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Jonathan Erdman

@wxjerdman.bsky.social
1.7K followers 361 following 1K posts

Senior meteorologist @weatherchannel. M.S. Colorado State Univ.; B.S. UW-Madison; Insightful. Interesting. Impactful. Weather. Opinions are mine only, not of my employer.

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Jonathan Erdman @wxjerdman.bsky.social · 7h
Some "first frosts/freezes" early next week in the Great Lakes and interior Northeast. Welcome to October!
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Jonathan Erdman @wxjerdman.bsky.social · 26/09/2026
We're already over two weeks beyond the previous record longest wait for the first Atlantic hurricane of the season. Now with both Fay and Gonzalo on the struggle bus, it looks like we'll have a rare "0 for September" for Atlantic hurricanes.
weather.com
Rare Atlantic September hurricane shutout appears likely
We expected the Atlantic hurricane season to be quieter than usual, due to a strong El Niño. But a quiet September is unusual.
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Jonathan Erdman @wxjerdman.bsky.social · 26/09/2026
You know it's a strong El Niño when season-to-date ACE in the eastern half of the Pacific has now exceeded that of the western Pacific.
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Jonathan Erdman @wxjerdman.bsky.social · 26/09/2026
NWS is forecasting the highest storm tide of the nor'easter in about an hour or so, from the Jersey shore to the northern Outer Banks.
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Jonathan Erdman @wxjerdman.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
Parts of the Virginia Tidewater have already seen at least minor coastal flooding (in MLLW, per NWS site) for 5 high tides through Friday AM. Four more high tide cycles to go with this nor'easter at least through Sunday AM.
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Jonathan Erdman @wxjerdman.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
Not every day you see a mention of rainfall flood threat from an active tropical storm in an NHC forecast for parts of western Africa (though tropical waves can dump heavy rain). Not too many NNW'ward tracks just off Africa in the NOAA database, either, for "Cabo Gonzalo".
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Jonathan Erdman @wxjerdman.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
History in the making? NOAA's database has only one other Cat. 3+ hurricane within 150 miles (statute) of Hawaii's Big Island: August 1959's Dot. Your move, Nolo.
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Jonathan Erdman @wxjerdman.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
Certainly not the only reason, but there is a deep, warm "bubble" of ocean water near where Hurricane Polo rapidly intensified, per this CIRA analysis.
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Jonathan Erdman @wxjerdman.bsky.social · 18/09/2026
With an El Niño as strong as this, there are some things to keep in mind as you plan your winter getaway travel.
weather.com
How super El Niño could impact your winter getaway travel
If you usually escape winter weather where you live, or can't wait to hit the slopes, a record-strong El Niño could make your trip a little different this year.
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Jonathan Erdman @wxjerdman.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
Through Wednesday, Dallas-Ft. Worth tallied 13 straight days with highs of 100˚ or hotter. By far the longest such streak entirely in Sept. in their recorded history. Most prior streaks have been a July or August thing, there.
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Jonathan Erdman @wxjerdman.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
Record hottest first half of September tied or set for almost four dozen major reporting stations from the central and southern Rockies to the Southeast. Includes Austin, Dallas, Denver and Nashville. (Data: SERCC)
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Jonathan Erdman @wxjerdman.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
We've arrived in the middle of September. Average Atlantic season hurricane pace this week: 4 2026 Atlantic hurricane count, so far: 0
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Jonathan Erdman @wxjerdman.bsky.social · 11/09/2026
The season's NFL schedule is the most potentially weather compelling I've seen in years. My potential favorite games👇
weather.com
These NFL Games May Have The Most Interesting Weather
These are the NFL games in 2026-27 that caught a meteorologist's eye the most.
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Jonathan Erdman @wxjerdman.bsky.social · 10/09/2026
Record low Atlantic ACE pace in satellite era is more typical of the second week of July, not second week of September. Only 2 Atlantic seasons since WWII have failed to produce a single September hurricane. Perspective on the slumbering 👇
weather.com
Atlantic hurricane season peak: a record hurricane delay
The second week of September has typically been the most active time of hurricane season. But this year's map is blank. And it has El Niño written all over it.
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Jonathan Erdman @wxjerdman.bsky.social · 09/09/2026
Heads up to those visiting Glacier and Yellowstone NPs this weekend. Some snow is possible generally above 7,000 feet elevation. Otherwise, a chilly rain at lower elevations.
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Jonathan Erdman @wxjerdman.bsky.social · 04/09/2026
In the era satellites have fully covered the Atlantic Basin, we haven't seen as quiet a start as 2026. Thanks, El Niño.
weather.com
Atlantic hurricane season's least active start in 60 years
We've had five tropical storms, but they've been short-lived. The total activity is now at its lowest in the satellite era through early September, thanks to El Niño.
