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Johan de Aguas

@johandh2o.bsky.social
121 followers 589 following 14 posts

PhD Student at UiO, Researcher at NIPH, Fulbright Scholar, Statistician, Economist, Industrial Engineer. Web: johandh2o.github.io

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Reposted by Johan de Aguas
NPR @npr.org · 15/09/2025
It is not the first time such on-the-nose grief has been observed in this endangered population. In January, orca J35 carried a dead baby for at least five days. J35 had previously made world headlines in 2018 when she carried her dead calf for 17 days and 1,000 miles. From @kuow.org
kuow.org
Orca mom carries dead newborn calf in San Juans
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Reposted by Johan de Aguas
Scott McGrath @smcgrath.phd · 03/09/2025
"World models," internal AI simulations of reality, are again at the forefront of AI research. While today's LLMs use a fragile patchwork of heuristics, developing true world models is seen as essential for creating robust and adaptable intelligence. #MLSky
quantamagazine.org
‘World Models,’ an Old Idea in AI, Mount a Comeback | Quanta Magazine
You’re carrying around in your head a model of how the world works. Will AI systems need to do the same?
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Reposted by Johan de Aguas
arxiv.stat.ME @arxiv-stat-me.bsky.social · 01/09/2025
Susan Athey, Guido Imbens, Zhaonan Qu, Davide Viviano Triply Robust Panel Estimators arxiv.org/abs/2508.21536
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Reposted by Johan de Aguas
ArXiv Paperboy (Stat.ME+Econ.EM) @paperposterbot.bsky.social · 19/06/2025
link 📈🤖 Causal inference amid missingness-specific independencies and mechanism shifts (Aguas, Henckel, Pensar et al) The recovery of causal effects in structural models with missing data often relies on $m$-graphs, which assume that missingness mechanisms do not directly influence substantive va
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Reposted by Johan de Aguas
arxiv.stat.ME @arxiv-stat-me.bsky.social · 19/06/2025
Johan de Aguas, Leonard Henckel, Johan Pensar, Guido Biele Causal inference amid missingness-specific independencies and mechanism shifts arxiv.org/abs/2506.15441
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Guido Biele @guidobiele.bsky.social · 18/06/2025
Sometimes psychologists collaborate with causal inference experts and use it for their research, here the probability of benefit or harm of ADHD medication for school outcomes: arxiv.org/abs/2502.10049 All math by @johandh2o.bsky.social
share.google
The Probability of Tiered Benefit: Partial Identification with Robust and Stable Inference
We define the Probability of Tiered Benefit in scenarios with a binary exposure and an outcome that is either categorical with $K \geq 2$ ordered tiers or continuous partitioned by $K-1$ fixed thresho...
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Johan de Aguas @johandh2o.bsky.social · 29/05/2025
I loved this conversation of Neil deGrasse Tyson and Grant Sanderson about the hardest math problems: www.youtube.com/watch?v=7DEW...
youtube.com
Tackling the Biggest Unsolved Problems in Math with 3Blue1Brown
YouTube video by StarTalk
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Johan de Aguas @johandh2o.bsky.social · 16/05/2025
A new paradigm in math is coming. AI will push it toward a form of neointuitionism and hermeneutic practice, where proofs and math objects are sampled from a system, whether social or artificial, and then interpreted by humans (as in social sciences). www.quantamagazine.org/mathematical...
quantamagazine.org
Mathematical Beauty, Truth and Proof in the Age of AI | Quanta Magazine
Mathematicians have started to prepare for a profound shift in what it means to do mathematics.
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Johan de Aguas @johandh2o.bsky.social · 21/04/2025
Does one have to be a genius to do math? “NO. To make good and useful contributions to math, one does need to work hard, learn one’s field well, learn other fields and tools, ask questions, talk to other mathematicians, and think about the BIG picture" terrytao.wordpress.com/career-advic...
terrytao.wordpress.com
Does one have to be a genius to do maths?
