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Antoine de Cabanes

@adecabanes.bsky.social
634 followers 424 following 235 posts

PhD student in Political Science at UCLouvain (ISPOLE) Political Economy, Monetary Policy, Central Banks (ECB & Federal Reserve // monetary politics, accountability, expertise) uclouvain.academia.edu/AntoinedeCab…

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Antoine de Cabanes @adecabanes.bsky.social · 12/10/2026
J'ai eu le plaisir d'intervenir ce matin dans @culturesmonde.bsky.social pour répondre aux questions de @juliegacon.bsky.social sur les tentatives de #Trump pour placer la Réserve fédérale sous son contrôle, ainsi que ses conséquences sur le dollar et son statut de monnaie de réserve
radiofrance.fr
Le dollar, victime de la guerre entre Trump et la FED ? : épisode du podcast Monnaies, monnaies, monnaies | France Culture
AUDIO Monnaies, monnaies, monnaies, épisode : Le dollar, victime de la guerre entre Trump et la FED ?. Une série inédite proposée par France Culture. Écoutez Le dollar, victime de la guerre entre Tru...
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Aurélien Goutsmedt @aurelien-goutsmedt.com · 12/10/2026
I've tried my hand at @graze.social for building feeds. I've created a "Central Bank Watch" feed: bsky.app/profile/aure... It appears that's a good day to promote it with Hall and Woodford's Nobel Prize.
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Cultures Monde @culturesmonde.bsky.social · 12/10/2026
Entre crises des dettes, guerres commerciales et lutte pour s’imposer comme la valeur refuge mondiale, les monnaies constituent un enjeu de souveraineté, mais aussi un terrain d’affrontement géopolitique. 1ᵉʳ épisode – Le dollar, victime de la guerre entre Trump et la FED ? 🎧 @franceculture.fr
radiofrance.fr
Le dollar, victime de la guerre entre Trump et la FED ? : épisode du podcast Monnaies, monnaies, monnaies | France Culture
AUDIO Monnaies, monnaies, monnaies, épisode : Le dollar, victime de la guerre entre Trump et la FED ?. Une série inédite proposée par France Culture. Écoutez Le dollar, victime de la guerre entre Tru...
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Antoine de Cabanes @adecabanes.bsky.social · 09/10/2026
Given that this mechanism played a crucial part in the Eurozone crisis (cf paper), it is a safe bet that, at some point, the #ECB will intervene to cap the yields on 🇨🇵 sovereign bonds and thus prevent the current turmoil to turn into a systemic €A crisis. 2/2 onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10....
onlinelibrary.wiley.com
Banking on Bonds: The New Links Between States and Markets<link href='#jcms12309-note-0001'></link>
This article examines a neglected structural transformation in European finance: the growing importance of government debt as collateral for Europe's repo markets, where banks borrow cash against col...
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Antoine de Cabanes @adecabanes.bsky.social · 09/10/2026
Key thing to have in mind here is the inverse relationship between bonds' prices & yields => when the yield on 🇨🇵 sovereign bonds increases, the prices of these bonds decrease => borrowers using French sovies as collateral in repo transactions face margin calls => destabilisation of 🇪🇺 repo market 1/2
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Jens van 't Klooster 💸💸💸 @jvtk.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
Finally out, with @shahinvallee.bsky.social our ambitious story for European Macro Policy Network (EMPN) on the future of the global euro empn.eu/publication/...
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Antoine de Cabanes @adecabanes.bsky.social · 18/09/2026
Je suis revenu pour la @rtbf.be sur les conséquences de l'augmentation des taux directeurs décidée par la Federal Reserve ce mercredi. Étant donné que Trump exige de la #Fed une baisse des taux à 1%, cette décision laisse imho présager une reprise des hostilités entre la Maison Blanche et la Fed.
rtbf.be
Pourquoi la Réserve fédérale américaine relève ses taux et tient tête à Donald Trump ? - RTBF Actus
Kevin Warsh, le nouveau dirigeant de la Réserve fédérale américaine, est apparu sûr de lui en conférence de presse....
