iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

Alex Clegg @alexclegg.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

In that case it would just rise in line with earnings

Alex Clegg @alexclegg.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

But it is much cheaper than the triple lock because the value falls back to its proportion of average earnings over time, rather than permanently ratcheting up.

041

Alex Clegg @alexclegg.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

This makes it more expensive in the short/medium term than a straight earnings link, or a 'smoothed' earnings link that works like the new policy without the 2.5% part - a 2.5% rise takes longer to unwind if we assume inflation at 2%.

111

Alex Clegg @alexclegg.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

This is still considerably more generous than non-pensioner benefit uprating. We've said that non-pensioner benefits should track earnings, and that the government should raise IT and cut NI by the same amount, to remove some of the imbalance in taxation of pensioner and non-pensioner incomes.

120

Alex Clegg @alexclegg.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

This makes it usually more expensive in the short/medium term than either a straight earnings link or a 'smoothed' earnings link (i.e. the new policy with the 2.5% bit removed) as, if we assume CPI of 2%, the 2.5% rise takes longer to unwind. But cheaper than the current triple lock.

000

Alex Clegg @alexclegg.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

Basically, the State Pension will rise by the highest of 2.5%, inflation, or what it needs to to maintain its proportion of average earnings from the start date.

101

Alex Clegg @alexclegg.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

Our report from June explains how the replacement for the triple lock will work (we called it a 'smoothed' triple lock). It's a much better policy than the current triple lock - State Pension is protected from inflation spikes and tracks earnings long term, but the expensive ratchet is removed.

63018

Alex Clegg @alexclegg.bsky.social · 19/09/2026

Really important analysis from Stephen finding 90% of the 2024 Local Housing Allowance increase remained with tenants rather than passing through to landlords. The idea that an increase would drive up rents has been a key sticking point in the government ending the freeze.

000

Reposted by Alex Clegg

Julia Diniz @juliadelldiniz.bsky.social · 15/09/2026

New labour market statistics out this morning – and this month's data include the pay growth figure that will feed into the next 'triple lock' uprating of the State Pension. Mine and @hannahslaughter.bsky.social's @resolutionfoundation.org response thread:

125

Reposted by Alex Clegg

Jamie Titus-Glover @jamietg.bsky.social · 28/06/2026

Excited to talk about the research I supported during my time at @resolutionfoundation.org! The paper focus ed on what is happening to incomes of under 30's compared to previous cohorts. The news is mixed. Here's a🧵with the key insights. www.resolutionfoundation.org/publications...

resolutionfoundation.org

They’re coming home • Resolution Foundation

Given Britain’s resurgent ‘NEET’ problem, a rise of living with parents, and intensified political debate on the prospects of young people, this briefing note provides an assessment of the living stan...

155

Reposted by Alex Clegg

Louise Murphy @louisemurphy.bsky.social · 16/06/2026

4 million people in England and Wales now receive PIP. As the Timms Review gets underway, here are five things today's new DWP data tells us about the benefit 🧵

254

Reposted by Alex Clegg

Ruth Curtice @ruthcurtice.bsky.social · 12/06/2026

As debates rage about where to get the money for higher defence spending, it’s important we have a clear picture of how we spent the peace dividend while it was around. Thread 🧵⤵️

13299158

Alex Clegg @alexclegg.bsky.social · 10/06/2026

A key task for the Pensions Commission should be to say what the right State Pension level is in relation to earnings and set out how to end the triple lock once that's reached. Our view is that we're there already. New spotlight out this morning, and see Ruth's thread for a summary.

021

Alex Clegg @alexclegg.bsky.social · 02/06/2026

But overall an impressively comprehensive report that does a good job of diagnosing the range of factors driving the NEET rate rise

000

Alex Clegg @alexclegg.bsky.social · 02/06/2026

On the benefits side, the framing of spending on income support or employment support as zero-sum is also a little worrying, easy to see this leading to calls to cut health related benefit spending to fund employment programmes, which could be very damaging to young vulnerable people

240

Alex Clegg @alexclegg.bsky.social · 02/06/2026

Some thoughts on the interim Milburn report. Overall it's encouraging to see how well it recognises the drivers of the NEETs crisis, but the overarching focus on work risks obscuring vocational education in particular as a key pathway out of NEET status

183

Alex Clegg @alexclegg.bsky.social · 17/05/2026

Agree there are progressive cases for welfare reform, but they shouldn't start by repeating the myth that current spending is unaffordable or out of control

