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Ugo Panizza

@upanizza.bsky.social
2.7K followers 1.3K following 427 posts

Professor & Pictet Chair @GVAGrad, VP @cepr_org & Director ICMB. Before @UNCTAD @the_IDB @AUB_Lebanon @unito 2 daughters. FVCG ⛷🏍 Twitter handle @upanizza www.upanizza.com

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Reposted by Ugo Panizza
Ugo Panizza @upanizza.bsky.social · 25/05/2026
1/ Last week I attended the 2026 GRN Dev. Banking Research Conference, organized by @afd-france.bsky.social & Finance in Common with FERDI and CERDI. A recurring theme, implicit rather than explicit, was the knowledge role of national development banks. Why this matters. @gvagrad.bsky.social
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Reposted by Ugo Panizza
VoxEU @ CEPR @voxeu.org · 12/08/2026
@upanizza.bsky.social, Francesco Tripoli, & @wederdim.bsky.social conduct an autopsy of the voluntary carbon market and reinforce the case for reforming carbon accounting to stop credits from standing in for cuts the firm could make itself. cepr.org/voxeu/column... #EconSky
Figure shows that avoidance projects dominate the carbon market. These projects do not take carbon out of the air. They claim credit for emissions that never happened, measured against a hypothetical world in which the project never existed. A credit avoids a tonne only if that hypothetical holds and the project would not have gone ahead anyway. Much of the integrity evidence finds that this condition often fails.

The voluntary carbon market was built on a single promise: that one credit cancels one tonne. Most scrutiny has asked whether that promise holds on the supply side – whether the credits are real. This column asks a different question: what did the mere availability of offsets do to the firms that bought them? Using a buyer-linked dataset spanning the near-universe of offset retirements, and the 2023 integrity scandals as a natural experiment, the authors find that firms which walked away from offsetting cut their own operational emissions sharply more than firms that stayed. Even a market of flawless credits could still slow real decarbonisation.
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Reposted by Ugo Panizza
AOC, un quotidien d'idées @aoc-media.bsky.social · 23/06/2026
« L’expansion de l’emprunt intérieur représente une opportunité à double tranchant. » Par Ugo Panizza @upanizza.bsky.social. aoc.media/analyse/2026...
aoc.media
Comment les gouvernements africains s'endettent - AOC media
Les prêts chinois à l’Afrique ont fortement diminué depuis leur pic de 2016, obligeant de nombreux pays africains à rechercher des financements importants sur les marchés obligataires nationaux.…
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Ugo Panizza @upanizza.bsky.social · 25/05/2026
1/ Last week I attended the 2026 GRN Dev. Banking Research Conference, organized by @afd-france.bsky.social & Finance in Common with FERDI and CERDI. A recurring theme, implicit rather than explicit, was the knowledge role of national development banks. Why this matters. @gvagrad.bsky.social
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Reposted by Ugo Panizza
Anna Gelpern @agelpern.bsky.social · 24/04/2026
Wonderful to catch up with old friends at #ASILAM. For all #sovereigndebt nerds, the big reveal is coming, clues below… #DebtCon #DebtCon9 #DebtCon4Ever #publicdebtispublic @laynamosley.bsky.social @upanizza.bsky.social @mkessler.bsky.social @phverdier.bsky.social @publicdebtispublic.bsky.social
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Reposted by Ugo Panizza
VoxEU @ CEPR @voxeu.org · 29/04/2026
@upanizza.bsky.social provides operational guidance on the use of blended finance. The policy recommendations depend on the nature of the market failure & the instrument. He argues that practitioners should resist the instinct to eliminate all risk from a project. cepr.org/voxeu/column... #EconSky
Achieving sustainable development goals needs blended finance, where public money is used to crowd in larger private capital flows. The catalytic multiplier is a central metric, which is the increase in total project size per dollar of public expenditure. This column uses a model to provide operational guidance on the use of blended finance. The policy recommendations depend on the nature of the market failure (production externality, financial frictions, or credit rationing) and the instrument (subsidised loans or credit guarantees). Furthermore, it argues that practitioners should resist the instinct to eliminate all risk from a project.
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Reposted by Ugo Panizza
Ugo Panizza @upanizza.bsky.social · 18/04/2026
1/ Why economists like models (with an homage to Jorge Luis Borges) After I posted a paper on the catalytic effect of blended finance, I got some pushback on the idea that a unified analytical framework is useful at all. 🧵
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Ugo Panizza @upanizza.bsky.social · 18/04/2026
1/ Why economists like models (with an homage to Jorge Luis Borges) After I posted a paper on the catalytic effect of blended finance, I got some pushback on the idea that a unified analytical framework is useful at all. 🧵
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Ugo Panizza @upanizza.bsky.social · 14/04/2026
1/ Bank/Fund Spring Meetings are underway. Blended finance — using concessional public funds to crowd in private capital for the SDGs — is front and centre. But do we really know which instruments work best, and when? A new paper of mine tries to answer this. 🧵
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Reposted by Ugo Panizza
VoxEU @ CEPR @voxeu.org · 07/04/2026
Ka Lok Wong, @markya.bsky.social‬ & @upanizza.bsky.social study sovereign bond issuance events across 20 EMDEs. The majority of issuance is in local currency and has a maturity of 5 years or less. Deep domestic bond markets are key for macroeconomic resilience. cepr.org/voxeu/column... #EconSky
This figure plots the evolution of total government bond issuance (in billion US dollars) over the period 2000-2023. The orange bars show Chinese central government bond issuance and the blue bars show central government bond issuance by the other 19 countries in our dataset.

