iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

Tim Kaiser @tkaiser.science · 29/09/2026

Yesterday I signed my contract at Julian Rubel's @julianrubel.bsky.social lab. What a great team to work with!

Tim Kaiser @tkaiser.science · 16/09/2026

If you need to digitally sign PDFs from time to time and don't want to install a slow, bloated 2 GB Adobe application, Okular is a nice alternative (<500 MB). It can also fill and edit PDFs - Windows, Mac and Linux. okular.kde.org/de/download/

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Tim Kaiser @tkaiser.science · 09/09/2026

One does not simply walk into Kassel!

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Rosemary Mosco @rosemarymosco.com · 06/09/2026

I think this phenomenon can only be understood as a dramatic, horrific worsening of a preexisting situation.

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Tim Kaiser @tkaiser.science · 22/08/2026

The 3yo just spooned a piece of runny Epoisses cheese. Might as well apply for French citizenship now. (Her, not me)

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Georg Henning @georghenning.bsky.social · 19/08/2026

The kids these days are usually first of all "the kids " (age effects), maybe also a bit "these days" (period effects) but rarely ever "the kids these days" (cohort effects)

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Matthew B. Jané @matthewbjane.bsky.social · 21/07/2026

Agreed. People seem to not like the fact that the meta-analytic estimand is the *distribution* of effects. The mean effect is often meaningless and therefore prediction intervals should be seen as the primary statistical result of a meta-analysis.

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Tim Kaiser @tkaiser.science · 17/07/2026

Bluesky mag ja tot sein, aber für die dümmsten takes zu Danger Dan ist es nach wie vor einfach eine unersetzliche Quelle

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Frau Freudig @fraufreudig.bsky.social · 07/07/2026

Es macht mich einfach nur noch fassungslos. Die Psychotherapie soll offenbar eine Selbstzahlerleistung werden- niemand von den PsychotherapeutInnen wird ohne Wissen, was man verdient, eine Praxis aufrechterhalten können mit KassenpatientInnen. Und das ist es: genau das ist politischer Wille.

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Tim Kaiser @tkaiser.science · 27/06/2026

Ein paar hitzebedingte Posts: - Gestern ist der Unterricht wegen Hitze ausgefallen - Neben der Schule ist eine der größten Hitzeinseln Berlins, die Bismarckstraße. Hier wurden schon Temperaturen um die 60 Grad gemessen, dafür erzeugen die Autos zusätzlich Lärm, Abgase und Unfälle.

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Tim Kaiser @tkaiser.science · 27/06/2026

Beim Thema Klimaanlagen sieht man auf Bluesky gerade wie mit aller Gewalt ein neues Kulturkampfthema hergestellt wird obwohl eigentlich keiner mehr wirklich Bock drauf hat.

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Tim Kaiser @tkaiser.science · 06/01/2026

My reading of Hayes (2004) is that psychotherapy jumped the shark during the second wave

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Tim Kaiser @tkaiser.science · 15/06/2026

It's a survey on optimism, it's expected to skew towards early adopters. A startup founder in Bangalore is surely more enthusiastic than a data-labelling worker in Kenya, but both are the "Global South", just like many others whose labor, land, water and minerals are exploited.

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Eiko Fried @eikofried.bsky.social · 15/06/2026

In addition to a hiring PhD in ~October & hopefully some PhDs and postdocs ~February, if anyone would like to work with me as part of eg a Marie-Curie or something similar, please do get in touch. Topics include depression, classification, measurement, systems, time-series, & theory building.

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Tim Kaiser @tkaiser.science · 13/06/2026

Meine Tochter hat sich einen Dino gekauft der so guckt wie ich, wenn das Wort „Verfahrensvielfalt“ fällt

Ein roter, sehr wütend drein schauender Dino

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Tim Kaiser @tkaiser.science · 09/06/2026

[DPK, Tag 2] Etwas spät dran, aber gerade noch rechtzeitig zum Vortrag meines Doktoranden Markus Tewes @markus-tewes.bsky.social, die sein Projekt - die sitzungsweise Vorhersage von Allianzbrüchen - vorstellt. #DPK2026

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Tim Kaiser @tkaiser.science · 09/06/2026

[DPK, Tag 1] Ich versuche mal, die Bluesky-Fahne hochzuhalten mit ein paar Berichten vom #DPK2026. Mein erster Tag - gestern - fing bereits sehr intensiv an, mit einem Jumi-Workshop für Kausalinferenz in der klinsichen Psychologie.

