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Veli-Pekka Kivimäki

@vpkivimaki.bsky.social
19K followers 756 following 190 posts

Finnish Security and Intelligence Service. Adjunct, Johns Hopkins. Past: Finnish Defence Forces, Bellingcat, Microsoft, Nokia.

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Veli-Pekka Kivimäki @vpkivimaki.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
Working for an intelligence service in this day and age, I can relate to this meme.
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Veli-Pekka Kivimäki @vpkivimaki.bsky.social · 11/09/2026
Took this photo 25 years ago on 9/11, on campus in Texas. This oblivious little fella was somehow the thing that made the most sense on a chaotic day.
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Veli-Pekka Kivimäki @vpkivimaki.bsky.social · 08/09/2026
Hobbyist discovered Finland's largest known Viking-era silver hoard to date. yle.fi/a/74-20244974
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Veli-Pekka Kivimäki @vpkivimaki.bsky.social · 30/08/2026
One of the more tiring aspect of GenAI trivialization is content slopwrapping. Accounts on social media are pushing basically relevant stuff, but in horribly AI packaged manner. And copyrighted content is flooding to video channels, with AI generated posts. Content decay is underway.
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Jari Pirhonen @japi.bsky.social · 22/08/2026
- Identify what could go wrong - Prompt carefully - Set the right level of oversight - Control the AI agent's environment with a sandbox - Log, audit and monitor agentic AI activity - Make AI activity easy to attribute - Prepare for an emergency shutdown www.ncsc.gov.uk/blogs/managi...
ncsc.gov.uk
Managing the cyber risk of agentic AI
Use safeguards, sandboxing and active oversight to realise the benefits of autonomous systems while limiting the unintended activity.
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Veli-Pekka Kivimäki @vpkivimaki.bsky.social · 24/07/2026
Looking forward to this ’Inside Intelligence’ discussion next week on European security from a Finnish perspective, in light of Russia’s war against Ukraine.
eventbrite.com
A New NATO Ally's Perspective on the Ukraine War's Outlook
Inside Intelligence presents “A New NATO Ally's Perspective on the Ukraine War's Outlook"
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Veli-Pekka Kivimäki @vpkivimaki.bsky.social · 19/07/2026
¡Felicidades, España! Well played.
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Veli-Pekka Kivimäki @vpkivimaki.bsky.social · 10/03/2026
Finnish Security and Intelligence Service has today published its annual National Security Overview. As Director Juha Martelius notes in his foreword, there are no new positive developments in sight for Finland’s security situation. supo.fi/en/overview
supo.fi
National Security Overview - Supo
Finnish Security and Intelligence Service P.O.BOX 151 00121 HELSINKI, FINLAND
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Veli-Pekka Kivimäki @vpkivimaki.bsky.social · 26/02/2026
Pleased to share that this book with Finnish perspectives on political and security developments related to Russia is out. Open Access! Includes my chapter on open source as a window into the war in Ukraine, taking the long view between 2014-2025. link.springer.com/book/10.1007...
link.springer.com
Inevitable Instability in Russia
This contributed volume offers expert insights to help readers understand contemporary Russia and anticipate its future
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Veli-Pekka Kivimäki @vpkivimaki.bsky.social · 19/02/2026
It’s frustrating that Copilot is now bolted onto everything in Win11, yet it doesn’t properly integrate with apps and underperforms compared to ChatGPT and Gemini.
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Veli-Pekka Kivimäki @vpkivimaki.bsky.social · 17/01/2026
I’m glad our President is a triathlonist, because by God, navigating all these twists and turns in world events require similar endurance. 😅
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Veli-Pekka Kivimäki @vpkivimaki.bsky.social · 24/12/2025
We’re living in times of uncertainty, so during the holiday season we should focus on what grounds us - our loved ones and what supports us through the year. Happy holidays to everyone.
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Veli-Pekka Kivimäki @vpkivimaki.bsky.social · 13/12/2025
The most memorable shots in photography are the ones you have in your viewfinder, but don’t quite catch.
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Veli-Pekka Kivimäki @vpkivimaki.bsky.social · 30/11/2025
Finland 1939 vs. Ukraine 2022. Soviet forces invaded Finland on 30 Nov 1939, while claiming not to threaten Finnish sovereignty. The Soviet goal was to march into Helsinki & seize control. The attempt was stopped by fierce resistance, much like the march into Kyiv in 2022.
