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Our model predicts Victorian premier Ben Carroll has a 66.8% chance of losing his seat at the state election, if held today. ➡️ theswingison.com/track-polls/... #auspol #springst #elections #polling

Poll tracker – VIC 2026 state election – The Swing Is On

Victorian state primary vote polling since the 2022 election, with a 28-day rolling poll average.

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Based on opinion polls, our model predicts Labor has a 89.0% chance of retaining government – if the next New South Wales state election were held today. 👇 Check out the model and the latest polls for yourself: theswingison.com/track-polls/...

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Based on opinion polls, our model predicts the Coalition has a 77.5% chance of winning government off Labor – if the next Victorian state election were held today. 👇 Check out the model and the latest polls for yourself: theswingison.com/track-polls/...

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Based on opinion polls, our model predicts Labor has a 73.1% chance of retaining government – if the next Australian federal election were held today. 👇 Check out the model and the latest polls for yourself: theswingison.com/track-polls

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The Swing Is On @theswingison.com · 05/09/2026

NEW FEATURE: Build your hypothetical upper and lower house results for the next federal and state elections – and share your prediction! 👉 Check it out on our website: theswingison.com/create-predi...

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With One Nation on the rise, there’s more competitive seats than ever in Victoria this November. Here’s where our model shows the closest seats and regions to keep an eye out for on election night. By Lawrence De Pellegrin: theswingison.com/analysis/vic...

The seats to watch in Victoria this November

With One Nation on the rise, there's more competitive seats than ever in Victoria. Here's where the model expects the tightest contests on election night.

The Swing Is On @theswingison.com · 05/09/2026

The seats to watch in Victoria this November

With One Nation on the rise, there's more competitive seats than ever in Victoria. Here's where the model expects the tightest contests on election night.

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The Swing Is On @theswingison.com · 04/09/2026

New Vic premier Ben Carroll is on track to LOSE his seat at the November state election. Our model gives him just a 30.6% chance of retaining his seat of Niddrie – if the election were today. The Coalition has a 50.8% chance of flipping his seat, with PHON an outside chance.

Our model gives the Coalition a 72.2% chance of returning to power for the first time since 2014 if the election were held today – but a minority Coalition government supported by One Nation is the most likely single outcome at a 4-in-10 chance.

The Swing Is On’s VIC state seats update: 🔵 Coalition: 41 (+13) 🔴 Labor: 31 (-25) 🟠 One Nation: 11 (+11) 🟢 Greens: 5 (+1) ⚪️ Other: 0 (=) Based on live polling aggregate (not a poll). +/- 2022 state election. Full model: theswingison.com/track-polls/vic26

Poll tracker – VIC 2026 state election – The Swing Is On

Victorian state primary vote polling since the 2022 election, with a 28-day rolling poll average.

Our model gives Labor a 73.6% chance of returning to government if the election were held today – with a roughly 1-in-2 chance of a Labor majority government being the most likely outcome.

The Swing Is On’s federal seats update: 🔴 Labor: 74 (-20) 🟠 One Nation: 37 (+37) 🔵 Coalition: 28 (-15) 🟢 Greens: 3 (+2) ⚪️ Other: 8 (-4) Based on live polling aggregate (not a poll). +/- 2025 federal election. Full model: theswingison.com/track-polls

Poll tracker – Federal 2027/28 election – The Swing Is On

Australian federal primary vote polling since the 2025 election, with a 28-day rolling poll average.

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And a note of caution - since most pollsters lump everyone other than the 4 big parties into "Other", modelling individual seats with competitive independents becomes more rough estimation than anything else. The model is better at the bigger picture.

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The theory goes that many minor party and independent voters may forget they exist outside of elections, when media attention is so dominated by the bigger parties – so "Other" dips. It's likely this would bounce back after an election when independents can build/rebuild local name recognition.

It's a decent suggestion but there's a reason we don't – because the model is a nowcast (if an election were held today), rather than a forecast. It would be dishonest to ignore the actual signals shown reported by public opinion polls.

