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tonymcn64.bsky.social

@tonymcn64.bsky.social
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Tim Bale @timbale.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
Sorry to be a (Conservative) party pooper, but
centrewrite.brightblue.org.uk
The Keminaissance is a myth. The Tories are still like a weird uncle.
Badenoch’s increasing tendency towards being ‘extremely online’ has led the party to paint itself into an ‘anti-woke’ corner that, to the majority of Brits who do not spend much time online…
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tonymcn64.bsky.social @tonymcn64.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
@iandunt.bsky.social Much - but not all - of what you said resonated with me (including the odd severe flashback) and I would welcome the opportunity to discuss further. Am a lecturer now at QMUL - hence my presence tonight. Regards Tony (2)
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tonymcn64.bsky.social @tonymcn64.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
@iandunt.bsky.social Hi Ian, Throughly enjoyed your gig at the Mile End Insitute tonight. I had a coffee with you beforehand with others but didn’t properly introduce myself. Tony McNulty - recovering politician, former MP and government minister. (1)
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Philip Cowley @philipjcowley.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
As niche academic arguments go, this one is very niche (but it is at least very short). A response article by me and young @timbl.bsky.social to a piece in Party Politics... journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10....
journals.sagepub.com
Different articles, similar arguments: A response to Rosenberg - Philip Cowley, Tim Bale, 2026
In this short response to Rosenberg (2026), we focus on three points. First, we note that there is now agreement that intra-party sortition is unlikely to deliv...
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Tim Bale @timbale.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
My review of “Sunak at 10: The Last Conservative Prime Minister” (in this month’s Literary Review - highly recommend if you love books).
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Marzia Maccaferri @marzmac.bsky.social · 14/09/2026
Politics is conceived as a market in which someone puts up the capital, someone distributes the benefits, and everyone must know which side of the transaction they are on. My two cents on donations and democracy (in Italian). appunti.substack.com/p/la-democra...
appunti.substack.com
La democrazia in vendita
In Gran Bretagna sono i miliardari a trasferire denaro a un partito; negli Stati Uniti è il presidente a promettere denaro agli elettori: la rappresentanza diventa transazione
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tonymcn64.bsky.social @tonymcn64.bsky.social · 12/09/2026
Excellent summary of vote on assisted dying by excellent QMUL colleague @DanielGover Why did MPs vote to reject the assisted dying bill – and what happens now? theconversation.com/why-did-mps-...
theconversation.com
Why did MPs vote to reject the assisted dying bill – and what happens now?
It’s the end of the road for this particular bill.
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Daniel Gover @danielgover.bsky.social · 11/09/2026
After MPs voted against assisted dying legislation today, a new piece from me on the outcome: 'Why did MPs vote to reject the assisted dying bill – and what happens now?' @uk.theconversation.com theconversation.com/why-did-mps-...
theconversation.com
Why did MPs vote to reject the assisted dying bill – and what happens now?
It’s the end of the road for this particular bill.
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Tim Bale @timbale.bsky.social · 10/09/2026
I'm sure there's a pattern here but I'm damned if I can make it out.
How misperceptions divide along party lines
Reform UK supporters think half of London’s population is Muslim. Their median guess of 50% is notably higher than the equivalent figure for Conservatives (40%), who guess next-highest, and more than three times the reality of 15%.
Different parties’ supporters misperceive London's ethnic make-up in different ways. Green and Labour supporters most overestimate the White British share, guessing 50% against a reality of 37%, while Reform supporters most overestimate the Black and Asian populations, estimating each at 30% against realities of 14% and 21%.
On the crimes that have genuinely risen, it is supporters on the left who are most often wrong. Violence and sexual offences have both increased in London, even if rates of both are still among the lowest in the country, yet fewer than half of Labour and Green supporters recognise that either has gone up – compared with majorities of Reform and Conservative supporters.
Reform supporters have the most inflated view of the risk of crime in London, guessing that 40% of Londoners were victims of crime in a single year – more than three times the reality (12.2%) – and are most likely to wrongly think total crime has risen since 2019, with nine in 10 (87%) holding this misperception.
Reform supporters also most overestimate how unsafe Londoners feel, guessing that 70% do not feel safe walking alone after dark – 10 points above Conservatives (60%), the next-highest, and almost double the reality of 37%.
