The Swing Is On @theswingison.com · 8h🟢 The Greens have an outside chance or better in 8 seats on today’s polling for the VIC state election: Very likely: Brunswick, Richmond, Melbourne (3) Favoured: Northcote, Prahran (2) Outside chance: Footscray, Pascoe Vale, Albert Park (3) Full model: theswingison.com/track-polls/... 043
The Swing Is On @theswingison.com · 21/09/2026🔴 The Labor frontbench could be decimated at the Victorian state election in November. New premier Ben Carroll has the worst chances – with Labor having just a 34.3% chance of retaining his seat of Niddrie. More at: theswingison.com/track-polls/... 000
The Swing Is On @theswingison.com · 18/09/2026Our model predicts Victorian premier Ben Carroll has a 66.8% chance of losing his seat at the state election, if held today. ➡️ theswingison.com/track-polls/... #auspol #springst #elections #pollingtheswingison.comPoll tracker – VIC 2026 state election – The Swing Is OnVictorian state primary vote polling since the 2022 election, with a 28-day rolling poll average. 001
The Swing Is On @theswingison.com · 18/09/2026Based on opinion polls, our model predicts Labor has a 89.0% chance of retaining government – if the next New South Wales state election were held today. 👇 Check out the model and the latest polls for yourself: theswingison.com/track-polls/... 000
The Swing Is On @theswingison.com · 18/09/2026Based on opinion polls, our model predicts the Coalition has a 77.5% chance of winning government off Labor – if the next Victorian state election were held today. 👇 Check out the model and the latest polls for yourself: theswingison.com/track-polls/... 000
The Swing Is On @theswingison.com · 18/09/2026Based on opinion polls, our model predicts Labor has a 73.1% chance of retaining government – if the next Australian federal election were held today. 👇 Check out the model and the latest polls for yourself: theswingison.com/track-polls 000
The Swing Is On @theswingison.com · 18/09/2026NEW FEATURE: Build your hypothetical upper and lower house results for the next federal and state elections – and share your prediction! 👉 Check it out on our website: theswingison.com/create-predi... 030
The Swing Is On @theswingison.com · 05/09/2026With One Nation on the rise, there’s more competitive seats than ever in Victoria this November. Here’s where our model shows the closest seats and regions to keep an eye out for on election night. By Lawrence De Pellegrin: theswingison.com/analysis/vic...theswingison.comThe seats to watch in Victoria this NovemberWith One Nation on the rise, there's more competitive seats than ever in Victoria. Here's where the model expects the tightest contests on election night. 010
The Swing Is On @theswingison.com · 05/09/2026With One Nation on the rise, there’s more competitive seats than ever in Victoria this November. Here’s where our model shows the closest seats and regions to keep an eye out for on election night. By Lawrence De Pellegrin: theswingison.com/analysis/vic...theswingison.comThe seats to watch in Victoria this NovemberWith One Nation on the rise, there's more competitive seats than ever in Victoria. Here's where the model expects the tightest contests on election night. 011
The Swing Is On @theswingison.com · 04/09/2026New Vic premier Ben Carroll is on track to LOSE his seat at the November state election. Our model gives him just a 30.6% chance of retaining his seat of Niddrie – if the election were today. The Coalition has a 50.8% chance of flipping his seat, with PHON an outside chance. 010
The Swing Is On @theswingison.com · 31/08/2026The Swing Is On’s VIC state seats update: 🔵 Coalition: 41 (+13) 🔴 Labor: 31 (-25) 🟠 One Nation: 11 (+11) 🟢 Greens: 5 (+1) ⚪️ Other: 0 (=) Based on live polling aggregate (not a poll). +/- 2022 state election. Full model: theswingison.com/track-polls/vic26theswingison.comPoll tracker – VIC 2026 state election – The Swing Is OnVictorian state primary vote polling since the 2022 election, with a 28-day rolling poll average. 110
The Swing Is On @theswingison.com · 31/08/2026The Swing Is On’s federal seats update: 🔴 Labor: 74 (-20) 🟠 One Nation: 37 (+37) 🔵 Coalition: 28 (-15) 🟢 Greens: 3 (+2) ⚪️ Other: 8 (-4) Based on live polling aggregate (not a poll). +/- 2025 federal election. Full model: theswingison.com/track-pollstheswingison.comPoll tracker – Federal 2027/28 election – The Swing Is OnAustralian federal primary vote polling since the 2025 election, with a 28-day rolling poll average. 120
The Swing Is On @theswingison.com · 10/08/2026Also did we mention that our NSW, QLD, SA and WA models are now live at theswingison.com? 😏theswingison.comThe Swing Is On – Australian Election ModellingInteractive tools for Australian election modelling – tracking polls, modelling preferences, simulating seat outcomes, and building voter profiles. 010
The Swing Is On @theswingison.com · 10/08/2026🗳️ NSW state polling & seat nowcast 🗳️ 🔴 Labor: 30.7% (53 seats) 🟠 One Nation: 24.8% (8 seats) 🔵 Coalition: 22.8% (22 seats) 🟢 Greens: 11.5% (3 seats) ⚪ Other: 10.7% (7 seats) Based on The Swing Is On's live poll aggregate – no polls our own. #auspol #elections #polling 010