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Tim Kaiser @tkaiser.science · 07/06/2026

Wie viele Suizide verbindet ambulante Psychotherapie pro Jahr in Deutschland? Meine Schätzung basierend auf der besten verfügbaren Evidenz: tkaiser.science/3mnossp7dzc2r

tkaiser.science

Wie viele Suizide ambulante Psychotherapie verhindert - Tim Kaiser's blog

Auf der Basis der besten verfügbaren Evidenz.

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Ian Hussey @ianhussey.mmmdata.io · 03/06/2026

Did someone say “explanatory fiction”?

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Dr. Lucky Tran @luckytran.com · 02/06/2026

Incredible! Scientists receive a rare standing ovation after announcing that a new treatment can double the survival time for pancreatic cancer, the deadliest cancer which was once considered “undruggable.” When we fund and support science, we can achieve anything! (Video: Dr. Wish Dhillon)

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Valeriy M., PhD, MBA, CQF @predict-addict.bsky.social · 02/06/2026

Another paper showing why conformal prediction deserves serious attention in self-driving. The paper is: “Uncertainty-Aware Vision-based Risk Object Identification via Conformal Risk Tube Prediction.” The core idea is exactly the right one. In driving, risk is not a neat binary label.

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Tim Kaiser @tkaiser.science · 29/05/2026

"Our results showed that a three-cluster solution best fit the data"

A creepy taxidermied animal figure made by sewing three wolves together to form a single creature.

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Dr Jay Watts @shrinkatlarge.bsky.social · 23/05/2026

Still remember the crushing moment as a young researcher when I realised that proving something through evidence had damn near no impact on social policy unless it was politically useful to believe it.

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Dr. Berenthal @algesiologe.bsky.social · 20/05/2026

Ich möchte - wenn ich darf - für #PTBS Patientys eine besondere Empfehlung für die #SchönKlinikBadBramstedt aussprechen. Da werden sie geholfen! Vielen Dank!🫶

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Tim Kaiser @tkaiser.science · 18/05/2026

If, like me, you're wondering where all this talk about "regulating the nervous system" is coming from, AI chatbots might have had something to do with it. Correlation of Google Trends results is .88 (data for Germany)…

Google Trends results for the search terms "chatgpt" and "regulate the nervous system" (German), normalized within each term. Vertical black line: ChatGPT became available here.

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Tim Kaiser @tkaiser.science · 17/05/2026

Einmal Bahn gefahren...

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Tim Kaiser @tkaiser.science · 17/05/2026

K1 und ich sind uns einig: Feuerschwanz hätten mehr Punkte geholt. #ESC #Eurovision

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Christian Webb, PhD @christianwebb.bsky.social · 16/05/2026

Some evidence of decreasing depression rates among adolescents from the latest National Survey on Drug Use and Health. 60% of teens with depression reported receiving mental health treatment (31% taking meds) www.samhsa.gov/data/sites/d...

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Tim Kaiser @tkaiser.science · 17/05/2026

Speaking of sobering reads: in a student sample, participants couldn't distinguish their own network model from a randomly selected one. Annotated time series were rated as more useful. osf.io/preprints/ps...

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David Darmofal @daviddarmofal.bsky.social · 16/05/2026

I know the causal inference folks don't like vector autoregression, but this seems extreme.

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Tim Kaiser @tkaiser.science · 15/05/2026

Considering just how ambitious the promises surrounding Network Control Theory were regarding the personalization of psychotherapy, this makes for a refreshingly sobering read.

