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Zack Cooper

@zackcooper.bsky.social
2.4K followers 298 following 61 posts

Senior Fellow at the American Enterprise Institute Lecturer at Princeton University Partner at Armitage International Former Pentagon and White House staffer Wrangler of children

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Reposted by Zack Cooper
Asia Society New York @newyork.asiasociety.org · 27/09/2026
On Oct. 6, join @asiapolicy.asiasociety.org for an in-person discussion on the Quad’s evolution under the second Trump administration and what comes next. With Dr. Ken Jimbo, Dr. Thitinan Pongsudhirak, @faamer.bsky.social, @zackcooper.bsky.social, and @emmachanlettavery.bsky.social. Get tickets:
asiasociety.org
The Quad Reassessed: Regional Dynamics in a Changing Indo-Pacific
Join the Asia Society Policy Institute for a panel discussion examining the Quad’s evolution under the second Trump administration and what comes next.
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Zack Cooper @zackcooper.bsky.social · 12/06/2026
"Washington's Asian Allies Need a Backup Plan" - from Mira Rapp-Hooper and me in @foreignpolicy.com: foreignpolicy.com/2026/06/11/t...
foreignpolicy.com
Washington’s Asian Allies Need a Backup Plan
A strategic rethink is needed in an era of U.S. unreliability.
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Zack Cooper @zackcooper.bsky.social · 15/05/2026
POMP AND CIRCUMSTANCE, SIGNIFYING NOTHING. That's my Trump-Xi take... Few deals. No breakthroughs. But thankfully no US concessions on Taiwan or tech. Hard to call this summit a success, since it didn't really address any US-China structural problems. Yet not a disaster either.
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Zack Cooper @zackcooper.bsky.social · 12/05/2026
Big thank you to Sal @mercoglianos.bsky.social for hosting this discussion with John Konrad on the (now nuclear!) battleship. I think we'd be better off building subs and smaller ships given the battleship's cost and complexity. But we had a good time, so listen and decide for yourselves:
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Reposted by Zack Cooper
Secretary of Defense Rock @sodrock.bsky.social · 12/05/2026
Critical support to @zackcooper.bsky.social
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Zack Cooper @zackcooper.bsky.social · 18/02/2026
This is my (admittedly pessimistic) take on US policy in Asia. We are distracted, divided, and resource constrained. The question now is not whether the US will pivot to Asia, but how far we might pull back. I fear that simply trying to defend the first island chain is not a feasible strategy.
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Reposted by Zack Cooper
Foreign Affairs @foreignaffairs.com · 17/02/2026
@zackcooper.bsky.social discusses Washington’s failed pivot to Asia—and considers what a more realistic regional strategy would look like.
foreignaffairs.com
Asia After America
How U.S. strategy failed—and ceded the advantage to China.
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Zack Cooper @zackcooper.bsky.social · 06/01/2026
I may have slightly overestimated Maduro’s longevity in power…
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Reposted by Zack Cooper
Washington Post Opinions @postopinions.bsky.social · 16/12/2025
"The administration is trying so hard to avoid angering Beijing that it is pulling its foreign policy punches as well," Derek Scissors and @zackcooper.bsky.social write. wapo.st/4s7saun
wapo.st
Opinion | America first? Not when Trump is dealing with China.
The president’s second-term China policy started out aggressive. That quickly changed.
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Zack Cooper @zackcooper.bsky.social · 09/12/2025
Welcome to the Trump administration, ladies and gentlemen.
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Reposted by Zack Cooper
Foreign Affairs @foreignaffairs.com · 06/11/2025
“Without a plan for terminating a war in Taiwan, Washington would risk repeating the pattern of U.S. strategy in Iraq and Afghanistan that many Trump officials critiqued: winning the first battle but losing the war,” argues @zackcooper.bsky.social.
foreignaffairs.com
How War in Taiwan Ends
Even if deterrence fails, America could thwart China.