Emerging market debt has surged since the pandemic, renewing concerns about rollover risk and fiscal vulnerability. This column uses a new auction-level dataset covering sovereign bond issuance events across 20 emerging markets to study the evolution, currency composition, and maturity of emerging market bond issuance. The majority of issuance is in local currency and has a maturity of five years or less. Furthermore, local-currency borrowing is mainly driven by rollover needs, while foreign-currency issuance is timed around global financial conditions. These findings underscore the importance of developing deep domestic bond markets as core infrastructure for macroeconomic resilience.
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Ugo Panizza @upanizza.bsky.social · 28/03/2026
Over the past few weeks I have been talking with @emilypeck.bsky.social @axios.com about the US Treasury market. I love her Rom-com title. As @laynamosley.bsky.social says the perfect rom-com for debt nerds www.axios.com/2026/03/26/t...
axios.com
The U.S. Treasury market is like a rom-com
Why haven't bond investors penalized the U.S.?
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Ugo Panizza @upanizza.bsky.social · 08/03/2026
This is couple of blocks from my mother-in-law’s apartment. It is the first time thy hit so close to her
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Ugo Panizza @upanizza.bsky.social · 06/03/2026
Updates from Beirut Just spoke with my sister-in-law. They stay in the corridor, away from windows. It's cold but windows are kept open day and night so bomb vibrations don't shatter the glass. And they are among the lucky ones. We live in a horrible world.
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Reposted by Ugo Panizza
Ugo Panizza @upanizza.bsky.social · 01/03/2026
1/7🧵 New paper "Too Much Finance Redux" with Jean-Louis Arcand and Enrico Berkes — a follow-up to over a decade of work on whether financial deepening can go too far. Here's the story: @gvagrad.bsky.social
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Ugo Panizza @upanizza.bsky.social · 01/03/2026
1/7🧵 New paper "Too Much Finance Redux" with Jean-Louis Arcand and Enrico Berkes — a follow-up to over a decade of work on whether financial deepening can go too far. Here's the story: @gvagrad.bsky.social
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Reposted by Ugo Panizza
Robin Wigglesworth @robinwigglesworth.ft.com · 18/02/2026
“Outside of the Pentagon, the operational capacity of the federal government has been destroyed.” Interesting reading from @dandrezner.bsky.social danieldrezner.substack.com/p/the-slow-m...
danieldrezner.substack.com
The DHS Death Spiral
So many knives in backs and so much tea to spill and so many more knives in backs!
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Ugo Panizza @upanizza.bsky.social · 15/02/2026
Closing lunch for Finance and Development Conference at the Terrasse de la Paix at the @gvagrad.bsky.social with beautiful view of the Alps and Lake Geneva
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Ugo Panizza @upanizza.bsky.social · 15/02/2026
Mitu on Salesian bonds (apparently the first true Eurobonds dating back to 1734 papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
papers.ssrn.com
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Reposted by Ugo Panizza
VoxEU @ CEPR @voxeu.org · 06/02/2026
VoxTalks Economics episode: What should Europe do about Trump? @wederdim.bsky.social and @upanizza.bsky.social @gvagrad.bsky.social talk with @talknormal.co.uk about Europe’s options in response to recent #US policy shifts — from trade to geopolitical strategy. 👉 cepr.org/multimedia/w... #EconSky
VoxTalks Economics episode: What should Europe do about Trump?