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Daniel Gover @danielgover.bsky.social · 10/09/2026
In 2015, MPs voted to reject the assisted dying bill, a private member's bill. Tomorrow, exactly 11 years later to the day, MPs expect to vote on a similar bill. In May I wrote that supporters faced 4 key challenges. They've cleared the 1st. Tomorrow they face the 2nd challenge.
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tonymcn64.bsky.social @tonymcn64.bsky.social · 08/09/2026
x.com/tony_mcnulty...
x.com
Tony McNulty (@Tony_McNulty) on X
The ‘dawn of a new age of populism’ indeed! 150 year anniversary of the ‘Bulgarian Horrors’ with this excellent podcast from QMUL colleague, @redhistorian Rob Saunders Now & Then with Robert ...
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Tim Bale @timbale.bsky.social · 07/09/2026
My latest for @politicshome.bsky.social
politicshome.com
A bunch of narcissistic, psychopathic, Machiavellians? Britain's party members and their leaders
In 1964, Fact magazine sent a survey to over 12,000 American psychiatrists, asking them whether they believed that the ultra-conservative Republica...
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Stijn van Kessel @stijntvankessel.bsky.social · 04/09/2026
Some comments from me in this Radio France Internationale piece on the bonds between Jordan Bardella and Nigel Farage www.rfi.fr/en/france/20...
rfi.fr
How France and Britain’s far right are building a populist ‘entente cordiale’
Jordan Bardella will address Reform UK's party conference in Birmingham on Friday, putting the French far-right leader alongside Nigel Farage as both men seek to strengthen their political profiles.…
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Devolved Election Projections @devolvedelections.bsky.social · 04/09/2026
I for one am shocked to hear that JL Partners are involved in this. I just wish there had been warning signs and that someone had contacted the Telegraph about at the time. Or written about it in the Election Report. www.electionanalysis.uk/scottish-ele...
static.klipy.com
Futurama Fry: I Am Shocked, Not That Shocked
ALT: Futurama Fry: I Am Shocked, Not That Shocked
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Eoghan Kelly @eoghanly.bsky.social · 27/08/2026
More from our latest @mileendinstitute.bsky.social poll: Labour are stabilising under Burnham, but are still down from 2024 which will cost seats. This includes a sneak peak at an upcoming projection from @devolvedelections.bsky.social www.standard.co.uk/news/london/...
standard.co.uk
Reform, Tories and Greens to hammer Labour with 'loss of up to 18 London MPs'
Tories could gain eight seats, the Greens four and Reform three from Labour
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Colm Murphy @colmpm.bsky.social · 14/08/2026
I appeared on CNBC at the crack of dawn this morning to offer some snap analysis of the Clacton by election. I also reflected on Burnham's first month. You can watch some of my comments below. www.cnbc.com/video/2026/0...
cnbc.com
Clacton vote exposes Nigel Farage's polarizing nature: Professor
Nigel Farage is back in Parliament after regaining his Clacton seat, but could a standards probe mean his political comeback is short-lived? Colm Murphy, Senior Lecturer in British Politics at Queen M...
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Tim Bale @timbale.bsky.social · 11/08/2026
Good news/bad news for Andy Burnham in @mbarnfield.bsky.social's new @qmulsse.bsky.social polling, nicely summarized by the @newstatesman1913.bsky.social's @rmcunliffe.bsky.social. He's picked the right things to prioritize but there's a lot of pessimism about whether he can make a real difference.
newstatesman.com
Is Andy Burnham already doomed?
New polling suggests the Prime Minister understands what voters want – but has limited time to deliver it
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Matthew Barnfield @mbarnfield.bsky.social · 22/07/2026
Note that the view expressed several years ago by Miatta Fahnbulleh (that we should target net zero by 2030ish), which has received so much coverage this week following her appointment as Energy Secretary, was itself a pretty popular view at the time: www.theguardian.com/environment/...
