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Joel Wertheimer @wertwhile.bsky.social · 2h

Do we know why Spain is doing well in particular?

Joel Wertheimer @wertwhile.bsky.social · 15h

From ad impact, democrats closed a 26% spending gap to just 7% in airings bc of lowest unit cost rule. Going forward might get to an advantage. Hard dollars are good!

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Joel S. @joelhs.bsky.social · 16h

I wrote about the Trump administration attempting to deport an anti-Zionist Hasidic Jew to Israel, and what it says about the conditions of Jewish identity imposed by the administration's "anti-antisemitism" campaign. religiondispatches.org/2026/10/01/t...

religiondispatches.org

Trump Admin Trying to Deport Anti-Zionist Hasidic Jew “Home” to Israel

The Trump administration is trying to deport Yehonatan Ovadia, a Satmar Hasidic religious teacher in Rockland County, New York. His alleged offense: taking part in a 2023 protest against an Israeli fl...

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Chirag Lala @cthelala.bsky.social · 20h

The bipartisan permitting bill would be the most significant reform to grid governance in decades! I published an analysis of the bill where I discuss the new federal frameworks for planning, cost allocation, and permitting. Ditto public finance! publicenterprise.org/the-bipartis...

publicenterprise.org

The bipartisan permitting bill gets transmission right

The transmission and grid provisions in BAAJA are ambitious, going beyond the provisions of 2024’s EPRA bill. Most importantly, BAAJA gives FERC more statutory cover to take aggressive actions on grid...

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Joel Wertheimer @wertwhile.bsky.social · 20h

But seriously The Pitt is just like this. bsky.app/profile/wert...

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jamelle @jamellebouie.net · 23h

one of my crank beliefs is that jeezy probably won obama a non-trivial number of votes with "my president is black"

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Joel Wertheimer @wertwhile.bsky.social · 21h

Courtlistener is pretty damn good w/ API, but there is no singular system of record. But I do now pull courtlistener hyperlinks in every brief where possible and then the Lexis ones elsewhere.

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Joel Wertheimer @wertwhile.bsky.social · 23h

Hallucinations are way way down in general in the frontier models, which are also just absurdly good at working through a massive record at this point, but a very easy thing a law office can do to prevent the issue is require a link to a case.

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Joel Wertheimer @wertwhile.bsky.social · 23h

It's obviously reasonable to expect and what's more you need to be more vigilant now. I'm quite pro AI in legal practice obviously and my recommendation for every lawyer is to require every citation be hyperlinked in a brief. This is also convenient for the court!

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Joel Wertheimer @wertwhile.bsky.social · 23h

Biased but I don't think anybody is doing Dem ad making as well as @tavernresearch.bsky.social right now, using AI for good, in this case to help Democrats ear worm their way to victory. tavernresearch.substack.com/p/our-best-n...

tavernresearch.substack.com

Our Best New Ad Is a Jingle

We’ve written before that the overwhelming majority of an ad’s persuasion happens through the audio that the listener hears.

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Joel Wertheimer @wertwhile.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

google scholar may be particularly useful here? they've already done so much work structuring it for relevant citations and quotes.

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Joel Wertheimer @wertwhile.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

I think 1) it's plausible MN Dems are unpopular after fraud stuff, 2) northern whites do seem to be swinging less than other voters, and 3) these polls are all largely shit

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Joel Wertheimer @wertwhile.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

I'll believe AI is a truly transformative technology when I never have to file stuff to ECF personally ever again.

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Joel Wertheimer @wertwhile.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

Here is IRA architect @janeaflegal.bsky.social explaining why it's so good.

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Joel Wertheimer @wertwhile.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

This is the first cycle I've had the disposable to make some larger donations and my god they start calling you George.

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Joel Wertheimer @wertwhile.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

Everything I have heard about this bill is that it is more or less excellent and the planet would benefit a lot of it passes and I hope it does and it becomes law.

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Mikhail Gorbaechev @mikhailgorbaechev.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

Lotta people defended this fucking guy to me in 2020 and all of you are suckers and losers.

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Joel Wertheimer @wertwhile.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

Via @purrtah.bsky.social, the ActBlue machine is kicking into gear, which will shift ad spending dynamics a lot because it's mostly hard dollars.

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Joel Wertheimer @wertwhile.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

Jeff a must follow on polling stuff from somebody on D side doing the actual campaign polling.

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David Ho @davidho.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

Congratulations to my friend @hollyjeanbuck.bsky.social for being a 2026 MacArthur Fellow. I always knew she was a genius and this confirms it. 🥳

macfound.org

Holly Jean Buck

Investigating the social, ethical, and political dimensions of climate and energy policies and emerging technologies.

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Joel Wertheimer @wertwhile.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

It's one of my favorite little polling things.

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Joel Wertheimer @wertwhile.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

From Nate Cohn on Twitter in 2024 here are actual vote probabilities by self reported likelihood of voting using the voter file.

