iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

Jonathan Erdman @wxjerdman.bsky.social · 6h

Looking forward to tonight's ALCS Game 4, if anything to see the adventure each fly ball may be given strong north winds in Cleveland, much less any chance of showers.

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Jonathan Erdman @wxjerdman.bsky.social · 10h

Soon to be Typhoon Champi forecast to rapidly intensify as it tracks near or over Guam this weekend.

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Jonathan Erdman @wxjerdman.bsky.social · 10h

In addition to some "first frosts & freezes" for some in the Midwest and Northeast this weekend, some record cold highs Saturday in upstate New York & the Champlain Valley. Bundle up if you're leaf peeping this weekend.

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Jonathan Erdman @wxjerdman.bsky.social · 15/10/2026

100% would buy one of these shirts. Is there anyone else most deserving of #mlb comeback player of the year? #thisismycrew #brewtober

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Jonathan Erdman @wxjerdman.bsky.social · 12/10/2026

Only 6 times since 1872 has the Twin Cities reached 90˚ in October. Two of those times were both days this past weekend, including their record latest in fall 90˚ high. Par for the course in what has been America's record warmest year-to-date in 132 years.

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Jonathan Erdman @wxjerdman.bsky.social · 08/10/2026

Peeking under the central dense overcast, microwave satellite imagery allows us to see Isaias' core. These images were taken this AM. Credit: NOAA/CIRA

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Jonathan Erdman @wxjerdman.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

Some "first frosts/freezes" early next week in the Great Lakes and interior Northeast. Welcome to October!

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Jonathan Erdman @wxjerdman.bsky.social · 26/09/2026

You know it's a strong El Niño when season-to-date ACE in the eastern half of the Pacific has now exceeded that of the western Pacific.

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Jonathan Erdman @wxjerdman.bsky.social · 26/09/2026

NWS is forecasting the highest storm tide of the nor'easter in about an hour or so, from the Jersey shore to the northern Outer Banks.

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Jonathan Erdman @wxjerdman.bsky.social · 25/09/2026

Parts of the Virginia Tidewater have already seen at least minor coastal flooding (in MLLW, per NWS site) for 5 high tides through Friday AM. Four more high tide cycles to go with this nor'easter at least through Sunday AM.

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Jonathan Erdman @wxjerdman.bsky.social · 25/09/2026

Not every day you see a mention of rainfall flood threat from an active tropical storm in an NHC forecast for parts of western Africa (though tropical waves can dump heavy rain). Not too many NNW'ward tracks just off Africa in the NOAA database, either, for "Cabo Gonzalo".

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Jonathan Erdman @wxjerdman.bsky.social · 23/09/2026

History in the making? NOAA's database has only one other Cat. 3+ hurricane within 150 miles (statute) of Hawaii's Big Island: August 1959's Dot. Your move, Nolo.

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Jonathan Erdman @wxjerdman.bsky.social · 22/09/2026

Certainly not the only reason, but there is a deep, warm "bubble" of ocean water near where Hurricane Polo rapidly intensified, per this CIRA analysis.

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Jonathan Erdman @wxjerdman.bsky.social · 17/09/2026

Through Wednesday, Dallas-Ft. Worth tallied 13 straight days with highs of 100˚ or hotter. By far the longest such streak entirely in Sept. in their recorded history. Most prior streaks have been a July or August thing, there.

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Jonathan Erdman @wxjerdman.bsky.social · 16/09/2026

Record hottest first half of September tied or set for almost four dozen major reporting stations from the central and southern Rockies to the Southeast. Includes Austin, Dallas, Denver and Nashville. (Data: SERCC)

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Jonathan Erdman @wxjerdman.bsky.social · 15/09/2026

We've arrived in the middle of September. Average Atlantic season hurricane pace this week: 4 2026 Atlantic hurricane count, so far: 0

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Jonathan Erdman @wxjerdman.bsky.social · 09/09/2026

Heads up to those visiting Glacier and Yellowstone NPs this weekend. Some snow is possible generally above 7,000 feet elevation. Otherwise, a chilly rain at lower elevations.