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Jens van 't Klooster 💸💸💸 @jvtk.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
Couldnt be more timely! In @jeppjournal.bsky.social (open access), a detailed post mortem of the 2022 inflation shock, and suggestions how to do better this time.
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Isabella M. Weber @isabellamweber.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
Just in time for the latest oil price spike, we published our article urging the ECB not to hike rates to fight a supply shock. Europe needs a new inflation governance for shockflation. We need disaster preparedness for essentials instead of increasing investment costs.
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Antoine de Cabanes @adecabanes.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
I can't help but relish the biting irony of these remarks by the Greek Finance Minister : it is surely no coincidence that his choice of words mirrors the statements made by Merkel and Schäuble during the Greek crisis of 2009–2015 on the vital need to implement ‘painful reforms’ #€ASchadenfreude
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Antoine de Cabanes @adecabanes.bsky.social · 04/09/2026
I wonder how long Warsh will manage to persuade Trump that it is solely because of the other FOMC members that the Fed does not cut interest rates, and that it has nothing to do with his own hawkish stance. But, given Trump's post, I bet that Warsh will soon get a nickname #toolate
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Antoine de Cabanes @adecabanes.bsky.social · 27/08/2026
When interests conflict with ideology: Austria and Finland are members of the 'frugal' group, their governements advocate fiscal austerity at the national and EU level, while their levels of indebtedness (public debt to gdp) are similar to the ones of the countries of the Eurozone southern periphery
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Antoine de Cabanes @adecabanes.bsky.social · 10/08/2026
The 🇪🇺 Commission estimates the annual economic gain of the 12 omnibus packages at €18 billion. According to the EC, cutting red tape and dismantling the Green Deal was supposed to improve competitiveness & boost growth. Even from a purely accounting point of view, the result is an utmost disaster.
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Antoine de Cabanes @adecabanes.bsky.social · 28/07/2026
How do you say "douzièmes provisoires" in German ? 😆 www.politico.eu/article/merz...
politico.eu
Germany’s Merz says EU budget needs cut of ‘several hundred billion’ euros
Chancellor also argues it is “unacceptable” for European institutions to add 2,500 new jobs.
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Antoine de Cabanes @adecabanes.bsky.social · 26/07/2026
Elon Musk est nazi, épisode 3974
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Daniela Gabor @danielagabor.bsky.social · 24/07/2026
Telling everyone this is the book for our times. Hope in corporate dystopias and the ashes of derisking states.
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Antoine de Cabanes @adecabanes.bsky.social · 24/07/2026
Great news ! The @ecb.europa.eu decided to extend the greening of its collateral framework to credit claims. This will meaningfully increase the share of collateral pledged at the #ECB that is covered by the climate factor. Downside: this extension will only be implemented by the end of 2027.
ecb.europa.eu
ECB to extend use of climate factors in Eurosystem collateral framework to non-financial corporate credit claims
The European Central Bank (ECB) is the central bank of the European Union countries which have adopted the euro. Our main task is to maintain price stability in the euro area and so preserve the purch...
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Finance Watch @financewatch.bsky.social · 24/07/2026
📢 #JobAlert: We're hiring a (Senior) Research & Advocacy Officer – Public Finance! Work on EU fiscal rules, debt sustainability, climate risks, policy research and advocacy. 💼 Join us in Brussels to make finance serve society. Apply now 🔗 www.finance-watch.org/job/senior-r...
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Disco Central Banker @centralbanker.bsky.social · 22/07/2026
As Deutsche Bank is being raided for the third time this year, it’s worth remembering that when Germany pitched Frankfurt as the home of the EU AML Authority , one of its selling points was that the authority’s onsite inspections would be within walking distance.