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Joel Wertheimer @wertwhile.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

Please also use a voter file and stratify your responses by demographics and party so you're catching the right kinds of each voter and weight by primary participation using the voter file so you don't get too many highly engaged partisans.

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Joel Wertheimer @wertwhile.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

If you are polling in 2026 and you want to avoid as many mistakes as possible: 1) weight your RV pool to a partisan variable whether 2024 presidential vote or NPORS party ID and 2) use a probabilistic LV screen rather than a firm cut off of vote likelihood.

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Joel Wertheimer @wertwhile.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

Using these numbers and a probabilistic model of turnout would make LVs more like D+12.

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Joel Wertheimer @wertwhile.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

Really do not like LV screens that just cut off everybody who says anything less than definitely.

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Joel Wertheimer @wertwhile.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

Of course it also seems like in a world awash in chips if this bust ever happens we may just bitter lesson our way to self driving cars by every manufacturer.

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Joel Wertheimer @wertwhile.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

Among all the reasons it’s bad Elon is a Nazi, not being able to buy a Tesla is a small one, but it really does seem like they’ve figured out FSD recently.

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Joel Wertheimer @wertwhile.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

I mean NYT always. Emerson, Fox, yougov, etc. mostly just skeptical of any poll that isn’t explicit in weights to 2024 or party ID or something for RVs and applying an LV screen. Doesn’t mean ones that do are good.

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Joel Wertheimer @wertwhile.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

On the verge of tossing out all Marist polls right now. They’re not weighting to partisan variables sufficiently it feels like.

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Joel Wertheimer @wertwhile.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

Largely their costs last year seemed much lower than I thought they’d have been tbh

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Joel Wertheimer @wertwhile.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

I think “500b of commitments” is much different than needing 500b next year. They are at 75B in ARR and we’re still really early and the revenues seem reasonably sticky.

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Joel Wertheimer @wertwhile.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

lol the reporting on the Anthropic s1 makes me update positively on their future. We know their revenues have grown a ton and they keep making the best models and seem to have lower compute commitments.

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Joel Wertheimer @wertwhile.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

Does perfectly well out of sample going back. The hard part with this stuff is we know lots of things matter from income to cost of money that simple measures don’t capture so any single thing will feel p-hacked I think? Also the N remains very low only like 7 big shifts in the data.

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Joel Wertheimer @wertwhile.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

When the big companies have announced massive capex larger than expectations their stocks have dropped on those announcements so what will it look like for these companies when public

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Joel Wertheimer @wertwhile.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

I think the material conditions matter much more than you do but you’re right coverage matters and that things have gotten more negative I just don’t think it’s new or special to the past few years particularly. Still Michigan survey is borked. bsky.app/profile/wert...

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Joel Wertheimer @wertwhile.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

I think it’s a lot more like a long term secular vibes decline than a new thing bsky.app/profile/wert...

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Joel Wertheimer @wertwhile.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

No no. I’m just saying economic data with a longer window does a decent job on 2022 and 2023 and you’ve been focusing on YoY stuff all this time. More recently the issue is the survey is busted but even accounting for it I think there’s a gap to economic sentiment but it is busted.

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Joel Wertheimer @wertwhile.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

If you just add cpi and unemployment but use not just a one year but a three year window, the mystery of the gap between the two measures goes away a lot if not all the way to explaining the negative sentiment of 2022 and 2023. Today’s adjusted negative sentiment somewhat harder to explain.

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Joel Wertheimer @wertwhile.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

The Michigan survey’s self reporting on prices as the main cause of their gloom has the same issues the survey itself has in that there are way too many democrats in it.

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Joel Wertheimer @wertwhile.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

The 2022 data is largely explicable by misery index style measures and the vibecession wasn’t very real. Current data after adjustment is less explicable but the Michigan data really is basically nonsense right now. open.substack.com/pub/natesilv...

open.substack.com

Is the vibecession real — or is the survey broken?

A shift to online polling and undersampling of Republicans are skewing America’s most-cited measure of consumer sentiment.

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Joel Wertheimer @wertwhile.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

She's also just a pretty good administrator who did a good job at sanitation and IMO has done about as well as you can with the goons at the PD

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Joel Wertheimer @wertwhile.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

What I'm really hoping is that Tyson deliberately played with the truth in this ad so that the Marshall campaign would amplify it.

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Joel Wertheimer @wertwhile.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

The funny thing is I think she would have won had she run and everybody pushed all the other establishment figures aside. This also applies to Garcia. @benjaminkabak.com

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Eric Mallory Morgan @ericmakesmistakes.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

Your read is the same as mine and I lived it.

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Joel Wertheimer @wertwhile.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

Also have separate questions about how digital content creators are getting measured by BLS and how many there are.

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Joel Wertheimer @wertwhile.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

This is the graph in Joey's thread/article that makes me think AI had very little to do with these losses. This is a chart of the streaming wars, covid, a surge to finish delayed projects, and the end of the streaming wars.

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