The Swing Is On @theswingison.com · 10/08/2026🗳️ VIC state polling & seat nowcast 🗳️ 🔵 Coalition: 28.5% (43 seats) 🔴 Labor: 25.5% (37 seats) 🟠 One Nation: 22.3% (3 seats) 🟢 Greens: 13.2% (5 seats) ⚪ Other: 10.5% (0 seats) Based on The Swing Is On's live poll aggregate – no polls our own. #auspol #elections #polling 133
The Swing Is On @theswingison.com · 09/08/2026🗳️ AUS federal polling & seat nowcast 🗳️ 🔴 Labor: 29.0% (82 seats) 🔵 Coalition: 21.2% (21 seats) 🟠 One Nation: 27.2% (40 seats) 🟢 Greens: 12.8% (2 seats) ⚪ Other: 9.8% (5 seats) Based on The Swing Is On's live poll aggregate – no polls our own. #auspol #elections #polling 110
The Swing Is On @theswingison.com · 09/08/2026A handful of followers have asked: how is One Nation polling at 22.2% in VIC, but our model only gives them 3 seats?! It's a fair question – and the answer shows the volatility of single-member seats in Australian preferential voting. Read the analysis here → theswingison.com/analysis/one... 011
The Swing Is On @theswingison.com · 05/08/2026Our updated Victorian state poll aggregate after recent Newspoll, Redbridge and Freshwater additions: 🔵 Coalition: 29.8% (47 seats) 🔴 Labor: 25.4% (33 seats) 🟠 One Nation: 21.6% (3 seats) 🟢 Greens: 13.5% (5 seats) ⚪️ Other: 9.7% (0 seats) The Coalition on track for a slim majority. 011
The Swing Is On @theswingison.com · 25/07/2026Our model predicts a minority 🔵 Coalition govt if the next VIC state election were held today. Do you think the 🔵 Coalition would form a govt with 🟠 One Nation to oust the Allan Labor govt ? Check out latest polls and simulate the next election at theswingison.com. #auspol #vicpol #elections 201
The Swing Is On @theswingison.com · 25/07/2026Our model predicts a narrow 4-seat 🔴 Labor majority if the next Australian federal election were held today. Check out the latest polls and simulate the next election for yourself at theswingison.com. #auspol #polling #elections 001
The Swing Is On @theswingison.com · 13/07/2026More #auspol Lower House seats are now 3-cornered contests or a fight between 2nd and 3rd at the final elimination count. So we’ve introduced an updated “close seats” logic in our election visualisations: ⚖️ Close final pair only 📐 3-cornered contests 🥊 In-bloc contests 010
Reposted by The Swing Is OnKevin Bonham @kevinbonham.bsky.social · 11/07/2026Interesting very detailed model (access forecasts via "Model a Poll" tab) - suggests that on current polling Labor would lose lower house Vic state seats mainly to ON and especially in W Metro and SE Metro LegCo areas. 4188
The Swing Is On @theswingison.com · 11/07/2026Here's our modelled seat count for the next Victorian state election since 2022 based on poll averages. The VIC Coalition is polling +8pp vs the fed Coalition nationally – so just 7 seats off a majority on current numbers: 🔵 Coalition 38 🔴 Labor 25 🟠 One Nation 20 🟢 Greens 5 031
The Swing Is On @theswingison.com · 11/07/2026Our VIC 2026 state election models are HERE! 🎉 Explore our poll tracker, 88-seat model and preferences simulator for yourself → theswingison.com #auspol #vicpol 000
The Swing Is On @theswingison.com · 27/06/2026Track a Poll aggregate update: One Nation leads nationally at 29.6%, ahead of Labor (27.4%) and the Coalition (18.9%). We project 59 seats changing hands – One Nation wins 55, the Coalition collapses to 9, and Labor falls to 70. 🔗Full analysis: theswingison.com/analysis/tracker-update-27-june-2026 100
The Swing Is On @theswingison.com · 21/06/2026🔴 Labor on track for minority at next election for 1st time this term. The Swing Is On’s election model on today’s polling aggregate would result in: 🔴 Labor 70 🟠 One Nation 51 🔵 Coalition 13 🟢 Greens 5 ⚪️ Other, Left-leaning 8 ⚪️ Other, Right-leaning 3 #auspol 110
The Swing Is On @theswingison.com · 15/06/2026🚨 NEW FEATURE: Track a Poll is now here – check out the moving average from recent Australian public opinion polls, and simulate the next election using The Swing Is On's preferences tool. Check it out at theswingison.com/track-a-poll #auspol #theswingison 010
The Swing Is On @theswingison.com · 13/06/2026COALITION OBLIVION: If the 2025 Australian federal election were re-run on the most recent polls, here's what we model it to look like. 👇🧵 100
The Swing Is On @theswingison.com · 08/06/2026BUILD A VOTER: Launch feature from The Swing Is On! 🏗️🥸 #auspol We all like to think we're free thinkers. The data suggests that's... maybe not always the case. 🧵 theswingison.com 111
The Swing Is On @theswingison.com · 08/06/2026RUN A RACE: Launch feature from The Swing Is On! 🏃💨 Been wanting your own custom #auspol election simulator tool? Wait no longer! 🧵 theswingison.com 111
The Swing Is On @theswingison.com · 08/06/2026MODEL AN ELECTION: Launch feature from The Swing Is On! 🗳️ This brand-new #auspol tool gives you the ability to simulate a uniform swing nationally, or by a specific location or demographic. 🧵 theswingison.com 122
The Swing Is On @theswingison.com · 07/06/2026LAUNCHED: The Swing Is On! 🚀 A brand new interactive toolset for election nerds to model Australian federal elections – based on actual 2025 results and Census data. Check it out → theswingison.com #auspol #theswingisontheswingison.comThe Swing Is On – Australian Election ModellingInteractive tools for modelling Australian federal elections: preference flows, seat-by-seat analysis, and demographic voter profiling. 032