir Dhillon @harvirdhillon.bsky.social · 25/03/2026
The calm before the storm... inflation settles at 3.0%. Biggest upward contributions came from clothing and footwear, plus furniture and household goods. Biggest downward came from alcohol and tobacco, transport as well as food.
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Harvir Dhillon @harvirdhillon.bsky.social · 11/03/2026
Because of ME tensions, I ended up flying back to the UK through NZ (nice two day stopover!) before another flight to Houston and then finally back to Heathrow 🇬🇧
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Harvir Dhillon @harvirdhillon.bsky.social · 11/03/2026
Perth dump
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Harvir Dhillon @harvirdhillon.bsky.social · 04/03/2026
Gosh getting back to the UK is not going to be easy 😭
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Harvir Dhillon @harvirdhillon.bsky.social · 01/03/2026
Sydney dump - next stop Perth 🇦🇺
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Harvir Dhillon @harvirdhillon.bsky.social · 01/02/2026
I made it through Dry Jan. Time for a cold 🍺
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