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Antoine de Cabanes @adecabanes.bsky.social · 22/07/2026
Nominal GDP is still below its 2008 level. Poverty and suicide rates skyrocketed & are still way higher than in 2008. Average full time adjusted salary per employee is now the second to last in the EU. Austerity and structural reforms devastated the Greek society, there’s no other way of putting it
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Zoe Tillman @zoetillman.bsky.social · 20/07/2026
Round 2: The Fed firing fight has been formally sent back to the district court for the next phase of proceedings after Trump and DOJ failed to convince SCOTUS to let him immediately oust Governor Lisa Cook (refresher: www.bloomberg.com/news/article...). TBD on what the next round will look like
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Antoine de Cabanes @adecabanes.bsky.social · 18/07/2026
The current heatwaves give us a glimpse of what the future will look like. As global carbon emissions have not yet begun to decline, the #climate crisis is only just beginning. Yet the #EU can think of nothing better than to dismantle the mechanisms it has put in place to achieve carbon neutrality.
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Antoine de Cabanes @adecabanes.bsky.social · 15/07/2026
They would also state clearly how minimal the expected economic impact of this deregulatory drive is. The Commission itself forecasts a maximum annual gain for of €37.5 billion, which amounts to 0.2% of the EU 2025 GDP. 2/2 commission.europa.eu/law/law-maki...
commission.europa.eu
Simplification
The European Commission is reducing regulatory burdens to strengthen EU competitiveness while protecting economic, social, and environmental goals.
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Antoine de Cabanes @adecabanes.bsky.social · 15/07/2026
In an ideal world, journalists would deconstruct the framing used by political actors and coporate sector's lobbyists. Hence, they would stop describing this massive and unprecedented #deregulation as "cutting red tape" or "removing administrative burden" or "slashing bureaucracy" 1/2
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Antoine de Cabanes @adecabanes.bsky.social · 07/07/2026
Might be of interest www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
cambridge.org
It’s Not Polarization; It’s the Radicalization of the Political Right | Perspectives on Politics | Cambridge Core
It’s Not Polarization; It’s the Radicalization of the Political Right
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Antoine de Cabanes @adecabanes.bsky.social · 07/07/2026
The key question now is the electronic tag : Le Pen is eligible but said that she would not run if she had to wear an electronic tag (which makes sense from a logistic point of view, but also politically/symbolically). And she's just been sentenced to a year of wearing an electronic tag
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Antoine de Cabanes @adecabanes.bsky.social · 07/07/2026
Yes she can, as the ban-sentence begins from the date of the first judgement
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Antoine de Cabanes @adecabanes.bsky.social · 07/07/2026
Bilan de 10 ans de macronisme : les taux à 10 ans sur la dette publique française sont plus élevés que ceux de l'Italie et de la Grèce. #Macron comme Liz Truss montrent à quel point les baisses d'impôts pour les ménages fortunés et les multinationales produisent un désastre économique et budgétaire
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Antoine de Cabanes @adecabanes.bsky.social · 29/06/2026
In both cases, Republican political actors blocked Trump's attempts to seize control of the Federal Reserve. This is no coincidence: since Trump's first term, his preferences about the Fed & monetary policy ran contrary to the #GOP traditional views of the central bank and its policies. 4/4
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Antoine de Cabanes @adecabanes.bsky.social · 29/06/2026
Today, the Supreme Court ruled in a 5-4 decision that Trump does not have the constitutional authority to fire a Fed governor without cause. The ruling was authored by Chief Justice Roberts and supported by Justice Kavanaugh, who both were appointed to the Court by Republican Presidents. 3/4
supremecourt.gov
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Antoine de Cabanes @adecabanes.bsky.social · 29/06/2026
Earlier this year, Thom Tillis (Republican Senator from North Carolina) blocked Warsh's confirmation as Fed chair until the Department of Justice dropped its criminal investigation of Powell. The DOJ finally closed the investigation in April, clearing the way for #Warsh to become Fed chair 2/4
politico.com
‘Tillis won’: DOJ drops probe into Powell, Fed renovations
The move likely clears the way for a confirmation vote on Kevin Warsh to become the next Fed chair.