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🗳️ NSW state polling & seat nowcast 🗳️ 🔴 Labor: 30.7% (53 seats) 🟠 One Nation: 24.8% (8 seats) 🔵 Coalition: 22.8% (22 seats) 🟢 Greens: 11.5% (3 seats) ⚪ Other: 10.7% (7 seats) Based on The Swing Is On's live poll aggregate – no polls our own. #auspol #elections #polling

While One Nation comes out short at just 3 seats in the current model, they remain competitive in another 31 close seats – similar to the SA state election earlier this year. 👀 Check out our latest article to learn more about how this works in VIC: theswingison.com/analysis/one...

How a 22% primary vote could only land 3 seats in Victoria

One Nation is polling 22% in Victoria, yet the model gives them just 3 seats. Why preferential single-member seats punish a consistent third place.

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With more than half of all seats (52 of 88) considered "close" at this stage, the model is very volatile. That's what 3 parties in a 22-29% polling range will deliver.

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Since our last update, Ben Carroll replaced Jacinta Allan as premier and Labor leader – and Warren Pickering was chosen as One Nation's state leader. The topline? The Coalition is edging closer to majority government. But it's not done and dusted by any means.

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🗳️ VIC state polling & seat nowcast 🗳️ 🔵 Coalition: 28.5% (43 seats) 🔴 Labor: 25.5% (37 seats) 🟠 One Nation: 22.3% (3 seats) 🟢 Greens: 13.2% (5 seats) ⚪ Other: 10.5% (0 seats) Based on The Swing Is On's live poll aggregate – no polls our own. #auspol #elections #polling

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Meanwhile, a declining Other vote (usually happens in polling far from election time) sees the crossbench shrinking – take that finding with a grain of salt. 🧂

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The two traditional major parties – Labor and the Coalition – have been improving slightly in the last few weeks, but One Nation remains on track for official Opposition status at 40 seats.

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🗳️ AUS federal polling & seat nowcast 🗳️ 🔴 Labor: 29.0% (82 seats) 🔵 Coalition: 21.2% (21 seats) 🟠 One Nation: 27.2% (40 seats) 🟢 Greens: 12.8% (2 seats) ⚪ Other: 9.8% (5 seats) Based on The Swing Is On's live poll aggregate – no polls our own. #auspol #elections #polling

The Swing Is On @theswingison.com · 05/08/2026

A handful of followers have asked: how is One Nation polling at 22.2% in VIC, but our model only gives them 3 seats?! It's a fair question – and the answer shows the volatility of single-member seats in Australian preferential voting. Read the analysis here → theswingison.com/analysis/one...

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Our updated Victorian state poll aggregate after recent Newspoll, Redbridge and Freshwater additions: 🔵 Coalition: 29.8% (47 seats) 🔴 Labor: 25.4% (33 seats) 🟠 One Nation: 21.6% (3 seats) 🟢 Greens: 13.5% (5 seats) ⚪️ Other: 9.7% (0 seats) The Coalition on track for a slim majority.

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The Swing Is On @theswingison.com · 25/07/2026

Our model predicts a minority 🔵 Coalition govt if the next VIC state election were held today. Do you think the 🔵 Coalition would form a govt with 🟠 One Nation to oust the Allan Labor govt ? Check out latest polls and simulate the next election at theswingison.com. #auspol #vicpol #elections

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The Swing Is On @theswingison.com · 25/07/2026

Our model predicts a narrow 4-seat 🔴 Labor majority if the next Australian federal election were held today. Check out the latest polls and simulate the next election for yourself at theswingison.com. #auspol #polling #elections

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The Swing Is On @theswingison.com · 13/07/2026

More #auspol Lower House seats are now 3-cornered contests or a fight between 2nd and 3rd at the final elimination count. So we’ve introduced an updated “close seats” logic in our election visualisations: ⚖️ Close final pair only 📐 3-cornered contests 🥊 In-bloc contests

Totally – however One Nation have given every indication that they will run in every Victorian Lower House seat in November, and did in last year’s Fed for all Victorian seats. We’ve made an (I think) reasonable assumption they will for State. Polls always should be taken with a grain of salt. 🧂

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Thanks for sharing Kevin and glad you found the model interesting! Many known unknowns about exactly where the PHON vote will materialise given they got just 0.3% in VIC 2022 with 5 candidates. But certainly lines up with the theory of them gaining strongly in outer metro areas.

