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Tomás Varnet Pérez

@tvarnetperez.bsky.social

Causal inference, statistics and mental health. PhD @ Norwegian Institute of Public Health (NIPH) and Oslo Centre for Biostatistics and Epidemiology (OCBE)

Posts Replies Media

Reposted by Tomás Varnet Pérez

NBER @nber.org · 28/08/2025

On Chile's national college common app platform, smart personalized info/assistance helped cut mistakes and boosting placements into higher-ranked programs by 20 percent, from Tomás Larroucau, Ignacio A. Rios, Anaïs Fabre, and Christopher Neilson www.nber.org/papers/w34164

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Reposted by Tomás Varnet Pérez

Richard McElreath 🐈‍⬛ @rmcelreath.bsky.social · 27/08/2025

This is one of those probability facts that drives my usual advice to people seeking intution for probability theory: Stop seeking intuition! It's not intuitive, and that's why it is so useful. You can learn examples and reform your intution in time. But better to just trust the axioms and compute.

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Tomás Varnet Pérez @tvarnetperez.bsky.social · 07/08/2025

Another exhibit to the underappreciated importance of 'idle' activities for insights and connections.

Excerpt from an Interview with Jamie Robins (2022):

"While waiting to cross a street in 1988, I suddenly realized how to construct a model that satisfied all my requirements - the structural nested failure time model (SNFTM)"

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Reposted by Tomás Varnet Pérez

Mark Elliott @thatmarkelliott.bsky.social · 30/06/2025

"To be clear, no one is saying correlation implies causation ... but it seems reasonable to assume that it does." Thanks, Guardian.

From the Guardian:

To be clear, no one is saying a weak grip will kill you directly, in the way that heart failure will. But it usually indicates problems far beyond your hands and wrists. We don’t yet have the scientific studies to back this up, but it seems reasonable to assume that anything that improves it will also improve your overall health. It will certainly improve your quality of life.

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Tomás Varnet Pérez @tvarnetperez.bsky.social · 20/06/2025

"According to the CDC, in 10 percent of those drownings, the adult will actually watch the child do it, having no idea it is happening."

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Tomás Varnet Pérez @tvarnetperez.bsky.social · 19/06/2025

Text from Philip Stark article 'Pay no attention to the model behind the curtain' (2022):

Yep, the ‘facts.’ They proceed to estimate the effect that climate change will have on mortality, crop yields, energy use, the labor force, and crime, at the level of individual counties in the United States
through the year 2099. They claim to be using an ‘evidence-based approach.’ ^35

Footnote 35: To my eye, their approach is ‘evidence-based’ in the same sense that alien abduction movies are ‘based on a true story.’.

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Reposted by Tomás Varnet Pérez

Jeroen Baert @jbaert.bsky.social · 06/05/2025

We're so not ready for the AI slop deluge. $119 Springer cancer treatments book: ‘As an AI language model …’ – Pivot to AI

pivot-to-ai.com

$119 Springer cancer treatments book: ‘As an AI language model …’

Peter Purgathofer looked over “Advanced Nanovaccines for Cancer Immunotherapy” by Nanasaheb Thorat, published in March by Springer Nature. On page 25, he found why we pay Springer the big bucks: [h…

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Tomás Varnet Pérez @tvarnetperez.bsky.social · 03/04/2025

📝 New Publication: A very complete paper by @johandh2o.bsky.social & co., which could perfectly work as a review of SCM and m-graphs, but ventures further to extend the conditions under which we can correct for selection bias via regression (and even propose multiply-robust targeted estimators!).

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Tomás Varnet Pérez @tvarnetperez.bsky.social · 27/03/2025

#rough

"This book is dedicated to every person who ever aspired to a career in academic science or social science, who was committed to truthseeking, and who was forced out of such a career because they could not successfully compete with the superstars who produced highly funded, highly cited, highly influential but ultimately invalid research."

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Tomás Varnet Pérez @tvarnetperez.bsky.social · 21/02/2025

ADHD medication might improve learning much less than you would expect. 💊 Our new pretest-posttest control group design target trial emulation on the long-term effects of ADHD medication, together with Kristin Romvig Øvergaard, Arnoldo Frigessi & @guidobiele.bsky.social, has just been published. 🧵

academic.oup.com

Long-term effect of pharmacological treatment on academic achievement of Norwegian children diagnosed with ADHD: a target trial emulation

AbstractBackground. Attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) is one of the most commonly diagnosed mental disorders in children. For many patients,

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