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Tracking Trump's Economy

@trackingecontrump.bsky.social
7 followers 30 following 38 posts

Tracking with as real time data as possible how much worse Trump is making the US economy. (Since 4th March 2025) Tesla shares since Nov 4th: up 14.9% (vs 97.6% at peak) Trump coin: $13.74 vs $74.34 at launch AM 6th March

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Reposted by Tracking Trump's Economy
Carl Quintanilla @carlquintanilla.bsky.social · 14/03/2025
LOL B of A calls it the “Bro Bubble” 🇺🇸
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Catherine Rampell @crampell.bsky.social · 14/03/2025
Consumer sentiment plummeted in March, with declines seen consistently across all groups by age, education, income, wealth, political affiliations (D & R), geographic regions. Sentiment has now fallen for three consecutive months and is currently down 22% from December 2024. 🧵 www.sca.isr.umich.edu
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Tracking Trump's Economy @trackingecontrump.bsky.social · 11/03/2025
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Tracking Trump's Economy @trackingecontrump.bsky.social · 10/03/2025
Tesla shares currently worth less than they were on November 4th
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Reposted by Tracking Trump's Economy
The Guardian @theguardian.com · 09/03/2025
‘I hate to predict things’: Trump doesn’t rule out US recession amid trade tariffs
theguardian.com
‘I hate to predict things’: Trump doesn’t rule out US recession amid trade tariffs
President downplays recent stock market volatility that followed his ducking and weaving over tariff policy Donald Trump on Sunday refused to rule out the possibility that the US economy will head into recession this year and that inflation will rise, as…
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Tracking Trump's Economy @trackingecontrump.bsky.social · 09/03/2025
If you jumped on Tesla shared around or after the election you aren't too pleased at the moment.... #Tesla #Elon
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Tracking Trump's Economy @trackingecontrump.bsky.social · 08/03/2025
Bringing new negative investment to America www.msn.com/en-us/money/...
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Carl Quintanilla @carlquintanilla.bsky.social · 07/03/2025
RENMAC: “.. The average workweek for private education and health services remains at a cycle low. Little need to boost bodies. Yet, this sector has been responsible for half the private jobs growth in the last couple of months. What happens when education & health payroll growth slows?” 🇺🇸
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Tracking Trump's Economy @trackingecontrump.bsky.social · 07/03/2025
Jobs report steady, if unimpressive (lowest addition in February since 2019) data.bls.gov/timeseries/c...
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Financial Times @financialtimes.com · 07/03/2025
Euro on course for best week since 2009 www.ft.com/content/5342aea8-504b-4e…
ft.com
Euro on course for best week since 2009
Hopes for stronger economic growth fuel sharp recovery as dollar weakens
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Tracking Trump's Economy @trackingecontrump.bsky.social · 07/03/2025
www.usatoday.com/story/money/... Throwing out a free policy platform for Democrats, lifted from the MAGA platform on aid: let's stop spending money all the way out there in space and spend it back here at home
usatoday.com
Elon Musk wants to cut government spending. Tesla and SpaceX benefit from it
Over the last 16 years, Musk's business deals with the government total nearly $20 billion, according to federal contracting data.
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Tracking Trump's Economy @trackingecontrump.bsky.social · 07/03/2025
Hurt a chunk last time we did this
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Tracking Trump's Economy @trackingecontrump.bsky.social · 07/03/2025
1. Claim old deals (that you negotiated) are bad . . . 5. Remove tariffs 6. Put back again 7. Remove again 8. Declare victory over fentanyl
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Tracking Trump's Economy @trackingecontrump.bsky.social · 07/03/2025
Relative to just before the election as well it's now only up around 10-15%, so nearly all his ill-gotten gains are wiped out from backing Trump
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Tracking Trump's Economy @trackingecontrump.bsky.social · 07/03/2025
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Tracking Trump's Economy @trackingecontrump.bsky.social · 07/03/2025
This is always a great sign....
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Reposted by Tracking Trump's Economy
Peterson Institute for International Economics @piie.com · 05/03/2025
President Trump's promises the "largest deportation program in American history," a step targeting unauthorized immigrants. But mass deportations would result in lower US GDP & employment than otherwise through 2040. #PIIECharts
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Tracking Trump's Economy @trackingecontrump.bsky.social · 07/03/2025
While we wait excitedly for the US official inflation data for February in about a week - here is the Cleveland Fed's latest nowcast (Real-time economic forecasting model) of where we are....around 4%
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Tracking Trump's Economy @trackingecontrump.bsky.social · 07/03/2025
And.... www.livemint.com/news/spacexs...
livemint.com
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Tracking Trump's Economy @trackingecontrump.bsky.social · 07/03/2025
And not really since Reagan/Vietnam War
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Tracking Trump's Economy @trackingecontrump.bsky.social · 07/03/2025
Data is World Bank, those guys...
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Tracking Trump's Economy @trackingecontrump.bsky.social · 07/03/2025
Ignoring the huge build up during Reagan, that then immediately phased out after his term, the US hasn't spent above 5% since the Vietnam War (even after 9/11). You could argue the Reagan build up was to challenge the USSR at least, but Trump wants to withdraw from being the world's policeman...
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Tracking Trump's Economy @trackingecontrump.bsky.social · 07/03/2025
One great way to ensure we can't afford social security is to tank growth
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ian bremmer @ianbremmer.com · 06/03/2025
a look at the s&p following the election of recent us presidents:
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Tracking Trump's Economy @trackingecontrump.bsky.social · 07/03/2025
And only slightly above now where it was before Trump was elected - so nearly all his ill-begotten gains are gone
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Tracking Trump's Economy @trackingecontrump.bsky.social · 07/03/2025
Including the US
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Tracking Trump's Economy @trackingecontrump.bsky.social · 07/03/2025
At this stage I'd be impressed with anyone who can remember if the tariffs are in place or not, he's gone back and forth on them so much
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Tracking Trump's Economy @trackingecontrump.bsky.social · 07/03/2025
It gets better, it's worth around 263.45 per share right now, November 5th it was 251....so nearly all the ill-gotten gains from backing a horse are gone
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Tracking Trump's Economy @trackingecontrump.bsky.social · 07/03/2025
The "Economic Policy Uncertainty Index" is creeping up (essentially measures of economic uncertainty mentioned in the news....under the assumption you get your news from...the news)
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Tracking Trump's Economy @trackingecontrump.bsky.social · 07/03/2025
Initial Claims - as promised, though to be fair they have not particularly jumped this week. However, it is worth noting many of the Federal workers let go may not appear in this yet.