0389

Alex Clegg @alexclegg.bsky.social · 17/05/2026

People often don't understand that stable social security spending as a % of GDP will generally mean rising spending in real price terms, and that should be expected if we're not to have ever widening inequality between the poorest and the middle

1261

Reposted by Alex Clegg

Resolution Foundation @resolutionfoundation.org · 14/05/2026

📢 New Resolution Foundation analysis published today 📢 Living standards for lower-income households were especially hard hit in the last few years. Read 'See it. Say it. Sort it.' here, to learn how to reset Britain’s economic policy ⤵️ buff.ly/EIq0o5n

01512

Alex Clegg @alexclegg.bsky.social · 28/04/2026

As our report (and Nye's thread) makes clear, the shape of the benefit system is unlikely to be the main driver of the rising NEET rate. But the current system isn't doing enough to support young people into employment or education.

100

Alex Clegg @alexclegg.bsky.social · 28/04/2026

This could involve periodic check-ins for those furthest from work; skills and confidence-building for those with improving health; intensive job search support for those nearly ready. And returning to education should be a viable route too.

100

Alex Clegg @alexclegg.bsky.social · 28/04/2026

That means all but the most severely unwell UCH claimants under 25 should have some requirement to engage with DWP. But crucially, this must come with real support - a dedicated work coach for every claimant, with a tailored plan.

100

Alex Clegg @alexclegg.bsky.social · 28/04/2026

The UK's system is increasingly all-or-nothing. Jobseekers face an intensive 'work-first' regime, while UCH recipients increasingly have no engagement at all. We propose collapsing that distinction into a single system of engagement and support for all under-25s on UC.

100

Alex Clegg @alexclegg.bsky.social · 28/04/2026

So what should change? In low-NEET countries like Germany, Denmark and the Netherlands, young people on incapacity benefits are still expected to engage - with training, rehabilitation, or subsidised work. "No engagement" is a last resort rather than the default

110

Alex Clegg @alexclegg.bsky.social · 28/04/2026

The result of the rising incapacity caseload and the rising proportion being placed in the most severe group is an increasing proportion of young benefit recipients having no requirements to engage with DWP. This group has grown from 160,000 in 2019 to 300,000 today

100

Alex Clegg @alexclegg.bsky.social · 28/04/2026

If DWP returned to its 2017 to 2020 average of reassessing around 3,100 under-25s per month (the highest point observed to date), we estimate that around an additional 2,800 of the 200,000 young UCH recipients would flow out of the group each year due to being found ‘fit for work’.

100

Alex Clegg @alexclegg.bsky.social · 28/04/2026

The monthly rate of WCA reassessments among under-25s fell dramatically from 3.8% in early-2020 to 0.2% in the latest data. This reflects a backlog of all assessments following their pause during Covid, combined with a sharp rise in claims that led DWP to prioritise initial over repeat assessments

100

Alex Clegg @alexclegg.bsky.social · 28/04/2026

And while flows of young people onto incapacity benefits have been high, a near collapse in reassessments since the pandemic means there is no clear mechanism for them to flow off if their conditions improve

100

Alex Clegg @alexclegg.bsky.social · 28/04/2026

Second, it has been suggested that the removal of the mid-level LCW element from 2017 may have lead assessors to award LCWRA status instead of LCW (although we find little evidence of this happening in practice)

100

Alex Clegg @alexclegg.bsky.social · 28/04/2026

First, cumulative case law decisions establishing when there is 'substantial risk' for a claimant to undertake work-related activity may have expanded the number of claims that are likely to be found to have limited work capability, and may have helped to give clarity to assessors

100

Alex Clegg @alexclegg.bsky.social · 28/04/2026

This clearly has implications for both rising benefit spending and a rising proportion of benefit recipients who have no requirement to engage with DWP. The simplest explanation is that health conditions have become more severe. But again, there could be some other explanations...

100

Alex Clegg @alexclegg.bsky.social · 28/04/2026

These three factors may plausibly be driving up the number of young people claiming incapacity benefits over time. But alongside the rising caseload, there has also been a rise in the proportion of claimants placed in the most severe incapacity group (LCWRA) following an initial WCA

100

Alex Clegg @alexclegg.bsky.social · 28/04/2026

And there is evidence that work coaches sometimes feel that full enforcement of UC’s conditionality requirements is inappropriate for certain recipients. In such cases they may refer people to a WCA in order to help them dial-down conditionality.