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Robert Misik @misik.bsky.social · 14/05/2026

Müssen wir mehr Babys bekommen? Sobald die Geburtenentwicklung politisch diskutiert wird, bekommt das Thema einen strengen Beigeschmack. Meine Kolumne 👇 zackzack.at/2026/05/14/m...

zackzack.at

Macht Babys, aber dalli! - zackzack.at

Haltet den jungen Leuten keine Moralpredigten. Gebt ihnen Sicherheit. Dann bekommen sie auch mehr Kinder.

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Tim Kaiser @tkaiser.science · 12/05/2026

no link.springer.com/article/10.1...

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Simon Blackwell @blackwellse.bsky.social · 12/05/2026

You can also share data here under a Level 1 (Scientific Use) license agreement, and they offer a "links for reviewers" option to allow sharing the data (blind) during the review process but before it's made publicly available!

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Tim Kaiser @tkaiser.science · 12/05/2026

Fellow Europeans, did you know about this alternative to COS/OSF? They have upload templates for the usual academic formats, but also data and even Bachelor's /Master's theses. www.psycharchives.org/en

psycharchives.org

Home | PsychArchives

PsychArchives is a disciplinary repository for psychological science and neighboring disciplines.

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Tim Kaiser @tkaiser.science · 10/05/2026

"Proposed mechanisms on how psychedelics might influence repressed memory included psychoanalytical reductions of defensive memory blockades and neurobiological alterations of executive control. However, empirical support for these mechanisms was limited."

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Tim Kaiser @tkaiser.science · 09/05/2026

Mir war das gar nicht so klar, aber der #DPK2026 hat tatsächlich Gesundheitsministerin Warken als Schirmherrin...

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Simon Blackwell @blackwellse.bsky.social · 08/05/2026

Interested in attending the English-language track of Germany's HUGE annual psychotherapy conference - from home? Check out the amazing set of international keynotes and sign up for hybrid attendance! deutscher-psychotherapie-kongress.de/internationa... #DPK2026 @dpk-kongress.bsky.social

Picture of English-language program, for details see:
https://deutscher-psychotherapie-kongress.de/wp-content/uploads/2026/05/DPK2026_EnglishTrackProgram.pdf

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Tim Kaiser @tkaiser.science · 30/04/2026

Most psychological research tells you if a treatment (or any other cause) works on average. But averages hide a lot. Some people benefit, some see no effect and some may actually be harmed. Our new primer in Psychological Methods tackles this head-on. 🧵

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Tim Kaiser @tkaiser.science · 30/04/2026

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Tim Kaiser @tkaiser.science · 30/04/2026

Schön - und auch ziemlich sozialdemokratisch - wäre es, wenn die Mitarbeiter:innen der Berliner Unis jetzt auch tarifgemäß bezahlt werden - Stichwort Hauptstadtzulage.

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Dan Quintana @dsquintana.bsky.social · 29/04/2026

Selecting an effect size for power analysis is hard. Many researchers fall back on Cohen's thresholds, but they have no empirical basis and vary wildly by field. Our new paper offers a better option: field-specific effect size distributions built from meta-analytic data doi.org/10.3758/s134...

Abstract
Effect sizes are useful for understanding the magnitude of study results and for planning new studies via power analysis.
However, despite their wide usage, effect sizes are often misinterpreted. This is mostly due to an over-reliance on general
effect size benchmarks that were not intended for broad application across diverse research fields. Inaccurate effect size
interpretations can lead to incorrect conclusions about the magnitude of study results and incorrect sample size estimates,
thereby increasing the likelihood of false-positive results. This article introduces the ESDist R package, which is designed
to calculate empirically derived effect-size benchmarks or a range of reliably detectable empirical effect sizes for a specific
research question or field of interest by computing effect size distributions (ESDs). This package can be used on data that
can be easily extracted from pre-existing meta-analyses to help researchers more accurately plan new studies or to better
understand how an individual study might relate to other studies in their field. ESDist includes a set of features that make it
easy to use in a priori power analysis. Moreover, the package includes a feature for estimating effect size benchmarks that
account for publication bias and are weighted by effect sizes' variances, which addresses existing limitations of using ESDs
for study planning or interpretation.

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