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Zack Cooper @zackcooper.bsky.social · 30/09/2025
The team at ChinaFile asked eight of us to assess the state of play in US-China relations and who has the upper hand in the ongoing negotiations. I think it's pretty clear. Beijing is showing its capabilities and biding its time. And it's working. www.chinafile.com/conversation...
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Zack Cooper @zackcooper.bsky.social · 25/09/2025
I'm just going to leave this here... 🤔 www.aei.org/foreign-and-...
aei.org
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Zack Cooper @zackcooper.bsky.social · 17/09/2025
In the last year we have gone from: BEIJING begging WASHINGTON to allow it to buy advanced semiconductors to... WASHINGTON begging BEIJING to allow it to sell advanced semiconductors I give up. 🤦‍♂️
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Reposted by Zack Cooper
The National Bureau of Asian Research @nbr.org · 12/09/2025
ASIA INSIGHT PODCAST: Zack Cooper (@zackcooper.bsky.social), Bee Yun Jo, and Lavina Lee discuss the sustainability of U.S. extended #deterrence and #nuclear restraint in #Australia, #Japan, and #SouthKorea in light of three trends. www.nbr.org/publication/...
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Zack Cooper @zackcooper.bsky.social · 11/09/2025
In short, the time has come to rethink the rebalance. This world will be more complex and dangerous. But American strategists must accept the world they have created and craft realistic approaches to protect US interests in this evolving region. rsis.edu.sg/rsis-publica...
rsis.edu.sg
IP25086 | Rethinking the Rebalance
KEY TAKEAWAYS • The United States must overhaul its Indo-Pacific strategy since President Barack Obama’s “rebalance” to Asia has lost momentum. • Persistent shortcomings – insufficient resources, lack...
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Zack Cooper @zackcooper.bsky.social · 11/09/2025
Implication 4: These shifting regional dynamics suggest that nuclear proliferation in Asia is a real and growing risk. If Washington's position in Asia erodes, how would the United States react if some of its allies and partners were to pursue independent nuclear options?
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Zack Cooper @zackcooper.bsky.social · 11/09/2025
Implication 3: As China’s influence in continental Asia grows, the US might embrace an offshore balancing role. If the United States adopts an maritime balancing strategy, what would this imply for US allies and partners (like Thailand and South Korea) on the Asian continent?
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Zack Cooper @zackcooper.bsky.social · 11/09/2025
Implication 2: As Northeast Asian security dominates US engagement, Taiwan will become a litmus test. But if the US disengages outside Northeast Asia and then stands aside on Taiwan, would this effectively erode what is left of the US position across the entire Asian region?
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Zack Cooper @zackcooper.bsky.social · 11/09/2025
Implication 1: As security dominates the economic and governance pillars of US strategy, Northeast Asia is once again dominating Washington’s thinking. Will US leaders support or oppose Asian powers (especially India and Indonesia) playing bigger roles in their sub-regions?
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Zack Cooper @zackcooper.bsky.social · 11/09/2025
What does this mean going forward? Rather than asking whether these constraints can be reversed, observers should start thinking about how US policy and the Indo-Pacific region will adapt. I see four basic implications that raise hard questions for American strategists:
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Zack Cooper @zackcooper.bsky.social · 11/09/2025
Americans must recognize that these three constraints are not primarily about foreign views of Donald Trump. They are more fundamental. They are due to shifting US views and foreign perceptions of America.
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Zack Cooper @zackcooper.bsky.social · 11/09/2025
Constraint 3: Regional trust in the US has eroded, limiting US options and influence. Even close allies are reshaping their engagement with Washington to protect their independence in the face of US pressure and unpredictability.
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Zack Cooper @zackcooper.bsky.social · 11/09/2025
Constraint 2: Washington will not develop and implement a positive economic agenda towards Asia. Both parties abandoned the Trans-Pacific Partnership. Now the United States will be sidelined as regional economic integration accelerates.
