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The Swing Is On

@theswingison.com
78 followers 68 following 84 posts

Interactive models for Australian elections 🗳️ theswingison.com

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The Swing Is On @theswingison.com · 02/10/2026
Here’s the 10 VIC state seats our model shows as closest based on current polls – all won by Labor at the 2022 state election. With One Nation polling at similar levels to the two traditional major parties – Labor and the Coalition – there’s set to be many more three (or more) cornered contests.
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The Swing Is On @theswingison.com · 01/10/2026
And one more we missed: Northern Victoria – another stronger Coalition area, but keep an eye on Bendigo!
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The Swing Is On @theswingison.com · 01/10/2026
And finally Western Victoria – a real mixed bag for Labor, the Coalition and One Nation.
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The Swing Is On @theswingison.com · 01/10/2026
Western Metro – where One Nation is possibly most likely to eat into Labor heartland.
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The Swing Is On @theswingison.com · 01/10/2026
Southern Metro – home to both wealthier Coalition heartland seats and a handful of real toss-ups.
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The Swing Is On @theswingison.com · 01/10/2026
South-Eastern Metro – could be home to some of Labor’s biggest losses after a huge sweep in 2022.
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The Swing Is On @theswingison.com · 01/10/2026
Northern Metro – the most progressive region, with solid Greens winning chances in almost half the seats.
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The Swing Is On @theswingison.com · 01/10/2026
North-Eastern Metro – arguably the most toss-up region in the state, with chances for all of Labor, the Coalition and One Nation.
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The Swing Is On @theswingison.com · 01/10/2026
Eastern Victoria – the safest region for the Coalition.
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The Swing Is On @theswingison.com · 01/10/2026
🟢 The Greens have an outside chance or better in 8 seats on today’s polling for the VIC state election: Very likely: Brunswick, Richmond, Melbourne (3) Favoured: Northcote, Prahran (2) Outside chance: Footscray, Pascoe Vale, Albert Park (3) Full model: theswingison.com/track-polls/...
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The Swing Is On @theswingison.com · 21/09/2026
🔴 The Labor frontbench could be decimated at the Victorian state election in November. New premier Ben Carroll has the worst chances – with Labor having just a 34.3% chance of retaining his seat of Niddrie. More at: theswingison.com/track-polls/...
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The Swing Is On @theswingison.com · 18/09/2026
Based on opinion polls, our model predicts Labor has a 89.0% chance of retaining government – if the next New South Wales state election were held today. 👇 Check out the model and the latest polls for yourself: theswingison.com/track-polls/...
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The Swing Is On @theswingison.com · 18/09/2026
Based on opinion polls, our model predicts the Coalition has a 77.5% chance of winning government off Labor – if the next Victorian state election were held today. 👇 Check out the model and the latest polls for yourself: theswingison.com/track-polls/...
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The Swing Is On @theswingison.com · 18/09/2026
Based on opinion polls, our model predicts Labor has a 73.1% chance of retaining government – if the next Australian federal election were held today. 👇 Check out the model and the latest polls for yourself: theswingison.com/track-polls
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The Swing Is On @theswingison.com · 18/09/2026
NEW FEATURE: Build your hypothetical upper and lower house results for the next federal and state elections – and share your prediction! 👉 Check it out on our website: theswingison.com/create-predi...
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The Swing Is On @theswingison.com · 04/09/2026
New Vic premier Ben Carroll is on track to LOSE his seat at the November state election. Our model gives him just a 30.6% chance of retaining his seat of Niddrie – if the election were today. The Coalition has a 50.8% chance of flipping his seat, with PHON an outside chance.
