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Anti-Corruption Data Collective @acdatacollective.bsky.social · 20/08/2026

More than 150 Polymarket wallets may have traded on military secrets, research finds - @reuters.com www.reuters.com/business/fin...

Nonprofit ACDC identifies 556 "Orca" Polymarket wallets that frequently appear, trade and disappear

ACDC identifies 152 of those Orca wallets that bet on military markets with 97.2% average win rate

ACDC finds that some of those bets drew copycat wagers before Iran military action

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Anti-Corruption Data Collective @acdatacollective.bsky.social · 17/08/2026

Trading, however, is concentrated in a few high-profile races. This means the majority of markets are still extremely thin and small - low volumes of trading, and few wallets. Small bets move the price in most markets.

A scatter plot showing the prediction market volume and number of wallets trading in each market on the US 2026 midterm elections. 77% of markets are concentrated in the 'thin and small' quadrant.

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Anti-Corruption Data Collective @acdatacollective.bsky.social · 17/08/2026

The number of markets opened on congressional elections has exploded. There are already 16 times as many as there were in 2024. This means more granular, niche questions on outcomes like primaries, margins, turnout, speeches and endorsements.

A bar chart showing the number of prediction markets on midterm congressional eleections opened per quarter from 2024 to 2026. In Q1 2026, the number of markets increases suddenly, from hundreds, to around 2000 markets opened per quarter.

Two pie charts showing the subject of congressional midterm election markets on major prediction market platforms in 2024 v 2026.
In 2024, 71% of markets were about the winner of the race.
In 2026, that is just 14%, with primary results now and margin / vote share now accounting for 76% together.

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Anti-Corruption Data Collective @acdatacollective.bsky.social · 17/08/2026

🗳️ On Kalshi, Polymarket and Polymarket US, tens of milions of dollars are being bet on the US congressional midterm elections in November. 💵 Three months before election day, betting volume has already exceeded the 2024 cycle. But, just 1% of users control 68% of the volume on Polymarket. 🧵

A chart comparing cumulative total prediction market trading volume on the 2026 and 2024 midterm elections.
2026 shows a total of $133.3m through August 10. 2024 shows a total of $92.4m in the weeks after Election Day.

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Anti-Corruption Data Collective @acdatacollective.bsky.social · 02/06/2026

How Dictators Use Corruption To Destroy Democracy (and Get Insanely Rich in the Process) @oslofreedomforum.com, tomorrow 14:15 - 15:15 Featuring: ACDC's @szakonyi.bsky.social with @ishaantharoor.bsky.social, Elsa Peraldi and Vadim Kleiner. oslofreedomforum.com/event/oslo-f...

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Anti-Corruption Data Collective @acdatacollective.bsky.social · 30/04/2026

But political markets were different. They were the second most successful category for longshot bets, with 25% of such bets winning. We observed $35 million in winning-outcome longshot wagers. $9 million of that was bet in 10 weeks in 2026!

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Anti-Corruption Data Collective @acdatacollective.bsky.social · 30/04/2026

We identify around $8 billion in trading volume in the political markets most susceptible to information advantage: those determined and knowable in advance by a group of insiders. These are frequently the biggest category of political markets on Polymarket.

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Anti-Corruption Data Collective @acdatacollective.bsky.social · 21/01/2026

On 5 February join @szakonyi.bsky.social @lizdavidbarrett.bsky.social & Tom Mayne for a deep dive into the potential for leaked data to underpin illicit finance research. David will present a new ACDC study into the effectiveness of de-risking as an AML tool, based on data from the #CongoHoldUp.

The Promise and Perils of Using Leaked and Sensitive Data to Research Illicit Finance
February 5
2 - 3pm GMT / 9am - 10am ET
Speakers:
Liz David-Barrett
David Szakonyi
Tom Mayne

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Anti-Corruption Data Collective @acdatacollective.bsky.social · 10/10/2025

Anti-Christ Data Collective? 😈 www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025...

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Anti-Corruption Data Collective @acdatacollective.bsky.social · 07/02/2025

For years, the US has led the pack on the investigation and enforcement of foreign bribery. Wednesday’s memo by AG Pam Bondi shifting DoJ focus away from cases that aren’t linked to drug cartels puts that in jeopardy. 📊 From @anticorruption.bsky.social's 2022 Exporting Corruption report.

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Anti-Corruption Data Collective @acdatacollective.bsky.social · 14/11/2024

Concerned about #corruption derailing climate action? Join us tomorrow, 11.15.24, for an online event discussing our latest report: COP Co-Opted? How Corruption and Undue Influence Threaten Multilateral Climate Action lp.constantcontactpages.com/ev/reg/c5wru9y #COP29 #COP29Azerbaijan

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Anti-Corruption Data Collective @acdatacollective.bsky.social · 04/11/2024

Azerbaijan’s state oil company SOCAR has been implicated in alleged bribery and illicit influence operations by Azerbaijan in Europe 🇪🇺and the US 🇺🇸 The company also appears to be playing a significant role in organizing COP 29.

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Anti-Corruption Data Collective @acdatacollective.bsky.social · 04/11/2024

In one week, #COP29 begins in Baku, Azerbaijan🇦🇿 Our latest report with @anticorruption.bsky.social details the risks the summit faces from #corruption, fossil fuel influence and #greenwashing, and how these imperil the broader UNFCCC framework. 🧵 acdatacollective.org/blog/we-need...

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