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Zack Cooper @zackcooper.bsky.social · 11/09/2025
Constraint 1: Asia will not receive the resources that Asia experts desire (barring a conflict with China). This is due to both America's global responsibilities and the American people’s waning appetite for additional overseas spending/engagement.
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Zack Cooper @zackcooper.bsky.social · 11/09/2025
This is a fundamental change, but it started before Trump. Going forward, US strategy in Asia will face three constraints, which will require us to rethink our whole approach to the region.
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Zack Cooper @zackcooper.bsky.social · 11/09/2025
Now, the Trump administration appears to be refocusing its attention on security in Northeast Asia, boiling US strategy down to: Pillars: ✅ Security ❌ Prosperity ❌ Good governance Sub-regions: ✅ Northeast Asia ❌ Southeast Asia ❌ South Asia ❌ Oceania/Pacific Islands
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Zack Cooper @zackcooper.bsky.social · 11/09/2025
But the rebalance stumbled because Washington was: 1) Distracted and failed to devote sufficient resources to Asia 2) Unable to implement a positive regional trade agenda 3) Too often viewed the rest of the region through the lens of competition with China
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Zack Cooper @zackcooper.bsky.social · 11/09/2025
When it was announced, the rebalance included 3 pillars across 4 sub-regions: Pillars: - Security - Prosperity - Good Governance Sub-Regions: - Northeast Asia - Southeast Asia - South Asia - Oceania/Pacific Islands
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Zack Cooper @zackcooper.bsky.social · 11/09/2025
After 14 years, I think the time has come to acknowledge that the "Rebalance to Asia" has failed. I've spent the last decade writing and thinking about how to make the rebalance successful, so this is a painful realization. A thread on my new piece for RSIS...
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Zack Cooper @zackcooper.bsky.social · 10/09/2025
Is the "Indo-Pacific" dead? 🪦 Today the Pentagon issued a statement labeling the "Asia-Pacific" the priority theater. Coming ahead of the National Defense Strategy release and amidst heightened tensions with India, this will definitely raise some eyebrows!
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Zack Cooper @zackcooper.bsky.social · 05/05/2025
Appreciate the thoughtful book review of Tides of Fortune this weekend in @financialtimes.com. Thanks @jamescrabtree.bsky.social! www.ft.com/content/47d6...
ft.com
China, Russia and the remaking of the Eurasian supercontinent
Three books offer a guide to shifting power in the region and what it means for the US and Europe
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Zack Cooper @zackcooper.bsky.social · 14/04/2025
There will be many remembrances, but if you don’t already know what Rich did in the last days of the Vietnam War, then you should watch this. Wise. Fierce. Courageous. And always a lover of gossip. He was larger than life. Hard to believe he’s gone. www.pbs.org/wgbh/america...
pbs.org
Armitage's Story | American Experience | PBS
In 1975 Richard Armitage was a special forces advisor in Saigon.
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Zack Cooper @zackcooper.bsky.social · 14/04/2025
Today was a tough day. Most mornings the last decade my day started with a phone call from Rich Armitage. But not this morning. Rich was a friend, a mentor, and a business partner. He was my biggest supporter (and sometimes my toughest critic). He was a giant. What a life.
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Zack Cooper @zackcooper.bsky.social · 24/03/2025
🍿
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Zack Cooper @zackcooper.bsky.social · 09/03/2025
Looking forward to joining this RAND event tomorrow on the US-Japan alliance - great lineup! If you’re in Los Angeles (or want to stream), join us here: www.japanhousela.com/events/rand-...
japanhousela.com
The U.S.-Japan Alliance Under New Management
This event brings experts together from the U.S. and Japan to explore the perspectives of both sides to contribute to public understanding of the key issues.
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Zack Cooper @zackcooper.bsky.social · 07/03/2025
Delighted to join so many fantastic scholars as part of the Wilson China Fellowship for the coming year. Thanks to the Wilson Center and Carnegie Corporation for bringing together this great group! www.wilsoncenter.org/article/wils...
wilsoncenter.org
Wilson Center Announces 2025-26 Wilson China Fellowship Class
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Reposted by Zack Cooper
Jenny Town @jennytown.bsky.social · 06/03/2025
Really useful discussion of the core tensions to Trump's foreign policy strategy.