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The Swing Is On @theswingison.com · 25/07/2026
Our model predicts a minority 🔵 Coalition govt if the next VIC state election were held today. Do you think the 🔵 Coalition would form a govt with 🟠 One Nation to oust the Allan Labor govt ? Check out latest polls and simulate the next election at theswingison.com. #auspol #vicpol #elections
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The Swing Is On @theswingison.com · 25/07/2026
Our model predicts a narrow 4-seat 🔴 Labor majority if the next Australian federal election were held today. Check out the latest polls and simulate the next election for yourself at theswingison.com. #auspol #polling #elections
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The Swing Is On @theswingison.com · 13/07/2026
More #auspol Lower House seats are now 3-cornered contests or a fight between 2nd and 3rd at the final elimination count. So we’ve introduced an updated “close seats” logic in our election visualisations: ⚖️ Close final pair only 📐 3-cornered contests 🥊 In-bloc contests
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The Swing Is On @theswingison.com · 11/07/2026
Here's our modelled seat count for the next Victorian state election since 2022 based on poll averages. The VIC Coalition is polling +8pp vs the fed Coalition nationally – so just 7 seats off a majority on current numbers: 🔵 Coalition 38 🔴 Labor 25 🟠 One Nation 20 🟢 Greens 5
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The Swing Is On @theswingison.com · 11/07/2026
Our VIC 2026 state election models are HERE! 🎉 Explore our poll tracker, 88-seat model and preferences simulator for yourself → theswingison.com #auspol #vicpol
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The Swing Is On @theswingison.com · 27/06/2026
The demo divide. Among the 15 most Christian electorates, 11 flip – all to One Nation. Among the 15 with the most overseas-born parents, zero change hands. One Nation's gains map onto older, more Christian, more Aus-born, home-owning communities.
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The Swing Is On @theswingison.com · 27/06/2026
The traditional 2-party system has been replaced. In 2025, 114 seats came down to Coalition vs Labor. On current numbers, just 1 does in our model. 110 seats are now Labor vs One Nation 2CP. The contest that defined a century of Australian elections has ceased to exist.
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The Swing Is On @theswingison.com · 27/06/2026
The state breakdown. Queensland is One Nation country – holding 20 of 30 seats. NSW sees 17 One Nation gains, Victoria 11, WA 4. In NSW, the nation's biggest state, the Liberals don't hold a single seat – the only Coalition seat held is for the Nationals.
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The Swing Is On @theswingison.com · 27/06/2026
Where the seats are changing. The Coalition is wiped out from the few metro seats they still hold – its 9 survivors are all rural or provincial. One Nation's gains from Labor are widespread but most concentrated in outer-suburban, provincial and rural seats.
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The Swing Is On @theswingison.com · 27/06/2026
What the House of Reps could look like. Labor leads with 70 seats – 6 short of a majority – but could govern with Greens and crossbench support, giving a left-of-centre bloc of 83 (with 8 left-leaning others). One Nation goes from 0 to 55 seats. The Coalition goes from 43 to 9.
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The Swing Is On @theswingison.com · 27/06/2026
Track a Poll aggregate update: One Nation leads nationally at 29.6%, ahead of Labor (27.4%) and the Coalition (18.9%). We project 59 seats changing hands – One Nation wins 55, the Coalition collapses to 9, and Labor falls to 70. 🔗Full analysis: theswingison.com/analysis/tracker-update-27-june-2026
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The Swing Is On @theswingison.com · 21/06/2026
🔴 Labor on track for minority at next election for 1st time this term. The Swing Is On’s election model on today’s polling aggregate would result in: 🔴 Labor 70 🟠 One Nation 51 🔵 Coalition 13 🟢 Greens 5 ⚪️ Other, Left-leaning 8 ⚪️ Other, Right-leaning 3 #auspol
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The Swing Is On @theswingison.com · 15/06/2026
🚨 NEW FEATURE: Track a Poll is now here – check out the moving average from recent Australian public opinion polls, and simulate the next election using The Swing Is On's preferences tool. Check it out at theswingison.com/track-a-poll #auspol #theswingison
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The Swing Is On @theswingison.com · 13/06/2026
🪒 Almost 1-in-3 seats are VERY close shaves. Say goodbye to a clear overall winner on Election Night... 👋
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The Swing Is On @theswingison.com · 13/06/2026
🟠 One Nation's gains would annihilate the Coalition nationally and cut deeply into Labor heartland. With a primary vote inching over 30%, they pass a threshold point where they can now reach and win a swathe of new 2CP contests. A pathway to government doesn't seem far-fetched.
