iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

And if you're new here, check out the congressional forecasts or play around with the SENATE SCENARIO BUILDER and PATH TO 218 interactives, where picking winners and losers show you the conditional odds everywhere else. www.solid-purple.com

2026 Midterm Election Forecast — Solid Purple

A confidently uncertain statistical forecast of the 2026 US midterm elections.

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4. Last, and kind of least, you can now view state-by-state estimates of the generic ballot and Presidential approval, in the form of a map or a sortable table. www.solid-purple.com/2026/polls

Generic ballot and presidential approval polling averages, updated daily.

Polls — Solid Purple

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3. But wait, there's more! CROSSTAB DIVER lets you play out any theories you have about the 2026 electorate. Adjust margins and turnout - the model responds by bringing that environment to life. www.solid-purple.com/2026/crossta...

Crosstab Diver — Solid Purple

Every race starts from our forecast. Adjust each demographic group’s share of the vote and watch the environment change.

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2. A new interactive: WISDOM OF THE CROWD. A game of competitive punditry. Submit your own odds and update them throughout the rest of the cycle. At the end, we'll see who is the better forecaster - me, you, or the borg. www.solid-purple.com/2026/crowd

Wisdom of the Crowd — Solid Purple

Set your odds for all 35 Senate races and see how your prediction stacks up against the forecast and readers around the world.

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Now for the fun stuff! Four new features have launched: 1. There is now a Governors forecast! Solid Purple projects Democrats will flip 3 governorships and Republicans will flip one; a net of two pickups for the Ds. www.solid-purple.com/2026/governors

Governors Forecast — Solid Purple

Win chances, projected margins, and ratings for all 36 governor's races in 2026.

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Zach Heltzel @zachheltzel.bsky.social · 11/10/2026

BIG updates to Solid Purple today: MODEL CHANGES 1. Fixed a bug that was causing R/D vs. I polls not to be counted. Dan Osborn (NE-Sen) went from a 7% chance to 22% as a result. 2. I finished incomplete work on modeling ranked-choice voting. Alaska projections changed slightly.

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You can’t say AI anymore. You have to say SI now, because of woke.

Zach Heltzel @zachheltzel.bsky.social · 10/10/2026

how it started / how it’s going

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Zach Heltzel @zachheltzel.bsky.social · 10/10/2026

Honestly I’m rooting for the AI bots, shine on you crazy diamonds

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Zach Heltzel @zachheltzel.bsky.social · 10/10/2026

who's ready to see some really cool shit

Mei 🪽 @meidotwav.bsky.social · 02/09/2026

Reposted by Zach Heltzel

treat your body like a data center. consume as much water, art and literature as possible. upset local municipalities with your existence.

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Zach Heltzel @zachheltzel.bsky.social · 08/10/2026

It’s cornball nonsense! Thank goodness Rian Johnson came along to put it all into a beautiful context of myth and legend. *dodges a tomato*

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Zach Heltzel @zachheltzel.bsky.social · 08/10/2026

There’s something so chic about making a movie that loses a quarter of a billion dollars. Like who let you do that?

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Eva Marie Saint taught me it was okay to be weird

shauna @goldengateblond.bsky.social · 05/10/2026

“It’s a D+10 environment and polls are likely overstating them in the whiter rural parts of the Midwest.” is an entirely coherent theory and should not surprise anyone if it happens.

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Reposted by Zach Heltzel

“every time someone is sleeping on a subway bench in a city, the rest of america can sort of say ‘ugh, look at these cities.’ but we are holding a lot of your people who you failed to love and take care of.” 👏 👏 👏

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jamelle @jamellebouie.net · 05/10/2026

“Eat shit and live, Bill.” makes it an automatic five-bagger imo

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Reposted by Zach Heltzel

in a just world someone would stone cold stun these guys into concrete

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Zach Heltzel @zachheltzel.bsky.social · 05/10/2026

It rules how he can say this about me and millions of other Americans but if any of us say this about him, federal agents will knock on our doors.

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As someone who used to have a longform podcast sometimes you just say dumb shit that if someone said it back to you you’d disagree with yourself

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Zach Heltzel @zachheltzel.bsky.social · 05/10/2026

tfw it’s been 100 degrees in LA for a week straight and your apartment doesn’t have air conditioning

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Zach Heltzel @zachheltzel.bsky.social · 05/10/2026

Dennis Hastert taught me it was okay to you know what nah

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Reposted by Zach Heltzel

Brock Wilbur @brockwilbur.bsky.social · 05/10/2026

first brisk morning of the year and I went for a @bencollins.bsky.social Sicko shirt from the clothing pile, put a @zachheltzel.bsky.social Waluigi hoodie atop and I’m realizing only now my wardrobe is Online Poisoned beyond redemption. do I even own a suit? is my only sweater Malört themed?

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Zach Heltzel @zachheltzel.bsky.social · 03/10/2026

I respectfully have to disagree. We’ve basically solved software compatibility. I can make any old CD-ROM I have work on just about anything I put it into. Useless to most people, very useful to me specifically.

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Zach Heltzel @zachheltzel.bsky.social · 03/10/2026

Have you seen the sudden explosion in the game modding / emulation space? It’s completely insane. The vast majority of people wouldn’t know where to begin on using AI for that purpose.

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Zach Heltzel @zachheltzel.bsky.social · 03/10/2026

What I see as the fundamental problem with AI as a consumer-facing business is that they only know how to make this stuff useful for computer people. Like it's super fucking good at the things computer people think are important. Most people aren't computer people.

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Zach Heltzel @zachheltzel.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

Takes a lot when the fundamentals are stacked against you

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Zach Heltzel @zachheltzel.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

Man the Senate map is funny as hell right now

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Zach Heltzel @zachheltzel.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

At this point my "type" is just literally anyone who I'm not absolutely terrified will betray me or otherwise get the "ick" in some way.

It’s too bad they used AI because otherwise I was so excited to see the Pete Davidson / Gal Gadot movie about Bitcoin.

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Human beings can use generative AI to make art. The reason almost all AI art sucks is because the people using it suck at making art. Meanwhile, artists who don’t suck at making art don’t want or need to use it.

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Oh shit. The whole bribery thing helps Susan Collins. Voters think that’s her bringing the bacon back to Maine.

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Zach Heltzel @zachheltzel.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

He introduced his sister to her husband. Matt Gaetz.

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Worst game of fuck marry kill ever

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Zach Heltzel @zachheltzel.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

Actually, Johnny Tsunami is the name of the grandfather.

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Zach Heltzel @zachheltzel.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

Want to see what an election forecast would say if we knew for sure that Texas goes blue and Republicans somehow win Minnesota? www.solid-purple.com/2026/scenari...