Beatrice Weder di Mauro and Ugo Panizza of the Graduate Institute Geneva talk with Tim Phillips about Europe’s options in response to recent US policy shifts — from trade to geopolitical strategy.
👉 https://cepr.org/multimedia/what-should-europe-do-about-trump
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Ugo Panizza @upanizza.bsky.social · 05/02/2026
New substack by Lant Pritchett 100% must read lantpritchett.substack.com
lantpritchett.substack.com
Lant Pritchett | Substack
development economist. Click to read Lant Pritchett, a Substack publication with hundreds of subscribers.
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Ugo Panizza @upanizza.bsky.social · 05/02/2026
there are smart and compassionate leaders and there are leaders who are neither www.nytimes.com/2026/02/04/o...
nytimes.com
Opinion | I’m the Prime Minister of Spain. This Is Why the West Needs Migrants.
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Reposted by Ugo Panizza
VoxEU @ CEPR @voxeu.org · 30/01/2026
The role of human capital and deep financial markets for the effectiveness of FDI has weakened since the turn of the century. The growth effects of FDI vary dramatically across sectors, A Bénétrix, H Pallan, & @upanizza.bsky.social explain. cepr.org/voxeu/column... #EconSky
Existing evidence indicates that foreign direct investment promotes growth only when host economies have the human capital and deep financial markets to absorb spillovers. This column documents how the role of these conditions has weakened since the turn of the century. The authors also demonstrate how the growth effects of foreign direct investment vary dramatically across sectors, with a positive effect in the services sector, no significant effect in manufacturing, and a negative effect in services. Finally, they show that the association between foreign investment and growth is strongest in country-sectors with low participation in global value chains, and that the type of participation matters too.
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Ugo Panizza @upanizza.bsky.social · 30/01/2026
FDI and growth in the age of global value chains New @voxeu.org piece with Agustin Benetrix and Hayley Pallan @cepr.org @gvagrad.bsky.social cepr.org/voxeu/column...
cepr.org
FDI and growth in the age of global value chains
Existing evidence indicates that foreign direct investment promotes growth only when host economies have the human capital and deep financial markets to absorb spillovers. This column documents how the role of these conditions has weakened since the turn of the century. The authors also demonstrate how the growth effects of foreign direct investment vary dramatically across sectors, with a positive effect in the primary sector, no significant effect in manufacturing, and a negative effect in services. Finally, they show that the association between foreign investment and growth is strongest in country-sectors with low participation in global value chains, and that the type of participation matters too.
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Ugo Panizza @upanizza.bsky.social · 21/01/2026
1/ Mark Carney’s #WEF speech is a sharp reminder of what is really at stake in Davos this year: the accelerating breakdown of the traditional rules-based international order.
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Reposted by Ugo Panizza
VoxEU @ CEPR @voxeu.org · 21/01/2026
New VoxTalks Economics w/ @talknormal.co.uk: Is US debt sustainable? Recorded at the CEPR Annual Symposium, @upanizza.bsky.social @gvagrad.bsky.social and @antoniofatas.bsky.social discuss rising US debt, recent fiscal policy, and the limits of delay. Listen here: cepr.org/multimedia/u... #EconSky
New VoxTalks Economics: Is US debt sustainable?

Recorded at the CEPR Annual Symposium, Ugo Panizza and Antonio Fatás discuss rising US debt, recent fiscal policy, and the limits of delay.