Finnish soldiers with captured Soviet tank, 1 Dec 1939. Credit: SA-kuvaRussian tank captured by Ukrainian soldiers, September 2022. Credit: Andrii Tsaplienko
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Veli-Pekka Kivimäki @vpkivimaki.bsky.social · 27/09/2025
Let's zoom out from the drones. What Europe needs to counter the Russia threat is robust intelligence and counterintelligence capabilities, and credible military power with defense production that could sustain it through war. Early warning and capability to disrupt and deter.
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Veli-Pekka Kivimäki @vpkivimaki.bsky.social · 30/08/2025
New research publication by Finnish National Defence University: 'An army with too many people and not enough soldiers?' : Russia's military manpower system in flux
doria.fi
'An army with too many people and not enough soldiers?' : Russia's military manpower system in flux
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Veli-Pekka Kivimäki @vpkivimaki.bsky.social · 21/07/2025
In the past week I read ”The Order of Time” and ”White Holes” by Carlo Rovelli, and I feel like these adventures in theoretical physics have twisted my brain into a knot. 😅
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Veli-Pekka Kivimäki @vpkivimaki.bsky.social · 10/07/2025
UN Human Rights Monitoring Mission in Ukraine: ”With at least 1,575 civilian casualties (232 killed; 1,343 injured), June 2025 has been the month with the highest number of civilian casualties in three years.”
ukraine.ohchr.org
Protection of Civilians in Armed Conflict — June 2025 | UN Human Rights Monitoring Mission in Ukraine
With at least 1,575 civilian casualties (232 killed; 1,343 injured), June 2025 has been the month with the highest number of civilian casualties in three years. The number of civilians killed in June ...
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Veli-Pekka Kivimäki @vpkivimaki.bsky.social · 01/07/2025
Here we go.
open.substack.com
Introduction
How we're here and what to expect.
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Veli-Pekka Kivimäki @vpkivimaki.bsky.social · 30/06/2025
I have set up a new Substack. There are some things I want to write about over the summer, so you can follow along here: vpkivimaki.substack.com
vpkivimaki.substack.com
OpenINT by Veli-Pekka Kivimäki | Substack
Discussion, research and analysis on intelligence, with a Finnish twist. Click to read OpenINT by Veli-Pekka Kivimäki, a Substack publication. Launched 3 hours ago.
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Veli-Pekka Kivimäki @vpkivimaki.bsky.social · 28/06/2025
Agree with @davidpriess.bsky.social 100%: investments in intelligence should not be bypassed while Europe makes historic raises in defense spending. Good observations on making intelligence relevant for the policymaker in his recent article. icds.ee/en/seizing-t...
icds.ee
Seizing the Opportunity to Enhance Intelligence-Policy Relations - ICDS
The unusual geopolitical moment created by Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine and, now, by the shift in official US policy and tone present enormous challenges for Europe’s political leaders, nat...
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David Priess @davidpriess.bsky.social · 07/05/2025
In light of CNN’s recent reporting that the administration has cut back access to the President’s Daily Brief, I trace here the evolution of a dozen presidents’ choices about the PDB’s dissemination—a 60 year “who’s who” of intelligence-policy relations: engelsbergideas.com/essays/the-u...
engelsbergideas.com
The US President's daily dose of intelligence
Donald Trump’s reported restriction of the President’s Daily Brief represents just the latest change in six decades of ebb and flow in the readership of this top secret, highly coveted document.
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Veli-Pekka Kivimäki @vpkivimaki.bsky.social · 30/04/2025
Have to say I'm somewhat blown away by what ChatGPT Deep Research can do. I pointed it at archive material I know quite well, gave few narrowing criteria, and the specifics it could draw from online archive material matched very well with what I know about the source material. Impressive progress.
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POLITICO Europe @politico.eu · 12/04/2025
NATO is concerned that Russia is seeking to deploy nuclear weapons in space, a development that could threaten the thousands of satellites orbiting the Earth that are crucial to defense as well as people's daily lives, the alliance's chief said.
politico.eu
NATO chief is worried about Russian space nukes
“The development of nuclear weapons in space is a way for Russia to improve its capabilities,” NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte tells Welt am Sonntag.
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Megan Cassella @megancnbc.bsky.social · 09/04/2025
TL;DR: The new U.S. tariff rate against our two largest trading partners is either 10%, 25% or 35%, and so far no one I've reached out to at the White House is able to tell me which.
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The New York Times @nytimes.com · 09/04/2025
Treasury bonds are traditionally seen as a safe haven in times of economic turmoil, because they offer investors a guaranteed payment backed by the U.S. government. Instead, investors are selling the assets. Here's what to know.
nytimes.com
Another Rocky Day in Markets: Stocks and Bonds Sink
With the S&P 500 near a bear market, shares in Europe and Asia fell as China and other major U.S. trading partners confronted significantly higher tariffs. Investors also sold U.S. bonds.