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The Swing Is On @theswingison.com · 13/06/2026
🪦 Just 1 out of 150 seats remains a traditional "Labor vs Coalition" contest. RIP to the 2PP.
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The Swing Is On @theswingison.com · 13/06/2026
A surge to One Nation would see them pick up a staggering 62 seats and official Opposition status, while Labor would be pushed to 68 seats – 8 short of a majority. The Coalition is overshadowed even on the crossbench.
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The Swing Is On @theswingison.com · 13/06/2026
COALITION OBLIVION: If the 2025 Australian federal election were re-run on the most recent polls, here's what we model it to look like. 👇🧵
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The Swing Is On @theswingison.com · 08/06/2026
The brand-new Build a Voter tool and much more can be found exclusively at: theswingison.com
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The Swing Is On @theswingison.com · 08/06/2026
STEP 3: Generate your voter and see who they were most likely to have voted for at the 2025 federal election! Including a full party breakdown. 📊
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The Swing Is On @theswingison.com · 08/06/2026
STEP 2: What makes your voter special? Set up to two Census demographic variables – pick from 15+ variables, including age, country of birth, education, housing status and more. 🕵️‍♀️🔍
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The Swing Is On @theswingison.com · 08/06/2026
STEP 1: Make your voter! You can set the location to nationwide, or a specific state/territory, geography or electorate. 🌏
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The Swing Is On @theswingison.com · 08/06/2026
BUILD A VOTER: Launch feature from The Swing Is On! 🏗️🥸 #auspol We all like to think we're free thinkers. The data suggests that's... maybe not always the case. 🧵 theswingison.com
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The Swing Is On @theswingison.com · 08/06/2026
All this and more at our brand-new website. Check it out for yourself: theswingison.com
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The Swing Is On @theswingison.com · 08/06/2026
STEP 3: Check out the detailed preference flow round-by-round. Who was eliminated? Where did their votes go? All modelled from real 2025 federal election preferences. 📈
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The Swing Is On @theswingison.com · 08/06/2026
STEP 2: Simulate that single seat election in real time to predict the winner with a detailed confidence rating. 📊
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The Swing Is On @theswingison.com · 08/06/2026
STEP 1: Enter your candidates, their party classification and primary votes – or pre-load the table with the actual 2025 votes from any of the 150 federal House of Reps seats. 🗳️
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The Swing Is On @theswingison.com · 08/06/2026
RUN A RACE: Launch feature from The Swing Is On! 🏃💨 Been wanting your own custom #auspol election simulator tool? Wait no longer! 🧵 theswingison.com
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The Swing Is On @theswingison.com · 08/06/2026
Want to try it out for yourself? Check out our new site: theswingison.com
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The Swing Is On @theswingison.com · 08/06/2026
STEP 3: Explore the closest seats and those changing hands in your simulation with the full preference distribution – modelled from real 2025 federal preference flows. 📊
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The Swing Is On @theswingison.com · 08/06/2026
STEP 2: Simulate the next Australian federal election with your applied swings and watch the magic happen! 🔮✨
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The Swing Is On @theswingison.com · 08/06/2026
STEP 1: Add your primary vote swing from a source to a destination party classification. You can also add location and Census demo filters. 🌏
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The Swing Is On @theswingison.com · 08/06/2026
MODEL AN ELECTION: Launch feature from The Swing Is On! 🗳️ This brand-new #auspol tool gives you the ability to simulate a uniform swing nationally, or by a specific location or demographic. 🧵 theswingison.com
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