Better beware of notions like genius and inspiration; they are a sort of magic wand and should be used sparingly by anybody who wants to see things clearly. (José Ortega y Gasset, “Notes on t…
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Johan de Aguas @johandh2o.bsky.social · 20/04/2025
Many people, especially those untrained, truly believe doing math is just about following strict rules to manipulate symbols on paper. It's more about imagining, playing a naïve for the obvious, and breaking the rules along the way. www.quantamagazine.org/mathematical...
quantamagazine.org
Mathematical Thinking Isn’t What You Think It Is | Quanta Magazine
The mathematician David Bessis claims that everyone is capable of, and can benefit greatly from, mathematical thinking.
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Reposted by Johan de Aguas
Tomás Varnet Pérez @tvarnetperez.bsky.social · 21/02/2025
ADHD medication might improve learning much less than you would expect. 💊 Our new pretest-posttest control group design target trial emulation on the long-term effects of ADHD medication, together with Kristin Romvig Øvergaard, Arnoldo Frigessi & @guidobiele.bsky.social, has just been published. 🧵
academic.oup.com
Long-term effect of pharmacological treatment on academic achievement of Norwegian children diagnosed with ADHD: a target trial emulation
AbstractBackground. Attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) is one of the most commonly diagnosed mental disorders in children. For many patients,
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Johan de Aguas @johandh2o.bsky.social · 01/04/2025
Recovery and inference of causal effects with sequential adjustment for confounding and attrition - Read on: www.degruyter.com/document/doi...
degruyter.com
Recovery and inference of causal effects with sequential adjustment for confounding and attrition
Confounding bias and selection bias bring two significant challenges to the validity of conclusions drawn from applied causal inference. The latter can stem from informative missingness, such as in ca...
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Reposted by Johan de Aguas
ELLIS @ellis.eu · 25/03/2025
🏹 Job alert: CISPA Helmholtz Center for Information Security is seeking Tenure-Track Faculty in all areas related to Information Security and Artificial Intelligence (f/m/d). 📍 St. Ingbert, near Saarbrücken 🇩🇪 📅 Apply by April 8 🔗 More info: bit.ly/4i12JV7
bit.ly
Tenure-Track Faculty in all areas related to Information Security and Artificial Intelligence (f/m/d) - extended call | CISPA | Jobs
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Reposted by Johan de Aguas
The New York Times @nytimes.com · 10/03/2025
Decades from now, the Covid-19 pandemic will be visible in the historical data of nearly anything measurable today. Here’s an incomplete collection of charts that capture that break — across the economy, health care, education, work, family life and more.
nytimes.com
30 Charts That Show How Everything Changed in March 2020
It can be easy to forget, or look away from, the pain and disruption of the pandemic. The numbers will be there to remind us.
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Johan de Aguas @johandh2o.bsky.social · 08/03/2025
I think one misconception about CI is that is about theory-building. It’s not. It’s about the logical tools to deduce hypothetical changes on already built world-models/theories. Neither CI nor the used models/theories (as in physics) imply the laws of nature.
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Johan de Aguas @johandh2o.bsky.social · 08/03/2025
Karl Pearson was a ferviente opponent of causal language because it invites metaphysics into science. Similar criticism of “subjectivity” have faced Quantum Mechanics and Bayesian Statistics. More than objectivity, utility should be valued
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Johan de Aguas @johandh2o.bsky.social · 07/03/2025
Internally valid RCTs are relevant, even essential, for scientific discovery. When externally valid, they provide valuable insights for policy design targeting reference populations. Science is not only about discovery: it’s also about world-model building, testing and explaining
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Reposted by Johan de Aguas
Sam Power @spmontecarlo.bsky.social · 05/03/2025
JOB OPENING at University of Bristol: -- Lecturer in Statistics or Machine Learning -- (x 2 positions available) -- application deadline: 31 March, 2025 Details at www.bristol.ac.uk/jobs/find/de... Come join us!