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Alexa @alexakoenig.bsky.social · 07/04/2025
Open-source researchers: whether you’re actively searching for evidence re: conflict-related sexual violence or not, you may find it. We've just launched the pilot Open-Source Practitioner’s Guide to the Murad Code w/ IICI to help www.muradcode.com/open-source-... @berkeleylaw.bsky.social
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Veli-Pekka Kivimäki @vpkivimaki.bsky.social · 07/04/2025
If Trump views Europe as an economic competitor, recent actions seem to only help close ranks in Europe.
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The Kyiv Independent @kyivindependent.com · 04/04/2025
⚡️UPDATED: 16 killed, including 6 children, over 50 injured in Russian strike on Kryvyi Rih. Russia launched a ballistic missile attack on Kryvyi Rih in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast on April 4, hitting a residential neighborhood, setting buildings on fire and causing severe damage.
kyivindependent.com
16 killed, including 6 children, over 50 injured in Russian strike on Kryvyi Rih
Russia launched a ballistic missile attack on Kryvyi Rih in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast on April 4, hitting a residential neighborhood, setting buildings on fire and causing severe damage, according to Olek...
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Veli-Pekka Kivimäki @vpkivimaki.bsky.social · 01/04/2025
Major security related decisions by the Finnish government today: 🔘 Defense spending will be increased to 3% of GDP by 2029 🔘 Finland will start preparations for withdrawal from the Ottawa Treaty, which bans anti-personnel mines
yle.fi
Finland prepares to leave Ottawa Treaty banning anti-personnel landmines
Finland's defence spending will be increased to three percent of GDP by 2029 and much of that money will go towards upgrading Finnish Army equipment.
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Veli-Pekka Kivimäki @vpkivimaki.bsky.social · 29/03/2025
Deterring China in the Arctic is tied to also dealing with the Russians, as Russia has become a route for China to access the Arctic. We explored the Russia/China Arctic relationship in our annual report. katsaus.supo.fi/en/china-in-...
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Veli-Pekka Kivimäki @vpkivimaki.bsky.social · 29/03/2025
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Ankit Panda @nktpnd.bsky.social · 27/03/2025
A few thoughts: — DPRK baseline ability to sustain conventional warfare is low (US IC estimate of 10-14 days of intense war) — nuclear use is an offset to having to fight an intense conventional war against a conventionally superior, nuclear-backed alliance 1/2
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Veli-Pekka Kivimäki @vpkivimaki.bsky.social · 24/03/2025
Russia and China present the most significant cyber threats against Finnish national security. Russia has created a permissive environment for cyber criminals, which makes it possible also to mount deniable cyber operations. More about cyber threats to national security in this interview in Finnish.
yle.fi
Supo: Venäjä ja Kiina ovat merkittävä kyberuhka Suomelle
Suojelupoliisi avasi ensimmäistä kertaa Suomeen kohdistuvia kyberuhkia.
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Pyotr Kozlov @kozlov.bsky.social · 23/03/2025
In Moscow, officials believe that Washington — which doesn’t view the exact dividing lines as a major priority — will pressure Kyiv to concede even more territory than Russia has been able to seize by force. www.themoscowtimes.com/2025/03/23/p...
themoscowtimes.com
Playing for Time: What the Kremlin Wants in New Talks with the U.S. on Ukraine - The Moscow Times
As high-level delegations from the U.S. and Russia arrive in Saudi Arabia for the second round of bilateral talks aimed at ending the war in Ukraine, Moscow’s envoys will have one goal on their mind: ...
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Suomen Kuvalehti @suomenkuvalehti.fi · 22/03/2025
Veli-Pekka Kivimäki oli mukana, kun kansalaisaktivistit selvittivät, miksi malesialainen lentokone putosi Itä-Ukrainaan – nyt hän työskentelee suojelupoliisissa
suomenkuvalehti.fi
Veli-Pekka Kivimäki oli mukana, kun kansalaisaktivistit selvittivät, miksi malesialainen lentokone putosi Itä-Ukrainaan – nyt hän työskentelee suojelupoliisissa
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Kriszta Satori @fulelo.bsky.social · 21/03/2025
Oleg Gordievsky has died www.bbc.com/news/article...
bbc.com
Former KGB double agent Oleg Gordievsky dies at Surrey home
Counter-terrorism police are assisting the coroner, but his death is not being treated as suspicious.