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Jonathan Erdman @wxjerdman.bsky.social · 03/09/2026

The multi-model ensemble mean trend for Hurricane Lowell continues. This loop from @burgwx.bsky.social shows the last six runs, starting with Monday morning's run in yellow, to the most recent run in white. Interests in the W. Hawaiian islands need to monitor the forecast closely.

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Jonathan Erdman @wxjerdman.bsky.social · 02/09/2026

Hurricane Lowell now analyzed at Cat. 5 intensity as of 18Z best track estimate. Estimated 927 mb pressure nearly matches strongest of 2026 so far (Genevieve was 925 mb at peak). Images: @cyclonicwx.bsky.social

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Jonathan Erdman @wxjerdman.bsky.social · 27/08/2026

Today makes 2 weeks since Lala first formed. Almost made it to the Int'l Dateline. Today will make at least 61 main forecast advisories from NHC, and other intermediates when it was near Hawaii.

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Jonathan Erdman @wxjerdman.bsky.social · 26/08/2026

We see this sometimes in hurricane season. Hostile conditions farther east, but then more favorable conditions (esp. lower wind shear) farther west. May have to watch the Bermuda Triangle later next week with current "96L". And despite El Niño, it will be early September. 🧐

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Jonathan Erdman @wxjerdman.bsky.social · 24/08/2026

Can't wait for fall? Some frosts and freezes this AM in the U.P., northern Wisconsin and Minnesota's Arrowhead. 🥶

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Jonathan Erdman @wxjerdman.bsky.social · 21/08/2026

Weird NHC Atlantic 7-day tropical outlook for August 21 featuring 2 areas in subtropics and zilch in the Niño-squashed main development region.

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Jonathan Erdman @wxjerdman.bsky.social · 21/08/2026

Can't wait for fall? How about a weekend in the northern Great Lakes? 🍂

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Jonathan Erdman @wxjerdman.bsky.social · 19/08/2026

Invest 90E is starting to consolidate its convection and is increasingly likely to become the next tropical storm in the next few days. Question is how close does it track to the Big Island of Hawaii Sunday, still recovering from Lala's destructive flash flooding last weekend.

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Jonathan Erdman @wxjerdman.bsky.social · 14/08/2026

Welp...unless there's a drastic, unanticipated change, the score appears to be: - El Niño: 2 - Main development region: 0

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Jonathan Erdman @wxjerdman.bsky.social · 14/08/2026

It's not every day you see the nation's high temperature in Kansas. 113˚ in Medicine Lodge, near the Oklahoma border. Also some 110s in northwest Oklahoma, per OK mesonet. Oh...and Utqiagvik, AK (America's northernmost town) had a daily record high (70˚).

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Jonathan Erdman @wxjerdman.bsky.social · 14/08/2026

Update: The White River at Anderson, IN obliterated its 1913 record crest by over a foot.

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Jonathan Erdman @wxjerdman.bsky.social · 13/08/2026

The White River at Anderson, IN is forecast to crest at its highest level since the March 1913 flood, about 13 feet above flood stage. And more rain is possible tonight, perhaps again Friday and Saturday. 😲

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Jonathan Erdman @wxjerdman.bsky.social · 13/08/2026

Over the past 48 hours, it appears eastern Indiana was hit by 5 separate rounds of t-storm clusters. No wonder the flooding.

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Jonathan Erdman @wxjerdman.bsky.social · 11/08/2026

Latest weekly rONI OISST values show our current El Niño has now leapfrogged 1997's El Niño pace. Unlike the other super Niños, we were in a La Niña less than 5 months ago.

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Jonathan Erdman @wxjerdman.bsky.social · 10/08/2026

Interesting battle between some of the physics-based models and AI models regarding future #Lala and Hawaii this weekend. Good test for Google DeepMind.

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Jonathan Erdman @wxjerdman.bsky.social · 05/08/2026

The snoozing Atlantic hurricane season is off to its slowest start (by ACE index) in 17 years. 2009 had its first storm, then a major hurricane in mid-August.

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Jonathan Erdman @wxjerdman.bsky.social · 04/08/2026

Interesting to see the still relatively high PM10 levels in Phoenix this morning following last night's haboob. Could be more blowing dust (another haboob) this evening?