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Reposted by Tracking Trump's Economy
Politico @politico.com · 05/03/2025
The Trump administration was ordered to reinstate thousands of fired USDA workers — a blow for its effort to shrink the federal bureaucracy.
politico.com
Trump administration ordered to reinstate thousands of fired USDA workers
The decision is a blow to the Trump administration’s effort to drastically and quickly shrink the federal bureaucracy.
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Reposted by Tracking Trump's Economy
Politico @politico.com · 05/03/2025
President Trump decided to delay a portion of the 25% tariffs he recently imposed on Canada and Mexico for one month at the request of automakers.
politico.com
Trump pauses Canada, Mexico auto tariffs
“We spoke with the big three auto dealers,” White House spokesperson Karoline Leavitt told reporters. “We are going to give a one-month exemption on any autos coming through [the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Ag...
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Tracking Trump's Economy @trackingecontrump.bsky.social · 06/03/2025
New data on new claims for jobless benefits comes out today (i.e. the claim people make when they first separate from an employer to determine eligibility). This is what it looks like at the moment - we'll update as new data is released. #economy #trump #trumpconomy
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Reposted by Tracking Trump's Economy
Dani Rodrik @drodrik.bsky.social · 05/03/2025
We will make mistakes, many mistakes, and keep making them. Hey, we have no idea what we are doing. www.nytimes.com/live/2025/03...
nytimes.com
Trump Live Updates: Supreme Court Rejects Foreign Aid Freeze and Latest Tariff News
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Tracking Trump's Economy @trackingecontrump.bsky.social · 05/03/2025
A post about a specific person in the economy: Elon Musk's wealth is mainly Tesla and SpaceX. The latter is held privately and valued at about $350bn (implied value from a Dec 24 share sale). Every 10% Tesla falls knocks about 4-4.5% off his net worth (based on recreating Forbes calculation)
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Tracking Trump's Economy @trackingecontrump.bsky.social · 05/03/2025
@piie.com produced some nice analysis on the GDP and price impact of the trade wars. Worth noting primarily that while the impact on the US is much smaller, it isn't nothing, and will be felt even more depending on how countries retaliate
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Tracking Trump's Economy @trackingecontrump.bsky.social · 05/03/2025
This is why the generalized tariffs are so odd. It benefits the firms in the sectors that got some competition from imports at the price of higher costs on everything for everyone...wiping out the gains even those people got from the protection. 2/2
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Tracking Trump's Economy @trackingecontrump.bsky.social · 05/03/2025
The trouble with tariffs: is rather like saying you can only buy things from Target it'll really help Target and its employees, at the expense of everyone else. Tariffs protecting a sector, like steel, helps the employees of that sector and the firms. At the expense of costs to everyone else. 1/2
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Tracking Trump's Economy @trackingecontrump.bsky.social · 04/03/2025
USDA data on export markets for soybeans - see the dropoff in the last tariff war in 2018 (not even close to offset by other markets) #trump #economy #exports
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Tracking Trump's Economy @trackingecontrump.bsky.social · 04/03/2025
Just over half of US soybean exports go to China (around $12bn). Last time we did this in 2018 it dropped to $3bn. Prices fell the last week
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Mark Chadbourn @chadbourn.bsky.social · 04/03/2025
Taking the Panama Canal by stealth.
apple.news
BlackRock Strikes $23 Billion Deal for Ports on Both Sides of Panama Canal — The Wall Street Journal
A consortium of investors is buying a majority stake in the ports from CK Hutchison
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Reposted by Tracking Trump's Economy
Kara Swisher @karaswisher.bsky.social · 04/03/2025
Call it by its name: Trumpcession
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Tracking Trump's Economy @trackingecontrump.bsky.social · 04/03/2025
US BEA shows consumer spending down slightly in January (February figures will be a better measure but won't be out until March 28th). #trump #economy #consumption #gdp
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Luke LeBrun @lukelebrun.ca · 03/03/2025
Donald Trump is apparently launching a trade war against Canada tomorrow morning Here's my podcast with Canadian Labour Congress Senior Economist @dtcochrane.bsky.social explaining the impact Trump's tariffs could have on Canadian workers and their communities
pressprogress.ca
Donald Trump’s Tariff War Against Canada
Canadian Labour Congress economist DT Cochrane explains the impact Trump's trade war could have on Canadian workers and their communities
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Tracking Trump's Economy @trackingecontrump.bsky.social · 04/03/2025
Government appears on the production side (for what it produces), the expenditure side (what it spends), and also in the income measure (wages etc). Will go into more on this later, but whatever they mean by removing it will be a) hard; b) mean a large drop in GDP. www.reuters.com/world/us/us-...
reuters.com
US Commerce Secretary wants to remove government spending from GDP
U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said on Sunday he would strip out government spending from the gross domestic product (GDP) report, but gave no indication how soon this change might happen, while dismissing fears of a possible recession.
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Tracking Trump's Economy @trackingecontrump.bsky.social · 04/03/2025
Inflation expectations had a small pickup in February - this data from the Federal Reserve gives what people think inflation will be one year from now. Small pick up is not too significant, but we will keep tracking. #trump #economy #inflation
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Tracking Trump's Economy @trackingecontrump.bsky.social · 04/03/2025
Canada also considering a third round with export tariffs on critical minerals, and something related to energy HT. www.reuters.com/world/americ...
reuters.com
Canada's plan for retaliatory tariffs on the US
Canada's Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said in a Monday evening statement that retaliatory tariffs on the United States would take effect at 12:01 a.m.(0501 GMT) Tuesday in response to U.S. tariffs.
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Tracking Trump's Economy @trackingecontrump.bsky.social · 04/03/2025
*The second tranche* imports from the U.S. such as passenger vehicles and trucks, electric vehicles, steel and aluminum products, fruits and vegetables, aerospace products, beef, pork, and dairy.
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Tracking Trump's Economy @trackingecontrump.bsky.social · 04/03/2025
*The first tranche* of retaliation from Canada includes a list of 1,256 products such as orange juice, peanut butter, wine, spirits, beer, coffee, appliances, apparel, footwear, motorcycles, cosmetics, and pulp and paper. (Approx $30bn worth) #trump
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Joey Politano🏳️‍🌈 @josephpolitano.bsky.social · 04/03/2025
China has announced its tariff retaliation—15% tariffs on US chicken, wheat, corn & cotton, plus a 10% tariff on sorghum, soybeans, pork, beef, aquatic products, fruits, vegetables, & dairy products. China also added several US firms to unreliable entity/export control lists.
Announcement of the State Council Tariff Commission on imposing additional tariffs on some imported goods originating from the United States
Tax Commission Announcement No. 2 of 2025

