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Yan Qin

@yanqin.bsky.social
736 followers 1.4K following 831 posts

Carbon analyst at ClearBlue Markets, Research Associate at OIES, China energy analyst living in Oslo 🇳🇴, 🇨🇦🇳🇱 |EnergyTransition•SustainableFuels•SupplyChain #carbonsky #energysky

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Yan Qin @yanqin.bsky.social · 09/10/2026
The project also reflects what I value most in my work as a modeler: building transparent, testable frameworks for a market shaped by both economic fundamentals and policy, and assessing carefully what the data can and cannot support. Paper: doi.org/10.1016/j.je...
doi.org
Redirecting
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Yan Qin @yanqin.bsky.social · 09/10/2026
📢 I am delighted to have published an academic paper, “Forecasting the Price of Carbon with Macroeconomic and Financial Variables”, in the Journal of Economic Dynamics & Control, co-authored with researchers at University of Milan
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Yan Qin @yanqin.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
Intraday price swings also intensified in renewable-heavy markets like Shanxi, where prices plunged to a midday trough of 95 RMB(€12.6) at 12:00 before surging to an evening peak of 592 RMB (~€78.6) at 18:00—a massive intraday spread of 497 RMB
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Yan Qin @yanqin.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
Robust power demand sustains elevated price levels across major consumption centers: Central, Southwest, and South China, while abundant low-marginal-cost generation—specifically Northwest wind and solar bases alongside Sichuan hydropower—keeps spot prices suppressed in resource-rich supply regions
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Yan Qin @yanqin.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
Source: mp.weixin.qq.com/s/rgAaUtP-cn...
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Yan Qin @yanqin.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
⚡Data on China spot power prices, in September National average: 317 RMB/MWh (~€42.1) Key demand centers recorded the highest averages: *Henan at 484 RMB/MWh (~€64.3) *Guizhou at 477 RMB/MWh (~€63.3) *Guangdong at 460 RMB/MWh (~€61.1)
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Reposted by Yan Qin
Jan Rosenow @janrosenow.bsky.social · 08/09/2026
NEW RESEARCH: Europe has spent decades worrying about how to keep buildings warm. The harder question now is how to keep them cool. Today I'm publishing a new briefing on Europe's cooling challenge and how to solve it. The numbers are concerning but the solutions exist. A 🧵
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Catherine Wolfram @cwolfram.bsky.social · 04/09/2026
New paper in @science.org: As of 2025, 80 carbon-pricing instruments were in place across 50 jurisdictions. By coordinating across systems, we can increase emission reductions and avoid trade barriers from a profusion of different border adjustments. www.science.org/doi/10.1126/...
science.org
Building a scalable climate coalition for heavy industry
Emissions could be reduced, with minimal impact on production, while generating billions in public revenues
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Yan Qin @yanqin.bsky.social · 03/09/2026
China ETS allocation plan for Power (2025-2026) and Industry (2026) www.cets.org.cn/tzgg/7451.jh... Check out this comprehensive slidedeck by the ETS regulator unpacking the allocation plan: mp.weixin.qq.com/s/SeUl1CLea5...
cets.org.cn
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Yan Qin @yanqin.bsky.social · 03/09/2026
For the industrial sectors, it maintained the 2025 allocation method that keeping total sector' allocation equal to emissions, whilst rewarding or punishing each enterprises allocation by 3% depending on their carbon intensity vs sector balance value
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Yan Qin @yanqin.bsky.social · 03/09/2026
This is in line with the public consultation version, but softer than the earlier internal version. The final version is a compromise after pushbacks from the power industry. Coal generators successfully framed the issue around grid stability
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Yan Qin @yanqin.bsky.social · 03/09/2026
China issued the latest ETS allocation plan for Power and 3 industrial sectors on 3 September, long-awaited by the Carbon market participants For the coal-fired power plants, the benchmarks will continue to be tightened for the 2025 and 2026 allocation (-0.1% yoy, following a 0.5% drop in 2024)
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Yan Qin @yanqin.bsky.social · 03/09/2026
Happy to share my latest post on the EU Carbon market development (so far) in 2026 published in RiEnergia rienergia.staffettaonline.com/articolo/360... Check also the full edition for insightful comments on energy markets (Gas Oil Electricity) rienergia.staffettaonline.com
rienergia.staffettaonline.com
Il prezzo del carbonio alla prova della regolazione
Un periodo turbolento per l’ETS
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Yan Qin @yanqin.bsky.social · 02/09/2026
Hence, these industrial sectors are currently facing negligible actual carbon costs in practice, despite being included in China national ETS since 2025. China ETS 2025 balance values: www.cets.org.cn/tzgg/7450.jh... China ETS 2025 allocation plan for industrials: www.mee.gov.cn/xxgk2018/xxg...
