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Tom Hunter

@tommccraehunter.bsky.social
139 followers 189 following 31 posts

Political Science, EU integration, and International Relations. SNF Postdoc Mobility Fellow at Sciences Po. Previously at the IPZ and LSE.

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Tom Hunter @tommccraehunter.bsky.social · 23/06/2026
J'y analyse la manière dont le Brexit a restructuré la vie politique britannique de trois façons interconnectées : en créant de nouvelles tribus politiques, en déplaçant le conflit politique sur une dimension culturelle, et en inaugurant une nouvelle ère de multipartisme au Royaume-Uni.
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Tom Hunter @tommccraehunter.bsky.social · 23/06/2026
L'un de mes objectifs en arrivant à Sciences Po était de réécrire en français, une langue que je n'avais plus pratiquée à l'écrit depuis longtemps. En voici le premier résultat :) conference.sciencespo.fr/content/2026...
conference.sciencespo.fr
Royaume-Uni : les héritages du Brexit continuent à faire tomber les gouvernements
This article is also available in English.  Avec la démission de Keir Starmer et l’avènement d’un septième Premier ministre depuis le référendum de 2016, le Brexit s’impose de nouveau au cœur de l’act...
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Tom Hunter @tommccraehunter.bsky.social · 15/06/2026
Now off to Belfast for the @epssnet.bsky.social conference where I’m presenting work on gender in the Council of the EU and political parties and IOs. Drop me a message if you fancy grabbing a coffee ☕
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Tom Hunter @tommccraehunter.bsky.social · 15/06/2026
Academic expertise + engaged policymakers + evening poetry = a true Dublin experience. Thanks to a great job done by the IIEA (love that yellow door!)
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Tom Hunter @tommccraehunter.bsky.social · 15/06/2026
I was delighted to represent @sciencespo-cee.bsky.social at my very first @tepsa.bsky.social , as the network drew up recommendations for the upcoming Irish Presidency.
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Tom Hunter @tommccraehunter.bsky.social · 28/04/2026
On my way back from my first ever @comptext.bsky.social conference. Can't believe I left it so long. The field is moving so fast and I'm already looking forward to next year. Thanks so much to the organizers of #COMPTEXT2026 (that Joseph Chamberlain Clock Tower is a beaut!)
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Tom Hunter @tommccraehunter.bsky.social · 05/01/2026
Happy to announce that I'll be joining @sciencespo-cee.bsky.social in 2026 as an @snsf.ch postdoc mobility fellow for 2 years. Can't wait to get started!
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Tom Hunter @tommccraehunter.bsky.social · 08/10/2025
Finally, a particular thanks to my PhD supervisors @sarahagemann.bsky.social and @sarahobolt.bsky.social who saw this through from the very beginning! I’m also grateful to @chrauh.bsky.social and @stefwalter.bsky.social (and many others!) for great comments and help along the way.
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Tom Hunter @tommccraehunter.bsky.social · 08/10/2025
It also builds on work on responsiveness in the EU from @cjschneider.bsky.social and @chriswratil.bsky.social . Check out this book! www.cambridge.org/core/books/r...
cambridge.org
The Responsive Union
Cambridge Core - European Government, Politics and Policy - The Responsive Union
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Tom Hunter @tommccraehunter.bsky.social · 08/10/2025
This builds on great work on blame shifting in the EU by the team at LMU: Lisa Kriegmair, Berthold Rittberger, Bernahrd Zangl, @heinkelmann-wild.bsky.social. Check out this book! global.oup.com/academic/pro...
global.oup.com
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Tom Hunter @tommccraehunter.bsky.social · 08/10/2025
On the other, the fact that the EU is only credited for issues citizens care little about, while governments claim credit for the issues that are electorally salient is more problematic… 👎
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Tom Hunter @tommccraehunter.bsky.social · 08/10/2025
What does this mean for #accountability in Europe? On the one hand, the fact that the EU is blamed less than often assumed (and does receive credit!) is rather encouraging. 👍
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Tom Hunter @tommccraehunter.bsky.social · 08/10/2025
And here are predicted probabilities at different levels of issue salience: as salience increases, this increases the probability of leaders claiming credit, and decreases the prob of sharing credit with the EU.
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Tom Hunter @tommccraehunter.bsky.social · 08/10/2025
However, there are huge differences across issues: for the Environment (low salience during my investigation period) most leaders are happy to credit the EU, but for the Economic Situation (high salience), most leaders claim credit
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Tom Hunter @tommccraehunter.bsky.social · 08/10/2025
Importantly, Europe DOES receive credit from national leaders. Many leaders are to the right of the dotted line in this figure, meaning they actually share credit with the EU more than they claim it for themselves.
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Tom Hunter @tommccraehunter.bsky.social · 08/10/2025
What do we observe descriptively? i) Blame shifting by governments is rare; ii) the response to increased Euroscepticism + EU politicization in crisis years seems to be an increase in credit claiming rather than blame.
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Tom Hunter @tommccraehunter.bsky.social · 08/10/2025
My original data captures press conference of heads of gov after #EUCO summits (2005-2018). Each paragraph is handcoded for credit claiming, credit sharing, or blame. As each leader is in essence presenting the same stimulus (EUCO conclusions), this provides a neat ‘within-case’ comparison.
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Tom Hunter @tommccraehunter.bsky.social · 08/10/2025
How do governments solve this dilemma? Through CREDIT CLAIMING. I also argue that issue salience is key: for issues that matter to electorates, govs wil claim credit; for issues of low salience, govs are happy to share credit with the EU.
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Tom Hunter @tommccraehunter.bsky.social · 08/10/2025