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Zack Cooper @zackcooper.bsky.social · 06/03/2025
Prioritization or Retrenchment? I think this is the central question for the US strategic community today. Here’s my new piece trying to add some historical perspective to this the strategic debate. Read it here: theamericanenterprise.com/the-trump-ad...
theamericanenterprise.com
Trump’s Strategic Choice: Prioritization or Retrenchment
The decision to prioritize China or retreat to the Americas is the central tension for Trump's foreign policy team.
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Zack Cooper @zackcooper.bsky.social · 25/02/2025
I look forward to discussing the book's theory, cases, and implications with friends and colleagues in the weeks and months ahead. Buy it here! yalebooks.yale.edu/book/9780300...
yalebooks.yale.edu
Tides of Fortune
An ambitious look at how the twentieth century’s great powers devised their military strategies and what their implications mean for military competition b...
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Zack Cooper @zackcooper.bsky.social · 25/02/2025
I'm particularly thankful for the generous early reviews from some wonderful scholars and advisors
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Zack Cooper @zackcooper.bsky.social · 25/02/2025
Over the course of this project, I've acquired many debts to supportive friends, mentors, and institutions I can't thank everyone who made this possible, but am so appreciate of your guidance and encouragement
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Zack Cooper @zackcooper.bsky.social · 25/02/2025
Today's the day: Tides of Fortune is officially released! I'm so excited to get to share this book with the world after over a decade of work on this project. We've got a video explainer coming soon, and a bunch of launch events, but for now, a few words of thanks...
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Zack Cooper @zackcooper.bsky.social · 21/02/2025
Good question! Yale has a bunch of links up here, depending on which you prefer: yalebooks.yale.edu/book/9780300...
yalebooks.yale.edu
Tides of Fortune
An ambitious look at how the twentieth century’s great powers devised their military strategies and what their implications mean for military competition b...
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Zack Cooper @zackcooper.bsky.social · 21/02/2025
So the United States has a unique opportunity to counter China's military modernization, if we move smartly and expeditiously. But change is hard and great powers do not have a great track record making meaningful defense reforms absent a major war. [5/5] www.foreignaffairs.com/china/chinas...
foreignaffairs.com
China’s Self-Defeating Strategy
Power projection once made empires—now it can undo them.
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Zack Cooper @zackcooper.bsky.social · 21/02/2025
So China will likely continue to invest in power projection, but face increasing costs/risks in doing so. How should the United States respond? Invest in a three part force mix: 1) Mass (small and cheap systems) 2) Stealth (SSNs and B-21s) 3) Power Projection (CVNs, etc.)
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Zack Cooper @zackcooper.bsky.social · 21/02/2025
But China's embrace of power projection is terribly timed. As the war in Ukraine has shown, the balance between control and denial has shifted. The control-denial balance now favors denial, disadvantaging traditional power projection. This has been underway for 200 years!
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Zack Cooper @zackcooper.bsky.social · 21/02/2025
In Tides of Fortune, I argue that China is following the path of a typical rising power. As Chinese leaders came to view China as strong around 2008, they invested more in power projection. This was inevitable. It is what strong and rising powers do historically.
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Zack Cooper @zackcooper.bsky.social · 21/02/2025
Today in @ForeignAffairs I preview part of my book, which argues that China's turn toward power projection was both inevitable and badly timed (for Beijing). Here's the short version... [1/5] www.foreignaffairs.com/china/chinas...
foreignaffairs.com
China’s Self-Defeating Strategy
Power projection once made empires—now it can undo them.
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Zack Cooper @zackcooper.bsky.social · 18/02/2025
One more week until Tides of Fortune is released! Feels good to finally hold a copy in my hand. So now it is real, but whether it is spectacular will be up to others to judge :) yalebooks.yale.edu/book/9780300...
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