Kevin Bonham @kevinbonham.bsky.social · 11/07/2026

Reposted by The Swing Is On

Interesting very detailed model (access forecasts via "Model a Poll" tab) - suggests that on current polling Labor would lose lower house Vic state seats mainly to ON and especially in W Metro and SE Metro LegCo areas.

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Here's our modelled seat count for the next Victorian state election since 2022 based on poll averages. The VIC Coalition is polling +8pp vs the fed Coalition nationally – so just 7 seats off a majority on current numbers: 🔵 Coalition 38 🔴 Labor 25 🟠 One Nation 20 🟢 Greens 5

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Our VIC 2026 state election models are HERE! 🎉 Explore our poll tracker, 88-seat model and preferences simulator for yourself → theswingison.com #auspol #vicpol

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📊 To explore our other election modelling tools – or check out the full breakdown, interactive maps, and methodology – head to: theswingison.com

Interactive tools for modelling Australian federal elections: preference flows, seat-by-seat analysis, and demographic voter profiling.

The Swing Is On

The demo divide. Among the 15 most Christian electorates, 11 flip – all to One Nation. Among the 15 with the most overseas-born parents, zero change hands. One Nation's gains map onto older, more Christian, more Aus-born, home-owning communities.

The traditional 2-party system has been replaced. In 2025, 114 seats came down to Coalition vs Labor. On current numbers, just 1 does in our model. 110 seats are now Labor vs One Nation 2CP. The contest that defined a century of Australian elections has ceased to exist.

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The state breakdown. Queensland is One Nation country – holding 20 of 30 seats. NSW sees 17 One Nation gains, Victoria 11, WA 4. In NSW, the nation's biggest state, the Liberals don't hold a single seat – the only Coalition seat held is for the Nationals.

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Where the seats are changing. The Coalition is wiped out from the few metro seats they still hold – its 9 survivors are all rural or provincial. One Nation's gains from Labor are widespread but most concentrated in outer-suburban, provincial and rural seats.

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What the House of Reps could look like. Labor leads with 70 seats – 6 short of a majority – but could govern with Greens and crossbench support, giving a left-of-centre bloc of 83 (with 8 left-leaning others). One Nation goes from 0 to 55 seats. The Coalition goes from 43 to 9.

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The Swing Is On @theswingison.com · 21/06/2026

Track a Poll aggregate update: One Nation leads nationally at 29.6%, ahead of Labor (27.4%) and the Coalition (18.9%). We project 59 seats changing hands – One Nation wins 55, the Coalition collapses to 9, and Labor falls to 70. 🔗Full analysis: theswingison.com/analysis/tracker-update-27-june-2026

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🔴 Labor on track for minority at next election for 1st time this term. The Swing Is On’s election model on today’s polling aggregate would result in: 🔴 Labor 70 🟠 One Nation 51 🔵 Coalition 13 🟢 Greens 5 ⚪️ Other, Left-leaning 8 ⚪️ Other, Right-leaning 3 #auspol

The Swing Is On @theswingison.com · 15/06/2026

🚨 NEW FEATURE: Track a Poll is now here – check out the moving average from recent Australian public opinion polls, and simulate the next election using The Swing Is On's preferences tool. Check it out at theswingison.com/track-a-poll #auspol #theswingison

🪒 Almost 1-in-3 seats are VERY close shaves. Say goodbye to a clear overall winner on Election Night... 👋

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Also... 🟢 The huge collapse in the Labor and Coalition joint primary vote (now polling under 50%) leads to some surprising winners from unlikely preference distributions – the Greens come up strong with 5 wins off Labor. We even see 4 Greens vs One Nation 2CPs!

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🟠 One Nation's gains would annihilate the Coalition nationally and cut deeply into Labor heartland. With a primary vote inching over 30%, they pass a threshold point where they can now reach and win a swathe of new 2CP contests. A pathway to government doesn't seem far-fetched.

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