Uri Shalit @urish.bsky.social · 06/10/2025Gelman has something to this effect, starting from bottom of p.6 here (“There are (almost) no true zeros”) bayes.cs.ucla.edu/BOOK-2K/gelm...bayes.cs.ucla.edu 130
Reposted by Uri ShalitFredrik Johansson @frejohk.bsky.social · 23/04/2025We are hiring a *PhD student* in my group to work on machine learning generalization "out-of-table". Help build methods that learn from large volumes of tabular data to generate models for new tasks! Apply here: www.chalmers.se/en/about-cha...chalmers.seVacancies 174
Reposted by Uri ShalitKnight First Amendment Institute @knightcolumbia.org · 15/04/2025In a new essay from our "Artificial Intelligence and Democratic Freedoms" series, @randomwalker.bsky.social & @sayash.bsky.social make the case for thinking of #AI as normal technology, instead of superintelligence. Read here: knightcolumbia.org/content/ai-a...knightcolumbia.orgAI as Normal Technology 13717
Uri Shalit @urish.bsky.social · 01/04/2025They are graded on giving full proofs. LLMs are quite bad at that. Though I’m sure there’s also quite a bit of test data leaks going around 000
Uri Shalit @urish.bsky.social · 15/02/2025Not a big SSC fan but I liked his idea of epistemic learned helplessness slatestarcodex.com/2019/06/03/r...slatestarcodex.com[REPOST] Epistemic Learned Helplessness[This is a slightly edited repost of an essay from my old LiveJournal] A friend recently complained about how many people lack the basic skill of believing arguments. That is, if you have a valid a… 120
Reposted by Uri Shalituai2026 @auai.org · 13/02/2025Have you worked recently on a cool topic 📚 and now you think it is time to teach it to the whole #UAI2025 community 🗣️? If so, submit a proposal to give a #Tutorial in #Rio 🇧🇷! 👉 www.auai.org/uai2025/call... 🕓 deadline: Apr 14, 2025auai.org 0138
Uri Shalit @urish.bsky.social · 16/01/2025Tangentially related: interesting to think of the biblical law of jubilee in this context. It says that every 50 years debts are dropped, indentured servants released and land is returned to “original” owners 040
Uri Shalit @urish.bsky.social · 01/01/2025This piece from August seems like a good writeup: mathscholar.org/2024/08/new-... It mentions a new book from 2024 by Jack Szostak and Mario Livio called “Is Earth Exceptional? The Quest for Cosmic Life”. Szostak is a leading scientist in the field (I haven’t read the book yet)mathscholar.orgNew developments in the origin of life on Earth « Math Scholar 030
Uri Shalit @urish.bsky.social · 28/12/2024This is a good, longish essay on the subject by @randomwalker.bsky.social and @sayash.bsky.social www.aisnakeoil.com/p/ai-existen...aisnakeoil.comAI existential risk probabilities are too unreliable to inform policyHow speculation gets laundered through pseudo-quantification 041
Uri Shalit @urish.bsky.social · 12/12/2024Hi everyone, amazing student Marah Ghoummaid and myself are presenting our work “When to Act and When to Ask: Policy Learning With Deferral Under Hidden Confounding” at #NeurIPS2024 today! Come talk to us 11:00 - 2:00, West Ballroom, poster #5106! Paper: openreview.net/forum?id=taI... 0210
Uri Shalit @urish.bsky.social · 24/11/2024I love this sketch of a Purkinje cell (a type of neuron found in the cerebellum) by Santiago Ramón y Cajal 073
Uri Shalit @urish.bsky.social · 24/11/2024to be fair, ICLR is a far cry from what Yann is suggesting in that piece. I'm not questioning the need for reform. My question is why didn't the push for reform succeed back then, and what can we learn from that? (in the spirit of "Everyone will not just") 010
Uri Shalit @urish.bsky.social · 24/11/2024I recall that Yann LeCun had some interesting suggestions back in 2013-2014. Despite his clout the community didn't move much* yann.lecun.com/ex/pamphlets... *ICLR public reviews and TMLR are small steps which I think followed from the discussions going around back thenyann.lecun.comProposal for A New Publishing Model in Computer ScienceYann LeCun's Home Page 120
Uri Shalit @urish.bsky.social · 24/11/2024This is such a good point, and I love the connection you're making in the paper to resilience to hidden confounding. In many cases the treatments that would shift are exactly those that have more "exogenous randomness" in them, and for these units the effect might be more easily identified from data 020
Uri Shalit @urish.bsky.social · 23/11/2024Breaking the Maya Code, by Michael Coe, about the deciphering of Mayan script One of the people involved in the story is Yuri Knorozov, pictured below 140
Uri Shalit @urish.bsky.social · 22/11/2024Instead some scientists just said “close schools!” , conflating their own priorities with science and hurting the credibility of scientists overall. Their intentions were good but I think the overall outcome is not 2/2 220
Uri Shalit @urish.bsky.social · 22/11/2024an example where I think some scientists stumbled: during COVID after the first few months, imo a responsible scientist would say “closing schools has these benefits and these harms (w/uncertainty), the politicians and public should weigh them and decide” 1/2 110
Reposted by Uri ShalitNeurIPS Conference @neuripsconf.bsky.social · 22/11/2024NeurIPS Conference is now Live on Bluesky! -NeurIPS2024 Communication Chairs 1127669
Uri Shalit @urish.bsky.social · 19/11/2024Related to this, been enjoying this paper by Icard, @jfkominsky.bsky.social & Knobe looking at how "normality" affects the way humans judge causes. eg in when you need two factors to cause an event (say oxygen + match to cause a fire), humans will judge the less "normal" element to be more causalsciencedirect.comNormality and actual causal strengthExisting research suggests that people’s judgments of actual causation can be influenced by the degree to which they regard certain events as normal. … 081