cets.org.cn
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Yan Qin @yanqin.bsky.social · 02/09/2026
This converts allowance distribution into a redistribution mechanism designed to reward front-runners and penalize laggards without imposing an immediate net deficit on the industry as a whole. In fact, considering the 5% CCER usage limit for ETS compliance, this rule results in slight surplus.
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Yan Qin @yanqin.bsky.social · 02/09/2026
+3% if its emission intensity is 20% below balance values, or -3% if above The regulator keeps the total emissions and total allowances equal for each industrial sector for the compliance year 2025.
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Yan Qin @yanqin.bsky.social · 02/09/2026
Each industrial enterprises' allocation for 2025 will be determined by 'the % deviation of its emissions per tonne of product in main processes from the sector's balancing values'. Those with lower emission intensity than the balance values will be rewarded with more allowances
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Yan Qin @yanqin.bsky.social · 02/09/2026
⚖️ China carbon market regulator issued key parameters determining the number of allowances to the three industrial sectors for 2025 ETS compliance Balance Value is the carbon intensity of key processes when the total allowances handed out for 2025 equals the total allowances to be surrendered.
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Reposted by Yan Qin
Zia Weise @ziaweise.bsky.social · 02/09/2026
European governments are planning to fight climate change with a major expansion of nuclear power. Global warming, however, is fighting back. On Europe's hot nuclear summer, w/ @nicolascamut.bsky.social & @elenagiordano.bsky.social: www.politico.eu/article/clim...
politico.eu
How climate change threatens Europe’s nuclear renaissance
Europe’s nuclear fleet feels the heat from rising temperatures.
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Yan Qin @yanqin.bsky.social · 01/09/2026
new IMF working paper Macroeconomic Impacts of China’s Energy Transition www.imf.org/en/publicati... It also uses data from CETO2024 report www.cet.energy/category/rep...
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Financial Times @financialtimes.com · 26/08/2026
El Niño’s looming threat to the global food system ft.trib.al/1j6jJoX | opinion
ft.trib.al
El Niño’s looming threat to the global food system
The world must be better prepared for big recurring shocks to agriculture
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Yan Qin @yanqin.bsky.social · 24/08/2026
Interesting EU MACC in this new EPICO report analysing 128 decarbonisation measures across the energy supply, buildings, transport and industrial sectors epico.org/en/the-new-e...
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Yan Qin @yanqin.bsky.social · 21/08/2026
The new power system has become a typical open, complex, and massive system. Energy, environment, and economy are interconnected; information, physical, and social aspects are coupled. mp.weixin.qq.com/s/xwVl5-pQ_4...
mp.weixin.qq.com
专访薛禹胜院士:“AI+WRT”协同破解新型电力系统海量不确定性
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Yan Qin @yanqin.bsky.social · 21/08/2026
This high-level forum also provided me the opportunity to deepen my understanding of Academician Yusheng Xue's CPSS-EEE and AI + WRI theory, and I greatly benefited from his personal guidance on my current research. 'Whole Reductionism Thinking'
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Yan Qin @yanqin.bsky.social · 21/08/2026
This annual event remains a crucial gathering for distinguished China power experts focusing on 'Construction of New Power Systems and New Energy Systems.' mp.weixin.qq.com/s/RzoOQjGcAl...