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Matthew Barnfield @mbarnfield.bsky.social · 22/07/2026
Why do fewer people want the government to do more about climate change than five years ago? Maybe because the government is doing something about it. I wrote about how public opinion on net zero is (ironically?) like a thermostat: open.substack.com/pub/drmatthe...
open.substack.com
The Global Warming Thermostat
Why the public has stopped turning up the heat on climate policy action
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Eoghan Kelly @eoghanly.bsky.social · 13/07/2026
Our latest Mile End Institure/Savanta poll finds Labour on course to win the next Mayor of London election & remain the largest party in the Assembly. @savanta.bsky.social @standard.co.uk.web.brid.gy @mileendinstitute.bsky.social @devolvedelections.bsky.social www.standard.co.uk/news/london/...
standard.co.uk
Sadiq Khan 'on course' to win fourth term as London Mayor
Exclusive: Sir Sadiq would be re-elected to City Hall in 2028 after second preference votes are transferred, according to a new poll
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Philip Cowley @philipjcowley.bsky.social · 28/06/2026
Me, in the FT on the St Augustine transition in premiers. Also ft Harold Macmillan reading Pride and Prejudice and a reluctant Lord Melbourne. giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...
giftarticle.ft.com
Why is the Starmer to Burnham transition so long?
Like St Augustine, the assumed new Labour leader appears to want to be prime minister — but not yet
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Tim Bale @timbale.bsky.social · 24/06/2026
"All of this leaves Britain in a profoundly unstable, even dysfunctional state – unable to come to terms with the fact that it has ambitions and pretensions way beyond both its means and the capacity of its politicians to match them in the real world." Me, cheerful & chipper as ever this morning!
aa.com.tr
Migration, Brexit, and Starmer's exit: Inside Britain's political meltdown
Political instability leaves Britain in a profoundly dysfunctional state – unable to come to terms with the fact that it has ambitions and pretensions way beyond both its means and the capacity of its...
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tonymcn64.bsky.social @tonymcn64.bsky.social · 24/06/2026
This is well worth a read in context of Burnham supposedly abolishing all things whippery - it’s from QMUL colleague and friend @philipjcowley - a guest post on the ever excellent @Rebel Rebel, by @robfordmancs Rebel Rebel open.substack.com/pub/swingome...
open.substack.com
Rebel Rebel
In a guest post, Philip Cowley takes a look at backbench rebellions during Keir Starmer's time as Prime Minister
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Daniel Gover @danielgover.bsky.social · 23/06/2026
How could the assisted dying bill be amended even if MPs seek to use the Parliament Acts (which requires them to pass an identical bill)? From my comments on Radio 4’s Today in Parliament. www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/...
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Colm Murphy @colmpm.bsky.social · 22/06/2026
I hope the Canadians didn't mind me ruining their cornflakes (or equivalent!) at 6.20am their time this morning. www.cbc.ca/player/play/...
cbc.ca
CBC's David Common speaks with Colm Murphy on Britain's current political instability
Get the latest on CBCNews.ca, the CBC News App, and CBC News Network for breaking news and analysis.
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Tim Bale @timbale.bsky.social · 22/06/2026
Watch out for all of my fab @qmulsse.bsky.social colleagues on the media today trying to make sense of what's going on and hopefully place it in some kind of context. Here, as they used to say on Blue Peter, is one I made earlier.
video.snapstream.net
CNN Newsroom Live - Starmer latest
Powered by SnapStream Cloud Sharing
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Daniel Gover @danielgover.bsky.social · 20/06/2026
I was on Radio 4’s Today in Parliament yesterday, discussing the assisted dying bill. We talked about how the Parliament Acts might be used to pass the bill, and how changes can still be made to it. Around 7:35 in: www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/...
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tonymcn64.bsky.social @tonymcn64.bsky.social · 16/06/2026
This is very good and a worthy summary of a life well-lived in the service of party and country. www.theguardian.com/politics/202...
theguardian.com
Lord Hattersley obituary
Politician, journalist and writer who was deputy leader of the Labour party for a decade
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Tim Bale @timbale.bsky.social · 15/06/2026
"Nigel Farage- the unsinkable!" With cameos (no, not that sort) by yours truly dubbed into French (and sounding all the better for it). German to follow below.
arte.tv
Nigel Farage, l’insubmersible - Regarder le documentaire complet | ARTE
En 2016, c'était mister Brexit. Aujourd'hui, son credo est la lutte contre l'immigration. Nigel Farage et son nouveau parti Reform UK ont fait de très bons scores aux dernières élections locales et ré...
