iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

Tim Kaiser @tkaiser.science · 29/09/2026

Yesterday I signed my contract at Julian Rubel's @julianrubel.bsky.social lab. What a great team to work with!

8320

Tim Kaiser @tkaiser.science · 27/06/2026

Das ist das Wärmebild der TU.

Wärmebildufnahme des Rondells am Ernst-Reuter-Platz im Sommer 2025, das stellenweise Temperaturen über 60 Grad zeigt.
Quelle: Technische Universität Berlin / BACW

120

Tim Kaiser @tkaiser.science · 13/06/2026

Meine Tochter hat sich einen Dino gekauft der so guckt wie ich, wenn das Wort „Verfahrensvielfalt“ fällt

Ein roter, sehr wütend drein schauender Dino

3161

Tim Kaiser @tkaiser.science · 09/06/2026

[DPK, Tag 2] Etwas spät dran, aber gerade noch rechtzeitig zum Vortrag meines Doktoranden Markus Tewes @markus-tewes.bsky.social, die sein Projekt - die sitzungsweise Vorhersage von Allianzbrüchen - vorstellt. #DPK2026

280

Tim Kaiser @tkaiser.science · 29/05/2026

"Our results showed that a three-cluster solution best fit the data"

A creepy taxidermied animal figure made by sewing three wolves together to form a single creature.

0103

Tim Kaiser @tkaiser.science · 27/05/2026

Mine already does something like this 🤣

230

Tim Kaiser @tkaiser.science · 18/05/2026

…and increases in searches for ChatGPT predict searches for "regulate nervous system" ahead in time, but not vice versa (Graphical VAR model).

Results from a graphical vector autoregression model showing that searches for ChatGPT predict increased searches for nervous system regulation

impulse response function plot for the effect of increased searches for chatgpt on searches for nervous system regulation.

100

Tim Kaiser @tkaiser.science · 18/05/2026

If, like me, you're wondering where all this talk about "regulating the nervous system" is coming from, AI chatbots might have had something to do with it. Correlation of Google Trends results is .88 (data for Germany)…

Google Trends results for the search terms "chatgpt" and "regulate the nervous system" (German), normalized within each term. Vertical black line: ChatGPT became available here.

280

Tim Kaiser @tkaiser.science · 17/05/2026

Einmal Bahn gefahren...

000

Tim Kaiser @tkaiser.science · 15/05/2026

Considering just how ambitious the promises surrounding Network Control Theory were regarding the personalization of psychotherapy, this makes for a refreshingly sobering read.

260

Tim Kaiser @tkaiser.science · 12/05/2026

no link.springer.com/article/10.1...

151

Tim Kaiser @tkaiser.science · 09/05/2026

Hier der Kommentar vom DPTV dazu. Bisschen sperrig das auf Instagram zu verfolgen aber auf anderen Plattformen finde ich dazu nichts...

130

Tim Kaiser @tkaiser.science · 09/05/2026

Mir war das gar nicht so klar, aber der #DPK2026 hat tatsächlich Gesundheitsministerin Warken als Schirmherrin...

690

Tim Kaiser @tkaiser.science · 30/04/2026

Where did she get that from?

100

Tim Kaiser @tkaiser.science · 28/04/2026

NLP erinnert mich immer an den hier

320

Tim Kaiser @tkaiser.science · 26/04/2026

So nobel dein Zweck auch sein mag: wenn du solche Bilder generierst um dafür zu werben halte ich dich sofort für einen Spambot aus St. Petersburg. #bestofinstagram

140

Tim Kaiser @tkaiser.science · 14/04/2026

Finally someone dared to say it: effective psychodynamic therapy for anxiety disorders is plausibly based on exposure. osf.io/preprints/ps...