Governments facing high levels of Euroscepticism therefore face a RHETORICAL DILEMMA: on the one hand, the need to signal responsiveness to a more skeptical electorate; on the other, a reluctance to explicitly blame the EU.
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Tom Hunter @tommccraehunter.bsky.social · 08/10/2025
I argue that far from being costless, scapegoating the EU can be a risky strategy for governments: it risks antagonising voters that are supportive of the EU, damages reputation with other member states, and can be a sign of negotiation failure on the international stage.
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Tom Hunter @tommccraehunter.bsky.social · 08/10/2025
🚨 New(ish) Publication Alert! Delighted to see my article Credit Claiming in the EU @thejop.bsky.social I explore a classic question for accountability in Europe: when and why do govs claim credit for the work of the EU and shift blame onto Brussels to avoid responsibility? doi.org/10.1086/732970
doi.org
Credit Claiming in the European Union | The Journal of Politics: Vol 87, No 3
Incumbents in multilevel systems are assumed to exploit uncertainty of responsibility by claiming credit and shifting blame, yet little is known about when and how they engage in these rhetorical stra...
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Tom Hunter @tommccraehunter.bsky.social · 28/08/2025
Excited to be on a great panel on Politicization and Party Strategies in the EU @ecpr.bsky.social. Featuring @heinkelmann-wild.bsky.social , @kovarek.bsky.social , @duarteamaro.bsky.social, @saorhan.bsky.social among others. Come on down to the Polytechnic School (B 5.39)at 13:30 tomorrow (29 Aug)!
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Tom Hunter @tommccraehunter.bsky.social · 07/07/2025
(5/5) This supports findings from this other great @jeppjournal.bsky.social article by Marco Martini and @stefwalter.bsky.social on how Brexit shapes nationalist rhetoric in media coverage outside the UK. doi.org/10.1080/1350...
doi.org
Learning from precedent: how the British Brexit experience shapes nationalist rhetoric outside the UK
The liberal international order has recently come under increasing nationalist pressure, evidenced by a rise in nationalist demands to withdraw from international institutions. A growing literature...
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Tom Hunter @tommccraehunter.bsky.social · 07/07/2025
(4/5) Mainstream pro-European parties also got a bolder in their #Brexit statements after the vote - increasing the pro-Europeanism in their rhetoric and using it as an opportunity to attack #populists at home and abroad.
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Tom Hunter @tommccraehunter.bsky.social · 07/07/2025
(3/5)The descriptive figures show it all: whilst talk of following in the UK’s footsteps was popular pre-referendum vote (June 2016), this almost disappears completely post-vote. I also find that EUsceptics aim to avoid #Brexit in their parliamentary comms.
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Tom Hunter @tommccraehunter.bsky.social · 07/07/2025
(2/5) I find that it is very much the latter, as the UK’s negative experience post-referendum revealed new information about the desirability of #EU membership. Data comes from 2,223 Brexit statements between 2013 and 2018 in five legislatures (AT, DE, DK, NL, SE )
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Tom Hunter @tommccraehunter.bsky.social · 07/07/2025
(1/5) My article Disintegration and Party Competition is out in the latest issue of @jeppjournal.bsky.social ! I ask how parties in other member states reacted to #Brexit. Do #Eurosceptic challengers frame it as an example to follow? Or do they instead row back on ‘hard’ demands to #leave the EU?
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Tom Hunter @tommccraehunter.bsky.social · 25/06/2025
(3/3) I also look forward to acting as a discussant on the panel 'International Law and compliance' (Friday 27 June, 11:20 - 13:00, Room 1A.11) chaired by Niheer Dasandi. Vamos!
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Tom Hunter @tommccraehunter.bsky.social · 25/06/2025
(2/3)On Friday 27 June (13:10 - 14:50, Room 1A.11) I present joint work with @ta-huikuri.bsky.social on Women in International negotiations as part of the panel 'Gender Representation: rhetoric and parliamentary speeches' chaired by @clint0475.bsky.social
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Tom Hunter @tommccraehunter.bsky.social · 25/06/2025
(1/3) I am excited to be on 2 great panels at #EPSA in Madrid! On Thursday 26 June (09:30 - 11:10, Room 0A.06) I present joint work with @stefwalter.bsky.social on Parties and IOs on the panel ‘Text analysis in the Study of IR’ chaired by @andduer.bsky.social
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Reposted by Tom Hunter
ERC project DISINTEGRATION @disintegrationerc.bsky.social · 08/05/2025
DISINTEGRATION publication #7 @giorgiomalet.bsky.social shows that French rejection of the EU constitution in the 2005 referendum increased public opposition to the Constitution abroad, an example of cross-national social influence. journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/...
journals.sagepub.com
Sage Journals: Discover world-class research
Subscription and open access journals from Sage, the world's leading independent academic publisher.
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Tom Hunter @tommccraehunter.bsky.social · 05/05/2025
Important paper from @stefwalter.bsky.social and the @disintegrationerc.bsky.social project: the backlash against globalisation is less about large shifts in public opinion, more about political entrepreneurs mobilising the issue.
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Reposted by Tom Hunter
ERC project DISINTEGRATION @disintegrationerc.bsky.social · 05/02/2025
(1/8) Just published in @the-peio.bsky.social by @tommccraehunter.bsky.social and @stefwalter.bsky.social : We introduces IOParlspeech, a dataset of over 600,000 statements on 75 IOs in parliamentary debates (six countries: AT, CAN, DE, UK, USA, NZL) between 1990 and 2018. doi.org/10.1007/s115...
doi.org
International organizations in national parliamentary debates - The Review of International Organizations
This data article introduces IOParlspeech, an original dataset of over 600,000 statements on international organizations (IOs) in parliamentary debates in six countries between 1990 and 2018. We expla...
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