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tonymcn64.bsky.social @tonymcn64.bsky.social · 15/06/2026
Hopefully the proposer will turn down the overly partisan shouty shouty approach of the last session ……. But I don’t live in hope.
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Daniel Gover @danielgover.bsky.social · 04/06/2026
Grateful for the chance to discuss private members' bills (usage, reform, etc) today at the @instituteforgovernment.org.uk - alongside @kimleadbeatermp.bsky.social, @paulbrand.bsky.social, @drhannahwhite.bsky.social & Luke Norbury. Recording here: www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/event/assist...
instituteforgovernment.org.uk
Are private members' bills a good way for MPs to decide on difficult policy issues? | Institute for Government
An expert panel drew on lessons from the recent assisted dying bill and other PMBs to consider how backbench MPs should approach complex issues.
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tonymcn64.bsky.social @tonymcn64.bsky.social · 04/06/2026
This is a much more honest approach than that of the PR reform zealots who argue essentially that PR is good because PR is good and all who disagree are dinosaurs
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Tim Bale @timbale.bsky.social · 03/06/2026
So reformers should "get real: step up efforts to set up a truly independent commission, agree to back the system it recommends, insert a commitment into as many party manifestos as possible & begin working out how best to win support in what is bound to be a hard-fought public vote."
ft.com
Electoral reform for the UK? Don’t bet on it
Fractured party politics and enthusiasm from Labour’s hopefuls are not a sign of imminent proportional voting
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Tim Bale @timbale.bsky.social · 03/06/2026
"Bale said that there can be a tendency for political parties to be drawn to talking policies promoted by parties further to the fringes. Farage must resist the temptation to move closer to Restore Britain & Advance UK positions, as doing so would risk damaging his party's overall electoral appeal."
politicshome.com
Are New Right-Wing Parties A Problem For Nigel Farage?
Last month, former Reform UK MP Rupert Lowe launched a new party: Restore Britain. Some former Reform councillors have signed up. Another former co...
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Tim Bale @timbale.bsky.social · 02/06/2026
Nice, every once in a while, to have a civilised disagreement!
onlinelibrary.wiley.com
Different Process, Different Outcomes: A Response to Cowley, Webb and Bale
This paper responds to Cowley, Webb and Bale's critique of our paper on sortition, parties and political careers. Cowley et al. argue that within-party sortition will not increase parliamentary descr....
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Philip Cowley @philipjcowley.bsky.social · 02/06/2026
The letter from Campbell-Bannerman, which I stumbled upon purely by chance, has no relevance to contemporary politics at all:
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Philip Cowley @philipjcowley.bsky.social · 02/06/2026
Latest piece for @thehousemag.bsky.social, in which I reveal an unknown letter from Sir Henry Campbell-Bannerman, find another letter from Churchill, discover when Sir John Rodgers went to the dentist, and praise the kindness of two former Streatham MPs: www.politicshome.com/opinion/arti...
politicshome.com
The Professor Will See You Now: Luck
Lessons in political science. This week: luck
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tonymcn64.bsky.social @tonymcn64.bsky.social · 01/06/2026
A good read x.com/richardmarcj...
x.com
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Matthew Barnfield @mbarnfield.bsky.social · 29/05/2026
In case this week's record-breaking heatwave and/or criticism of net zero from Tony Blair have you thinking about the status of climate change in British politics, I did some polling: open.substack.com/pub/drmatthe... 1/4
open.substack.com
Reform UK: the political home of climate scepticism in Britain
As Tony Blair challenges net zero amid a record-breaking May heatwave, new data on what British voters think about environmental policy
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Daniel Gover @danielgover.bsky.social · 26/05/2026
🚨Could the Parliament Acts be used to pass assisted dying? As I say in this clip: 🔵 Never previously used on a PMB 🔵 But explicitly intended to apply to PMBs, not just govt bills 🔵 In practice, not straightforward to do, but possible
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tonymcn64.bsky.social @tonymcn64.bsky.social · 26/05/2026
This is 100% correct and if anyone thinks we are too big for an exile in the lower leagues like Coventry, Sunderland and now maybe Leicester, then they’re bonkers. Dangerous days lie ahead and the urgent thing we needed is new owners. ⚒⚒⚒👏👏👏⚒⚒⚒ www.theguardian.com/football/202...