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Minna Ålander 🌻 @alanderminna.bsky.social · 19/03/2025
I’m old enough to remember that the US used to be more than just one global partner among others. From the EU white paper on defence: www.europarl.europa.eu/doceo/docume...
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POLITICO Europe @politico.eu · 19/03/2025
US arms-makers are being frozen out of the EU’s massive new defense spending plan, which aims to splash the cash for EU and allied countries.
ow.ly
EU slams the door on US in colossal defense plan
Bloc aims to build up military-industrial complex to deter Russia and brace for the U.S. shift away from Europe.
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The Kyiv Independent @kyivindependent.com · 18/03/2025
⚡️ Zelensky arrives in Finland to discuss security and strengthen ties. "Europe should be at the table, and everything that concerns Europe's security should be decided together with Europe," President Volodymyr Zelensky said on Telegram, announcing his arrival in Finland.
kyivindependent.com
Zelensky arrives in Finland for official visit to discuss security and strengthen ties
President Volodymyr Zelensky and First Lady Olena Zelenska arrived in Finland for an official visit on March 18. The plane carrying the couple landed at Helsinki-Vantaa Airport in the afternoon.
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Reuters @reuters.com · 18/03/2025
Germany's lower house of parliament is set to vote on a massive surge in borrowing that could boost Europe's largest economy and stimulate growth across the region, even as it faces trade tensions with top partner the United States reut.rs/4hliBRP
reut.rs
German parliament to vote on historic spending surge
Germany's lower house of parliament is set to vote on Tuesday on a massive surge in borrowing that could boost Europe's largest economy and stimulate growth across the region, even as it faces trade tensions with top partner the United States.
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Yan Matusevich @ymatusik.bsky.social · 16/03/2025
I cannot emphasize enough what a crucial role Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty has played in the post-Soviet space, often acting as the only serious alternative to state propaganda & self-censoring media. Their journalists broadcast in local languages, covering the most pressing issues in the region
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Nicole Grajewski @nicolegrajewski.bsky.social · 16/03/2025
“US officials watched multiple Russian satellites work together to surround and isolate another satellite that was positioned in low-Earth orbit, demonstrating how they could potentially target enemy spacecraft in a future conflict, the official added.” www.cnn.com/2025/03/16/p...
cnn.com
Pentagon is closely monitoring Russia and China test military capabilities in space | CNN Politics
US military officials believe Russia and China are aggressively testing new offensive space capabilities, pointing to a series of satellite training missions conducted by both countries in recent mont...
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Eliot Higgins @eliothiggins.bsky.social · 16/03/2025
Reply with your favourite Starter Packs for people fleeing X here. Here's Bellingcat's: go.bsky.app/HZSzS41
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Anton Gerashchenko @antongerashchenko.bsky.social · 16/03/2025
President of Finland Alexander Stubb: "I don't think Putin wants a ceasefire. Putin doesn't want peace. His original aim was...basically to have #Ukraine ceasing to exist. He hasn't changed his aim. And this is what all of us around the table have to understand."1/2⤵️
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Charly Salonius-Pasternak @charlyjsp.bsky.social · 16/03/2025
Finland similarly increased production, first by ordering more (in spring 2022) —> industry hired more people for more shifts… then putting tens of millions into expanding facilities = lots of artillery and munitions. PS🇫🇮 also did a test run of “wartime production” process, at lower volume.
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Björn Müller @bjoernm.bsky.social · 16/03/2025
🇫🇷 armament offensive incoming. “Those who buy Patriot should be offered the new-generation Franco-Italian SAMP/T. Those who buy the F-35, should be offered the Rafale,” French president Macron says. www.politico.eu/article/macr...
politico.eu
Macron to EU colleagues: Stop buying American, buy European
“Those who buy Patriot should be offered the new-generation Franco-Italian SAMP/T. Those who buy the F-35, should be offered the Rafale,” French president says.
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Veli-Pekka Kivimäki @vpkivimaki.bsky.social · 16/03/2025
I was profiled by Finnish weekly Suomen Kuvalehti. We discussed similarities between my early work with Bellingcat, and work in intelligence today. Intelligence professionals should understand what today’s open source landscape looks like, and how it helps address key national security questions.
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Veli-Pekka Kivimäki @vpkivimaki.bsky.social · 16/03/2025
Lots of new followers. 👀 Hello! My feed is likely a mix of intel/security, military, Finnish neighborhood, Russia, Ukraine, OSINT’y stuff, and a sprinkling of tech nerdy things.
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