Listen here: https://cepr.org/multimedia/us-debt-sustainable
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Ugo Panizza @upanizza.bsky.social · 18/01/2026
1/🌍 Geneva lunch briefing — 26 Jan 2026 The Economic Consequences of the Second Trump Administration (CCIG) & @gvagrad.bsky.social Trump’s second term is reshaping the US economy — with major spillovers for Europe, emerging markets, and the global order.
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Ugo Panizza @upanizza.bsky.social · 15/01/2026
1/ New paper with Agustín Bénétrix and Hayley Pallan: “The Elusive Link Between FDI and Economic Growth: Sectoral Heterogeneity and Global Value Chains.” FDI is everywhere in policy debates… @gvagrad.bsky.social ideas.repec.org/p/tcd/tcduee...
ideas.repec.org
The Elusive Link Between FDI and Economic Growth: Sectoral H
This paper reassesses the relationship between foreign direct investment (FDI) and economic growth in emerging and developing economies. Using cross-country data, it first shows that the relationship
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Ugo Panizza @upanizza.bsky.social · 10/01/2026
1/ In 2012, Jean-Louis Arcand, Enrico Berkes and I issued an IMF WP: “Too Much Finance?” It shows that finance supports growth up to a point but at some point more finance can hurt The road to publication wasn’t smooth. The paper received many desk rejections… ideas.repec.org/p/imf/imfwpa...
ideas.repec.org
Too Much Finance?
This paper examines whether there is a threshold above which financial development no longer has a positive effect on economic growth. We use different empirical approaches to show that there can inde
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Ugo Panizza @upanizza.bsky.social · 30/12/2025
ho iniziato a tradurre in italiano la mia pagina web www.upanizza.com/it
upanizza.com
Professor of economics | Ugo Panizza | Switzerland
Thi page is about Ugo Panizza, Professor of Economics at the Graduate Institute Geneva
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Centre for Economic Policy Research @cepr.org · 23/12/2025
Top CEPR Publications of 2025: The Economic Consequences of the Second Trump Administration: A Preliminary Assessment Gary Gensler, Simon Johnson, Ugo Panizza, Beatrice Weder di Mauro ow.ly/8FKf50XM9Jc #2025inReview #EconSky
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Ugo Panizza @upanizza.bsky.social · 15/12/2025
Public Investment Quality and Sovering Risk (with Amat Adarov) is now out in JIMF @gvagrad.bsky.social
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VoxEU @ CEPR @voxeu.org · 08/12/2025
The US now actively challenges the institutions and norms it created. We are moving towards a world with higher trade barriers, weaker institutions, and more fragile growth. Gary Gensler, @simonhrjohnson.bsky.social @upanizza.bsky.social @wederdim.bsky.social cepr.org/voxeu/column... #EconSky
The US – once the principal architect and guarantor of the rules-based international system – now actively challenges the institutions and norms it created. While policies are evolving, the second edition of the CEPR book, “The Economic Consequences of the Second Trump Administration”, reveals that the direction of travel is unmistakable: towards a world with higher trade barriers, weaker institutions, and more fragile growth.
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Ugo Panizza @upanizza.bsky.social · 06/12/2025
I am a big fan if CORE and it was great giving the award to Wendy
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Centre for Economic Policy Research @cepr.org · 06/12/2025
Following her fireside chat on the Future of Higher Education CEPR is proud to announce Wendy Carlin was awarded the Lifetime Service to the Profession for her contributions to The CORE Project, increasing access and changing the way economics is taught. Our heartfelt congratulations to Wendy!
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Ugo Panizza @upanizza.bsky.social · 06/12/2025
Great chairing this pane with Gary Gensler, Thierry Mayer @thierry-mayer.bsky.social, Kenichi Ueda, and Beatrice Weder di Mauro @wederdim.bsky.social @gvagrad.bsky.social.
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Reposted by Ugo Panizza
Centre for Economic Policy Research @cepr.org · 06/12/2025
In her fireside chat w/ @upanizza.bsky.social, Wendy Carlin (UCL) discussed the story of the CORE project. She gave advice for econ professors who face #AI in the classroom: use AI for learning at a personalised rate & don’t be afraid of thinking outside the box for imaginative classroom activities.
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VoxEU @ CEPR @voxeu.org · 04/12/2025
Gary Gensler, @simonhrjohnson.bsky.social @upanizza.bsky.social @wederdim.bsky.social discuss the revised & expanded edition of The Economic Consequences of The Second Trump Administration & how Trump's actions undermine his stated goal to "Make America Great Again" cepr.org/voxeu/column... #EconSky
As soon as he took office for the second time, Donald Trump made it clear that there would be dramatic changes in US government policy. This column describes how President Trump’s actions may have undermined his stated goal to “Make America Great Again” with low inflation and high rates of growth and employment. Instead, the policies seem more likely to deliver additional frustration and disappointment for most Americans.
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Jonathan B. Baker @jbbecon.bsky.social · 02/12/2025
Includes an update to my chapter on Competition Policy. Free to download at cepr.org/publications/books-and-reports/economic-consequences-second-trump-administration-preliminary
cepr.org
The Economic Consequences of The Second Trump Administration: A Preliminary Assessment
==> REVISED & EXPANDED EDITION
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Ugo Panizza @upanizza.bsky.social · 02/12/2025
The second edition of the Economic Consequences of the Second Trump Administration published by @cepr.org and edited with @simonhrjohnson.bsky.social Gary Gensler and @wederdim.bsky.social is now out @gvagrad.bsky.social It can be downloaded here: cepr.org/publications...
cepr.org
The Economic Consequences of The Second Trump Administration: A Preliminary Assessment
==> REVISED & EXPANDED EDITION
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Ugo Panizza @upanizza.bsky.social · 02/12/2025
The second edition of the Economic Consequences of the Second Trump Administration published by @cepr.org and edited with @simonhrjohnson.bsky.social Gary Gensler and @wederdim.bsky.social is now out @gvagrad.bsky.social It can be downloaded here: cepr.org/publications...
cepr.org
The Economic Consequences of The Second Trump Administration: A Preliminary Assessment
==> REVISED & EXPANDED EDITION
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Ugo Panizza @upanizza.bsky.social · 29/11/2025
First day of skiing season and we have pow
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Ugo Panizza @upanizza.bsky.social · 27/11/2025
Happy Thanksgiving to all my American friends
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Reposted by Ugo Panizza
VoxDev @voxdev.bsky.social · 20/11/2025
🆕 Africa’s domestic debt boom: New evidence from the African Debt Database Today on VoxDev via VoxEU @ CEPR w/ Mark Manger (UofT), Ugo Panizza (Geneva Graduate Institute), Niccolò Rescia (Global Sovereign Advisory), Christoph Trebesch (Kiel) & Ka Lok Wong (Steve) (UN): ow.ly/gsIr50XuzLM
ow.ly
Africa’s domestic debt boom: New evidence from the African Debt Database
Africa’s total public debt has risen more than fourfold since the early 2000s, but just as important as the increase in debt volumes is the shift in structure. This column uses a new open-access dataset covering more than 50,000 loans and securities issued by 54 African countries to reveal that African governments now raise more than half of their financing at home, reversing decades of dependence on external lenders. While the rise of domestic debt markets may deepen financial systems, foster local investor bases, and enhance monetary autonomy, the authors warn that the line between...
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Reposted by Ugo Panizza
VoxEU @ CEPR @voxeu.org · 19/11/2025
A yield discount on green sovereign bonds - a 'greenium' - exists but is very small, ~ 2 basis points in adv. economies & 13 bp in emerging markets. The greenium rises when climate risks are salient. @upanizza.bsky.social, S Shi, @wederdim.bsky.social, M Gulati cepr.org/voxeu/column... #EconSky
The two panels show the evolution of the greenium (a more negative value indicates a larger greenium). Each point shows the estimated greenium (with 95% confidence interval) for the previous 120 days obtained from a model that controls the bid-to-ask spread, the log of the bond face value, remaining time to maturity (in days), pair-date fixed effects. Standard errors are clustered at the bond level. The left panel uses all bonds, the right only bonds issued by emerging markets (EM).