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Antoine de Cabanes @adecabanes.bsky.social · 29/06/2026
Trump’s latest attempts to take control of the Federal Reserve have failed. The key explanatory variable here is monetary politics, and more precisely the opposition of some Republicans to Trump on the #Fed 's independence. A quick thread (1/4) www.ft.com/content/84db...
ft.com
US Supreme Court blocks Donald Trump from sacking Fed governor Lisa Cook
Justices fail to over-rule the president from firing a regulator in a separate decision
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Philipp Heimberger @heimbergecon.bsky.social · 29/06/2026
France is actively pushing for new revenue sources in the EU budget 2028–2034 as a way to avoid politically toxic debates about higher national contributions. Good! We have just completed a study analysing various options for new own resources 🧵
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Antoine de Cabanes @adecabanes.bsky.social · 26/06/2026
I would have loved it if the Commission had scheduled a meeting today of the team in charge of climate deregulation and the Green Deal gutting 😁 www.politico.eu/article/eu-c...
politico.eu
EU Commission HQ forced to shut down air-conditioning amid heatwave
As Brussels bakes, the Berlaymont building’s AC stops working.
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Antoine de Cabanes @adecabanes.bsky.social · 26/06/2026
A 1994 law tasked the Federal Reserve with regulating "unfair and deceptive" practices in mortgage lending. The Greenspan Fed refused to use this authority, the subprime bubble burst in 2007. That's Greenspan legacy: the largest financial crisis since the Great Depression www.ft.com/content/e26e...
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Antoine de Cabanes @adecabanes.bsky.social · 26/06/2026
Another day, another climate policy dismantling 😠 ICYDK methane is more than 28 times as potent as carbon dioxide at trapping heat in the atmosphere and is deemed responsible for around 30% of the rise in global temperatures since the industrial revolution. www.politico.eu/article/big-...
politico.eu
Big Oil’s campaign to stop EU methane restrictions is working
Almost half of the 27 EU member countries now support delaying the rules.
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Antoine de Cabanes @adecabanes.bsky.social · 26/06/2026
Amazing timing 🤬 One more (but incredibly timely) reminder that preserving the habitability of our planet is incompatible with preserving the rate of profit and the accumulation model of financialised capitalism
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Benjamin Braun @benbraun.social · 23/06/2026
The ECB just hiked into an oil price shock, again. In our new paper for the EP Monetary Dialogue, we argue that this needs to stop. 🧵 If inflation is a function of the energy mix (✅) and the energy mix a function of monetary policy (✅), then even a narrow reading of the ECB’s mandate ... 1/
STUDY
Requested by the ECON Committee
Monetary Dialogue Papers, June 2026

"Inflation, Supply Shocks and the Case for a Cautious and Differentiated Monetary Policy Response"
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Antoine de Cabanes @adecabanes.bsky.social · 16/06/2026
Emergency Liquidity Assistance is back ! Or it is a acomeback of the pre-Covid debates about a dedicated instrument (the Eurosystem resolution liquidity) In both cases, a major issue will be the discretionary room of manoeuver of the #ECB in deciding to provide (or not) liquidity to a failing bank
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Antoine de Cabanes @adecabanes.bsky.social · 12/06/2026
But it raises legal and political questions : 1) Would the German constitutional court tolerate the rolling over of NGEU debt ? Not so sure given its December 2022 ruling on the legality of NGEU 2) How politically & electorally toxic would it be for Merz to make joint EU debt permanent ?