Uri Shalit @urish.bsky.social · 19/11/2024I'm now getting a much better signal-to-noise for ML discussions here than on Xitter plus funnier/more profound shitposting, and much, much less rage inducing screaming and general junk 000
Uri Shalit @urish.bsky.social · 19/11/2024I don’t know about other domains, but in healthcare I’ve seen the term used to basically mean “a model of how a patient would respond to a treatment other than the one they’ve actually received”. When used in that sense it’s just corpo ai brainwash as @natolambert.bsky.social said 140
Uri Shalit @urish.bsky.social · 17/11/2024While I think this is a great paper, I also think that the focus on causal features (which is only part of what the paper is about) is a bit of red herring bsky.app/profile/uris... 010
Uri Shalit @urish.bsky.social · 17/11/2024OTOH consider a severe headache. While the pain itself is probably not immediately causal, it’s a strong and stable symptom of underlying conditions and this it’s a stable feature. Indeed almost any classic diagnosis of disease by symptoms is anti-causal yet stable (3/3) 130
Uri Shalit @urish.bsky.social · 17/11/2024E.g. consider the time of day someone goes into an ER. That might influence who sees them and how quickly which will influence many downstream outcomes causally. But the specifics of this effect will vary wildly between different ERs making this an unstable feature (2/3) 130
Uri Shalit @urish.bsky.social · 17/11/2024To be fair, I think there’s no strong reason to think that causal features are a priori more stable than others (1/3) 120
Uri Shalit @urish.bsky.social · 15/11/2024And despite all these papers it seems that in many realistic scenarios it’s still hard to consistently beat good old ERM an example in EHR data: pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC...pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.govEvaluation of domain generalization and adaptation on improving model robustness to temporal dataset shift in clinical medicineTemporal dataset shift associated with changes in healthcare over time is a barrier to deploying machine learning-based clinical decision support systems. Algorithms that learn robust models by estima... 170
Uri Shalit @urish.bsky.social · 15/11/2024There’s a long line of literature starting from the ICP paper arxiv.org/abs/1501.01332, with IRM being an important (if imperfect) checkpoint arxiv.org/abs/1907.02893 I also really like the anchor regression paper arxiv.org/abs/1801.06229 and this is our work (calibrate!) arxiv.org/abs/2102.10395arxiv.orgCausal inference using invariant prediction: identification and confidence intervalsWhat is the difference of a prediction that is made with a causal model and a non-causal model? Suppose we intervene on the predictor variables or change the whole environment. The predictions from a ... 1122
Uri Shalit @urish.bsky.social · 29/10/2024The milk in Hersheys chocolate goes through lipolysis, which breaks down some of its fatty acids in order to extend shelf life. The problem is that lipolysis yields butyric acid, an acid which is literally found in vomit and gives Hersheys that very specific revolting taste 050
Uri Shalit @urish.bsky.social · 23/09/2024I think the recent spate was prompted by this piece www.ft.com/content/6596...ft.comWith Bluesky, the social media echo chamber is back in vogueThe great migration from Elon Musk’s X has seen users, especially progressives, retreat into one particular silo 120
Uri Shalit @urish.bsky.social · 15/09/2024יש לי בראש שלפני איזה חודש חודשיים היו שם אופציות יותר מעניינות של להראות רק חלק מהתגובות לפי … כל מיני קריטריונים שאני לא זוכר בדיוק אבל שהיו לי שימושיים מקווה שיחזירו את זה 130
Uri Shalit @urish.bsky.social · 15/09/2024בsettings יש את Following feed preferences ואני חושב ששם אפשר לשלוט בזה 130
Uri Shalit @urish.bsky.social · 08/09/2024Hi BlueSky people :) I'll be spending the next year on sabbatical with Google DeepMind in London I would love to meet people around here, so if you're in the area please feel free to drop me a line 270
Uri Shalit @urish.bsky.social · 02/09/2024My knee jerk is “assumption which might hold only in special situations / do not accept easily that it’s true”. Fascinating to see in the replies how people read it completely different 030
Uri Shalit @urish.bsky.social · 31/08/2024Seems like bluesky naturally lends itself to dunking on SUTVA (n=2, p<∞) bsky.app/profile/uris... 020
Uri Shalit @urish.bsky.social · 26/08/2024Cochin Jews are also an interesting medieval (possibly earlier?) community, in south India. I love that they had their own dialect, Judeo-Malayalam en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cochin_...en.wikipedia.orgCochin Jews - Wikipedia 230
Uri Shalit @urish.bsky.social · 12/07/2024This is surprising to me! I would love to better understand why you think that’s the case? 120
Uri Shalit @urish.bsky.social · 27/03/2024If you read some piece of information that seems to exactly confirm everything bad you ever thought about <something you hate>, there’s a good chance it’s misleading or wrong 020
Uri Shalit @urish.bsky.social · 26/03/2024Is there something analogous to Riemann’s series theorem, but for rearranging parentheses while keeping the order of the summands fixed? 120
Uri Shalit @urish.bsky.social · 18/03/2024I think this is only a threat if: 1. Revs. who would have written quality reviews now write bad reviews because they can use ChatGPT, and/or 2. ACs who would previously recognize bad reviews would miss some because they're masekd in ChatGPTese I might be wrong by IMO none of these is a big threat? 110