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Aaron Helton

@aaronhelton.com
265 followers 488 following 1.6K posts

He/Him Library systems dev @ UN Library en/es TTRPGs, ♾️ DM Reader. Writer. Digital Humanist in training @ CUNY GC. William Blake stan. AI Hater. 📍Vienna, Austria www.aaronhelton.com and blog.hilltown.studio Likes/Reposts ≠ endorsements.

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Reposted by Aaron Helton
Bruno Dias @brunodias.dev · 34m
# BANNED AND RESTRICTED ANNOUNCEMENT / 09/30/2026 One-card spread: The Ten of Swords is *banned* The Nine of cups is *banned* Another season of pro tarot league is almost upon us. While most formats are thriving, in the fast and degenerate world of one-card we're seeing concerning metagame data,
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Hierophant Shelley B Woke - Living Saint of Purity🏳️‍⚧️🖤💜🤍 💛 @shelleybwoke.bsky.social · 2h
Using genAi to drag up the corpses of actual human actors to make more money off their legacy is also rape culture.
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The Stillfleet Studio ☉ more than play 🇵🇸 @stillfleet.bsky.social · 15h
Stillfleet Studio is heading to Gaelcon 2026! Come meet the team and play the Grit System games with us! 🎲 PICARO! — Fri Oct 23, 18:00 💀 Danse Macabre — Sat Oct 24, 22:00 🚀 Stillfleet — Sun Oct 25 & Mon Oct 26, 10:00 See you at Gaelcon! 🎲⚡ #Gaelcon2026 #Stillfleet #GritSystem #TTRPG
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Tressie McMillan Cottom @tressiemcphd.bsky.social · 16h
We are going to occasionally talk about AI, work, data politics, and sociality here for everyday people. Some ground rules: 1. we won’t cotton to a lot of intellectual elitism (“morons” etc.) 2. This will focus on how I ask questions. This is *my* lens on the world. YMMV is always implied.
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Matt Seybold @mattseybold.bsky.social · 16h
This is my data politics collection. I’m not saying it’s exhaustive. It’s growing almost every day. And several volumes (like “The Nerd Reich”) are scattered elsewhere & in use. But my point is: I have one. And I think you should too.
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Rise Up Comus @riseupcomus.bsky.social · 17h
Old-school saving throws are one of those things you always want to name and rename until they're perfect (like attributes). One of their virtues is that they tell you what the game is about (Death! Poison! Petrification!). Trying out this set for a little project. They map to the OSE ones.
An OSE style class table for the Knight with the saving throws: Faith, Wit, Grit, Quick, and Counter-spell.
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Miguel Sicart @miguelsicart.bsky.social · 16h
Impressive how uninteresting these people are. Weird, but also so, so, so dull.
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Aaron Helton @aaronhelton.com · 16h
Personally, I wouldn't knowingly use AI-generated music even for the low stakes uses I have for background music (TTRPGs). I certainly wouldn't pay for it.
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Zach Weinersmith @zachweinersmith.bsky.social · 16h
One of my main mental buoys right now as ai eats the world is Bea Wolf 2. I don't think I can write any better than that, and it was hard, and every time I see a book get withdrawn (for secretly being ai) after winning many awards I think of the ballad of John Henry racing the steam drill*.
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Aaron Helton @aaronhelton.com · 16h
..recoup your losses with a few follow-up prompts. Most likely, though, you'll spend more time than necessary chasing a receding goal as the AI gets hung up on statistical minutia, invents new subtasks, and churns until you walk away or run out of tokens, all while it tells you how smart you are.
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Aaron Helton @aaronhelton.com · 16h
In gambling with money, you keep going when you're down in hopes of winning back what you lost. But the iron rule of that kind of gambling is that the house always wins. So you might get lucky, but on average, people don't. Likewise, you may craft a perfect one-shot prompt, or slightly more likely..
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Aaron Helton @aaronhelton.com · 16h
Also my experience more than half the time, which does little to dissuade me from my assertion that this is part and parcel of the gambling economics that seem to have captured commerce at the moment. Where each spin of the wheel offers the chance of correcting the error the first spin introduced.
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Aaron Helton @aaronhelton.com · 16h
Yeah definitely looks to me like "throw it at everything and see what sticks well enough to call it a win", but even then, what counts as a "win" is qualified and might not even be durable.