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Yan Qin @yanqin.bsky.social · 21/08/2026
💡 Modelling multiple uncertainties in #Power #Carbon Markets On 16 August, I was truly honored to be invited to present my work at the 11th Purple Mountain Forum in Nanjing in China. Organized by the STATE GRID Electric Power Research Institute (NARI Group)
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Finbarr Bermingham @fbermingham.bsky.social · 21/08/2026
New from me - The Mistral paradox: Europe’s push for tech sovereignty relies on China’s AI What one quiet line says about Europe's duelling political and commercial incentives
scmp.com
The Mistral paradox: Europe’s push for tech sovereignty relies on China’s Z.ai
AI race contender’s decision to offer GL-5.2 a sign of how European political and commercial incentives can pull in different directions.
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Yan Qin @yanqin.bsky.social · 21/08/2026
China is considering a proposal to host the annual United Nations climate summit in 2028, a move that would signal the country’s intent to show greater global leadership on the issue #COP www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
bloomberg.com
China Said to Weigh Potential Bid to Host 2028 UN Climate Summit
China is considering a proposal to host the annual United Nations climate summit in 2028, a move that would signal the country’s intent to show greater global leadership on the issue.
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Yan Qin @yanqin.bsky.social · 20/08/2026
While the drop in trade value aligns chronologically with CBAM entering its definitive phase, the authors emphasize that the decline may be driven by multiple macroeconomic factors and cannot be attributed solely to CBAM. Link to the Post mp.weixin.qq.com/s/5a32KsOh-8...
mp.weixin.qq.com
CBAM对上半年的中国出口影响几何?看看欧盟的统计数据
首先,我们一直强调,目前CBAM影响中国的就是钢铝行业。2026年上半年,在欧盟从中国进口的CBAM产品中,钢铁占79.7%,铝占19.4%,合计99.1%,化肥和水泥加起来只占0.9%。氢的对欧出口更是接近于零,半年只有一笔180欧元的交易。
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Yan Qin @yanqin.bsky.social · 20/08/2026
Impacts of EU CBAM on Chinese exports? Tsinghua TianGong researchers analyzed the Eurostat customs data Chinese Steel & Aluminium exports to the EU fell 4.7% in H1 2026 vs 2025, but still held up better than global (-10.8%)
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Yan Qin @yanqin.bsky.social · 17/08/2026
-Natural Gas Storage capacity above13% of total national gas consumption -LNG Receiving Capacity reaches 200 million metric tons per year -Pipeline Imports capacity of 114 bcm per year - #CCS/ #CCUS: annual CO₂ injection volume of 10 million metric tons
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Yan Qin @yanqin.bsky.social · 17/08/2026
2030 targets: -Domestic Oil & Gas Supply: Reach 440 million metric tons of oil equivalent -Pipeline Infrastructure: Add 20,000 km of new long-distance pipelines, expanding the total national network scale to 220,000 km
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Yan Qin @yanqin.bsky.social · 17/08/2026
🛢️China issued 15th Five-Year Plan (2026-2030) for Oil and Gas Development #OOTT It sets out key targets for 2030 including gas storage etc. and a list of major oil and gas pipelines projects www.ndrc.gov.cn/xxgk/zcfb/tz...
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Yan Qin @yanqin.bsky.social · 12/08/2026
China energy transition trip 🚂
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Reposted by Yan Qin
Carbon Brief @carbonbrief.org · 06/08/2026
NEW – Q&A: What is in China’s new five-year plan for climate change? | Lekai Liu w/ comment from Qin Yan and @yanqin.bsky.social Read here: buff.ly/Lx2PT5t
A mining facility in the Huaneng Yimin open-pit coal mine in China’s Inner Mongolia province. Credit: Ng Han Guan / Alamy Stock Photo
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Yan Qin @yanqin.bsky.social · 05/08/2026
Greetings from China :) just arrived this morning. I think the targets are set in a conservative way and most likely be met. A lot of experts point out that the highlight of this electricity plan is the emphasis on “improve system flexibility to integrate more renewables”
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Yan Qin @yanqin.bsky.social · 03/08/2026
⚡ China Unveils 15th Five-Year Plan for the construction of New Power System As a roadmap for the next five years, this plan sets a strategic target of 'initially establishing a new, modern power system by 2030' and specific targets too www.ndrc.gov.cn/xxgk/zcfb/tz...