Since 2016, many governments have issued ‘green’ debt instruments to support the transition to a low-carbon economy. This column shows that a yield discount on green sovereign bonds, or ‘greenium’, exists but is very small, around two basis points in advanced economies and 13 basis points in emerging markets. Still, the greenium rises when climate transition risks are salient and for issuers more vulnerable to climate change. Going forward, governments and international institutions should strengthen the credibility of green-bond frameworks, integrate climate priorities into the budget process, while also recognising that sovereign green bonds are not a fiscal panacea.
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Ugo Panizza @upanizza.bsky.social · 18/11/2025
Very proud of my sister who just won an underwater photography award with this beautiful picture
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Ugo Panizza @upanizza.bsky.social · 17/11/2025
Join us tomorrow @gvagrad.bsky.social
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Ugo Panizza @upanizza.bsky.social · 11/11/2025
Alexander Swoboda touched played a key role in putting the @gvagrad.bsky.social on the map in international economics, he created the International Center for Monetary and Banking Studies, he "discovered" Rudi Dornbusch, and he is a great friend www.graduateinstitute.ch/enduring-leg...
graduateinstitute.ch
Alexander Swoboda
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Kiel Institut @kiel.institute · 10/11/2025
How does the quality of public investment affect sovereign risk? Join the next Kiel-@cepr.org Research Seminar w/ @upanizza.bsky.social to find out! He presents a new index measuring the quality of public investment covering 120 economies over 2000–2021 Register 👉 www.kielinstitut.de/institute/ev...
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Ugo Panizza @upanizza.bsky.social · 09/11/2025
Basel
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Ugo Panizza @upanizza.bsky.social · 06/11/2025
1/ Over the past decade, sovereign green bonds have gone from curiosity to commonplace. 🌍💶 Since Poland’s 2016 debut, >30 governments have issued debt labelled as “green.” But do these bonds actually lower borrowing costs? @gvagrad.bsky.social @gvagrad-hcgs.bsky.social
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