100

Alex Clegg @alexclegg.bsky.social · 28/04/2026

Third, UC's more extensive and intensive conditionality rules compared with legacy benefits may have increased the incentive for some claimants to apply for incapacity benefits (which have no requirements for the highest group).

100

Alex Clegg @alexclegg.bsky.social · 28/04/2026

Second, the low value of unemployment benefits may be incentivising more incapacity benefit claims. For u25s, basic UC is worth £78pw, compared to £177pw on UC Health. This was a key reason for why the Government cut the UCH element for new claimants to £50/week from April this year

100

Alex Clegg @alexclegg.bsky.social · 28/04/2026

Under JSA, people who fell ill for less than 13 weeks could stay on that benefit with work search requirements suspended until their health improved. Under UC, periods of sickness can last no more than 14 days, and people ill for 29 days+ may be referred for a WCA and therefore flow onto UC Health

100

Alex Clegg @alexclegg.bsky.social · 28/04/2026

First, the interaction between conditionality rules and ill health in Universal Credit may be routing people towards incapacity benefits who previously would have stayed on unemployment benefits.

100

Alex Clegg @alexclegg.bsky.social · 28/04/2026

It's also possible that aspects of the benefit system have partly driven rising inactivity and/or worsening health. We explore a few candidates in the report.

200

Alex Clegg @alexclegg.bsky.social · 28/04/2026

bsky.app/profile/nyec... Picking up on the benefits story, as Nye says, the simplest explanation is that deteriorating health among young people has led to more becoming economically inactive, which has led to an increase in the incapacity benefits caseload. But is that the full story?

100

Alex Clegg @alexclegg.bsky.social · 28/04/2026

See Nye's thorough thread on our NEETs report out today

100

Reposted by Alex Clegg

Resolution Foundation @resolutionfoundation.org · 13/04/2026

🚨 New Substack: Higher energy prices could leave typical British households £480 worse off this year @mikebrewerecon.bsky.social and the RF team unpack what higher bills mean for living standards ⤵️

buff.ly

Higher energy prices could leave typical British households £480 worse off this year

Mike Brewer and the RF team unpack what the current conflict in the Middle East means for living standards

055

Alex Clegg @alexclegg.bsky.social · 04/04/2026

Yes removing the 2 child limit will have a big impact on poverty in 2026-27. We won't get the official numbers for this year until 2028, but we can project them (see here: bsky.app/profile/alex...). Data revisions can shift the line a bit but a policy as big as the 2cl removal guarantees a big fall

032

Reposted by Alex Clegg

Lalitha Try @lalithatry.bsky.social · 02/04/2026

Happy new tax year to all who celebrate! Here's a quick 🧵on the tax and benefit changes coming in this month in the context of rising energy bills. www.resolutionfoundation.org/publications...

resolutionfoundation.org

Happy new tax year 2026 • Resolution Foundation

The start of April marks the beginning of the new tax year, meaning households will face a wide range of tax, benefit and utility bill changes. Benefit changes in April will boost incomes for the poor...

175

Alex Clegg @alexclegg.bsky.social · 28/03/2026

Hi Steve, I shouldn't think so. DWP has been using benefit admin data combined with modelled entitlement for a while to calculate take up (for PC/HB, they haven't yet published UC take up figures)

010

Alex Clegg @alexclegg.bsky.social · 27/03/2026

Better data is welcome, but it's no cause for complacency. Poverty remains high, measurement is not yet complete, and urgency must not slip. Repealing the two-child limit is the right next step. Read more here: www.resolutionfoundation.org/comment/a-cl...

resolutionfoundation.org

A clearer picture of household incomes – but no cause for complacency on poverty • Resolution Foundation

The Department for Work and Pensions has published its latest release of Households Below Average Income (HBAI), its flagship data source on household incomes and poverty. This release provides outtur...

130

Alex Clegg @alexclegg.bsky.social · 27/03/2026

As well as under-reported benefit income from families in the survey, the current sample undercounts benefit-claiming families relative to the population. Plans to improve weighting to match benefit caseload could mean more families below the poverty line are counted next year.

121

Alex Clegg @alexclegg.bsky.social · 27/03/2026

And importantly, weighting improvements due next year could mean poverty rates are revised back up:

110