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Bloomberg News @bloomberg.com · 01/08/2026
Climate change is making “fire weather” more common, and more extreme
bloom.bg
The Age of Unstoppable Wildfires Has Reached Europe
Climate change means giant fires of the kind that ripped across France and Spain are becoming common, with potentially dire consequences for Europe’s economies.
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Reposted by Yan Qin
Michael Pettis @michaelpettis.bsky.social · 01/08/2026
1/5 SCMP: "After blanketing the country in railways, expressways, airports and seagoing canals to reach a 91 per cent completion rate, the push for the next 4 percentage points raises questions for the world’s second-largest... sc.mp/134hm?utm_so...
sc.mp
How much transport is enough? China eyes 95% coverage across its record network
Beijing aims to expand nation’s world-leading network coverage, raising questions over need for more infrastructure projects as authorities flag ‘weak links’.
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Yan Qin @yanqin.bsky.social · 31/07/2026
On 31 July, China State Council approved 8 new nuclear power plant units (4 projects) #HualongOne mp.weixin.qq.com/s/VWOAq9EIXc...
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Yan Qin @yanqin.bsky.social · 29/07/2026
link to news in May on Open coalition climate.ec.europa.eu/news-other-r...
climate.ec.europa.eu
EU, Brazil and China launch open coalition to boost integrity and effectiveness of carbon markets
The EU, Brazil and China have launched a new international coalition to strengthen the integrity, transparency and effectiveness of carbon markets worldwide, boosting global cooperation on carbon pric...
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Yan Qin @yanqin.bsky.social · 29/07/2026
🌳 China to expand the international influence of its #Carbon market. The 2026 China Carbon Market Conference will take place on 15 September, as which the work plan on Open Coalition on Compliance Carbon Markets will be adopted.
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Yan Qin @yanqin.bsky.social · 29/07/2026
China plans to take a more important role in the global campaign to tackle climate change, according to a 15th five-year plan published by key agencies. www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
bloomberg.com
China Signals Nation Is Ready to Lead Global Climate Action
China signaled it plans to take a more important role in steering the global campaign to tackle climate change, as officials offered further details on strategy to mitigate and adapt to rising tempera...
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Yan Qin @yanqin.bsky.social · 29/07/2026
link www.mee.gov.cn/xxgk2018/xxg...
mee.gov.cn
关于印发《国家应对气候变化“十五五”规划》的通知
中华人民共和国生态环境部
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Yan Qin @yanqin.bsky.social · 29/07/2026
China released National 15th Five-Year Plan for Addressing Climate Change by the Ministry of Ecology and Environment, jointly with 18 (!) other ministries, highlighting that climate change governance has been elevated to an unprecedented strategic level
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Yan Qin @yanqin.bsky.social · 28/07/2026
📑 State of the Global Carbon Markets: Q2 2026 www.clearbluemarkets.com/download-q2-...
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Yan Qin @yanqin.bsky.social · 27/07/2026
Then I am not surprised by the loosening of allocation rules as thermal power producers have been complaining that their coal/gas units have been running inefficiently and incurred higher emission intensity due to variable renewables generation.
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Yan Qin @yanqin.bsky.social · 27/07/2026
💡 My thoughts: This illustrates the need for China ETS to transit from the current intensity-based scheme to one with Absolute Cap (which does not necessarily decline, but important to have an overall Cap), which is also in line with the economy wide Carbon Dual Control.
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Yan Qin @yanqin.bsky.social · 27/07/2026
The explainer said 'the proposed benchmarks take into account the affordability of thermal power generators', as well as the 'support the broader 15th FYP target of achieving an approximate 3% reduction in carbon intensity per unit of product across ETS-covered sectors '
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Yan Qin @yanqin.bsky.social · 27/07/2026
The latest draft, released on 27 July for public consultation, now proposes a 2025 allocation benchmark of 0.7902 t CO2/MWh for large coal fired power plant, only 0.1% lower than the 2024 benchmark. This is much less than May draft's proposed 2025 benchmark of 0.7843 (-0.85%)
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