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Aaron Helton @aaronhelton.com · 17h
I used to work in HR systems, both private sector and US government. These gaps have always been, to use a military-ism, wide enough to march a battalion through. The HR software was *supposed* to help narrow the gaps, which they identified as the reason for (costly) fit mismatches. Results? Mixed.
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Jennifer Ouellette @jenlucpiquant.bsky.social · 17h
The Oldest Book Printed with Movable Type is Not The Gutenberg Bible: Jikji, a Collection of Korean Buddhist Teachings, Predated It By 78 Years and It’s Now Digitized Online www.openculture.com/2026/09/the-...
openculture.com
The Oldest Book Printed with Movable Type is Not The Gutenberg Bible: Jikji, a Collection of Korean Buddhist Teachings, Predated It By 78 Years and It’s Now Digitized Online
The history of the printed word is full of bibliographic twists and turns, major historical moments, and the significant printing of books now so obscure no one has read them since their publication.
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evacide @evacide.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
Meta Muse appears to read your Apple messages and upload them to the cloud even if you explicitly tell it not to: appleinsider.com/articles/26/...
appleinsider.com
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will jobst @willjobst.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
playing different games is good but playing with different people may be better
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Thursday Garreau @keftiu.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
the OSR and PbtA scenes have some real common ground and i'm glad that some of the petty tribalism around both has died out. we get better games when folks take from multiple movements for their designs, imo!
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Tressie McMillan Cottom @tressiemcphd.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
I can’t say strongly enough that these are not realistic scenarios for the people I observed and, based on data about family lives, almost anyone else we might consider normal and/or not rich.
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Alicia @heyalicia.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
People handle tasks so complex and with so many shifting variables as part of our day-to-day existence that the complexity is underestimated. It’s like how knitting machines have existed for over 400 years but there still isn’t a machine that can crochet, though we think of those tasks as comparable
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Earth & Environmental Sciences Ph.D Program-CUNY Graduate Center @eesgccuny.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
Curious about a PhD? Join our Earth & Environmental Sciences Open House on Thursday, October 8 in-person at the CUNY Grad Center or on Zoom! #CUNY #PhD #Admissions Details & registration: www.gc.cuny.edu/events/ees-a... @thegraduatecenter.bsky.social
Flyer for CUNY Earth & Environmental Sciences PhD Admissions Open House on Thursday, October 8 in-person at the CUNY Grad Center or on Zoom!
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Rachel Gunter, Ph.D. 🗃️ @phdrachel.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
I don't know how they think AI is going to take over the grocery shopping when most people aren't satisfied with another human doing the shopping on Door Dash/Instacart.
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Dorothy Berry @dorothyjberry.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
An eternal bummer correlation to the necessary truth that there is no level of cultural milquetoast you can make yourself that will make you respectable enough to be heard in your profession, is that there is also no level of competency that will get you there either
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Astreia @redoubters.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
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Albert Pinto @70sbachchan.bsky.social · 27/09/2026
@washingtonpost reported earlier that hospitals insurance costs next year are projected to spike by the most in 2 decades, partly "due to medical providers’ increased use of artificial intelligence to find more claims they can bill for" www.washingtonpost.com/business/202...
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Bruno Dias @brunodias.dev · 27/09/2026
1. "Intelligence" in regards to living beings is at best a loose umbrella term for a diversity of behaviors and systems and at worst an eugenicist project 2. "Intelligence" in humans does not emerge strictly from symbolic manipulation, nor does it correlate with symbolic manipulation
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Christina Wolbrecht @cwolbrecht.bsky.social · 20/09/2026
Delighted to see our Element, Gender & Local Political Ambition, out in the world this week! We ask whether local politics (with lower demands & closer to home) and appointed offices (which don’t require campaigning) are more attractive & accessible to women. 🧵 www.cambridge.org/core/element...
Cover image of the Cambridge Element, Gender & Local Politocal Ambition by C Wolbrecht, M Holman, L Iyer, S Chapa, F Rodger, & E Schroeder.
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Hell Dunkin @halduncan.com · 27/09/2026
CSAMagotchi
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Prisonculture @prisonculture.bsky.social · 26/09/2026
People sleep on CUNY but it is one of the absolute JEWELS of U.S. Higher Ed and has been for decades. And what's the thanks the system gets??? It has to fight for its life every single year because it has been systematically defunded.