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Jonathan Erdman @wxjerdman.bsky.social · 03/09/2026
The multi-model ensemble mean trend for Hurricane Lowell continues. This loop from @burgwx.bsky.social shows the last six runs, starting with Monday morning's run in yellow, to the most recent run in white. Interests in the W. Hawaiian islands need to monitor the forecast closely.
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Jonathan Erdman @wxjerdman.bsky.social · 02/09/2026
Hurricane Lowell now analyzed at Cat. 5 intensity as of 18Z best track estimate. Estimated 927 mb pressure nearly matches strongest of 2026 so far (Genevieve was 925 mb at peak). Images: @cyclonicwx.bsky.social
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Jonathan Erdman @wxjerdman.bsky.social · 27/08/2026
Today makes 2 weeks since Lala first formed. Almost made it to the Int'l Dateline. Today will make at least 61 main forecast advisories from NHC, and other intermediates when it was near Hawaii.
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Jonathan Erdman @wxjerdman.bsky.social · 26/08/2026
We see this sometimes in hurricane season. Hostile conditions farther east, but then more favorable conditions (esp. lower wind shear) farther west. May have to watch the Bermuda Triangle later next week with current "96L". And despite El Niño, it will be early September. 🧐
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Jonathan Erdman @wxjerdman.bsky.social · 24/08/2026
Can't wait for fall? Some frosts and freezes this AM in the U.P., northern Wisconsin and Minnesota's Arrowhead. 🥶
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Jonathan Erdman @wxjerdman.bsky.social · 21/08/2026
How weird are two tropical cyclones in about a week's time in Hawaii? (and we highlight two other weird "back-to-backs" this century)
weather.com
Lala, Moke to be most impactful back-to-back Hawaii storms
Only one other time in the last 76 years have two storms impacted Hawaii in a week's time. Here's when it last happened and how Lala and Moke could compare.
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Jonathan Erdman @wxjerdman.bsky.social · 21/08/2026
We asked tropical mets and other weather fans to make out their top US hurricane list. A clear "Mt. Rushmore" emerged.
weather.com
The 4 most notorious U.S. hurricanes of all-time
If you could only pick four, like four presidents on Mt. Rushmore, which hurricanes would be the most infamous in U.S. history?
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Jonathan Erdman @wxjerdman.bsky.social · 21/08/2026
By one metric, it's now the least active start to an Atlantic hurricane season in almost 40 years. #ThanksElNino
weather.com
It's hurricane season. So where are the Atlantic hurricanes?
It's the quietest start to an Atlantic hurricane season this century, and El Niño is a big reason why. Here is what's happening.
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Jonathan Erdman @wxjerdman.bsky.social · 21/08/2026
Weird NHC Atlantic 7-day tropical outlook for August 21 featuring 2 areas in subtropics and zilch in the Niño-squashed main development region.
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Jonathan Erdman @wxjerdman.bsky.social · 21/08/2026
Can't wait for fall? How about a weekend in the northern Great Lakes? 🍂
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Jonathan Erdman @wxjerdman.bsky.social · 19/08/2026
Invest 90E is starting to consolidate its convection and is increasingly likely to become the next tropical storm in the next few days. Question is how close does it track to the Big Island of Hawaii Sunday, still recovering from Lala's destructive flash flooding last weekend.
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Jonathan Erdman @wxjerdman.bsky.social · 14/08/2026
Welp...unless there's a drastic, unanticipated change, the score appears to be: - El Niño: 2 - Main development region: 0
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Jonathan Erdman @wxjerdman.bsky.social · 14/08/2026
In almost three decades following US weather, this may be the most bizarre tornado record I've seen, with all the usual tornado inflation caveats. Given their past history in fall, even early winter, they have a real shot at this national record.
weather.com
Illinois tornado count this year nearing all-time US record
Over 200 tornadoes have torn across Illinois this year. That's more than any other state has recorded in any year, except one. Here's how bizarre this is.
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Jonathan Erdman @wxjerdman.bsky.social · 14/08/2026
It's not every day you see the nation's high temperature in Kansas. 113˚ in Medicine Lodge, near the Oklahoma border. Also some 110s in northwest Oklahoma, per OK mesonet. Oh...and Utqiagvik, AK (America's northernmost town) had a daily record high (70˚).
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Jonathan Erdman @wxjerdman.bsky.social · 13/08/2026
The White River at Anderson, IN is forecast to crest at its highest level since the March 1913 flood, about 13 feet above flood stage. And more rain is possible tonight, perhaps again Friday and Saturday. 😲
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Jonathan Erdman @wxjerdman.bsky.social · 13/08/2026
Over the past 48 hours, it appears eastern Indiana was hit by 5 separate rounds of t-storm clusters. No wonder the flooding.