3257

Tim Kaiser @tkaiser.science · 26/03/2026

André specializes in treating really large groups, he has similar programs for fear of spiders, dental treatment, injections/injuries, contamination and heights (see picture)…

160

Tim Kaiser @tkaiser.science · 03/02/2026

Looks like we have similar tastes when it comes to titles

120

Tim Kaiser @tkaiser.science · 03/02/2026

Consider variables z1,...,zN. Suppose that for any collection of N values, the N! different orderings are equally likely. Then we say that z1,...,zN are exchangeable. For the described algorithm to work the data need to be exchangeable.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conformal_prediction#Inductive_conformal_prediction_(ICP)_2

110

Tim Kaiser @tkaiser.science · 31/01/2026

Probably all of it, but I always thought of it as a Millenial thing.

020

Tim Kaiser @tkaiser.science · 29/01/2026

Viele gute Punkte im Beitrag. Ich frage mich, wann die Nachholeffekte, die da vermutet werden, zurückgehen und die Prävalenz sich stabilisiert. Müsste ja dann ähnlich aussehen wie bei Linkshändern.

030

Tim Kaiser @tkaiser.science · 12/01/2026

Symbolic representation of Ian with his first data set (apple)

020

Tim Kaiser @tkaiser.science · 12/01/2026

[52 Folgen in der Download-Warteschlange] IYKYK

010

Tim Kaiser @tkaiser.science · 09/01/2026

One is associated with reduced all-cause mortality, one makes you feel warm and fuzzy for a couple of minutes

160

Tim Kaiser @tkaiser.science · 06/01/2026

The next piece of oligarch technology will be replaced soon… @fairphone.com

3110

Tim Kaiser @tkaiser.science · 06/01/2026

The three "waves" of psychotherapy are often described as historical fact, which is astonishing when you consider that they represent the distorted and sometimes straight up incorrect view of a single individual (Hayes).

172

Tim Kaiser @tkaiser.science · 04/01/2026

Selection bias makes best selling books

000

Tim Kaiser @tkaiser.science · 28/12/2025

post a perfect album from the 90s that isn't nirvana, pearl jam, soundgarden, or alice in chains

Heaven or Las Vegas is the sixth studio album by the Scottish rock band Cocteau Twins, released on 17 September 1990 by 4AD. Recorded at September Sound in Twickenham, it followed the band's 1988 album Blue Bell Knoll and was their second release to be issued in the United States through a distribution deal with Capitol Records.

070

Tim Kaiser @tkaiser.science · 16/12/2025

If you want to read something beautiful over the holidays www.stelliform.press/index.php/pr... Or listen: libro.fm/audiobooks/9...

010

Tim Kaiser @tkaiser.science · 11/12/2025

Right on time for the upcoming holidays, and an upcoming paper, this arrived 🙂

4191

Tim Kaiser @tkaiser.science · 09/12/2025

You will be visited by three spirits

1110

Tim Kaiser @tkaiser.science · 08/12/2025

This is indeed a good example of an observational study and an appropriate way of dealing with the difficulties of causal inference in such designs. It might even be the first clinical psych observational outcome study specifying its estimand(?)

2130

Tim Kaiser @tkaiser.science · 06/12/2025

Da hat sich schon wieder eine Satirepartei gegründet

110

Tim Kaiser @tkaiser.science · 26/11/2025

Post a famous bathroom scene

010

Tim Kaiser @tkaiser.science · 24/11/2025

This is new: the APA site of a certain journal tells me that my institution doesn't have access to it. I then look for other PDF sources and find that, on ResearchGate, the very same paper can be downloaded for free *because my institution is subscribed*.

030

Tim Kaiser @tkaiser.science · 24/11/2025

In the photo, the Batman costume also looks extremely discreet. It would hardly be noticeable in Berlin.

020

Tim Kaiser @tkaiser.science · 24/11/2025

If you think your caffeine tolerance is so high that you only drink it to prevent withdrawal symptoms, this brand will be a completely new experience...

030

Tim Kaiser @tkaiser.science · 20/11/2025

Important figure from the post

2184

Tim Kaiser @tkaiser.science · 11/11/2025

We found five structurally ergodic clusters. Two large clusters (about 57% of the sample) and three smaller clusters that were more heterogeneous. We then characterized subgroups using a set of baseline patient characteristics.

130