theguardian.com
Blame for West Ham’s shambolic slide to relegation sits at the feet of David Sullivan | Jacob Steinberg
The club’s largest shareholder has ignored warning signs since 2022 and need only look at the fate of Leicester to see what may be in store
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Tim Bale @timbale.bsky.social · 22/05/2026
Me on the UK's journey from beacon to basket-case in ten short years.
aa.com.tr
OPINION - Britain's "ungovernable" decade
The seemingly chronic inability of both the Conservatives and Labour to deliver economic growth, decent public services, and strong borders has seen voter dissatisfaction grow and party loyalty shrink...
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Tim Bale @timbale.bsky.social · 18/05/2026
Remain/Labour fans don't get your hopes up: Reform UK, it turns out, need not fear the reaper. According to the ever-excellent @chanret.bsky.social, "amongst the still living in Makerfield, the Leave:Remain split moves from 66:34 to 64:36." (Source: www.chrishanretty.co.uk/posts/makerf...)
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Daniel Gover @danielgover.bsky.social · 18/05/2026
On Thursday, MPs will hold this year's private members' bills ballot. Supporters of the assisted dying bill will hope to bring the bill back - allowing them to override the Lords using the Parliament Acts. But they face 4 challenges. My article ⬇️ theconversation.com/can-the-assi...
theconversation.com
Can the assisted dying bill be brought back? It’s possible – but supporters face four challenges
There are said to be around 200 MPs who are willing to reintroduce it as a private member’s bill.
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Tim Bale @timbale.bsky.social · 18/05/2026
"The focus on MRPs throughout the 2026 Holyrood campaign led to fewer polls, cost more money, and produced erratic claims due to some poor, or at least not transparent, methodological practices. The campaign highlights that whilst MRPs can add value, they remain a...fallible source of information."
electionanalysis.uk
MRPs: A false dawn - UK Election Analysis
Dr Eoghan Kelly Postdoctoral Researcher leading the Mile End Institute’s, Queen Mary University of London’s Polling London Project. He has lectured on quantitative methods at Queen’s University, Belfa...
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tonymcn64.bsky.social @tonymcn64.bsky.social · 15/05/2026
Interesting work from friends and colleagues at QMUL
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Tim Bale @timbale.bsky.social · 14/05/2026
"But," as I noted, "one thing we know about members [from our research] is that party members also want to win elections. So if Streeting can show them he’s the guy to do that, he still has a chance, even if he’s not their ideological ideal.”
theguardian.com
Wes Streeting faces narrow road to Labour members’ favour
Health secretary’s soft-right credentials put him at a disadvantage even with reduced membership under Starmer
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tonymcn64.bsky.social @tonymcn64.bsky.social · 14/05/2026
What are Labour’s rules for a leadership election if Keir Starmer is challenged? labourlist.org/2026/05/labo... – via LabourList
labourlist.org
What are Labour's rules for a leadership election if Keir Starmer is challenged? - LabourList
If a challenge were to be made against Keir Starmer, what would the rules for a leadership election be and what would trigger one?
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Mile End Institute @mileendinstitute.bsky.social · 14/05/2026
Our very own Tom Chidwick is mentioned in today’s @thetimes.com Diary! While Heath denied the ‘monstrous allegations made about a lack of courtesy shown in my own home’, his friends conceded that he hadn’t accompanied Thatcher to the door so they wouldn’t be photographed together …
The big meeting between Sir Keir Starmer and Wes Streeting turned into more of a brush-past when the health secretary left after 16 minutes. It reminded the historian Tom Chidwick of a similar occasion when the vanquished Conservative leader Ted Heath was visited at his home by his successor, Margaret Thatcher. Thatcher emerged after 15 minutes but the meeting had lasted only five. Heath refused to impart any wisdom or join the shadow cabinet and Thatcher spent ten minutes chatting with the housekeeper to make it look less like a disaster. Heath’s campaign aide Tim Kitson later revealed that Heath had actually piled books on the chairs in his study so as to prevent his visitor from sitting down.
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