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Jonathan Erdman @wxjerdman.bsky.social · 30/07/2026

All the "1s" on this map from the SERCC show cities with their hottest year-to-date, or a tie through late July. Includes: Phoenix, Las Vegas and Salt Lake City.

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Jonathan Erdman @wxjerdman.bsky.social · 28/07/2026

NWS-Green Bay rated the Appleton-Menasha tornado a preliminary EF3, with maximum estimated winds of 140 mph. Since 1950, per NCEI storm events database, that's only the 4th tornado rated F/EF3+ in either Outagamie or Winnebago Counties. The last one, there, was April 27, 1984.

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Jonathan Erdman @wxjerdman.bsky.social · 27/07/2026

Fans at Lambeau Field for today's Packers annual shareholder meeting should pay close attention to the weather. A line of severe t-storms could head toward Green Bay in about an hour. Listen to directions of Lambeau Field staff and seek shelter if those storms move in.

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Jonathan Erdman @wxjerdman.bsky.social · 27/07/2026

After Genevieve briefly hit Cat. 5 earlier this AM, looks like Tropical Storm Dolphin is forecast to become the week's second Cat. 5 near Wake Island in a few days. Dolphin could have an interesting future later next week. 👀 (Model forecast: @tropicaltidbits.bsky.social)

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Jonathan Erdman @wxjerdman.bsky.social · 23/07/2026

RRFS near-surface smoke forecast for this weekend, for now, doesn't look anywhere near as ominous as last week's event.

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Jonathan Erdman @wxjerdman.bsky.social · 22/07/2026

Three weeks of July in the books, and it has been among the top 10 hottest on record from Florida to parts of the Northeast, Great Lakes and N. Plains. Hottest: Elkins, WV; Marquette, MI (tie) and Rapid City, SD. Data: SERCC

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Jonathan Erdman @wxjerdman.bsky.social · 22/07/2026

It's not as lame, but I'm getting some T.S. Don 2011 vibes with Bertha right now.

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Jonathan Erdman @wxjerdman.bsky.social · 22/07/2026

The shear that saved the Gulf Coast from what could have been a potentially stronger Bertha, as seen by satellite this AM. 🛰️: CIRA, NOAA

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Jonathan Erdman @wxjerdman.bsky.social · 21/07/2026

2026 Atlantic hurricane season-to-date: Lopsided, sheared Gulf tropical storms: 2 Caribbean shear: very high That's it, so far.

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Jonathan Erdman @wxjerdman.bsky.social · 17/07/2026

We're now halfway through "meteorological summer" (June-August). Boston, Providence, W. Palm, Ft. Lauderdale and Sarasota have had their warmest first half of any "meteorological summer", per SERCC.

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Jonathan Erdman @wxjerdman.bsky.social · 17/07/2026

Smoke outlook: - Some improvement later today in upper Midwest. - T-storm threat could clean air in Northeast tomorrow - Second, third waves of smoke this weekend, then Tue-Thu. - That "third wave" could -> parts of South.

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Jonathan Erdman @wxjerdman.bsky.social · 16/07/2026

Multiple flood waves along the Guadalupe River in Texas. Reminds me of an eyewall, then eye, then other side of the eyewall.

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Jonathan Erdman @wxjerdman.bsky.social · 16/07/2026

Now the third highest flood level on record along the Guadalupe River at Comfort, TX. About 1.5 feet above the July 4, 2025, crest, there, and behind only the floods of 1869 and 1978.

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Jonathan Erdman @wxjerdman.bsky.social · 16/07/2026

FWIW, NASA's GEOS model is forecasting two more southward plunges of wildfire smoke: 1) This weekend 2) Next Tue-Thu The second one could at least bring some surface smoke into parts of the South.

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Jonathan Erdman @wxjerdman.bsky.social · 16/07/2026

A morning sunrise here in the Milwaukee suburbs more along the lines of what I saw in a trip to Beijing over 10 years ago. #Codepurple #coughcough

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Jonathan Erdman @wxjerdman.bsky.social · 15/07/2026

This smoke episode the next couple of days won't be the only one. With NW flow aloft forecast to be reinforced in the E. US, we could see another smoke episode this weekend, then again next week. It's a "catch 22" we've seen in recent summers. Heat relief, but smoke-tapping pattern.

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