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Gillian Branstetter @gbbranstetter.bsky.social · 27/09/2026
Reading a very strange and timely book from 1956 called The Obsolesence of The Human
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Exhausted sociologist @iaracpassos.bsky.social · 26/09/2026
@mozilla.org launched a campaign against the tech billionaire class during the UNGA — and my face is in NY. 🧵 The ad places me next to Zuckerberg: he manufactures surveillance eyewear; I build local AI to expose political violence in Brazil, with Instituto Fogo Cruzado.
Triad of posters from the Mozilla Foundation campaign. First panel, left: Mark Zuckerberg; second panel, center: Iara, a white woman wearing glasses. Above, the text "Mark gets into eyewear / Gives creepers, peepers" over Zuckerberg and "Iara builds local AI / Exposes political violence" over Iara. Third panel, white background, all caps: "The powerful shouldn't choose what we see", below: "We all decide."Triad of posters from the Mozilla Foundation campaign. First panel, left: Jeff Bezos; second panel, center: Rose Njeri Tunguru. Above, the text "Jeff builds a rocket. Celebrities go to outer space." over Jeff and "Rose builds democracy tools. Kenyan voices grow stronger." over Rose. Third panel, white background, all caps: "Joyrides won't build a better future", below: "We all will."Triad of posters from the Mozilla Foundation campaign. First panel, left: Elon Musk; second panel, center: Rudy. Above, the text "Elon buys the blue bird. He trashes the place." over Elon and "Rudy builds Blacksky. Communities call the shots." over Rudy. Third panel, white background, all caps: "Wannabe kings don't rule the internet", below: "We all do."
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Aaron Helton @aaronhelton.com · 25/09/2026
But can I take it to a job interview?
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Aaron Helton @aaronhelton.com · 25/09/2026
Damn, I didn't get that last job because I walked widdershins around the chair. Thankfully I counted. It was fewer than 7 times.
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Aaron Helton @aaronhelton.com · 25/09/2026
Where's the lie? You know exactly how this would turn out.
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990000 @990000.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
lnkd.in/p/gwq86W7w
Denis O.
Fintech Professional | Al Solution Ar...

The classical Al winter is here..

Everybody is running around with Jev or RLCD like it is the new kid on the block. Fast decisions, probabilities, confidence, structured outputs. No giant stream of generated tokens. Ooooh, ahhhh! Lol..
RLCD stands for Reinforcement Learning for Calibrated Decisions. But strip away the marketing and it is the familiar machine learning and statistics.. train a
model so its predicted probabilities are calibrated
against observed outcomes. But probability calibration is not a new concept. Neither are classifiers, scorers, discriminative models, confidence estimation, structured prediction or decision functions.
Yet somehow Al changed generations and forgot its own field.Of course a system designed to make bounded decisions can outperform an LLM at bounded decision making. LLMs were never designed to be
stable autonomous decision engines in the first place. Go back to Attention Is All You Need. It was not a paper about AGI, autonomous intelligence or a
universal cognitive architecture. The Transformer was introduced as a sequence transduction architecture and demonstrated on machine translation. Then we became hypnotized by fluency at scale.. Hyperscale it enough, feed it enough
human output, and the statistical continuation over bullshit became so convincing that an entire industry started confusing linguistic competence with intelligence.. Then we wrapped it in tools, memory, RAG, planning loops and agent harnesses
and tried to turn a probabilistic sequence generator into an autonomous cognitive system.
And the industry response to Jev is hilarious. We are rediscovering classification, scoring, regression,
state estimation, structured prediction and bounded probabilistic decision making all over again when we already had all of this for decades if not a century (.!).Jev may be useful engineering. Yet everybody is acting shocked that direct decision computation can be faster and more stable than asking a giant autoregressive LLM to generate tokens about the decision first.
It feels like the Al industry is suffering from dementia.. It went through machine learning, neural networks, reinforcement learning, probabilistic models, expert systems, cognitive architectures, search and planning.. Transformers came around,
scale exploded, and somehow everybody forgot where we had already been.. Now we are walking
around the same tracks in circle and calling it major progress. 
The deeper problem is simple.Hyperscaling did not breach the intelligence wall. It gave us extraordinary generative NLP, structured coding and generally better learned distributions through curated human labeled datasets.. But scaling the NLP did not magically turn it into a
fundamentally different form of intelligence or superduper AGI.. Stable autonomy under uncertainty
is still out of reach for GenAl.