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Pierre Alquier @pierrealquier.bsky.social · 05/03/2025
I already advertised for this document when I posted it on arXiv, and later when it was published. This week, with the agreement of the publisher, I uploaded the published version on arXiv. Less typos, more references and additional sections including PAC-Bayes Bernstein. arxiv.org/abs/2110.11216
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Carola Doerr @caroladoerr.bsky.social · 04/03/2025
Job alert: full-time researcher position for AI with CNRS here in France. Initial contract for 5 years (tenure track). Attractive starting package and better salary than regular positions. I have been w/ @cnrs.fr since 2013, it's great! Applications due 31/03 www.ins2i.cnrs.fr/en/cnrsinfo/...
ins2i.cnrs.fr
Choose France - CNRS AI Rising Talents
As part of the French Strategy in Artificial Intelligence (AI), the Choose France - CNRS AI Rising Talents program offers exceptionally tal
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ELLIS @ellis.eu · 04/03/2025
🏹 Job alert: @eng.cam.ac.uk is seeking a Uni Asst. Professor in #MachineLearning in the Computational and Biological Learning Lab (CBL) to lead a research programme and teach. 📍 Cambridge, England 📅 Apply by 16 March 2025 🔗 Get details at bit.ly/4khlntY
bit.ly
University Assistant Professor in Machine Learning - Job Opportunities - University of Cambridge
University Assistant Professor in Machine Learning in the Department of Engineering at the University of Cambridge.
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Aleksander Molak @alxndrmlk.bsky.social · 26/02/2025
It's time to Make Causality Less Sectarian Again (Was it less sectarian before though?) #causalsky #episky #statsky #mlsky I make an attempt to present causality as a framework here: bit.ly/41v2ix7 Thoughts?
bit.ly
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Johan de Aguas @johandh2o.bsky.social · 26/02/2025
Hardcore causal experimentalists are weirdly religious. They renounce math and notation, and seriously think randomization alone can explain the laws of nature. Bless their hearts.
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Helsinki Institute for Information Technology @icthiit.bsky.social · 21/01/2025
We are now accepting applications for Postdoctoral Fellows (3 years) or Research Fellows (5 years) in ICT. Deadline 2 February at 11:59 PM Finnish time Find out more information @ shorturl.at/uMk4i #postdocjob #postdoc #artificialintelligence #datascience #bioinformatics #algorithms #AcademicSky
shorturl.at
HIIT Postdoctoral and Research Fellow positions
Apply now HIIT Research Fellow and Postdoctoral Fellow Positions in ICT The Helsinki Institute for Information Technology (HIIT) invites applications for Postdoctoral Fellows and Research Fellows. HI...
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Samuel Kaski @samikaski.bsky.social · 20/01/2025
I am hiring in my machine learning group, DL February 2, 2025 Postdocs in Helsinki: www.aalto.fi/en/open-posi... Topic: combinations of the following: - foundations of (prob) ML - beyond current distribution shift models - AI-assistance with computationally rational user models - appl: eng bio etc
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David Rolnick @drolnick.bsky.social · 10/01/2025
Internship in our group at Mila in reinforcement learning + graphs for reducing energy use in buildings. More info and submit an application by Jan 13 here: forms.gle/TCChXnvSAHqz... Questions? Email donna.vakalis@mila.quebec with [intern!] in the subject line.
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Thiago Serra @thserra.bsky.social · 27/11/2024
Looking for a great place to pursue a Ph.D. at the crossroads of data science, machine learning & mathematical optimization? Apply to Iowa’s Business Analytics program! For more information: tippie.uiowa.edu/phd/phd-busi... If you would like to work with me in MIP+ML: {first}-{last}@uiowa.edu
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Simon Batzner @simonbatzner.bsky.social · 25/11/2024
We're hiring! Our team at Google DeepMind is looking for a research engineer to join us. More details in the link below. boards.greenhouse.io/deepmind/job...
boards.greenhouse.io
Research Engineer, Materials Science
London, UK
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Reposted by Johan de Aguas
Boris Sobolev @sobor.bsky.social · 20/11/2024
There’s this misconception that 'causality is in the design.' Apart from being uninformed, this assertion is fed by a bigger fallacy: that causality is a product of our mind rather than a feature of the material world. Pearl’s major contribution is grounding causality in materialism.
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