  On March 3, 2025, the US government announced that it would impose a further 10% tariff on all Chinese goods exported to the US on the grounds of fentanyl. The US's unilateral tariff increase damages the multilateral trading system, increases the burden on US companies and consumers, and undermines the foundation of economic and trade cooperation between China and the US.

  In accordance with the Tariff Law of the People's Republic of China, the Customs Law of the People's Republic of China, the Foreign Trade Law of the People's Republic of China and other laws and regulations and the basic principles of international law, and with the approval of the State Council, additional tariffs will be imposed on some imported goods originating from the United States starting March 10, 2025. The relevant matters are as follows:

  1. A 15% tariff will be imposed on chicken, wheat, corn and cotton. For the specific commodity range, please see Appendix 1.

  2. A 10% tariff will be imposed on sorghum, soybeans, pork, beef, aquatic products, fruits, vegetables, and dairy products. For the specific range of commodities, please see Appendix 2.

  3. For the imported goods listed in the appendix originating from the United States, corresponding tariffs will be levied on the basis of the current applicable tariff rates. The current bonded and tax reduction and exemption policies remain unchanged, and the additional tariffs will not be reduced or exempted.

  4. Goods that have been shipped from the place of departure before March 10, 2025 and imported between March 10, 2025 and April 12, 2025 shall not be subject to the additional tariffs prescribed in this announcement.

  Appendix: 1. List of goods subject to 15% additional tariff

  2. List of goods subject to 10% tariff
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