So now the industry is moving backward while calling it 'forward' or Jev.. and that, my bros, is your
standard classical Al winter.
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Aaron Helton @aaronhelton.com · 25/09/2026
It's been a dream for the web since 1998, and it's been largely elusive since. And given the way things are going right now, I'm not sure it will ever be viable. Which means we'll be stuck instead with what some bloated platforms can summon statistically from the glut of info they've devoured.
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Aaron Helton @aaronhelton.com · 25/09/2026
Anyway, what RDF represents is a durable representation of asserted relationships that, within a framework of trust, can therefore translate to a durable representation of facts, distributed in a way that allows surprising questions but arbitrarily reproducible answers.
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Aaron Helton @aaronhelton.com · 25/09/2026
Apropos of nothing, I'm wondering why I never tried running Bakto's Terrifying Cuisine with the Wendy's TTRPG Feast of Legends. The PCs are made of food. (Which from certain perspectives was always true no matter the system...)
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Aaron Helton @aaronhelton.com · 25/09/2026
But the difference is that LLMs *seem* to be continually re-ingesting entire websites at the host's expense (one of several reasons the web is borked at any given time), especially if the data is not static. At the very least, distributed queries across RDF stores can (or should be) more targeted...
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Aaron Helton @aaronhelton.com · 25/09/2026
We can tell they're hammering websites because we can see the logs. There's otherwise no good reason for them to go fetch old data again and again to attempt to answer a question, except that they're (again, expensively) recompiling data they've sourced, ad infinitum.
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Aaron Helton @aaronhelton.com · 25/09/2026
Like other open systems, big players are happy to *consume* this kind of data. They just don't always contribute to the ecosystem of it, which is a consequence of their drive to centralize everything they can. Perhaps weirdly, LLMs attempt (at high cost) something similar to a semantic web query.
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Aaron Helton @aaronhelton.com · 25/09/2026
In its purest form, the semantic web is a massive web-scale database that you can leverage to run queries and joins and all that jazz, but because each thing you join with might be a different server, all those nodes make it weirdly fragile in ways that distributed systems are designed to mitigate.
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Aaron Helton @aaronhelton.com · 25/09/2026
From professional experience, I can tell you that machines *love* RDF, at least if my site stats are any indication. This stuff is made for machine traversal. But they do create an often unsustainable load on the system I have serving semantic web data, and they aren't slowing down.
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Aaron Helton @aaronhelton.com · 25/09/2026
When it's all done on the web, it's called the semantic web. The major downside to the semantic web as envisioned is that it requires a kind of infrastructure that bigger companies seem unwilling to make available and smaller players find too expensive to get up and running.
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Aaron Helton @aaronhelton.com · 25/09/2026
Moreover, it will give you that same data each time you ask for it with the same query unless the data itself has changed (e.g., added/removed/updated triples). Which means you could connect a natural language question to a means of generating this query.
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Aaron Helton @aaronhelton.com · 25/09/2026
This is most evident when the training data is sparse in the selected domain, because the models are generally tuned to say something rather than nothing. Querying a triplestore gives you what it can or nothing at all, or the closest match if you'v left it open to do so.
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Aaron Helton @aaronhelton.com · 25/09/2026
As the theory goes, armed with a set of trusted RDF triplestores, one can construct a query that will traverse the triplestores in precisely the same way each time. This is not how LLMs operate, because if you ask the same question in successive new sessions, LLMs give different answers each time.
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Aaron Helton @aaronhelton.com · 25/09/2026
Now, anyone can assert anything in RDF. Mistaken or even malicious assertions might find their way in. But an idea behind creating this web of interlinked assertions is that one might choose to trust or distrust a supplier of such assertions (RDF triples, or a graph).
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Aaron Helton @aaronhelton.com · 25/09/2026
But I started this with RDF. Because RDF is a means of encoding some kind of fact. Or rather, it's a means of asserting some kind of relationship between two things, with webs of interconnectedness and characterizations of those relationships. Semantic characterizations.
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Aaron Helton @aaronhelton.com · 25/09/2026
The data they're pulling from may be authoritative in some way, domain constrained, or whatever. But for the big models on the cloud, they are necessarily multi-domain. Which means while there certainly are facts within the data, they are only surfaced by probability and compute.
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