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Antoine de Cabanes @adecabanes.bsky.social · 12/06/2026
Therefore rolling over the NGEU debt would be the most rational choice : - it does not imply budgetary costs for Germany (unlike higher national contribution or the end of its rebate) - it would solidify EU bonds' status as safe asset and thus help developp the international role of the euro
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Antoine de Cabanes @adecabanes.bsky.social · 12/06/2026
New EU-level taxes seem impracticable : - Poland opposes diverting revenues of the EU carbon market (ETS) from national budget to the MFF - Ireland and other tax heavens oppose taxing the biggest companies (so-called Corporate Resource for Europe) www.euractiv.com/news/commiss...
euractiv.com
Commission seeks new ideas after EU-wide tax deadlock | Euractiv
Discussions on the 'own resources' have stalled at the technical level due to deep disagreements among capitals, Euractiv has learned
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Antoine de Cabanes @adecabanes.bsky.social · 12/06/2026
In other words, if Berlin really wants funding for new priorities (competitiveness, defence) in the 2028-34 MFF, Germany will have to accept either the rolling-over of NGEU debt, either a larger budget (which will require higher MS contributions and/or end of the rebates and/or new EU-level taxes)
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Antoine de Cabanes @adecabanes.bsky.social · 12/06/2026
Here lies the biggest inconsistency of Germany's wish list : given that meaningfully cutting cohesion & CAP is politically impractible, it is impossible to increase funding for new priorities whilst maintaining rebates, opposing new taxes & repaying the NGEU debt. Something will have to give
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Clem Fon @clemfon.bsky.social · 10/06/2026
In a week (Friday 19th), the Belgium Political Economy Working group organises its 6th bi-annual conference in Brussels. On the menu: a doctoral session, two sessions on green and european political economies and a fantastic keynote speaker: Andrea Binder. Info: politicaleconomy.be/news/2026-06...
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Antoine de Cabanes @adecabanes.bsky.social · 05/06/2026
What a wonderful idea to (once again) postpone the implementation of Basel III Endgame ... In the current economic context, letting EU banks use their own internal models to determine their capital requirements will undoubtedly contribute to financial stability www.reuters.com/business/fin...
reuters.com
EU delays bank risk capital framework by three years, awaiting US, standards
The European Commission will delay the introduction of a new market risk capital framework for banks for ​three years to see how the U.S. and Britain ‌implement the same international standards, it sa...
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Antoine de Cabanes @adecabanes.bsky.social · 21/05/2026
Les hommages à Barney #Frank soulignent son combat opiniâtre pour les droits LGBT et la loi de régulation financière de 2010 qui porte son nom. N'oublions pas non plus cette formule, pleine d'ironie mais tellement éclairante sur les crises financières, énoncée par Frank le lendemain du bailout d'AIG
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Daniela Gabor @danielagabor.bsky.social · 03/05/2026
Trump's petrowars threaten to unleash carbon shock therapy around the world - disorderly decarbonization and deindustrialisation. The answer, we argue w @benbraun.eurosky.social, is decarbonised sovereignty, a pathway for the Santa Marta coalition. www.phenomenalworld.org/analysis/aga...
phenomenalworld.org
Against Carbon Shock Therapy | Daniela Gabor & Benjamin Braun
The war in Iran has sent oil prices skyrocketing. Daniela Gabor and Benjamin Braun argue the ripple effects and states (non)responses to the crisis represent a
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Nick Timiraos @nicktimiraos.bsky.social · 19/04/2026
Thom Tillis’s colleagues don’t see him backing down on his Fed blockade and aren’t trying to stop him “If you’re asking me if I think that Tillis is bluffing, the short answer is no. Long answer is hell no,” said Sen. John Kennedy (R., La.)
wsj.com
In Fed Fight, Trump Faces the Senator With Nothing to Lose
A Senate committee is weighing Trump’s choice for the next Federal Reserve chair this week, but there’s someone blocking his confirmation: North Carolina’s Sen. Thom Tillis.
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Nick Timiraos @nicktimiraos.bsky.social · 16/04/2026
If no chair is confirmed by May 15, who leads the Fed? The Fed and the White House seem to have very different answers—a suddenly live dispute after Trump’s latest threat to fire Powell. It’s a question that a 28-year-old John Roberts weighed in on. www.wsj.com/economy/cent...
wsj.com
The Decades-Old Legal Question at the Heart of the Fed Chair Showdown
The law doesn’t clearly say what happens when the chair’s term expires without a confirmed successor. The White House and the Fed have very different answers.
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