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Jonathan Erdman @wxjerdman.bsky.social · 11/08/2026
Latest weekly rONI OISST values show our current El Niño has now leapfrogged 1997's El Niño pace. Unlike the other super Niños, we were in a La Niña less than 5 months ago.
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Jonathan Erdman @wxjerdman.bsky.social · 10/08/2026
Interesting battle between some of the physics-based models and AI models regarding future #Lala and Hawaii this weekend. Good test for Google DeepMind.
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Jonathan Erdman @wxjerdman.bsky.social · 05/08/2026
Tropical weather fans, hurricane experts: What's your "Mt. Rushmore" of US hurricanes? I think the top 2 are pretty straightforward. But narrowing down the last 2 is much more challenging. 🤔
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Jonathan Erdman @wxjerdman.bsky.social · 05/08/2026
The snoozing Atlantic hurricane season is off to its slowest start (by ACE index) in 17 years. 2009 had its first storm, then a major hurricane in mid-August.
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Jonathan Erdman @wxjerdman.bsky.social · 04/08/2026
Interesting to see the still relatively high PM10 levels in Phoenix this morning following last night's haboob. Could be more blowing dust (another haboob) this evening?
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Jonathan Erdman @wxjerdman.bsky.social · 30/07/2026
All the "1s" on this map from the SERCC show cities with their hottest year-to-date, or a tie through late July. Includes: Phoenix, Las Vegas and Salt Lake City.
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Jonathan Erdman @wxjerdman.bsky.social · 28/07/2026
Looks like the Land of Lincoln will only continue to pad its incredible lead over all other states in the 2026 tornado race, unfortunately, once surveys are done from Monday's severe weather.
weather.com
America's top tornado state In 2026, so far, is surprising
One state far and away leads the pack in 2026 for both confirmed and reports of tornadoes. It's not the one you think.
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Jonathan Erdman @wxjerdman.bsky.social · 28/07/2026
NWS-Green Bay rated the Appleton-Menasha tornado a preliminary EF3, with maximum estimated winds of 140 mph. Since 1950, per NCEI storm events database, that's only the 4th tornado rated F/EF3+ in either Outagamie or Winnebago Counties. The last one, there, was April 27, 1984.
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Jonathan Erdman @wxjerdman.bsky.social · 27/07/2026
Fans at Lambeau Field for today's Packers annual shareholder meeting should pay close attention to the weather. A line of severe t-storms could head toward Green Bay in about an hour. Listen to directions of Lambeau Field staff and seek shelter if those storms move in.
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Jonathan Erdman @wxjerdman.bsky.social · 27/07/2026
I used to bike, jog, rollerblade along this small creek while at CSU. Never gave thought to it at the time, but that nearby small creek or river can become a life-threatening torrent in an extreme rain event such as this one.
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Jonathan Erdman @wxjerdman.bsky.social · 27/07/2026
After Genevieve briefly hit Cat. 5 earlier this AM, looks like Tropical Storm Dolphin is forecast to become the week's second Cat. 5 near Wake Island in a few days. Dolphin could have an interesting future later next week. 👀 (Model forecast: @tropicaltidbits.bsky.social)
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Jonathan Erdman @wxjerdman.bsky.social · 23/07/2026
RRFS near-surface smoke forecast for this weekend, for now, doesn't look anywhere near as ominous as last week's event.
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Jonathan Erdman @wxjerdman.bsky.social · 22/07/2026
Three weeks of July in the books, and it has been among the top 10 hottest on record from Florida to parts of the Northeast, Great Lakes and N. Plains. Hottest: Elkins, WV; Marquette, MI (tie) and Rapid City, SD. Data: SERCC
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Jonathan Erdman @wxjerdman.bsky.social · 22/07/2026
It's not as lame, but I'm getting some T.S. Don 2011 vibes with Bertha right now.
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Jonathan Erdman @wxjerdman.bsky.social · 22/07/2026
The shear that saved the Gulf Coast from what could have been a potentially stronger Bertha, as seen by satellite this AM. 🛰️: CIRA, NOAA
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Jonathan Erdman @wxjerdman.bsky.social · 21/07/2026
2026 Atlantic hurricane season-to-date: Lopsided, sheared Gulf tropical storms: 2 Caribbean shear: very high That's it, so far.
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Jonathan Erdman @wxjerdman.bsky.social · 17/07/2026
We're now halfway through "meteorological summer" (June-August). Boston, Providence, W. Palm, Ft. Lauderdale and Sarasota have had their warmest first half of any "meteorological summer", per SERCC.
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Jonathan Erdman @wxjerdman.bsky.social · 17/07/2026
Smoke outlook: - Some improvement later today in upper Midwest. - T-storm threat could clean air in Northeast tomorrow - Second, third waves of smoke this weekend, then Tue-Thu. - That "third wave" could -> parts of South.
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